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PROGRAM INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) APPRAISAL STAGE December 30, 2011 Report No.: AB6908 Operation Name Region Country Sector Operation ID Lending Instrument Borrower(s) Implementing Agency Date PID Prepared Estimated Date of Appraisal Estimated Date of Board Approval Corporate Review Decision I. Mauritius First Private Sector Competitiveness Development Policy Loan (PSC - DPL) Africa Mauritius Finance and Private Sector P126903 Development Policy Lending Government of Mauritius Ministry of Finance and Economic Development December 9, 2011 January 10, 2012 March 29, 2012 Following the corporate review, the decision was taken to proceed with the appraisal of the operation. Key development issues and rationale for Bank involvement 1. Mauritius has an impressive development record. Only a handful of countries have defied the odds, transformed their economies, sustained growth acceleration over decades and joined the ranks of middle income economies. Maintaining the status requires keeping up to the pace of reforms set by its competitors. Mauritius' ambitions are far greater as it envisions moving up the ladder and joining the ranks of upper middle-income countries. In addition, the competitiveness of the Mauritian economy is at risk amid fears of another global downturn fueled by the crisis in Europe. Accelerating reforms is the best response to emerging global uncertainties. 2. Recent economic reforms in Mauritius have continued a long tradition of economic growth and development. Since independence in 1968, Mauritius has achieved substantial economic growth of around 5 percent per annum, which has underpinned an economic transition from a predominantly agricultural economy based on sugar production toward a diversified economy structured around textile exports and tourism. However, by the mid2000s, with the erosion of its preferential trade status and rising commodity prices, it was evident that reform to further transition Mauritius from a labor-intensive economy toward a high value-added knowledge and services economy was needed. As a result, in 2006 the Government implemented a bold reform program structured around four pillars: (i) strengthening fiscal consolidation and public sector efficiency; (ii) enhancing trade competiveness; (iii) improving the investment climate; and (iv) widening opportunities. The reform was broadly successful in restoring competitiveness, and achieving economic growth and employment creation in higher value added sectors. Moreover, the reform helped to consolidate government expenditure and reversed the upward trend in public debt. This provided the necessary space to adopt temporary counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the negative impact of the global financial crisis in 2009-10, and the Euro crisis in 2010. 3. However, the reform agenda remains unfinished and critical constraints to economic development, particularly with regard to competitiveness agenda, have become increasingly evident. There is substantial room for improvement. The World Bank till very recently was supporting the Government’s competitiveness agenda through the Manufacturing and Services Development and Competitiveness Project, along with the Mauritius Economic Transition Project. In March 2011, the Bank was requested by the Government to cancel the two sector Investment Loans (ILs) – that were at an early stage of implementation - and prepare a new DPL. The new DPL, while focusing on competitiveness, would broaden and deepen the areas of focus in light of the evolving development priorities of the island nation. The DPL was thus deemed a more appropriate instrument for engendering the necessary policy and institutional reforms - as opposed to an IL with a focus on public investment and capacity building measures. 4. The uncertain status of the global economy and the risks this poses to Mauritius adds new urgency to reform. Global economic uncertainties pose an increasing threat to a small open economy such as Mauritius, primarily on two fronts – the fiscal position and the current account deficit. Slower global economic growth could depress domestic growth and tax revenues, yet pressure to finance government priorities would likely continue. The fiscal position remains stretched, with high public debt, which is only projected to decline by a modest amount in the medium-term. Therefore a counter-cyclical fiscal policy would be difficult to implement if these external threats materialize. This highlights the need for measures that substantially raise public sector efficiency. Additionally, current account deficits, although high, have to date been financed mostly through high Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and inflows to the financial sector, but this could quickly reverse if international financial markets deteriorate. The concentration of the country’s exports on a few markets (Europe) and products (tourism and textiles) could lead to a further deterioration of the current account deficit, which requires an acceleration of reforms to improve competitiveness and position the economy to access new markets and develop new products. 5. The support provided by this proposed DPL is instrumental in helping to overcome many of the challenges the Government faces. The proposed Private Sector Competitiveness Development Policy Loan (PSC-DPL), in an amount of US$15 million (equivalent to SDR XX), is the first in a series of two annual programmatic operations in support of the Government’s medium-term reform program that centers on competitiveness and equity as its twin pillars. 6. The Government continues to see DPLs as an important vehicle for supporting policy reform in Mauritius. While financing may be needed, it is the technical assistance, policy dialogue and additional support to reform champions that the Government most values in the World Bank engagement through DPLs. The proposed DPL is being prepared in coordination with the First Public Sector (PSP) DPL. The two DPL series are designed to be mutually reinforcing and address complementary aspects of the Government’s reform program. The PSC DPL series will focus primarily on strengthening the policy and institutional environment for private sector competitiveness, while this PSP DPL will focus primarily on the performance of the public sector. It is the combination of the reforms supported by these two DPLs that will help government improve its competitiveness and resilience; and prepare it for a next phase of rapid and inclusive economic growth. II. Proposed Objectives The development objective of the DPL programmatic operation is to strengthen the policy and institutional environment in Mauritius to support competitiveness and enterprise development. The operation will achieve this by: (i) facilitating competitiveness of enterprises; (ii) improving access to finance; and (iii) promoting Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and e-Gov for enhancing competitiveness and transparency. The proposed DPL is consistent with the CPS objectives presented to the Board in October 2006 and the CPS Progress Report of May 2011. The proposed DPL is aligned with four CPS pillars, in particular improving competitiveness and investment climate along with inclusion and fiscal consolidation. The DPL operation is well aligned to the new Africa Strategy that focuses on competitiveness and employment as one of its two themes. III. Operation Description The proposed DPL, in an amount of US$15 million is the first in a series of two annual programmatic operations in support of the Government’s medium-term reform program. The development objective of the programmatic series is to strengthen the policy and institutional environment in Mauritius to support competitiveness and enterprise development. The DPL series is aligned with the budget cycle, which is the primary vehicle used by the government for introducing new policy initiatives. There will be two DPLs in this series, one in 2012 and one in 2013. The DPL series takes a pragmatic approach to support the policy agenda over a two year period in which realistic results can be defined and achieved. The approach is to focus on those reforms that can be completed in the short-term while building the necessary foundations for broader reform over the medium-term. The DPL series is the principal instrument identified in the Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy for supporting the government’s reform program. For each of these pillars, prior actions have been identified that create the underpinnings to support the reform processes. The specific measures that have been agreed as prior actions for the first DPL are presented in Annex 1. IV. Tentative financing Borrower International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Borrower/Recipient Others (specify) V. 0 15 Tranches (if applicable) ($m.) First Tranche Second Tranche Etc. Total VI. 15 15 Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 7. The government, represented by the Financial Secretary at the MoFED, and the World Bank, represented by the co-task team leaders, will formally meet to jointly review the progress of the two complementary DPLs - PSP DPL and PSP DPL programs - together with other Government and World Bank representatives as appropriate. The implementation of the loan will require close coordination between the Bank and the respective institutions responsible for the implementation of the DPL. These include the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, Ministry of Business, Enterprise and Cooperatives, Ministry of ICT, the Registrar of Companies, the Registrar General and the Central Bank, all of which will provide the requisite baseline data from which to measure outcomes by the end of the program. MoFED will assist in the coordination of information reporting on the program’s monitoring indicators. These will be tracked, discussed and assessed among the Bank team and implementing agencies both by staff based in the field and during the DPL missions. Periodic monitoring will take place through field missions and through staff based at the Bank’s country office and an implementation report will be prepared every six months for discussion with the World Bank. VII. Risks and Risk Mitigation 8. The implementation of the proposed reform program entails a number of risks: (a) the challenge of maintaining macroeconomic stability as a result of uncertain global developments; (b) a slowdown in the momentum of reforms, exacerbated by the withdrawal of one of the parties from the government coalition in July 2011; and (c) limited institutional capacity within sector ministries to lead and implement the reforms. The details of these risks and the proposed mitigation measures are provided below. 9. The first and perhaps most important risk is that macroeconomic stability may come under stress given uncertain global economic developments, especially pertaining to the European economies to which Mauritius remains highly exposed. Global economic uncertainties continue to present a significant threat to a small open economy such as Mauritius, primarily on two fronts – the fiscal position and the current account deficit. Slower global economic growth would depress domestic growth and tax revenues, yet pressure to finance government priorities would likely continue. The fiscal position remains stretched, with high public debt, which is only projected to decline by a modest amount in the medium-term baseline scenario. This would make it hard to implement counter-cyclical policies should some of these external threats materialize. Also, current account deficits, although high, have been adequately financed mostly through high FDI and inflows to the financial sector. This however could quickly reverse if international financial markets deteriorate. Finally, the concentration of the country’s exports on a few markets (Europe) and products (tourism and textiles) and its large share of imported commodities could further deteriorate the current account deficit. 10. This said, the Government has the means and tools to cope with external economic uncertainties while a firm commitment will be needed to rein in public expenditure if a substantial slowdown materializes. On the external front, the current level of foreign exchange reserves provides a buffer against a potential deterioration in the balance of payments. Mauritius’ floating exchange rate also facilitates correction of external imbalances in the medium term. The recent trends of an export reorientation toward new markets (i.e. Asia and Africa) and new products will also help. On the fiscal front, if the global economy slows down and the growth in public revenues eases, the fiscal deficit could deteriorate to levels significantly above the government’s baseline projection of 3.8 percent of GDP. The Government is mindful of these risks. A wider deficit (up to 1.2 percentage points of GDP) could be financed by the recently created National Resilience Fund, which used public savings from 2011 and before. Should revenues dip further, additional adjustment would require either a slowdown in infrastructure implementation and/or an acceleration of efficiency gains in the public sector, which should be manageable but require firm commitment. Furthermore, the relatively large percentage of debt that is maturing highlights the vulnerability of public debt to the performance of the domestic financial sector, even though roll-over risks are currently low, given the fact that the majority of debt is domestic and there is an excess liquidity in domestic capital markets. 11. The second risk is political risk that may affect the pace of the reform program. This relates to the political (in)stability following the withdrawal of one faction from the ruling coalition, in July of this year, with the government now having a relatively slim Parliamentary majority. This may pose potential implications on a slowdown in the momentum of or the effective blockage of the reforms by certain stakeholders. The private sector reforms supported by this DPL program will have a redistributive effect, sometimes eliminating the rents, subsidies and privileges of certain groups. The Government may find it difficult to overcome some of these vested interests, some of which are well organized and influential. This is particularly true since many of the reforms may only pay dividends in the medium term while costs will certainly be evident in the short term. 12. There are several ways to mitigate this risk. A slim majority is not unprecedented in Mauritius and there is no reason to assume that the current majority will not be able to complete its current term. Nonetheless, to the extent that the proposed program has been designed to coincide with the remainder of the current majority’s term of office, a slim majority presents a risk – albeit manageable – which needs to be recognized. First, the Government’s focus on growth of SMEs shall support its inclusion agenda. Moreover over the medium term the acceleration reforms for engendering competitiveness and growth will generate better conditions for job creation, Second, the Government’s stress on strengthening the safety net, primarily by enhancing programs under the NEF but also potentially Social Aid, may provide immediate relief to the most vulnerable, thus overcoming their resistance to some of the reforms. Third, better communication will be key to building consensus around the reforms, using visits to Mauritius by high level practitioners and management to raise awareness and understanding about the reforms and their benefits, both within the Cabinet and more broadly. 13. The third risk is the issue of corruption which has been at the center in the national debate for the past several months. Allegations of corruption are the focus of multiple investigations by the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC). The latest political crisis was the outcome of such an investigation reaching the highest level of government. Corruption could well be a major impediment to investments. This risk is mitigated by the fact the government appears to be supportive of ICAC and respectful of its independence. 14. The fourth risk is that sector ministries might not have sufficient institutional capacity to implement the reforms. Compared to the previous DPL program in which MoFED played an active role in leading and coordinating the reform, this new set of reforms will be led in many cases by sector ministries. This will involve a broader set of stakeholders, which means that building and broadening consensus around the reform agenda will be essential. Institutional capacity of sector ministries to design and implement these sector reforms may be limited, particularly in the newly created ministries. 15. The Bank and the Government have signed a Services Agreement for Reimbursable Technical Assistance (RTA) to support institutional capacity. This RTA will complement the Bank’s program and allow line ministries to enhance their institutional capacity where needed. Additionally, the DPL itself will be a way to build bridges between the different ministries involved in the reform program, thereby enhancing coordination. The Bank analytical work program will support these reform areas while enhancing institutional capacity of sector ministries. In addition, this analytical work program has been coordinated with other Development Partners to leverage limited resources and to focus on areas that are more relevant for achieving impact. VIII. Poverty and Social Impacts and Environment Aspects Poverty and Social Impacts 16. The DPL prior actions are unlikely to harm the poor, while several prior actions have the potential to deliver positive impacts on poverty over the medium term. Both the improvement of investment climate, strengthening of small and medium enterprise (SME) programs and improving access to finance are expected to have significant, if indirect, poverty and social benefits. The measures aimed at raising private sector competitiveness and increasing investment, including foreign direct investment (FDI), are designed to support a virtuous cycle of growth, employment generation and productivity gains. Reform measures supported by the three pillars are targeted at decreasing business costs and creating better conditions for private local and foreign investments and ultimately leading to job creation. 17. Supported policies under this first operation will not have a significant distributional impact. However, the restructuring of the Development Bank of Mauritius (DBM) could have a potentially negative distributional impact on workers and hence on poverty levels. In practice it is highly unlikely that such impact will materialize as the employment impacts of these measures are limited. One third of the three hundred employees of the DBM are involved in the core banking business and will most probably retain their employment, another one third of the work force is aged 55 and above, and might be incentivized to take a voluntary retirement scheme; losing a job might not necessarily result in an income shock for their households. As regards the rest of the workforce, the specific risks will be clearly identified during the due diligence carried out by professional transaction advisors and formal measures to mitigate the employment shock on redundant workers will be put in place by ensuring that (i) appropriate clauses are included in the divestiture contracts, (ii) proper budgeting are made to compensate retrenched workers according to the law, and (iii) a retraining and re-skilling program is put in place through the Placement and Training Program under the National Empowerment Foundation. The World Bank is supporting the strengthening of active labor market programs of the NEF under the Public Sector Efficiency DPL. The rationalization of SME programs will improve the capacity of the Government of Mauritius (GoM) to provide targeted business development services while at the same time reallocating workers where they might be more productive in an attempt to improve efficiency. These reforms will yield direct benefits to lower income segments of the population Environment Aspects 18. The DPL prior actions are unlikely to harm the poor, while several prior actions have the potential to deliver positive impacts on poverty over the medium term. Both the improvement of investment climate, strengthening of small and medium enterprise (SME) programs and improving access to finance are expected to have significant, if indirect, poverty and social benefits. The measures aimed at raising private sector competitiveness and increasing investment, including foreign direct investment (FDI), are designed to support a virtuous cycle of growth, employment generation and productivity gains. Reform measures supported by the three pillars are targeted at decreasing business costs and creating better conditions for private local and foreign investments and ultimately leading to job creation. IX. Contact point World Bank Contact: Asya Akhlaque Title: Senior Economist Tel: (202) 458-8780 Fax: (202) 614-8780 Email: [email protected] Borrower Contact: Ali Mansoor Title: Financial Secretary, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development Tel: +230 2012339 Email: [email protected] X. For more information contact: The InfoShop The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 458-4500 Fax: (202) 522-1500 Web: http://www.worldbank.org/infoshop Annex 1: Proposed Prior Actions for DPL1 and Triggers for DPL2 Constraint Objective Prior Actions (DPL1) Pillar 1: Improving Competitiveness and Growth of Enterprises Growth of enterprises Improve Cabinet approval of constrained by weak outreach and consolidation of skills development quality of SME programs and training, quality Business under MoBEC control & standards Development and marketing and services (BDS) related business programs development services targeted towards (BDS). SMEs. Despite the enactment of the Insolvency Act in 2009, there has been little or no enactment of implementing rules and regulations. This has significantly limited the ability of the new Act to create an efficient, orderly and transparent liquidation and rehabilitation process. Facilitating, through the implementation of existing legislation, firm exit by providing the framework for the rehabilitation of stressed enterprises to seek temporary protection from their creditors without forcing them into bankruptcy. Indicative Triggers DPL2 Implementation of an Action Plan for consolidation of SMEs program under SMEDA that includes (a) establishing an interagency strategic coordination mechanism; and (b) Developing a framework that sets up guidelines on costsharing, target groups, types of services and M&E systems Ministerial approval and publication of the (i) registration guidelines and application form to register Insolvency Practitioners in Mauritius, (ii) prescribed forms for Statutory demand as per Section 180 of the Insolvency Act, (iii) prescribed forms for Proof of claim as per Second Schedule of the Insolvency Act. Ministerial approval and publication of a code of ethics for insolvency practitioners; and establishment of procedures by the Director of the Insolvency Service to deal with the suspension and removal of insolvency practitioners from the registry Cabinet approval of a decision to: (a) transform DBM into a financially viable Adoption of a detailed restructuring plan and implementation of selected actions. Pillar 2: Improving Access to Finance Growth of SMEs constrained by limited supply of specialized financial Provision of specialized menu of financial products/services products. for SMEs through the restructuring of DBM into a sustainable MSME financial institution. MSME Bank with governance, operations, and supervisory arrangements in line with international practice; and, (b) seek private sector participation in DBM. Inadequate collateral (movable and immovable assets). Increase access to credit through reforming land titling procedures and secured transactions laws and registries. Facilitate enhanced access to finance by reducing the risks associated with limited information on potential borrowers. Amend the Transcription and Mortgage Act to reduce the time taken to register property from 15 days to 48 hours Cabinet approval of legislative amendments to the Civil Code and other laws to allow the setting up of a modern movable collateral registry. The coverage of the credit information bureau is expanded to cover at least 60% of adult population in the registry Regulation from the Ministry of Renewable Energy and Public Utilities to enforce the accuracy of the name on the utility bill to match the name of the actual user. Limited credit bureau coverage. The Bank of Mauritius to establish and publish eligibility criteria and licensing guidelines for the setting up of private credit information bureaus Pillar 3: Promoting ICT and e-Gov for Enhancing Competitiveness and Transparency There are two broad Promote Cabinet approval of (i) Implementation of challenges: investments in the National mechanisms to (i) to promote affordable and Broadband Policy. monitoring policy goal continued investment ubiquitous progress; in high fixed cost broadband broadband networks networks by (ii) Initiation of in an environment signaling the institutional review to where the policy government’s establish an independent environment is long-term policy ICT regulator. unclear; and (ii) to intentions promote competition in markets where the dominant player has a near monopoly market in some markets but there is nascent competition in others. The National Broadband Policy provides a set of goals and targets but does not give ICTA the regulatory tools to achieve some of these. clearly, credibly and convincingly. Due to some systemic weaknesses, such as absence of compliance or enforceability mechanisms, coupled with a shortage of funds for recruiting additional staff, the National Information Security Strategy has not gained momentum and its final steps not completed, not yet allowing for secure online transactions to be executed. To promote widespread adoption and use Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) so that the private sector can execute secure electronic transactions. To reform regulation so that is applied in only markets where necessary and allows competition where possible. Cabinet approval to amend the Information and Communication Technologies Act (ICTA) of 2001 to provide ICTA the mandate to regulate markets where operator(s) are deemed to exert significant market power. Cabinet approval of ICTA’s plan to ensure the widest adoption of the PKI technology. Implementation of ICTA plan on PKI adoption.