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MOOSE POPULATION TRENDS IN ONTARIO Arthur R. Rodgers Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Population Trends in Ontario Population Distribution Population Trends Harvest Trends White-tailed Deer Population Trends Moose Management in Ontario Moose Habitat Management Threats to Moose Populations in Ontario Mitigating Threats to Moose NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario Moose Population Distribution NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario Moose Population Distribution NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario Moose Population Trends 1975-2006 NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research NW Ontario Moose Population Trends (1980-2007) 60000 Estimated Number of Moose 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario Moose Population Trends 1975-2007 Cows/Bull in the Population 3 2.5 Cows/Bull 2 R = 0.028 2 1.5 2 R = 0.260 2 R = 0.348 1 0.5 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 0 Year NW Trend NE (NS) NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program NE Trend NW (NS) S Trend S (NS) CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario Moose Population Trends 1975-2007 2 R = 0.028 20 % Calves 30 40 % Calves in the Population 2 R = 0.363 2 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 0 10 R = 0.356 Year NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program NW NE S Trend NE (NS) S Trend (NS) NW Trend (NS) CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario Moose Population Trends 1975-2007 Calves/100 Cows by Region Average of Calves/100 Cows 100 80 R2 = 0.180 60 40 R2 = 0.638 R2 = 0.524 20 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 0 Year NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program NW NE S S Trend (NS) NE Trend (p<0.05) NW Trend (p<0.05) CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research NW Ontario Moose Population Trends (1980-2007) 100 90 80 Calves/100 Cows 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario Moose Harvest Trends 1975-2006 Adult and Total Harvest (NW) 7000 6000 2 R = 0.013 Harvest 5000 4000 2 R = 0.004 3000 2000 2 R = 0.704 1000 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 0 Year Bull Total Trend (Cows) (p<0.05) NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program Cow Trend (Bulls) (NS) Trend (Total) (NS) CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario Moose Harvest Trends 1975-2006 Calf Harvest by Region 2500 Harvest 2000 1500 R2 = 0.095 1000 R2 = 0.244 500 R2 = 0.412 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 0 Year NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program NW NE S Trend NW (NS) Trend NE (NS) Trend S (p<0.05) CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario Moose Harvest Trends 1975-2006 Calf Harvest (previous fall) vs. % Calves in the Population (NWR) 25 2000 1800 20 1600 15 1200 1000 10 800 % Calves Calf Harvest 1400 600 5 400 200 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 0 1985 0 Year Calf Harvest NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program % calves CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario White-tailed Deer Population Trends NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Ontario White-tailed Deer Population Trends NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Management In Ontario Moose Management Policy (1980) NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Management In Ontario Moose Management Policy (1980) Moose are managed in 65 WMU’s within their range in Ontario NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Management In Ontario Moose Management Policy (1980) Moose are managed in 65 WMU’s within their range in Ontario Moose population information is collected in winter aerial surveys Most WMU’s are inventoried on a 3 – 6 year schedule NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Management In Ontario NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Management In Ontario NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Management In Ontario Moose Management Policy (1980) Moose are managed in 65 WMU’s within their range in Ontario Moose population information is collected in winter aerial surveys Most WMU’s are inventoried on a 3 – 6 year schedule Harvest data for moose and deer collected in annual hunter postcard surveys NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Management In Ontario Moose Management Policy (1980) Moose are managed in 65 WMU’s within their range in Ontario Moose population information is collected in winter aerial surveys Most WMU’s are inventoried on a 3 – 6 year schedule Harvest data for moose and deer collected in annual hunter postcard surveys “Selective moose harvest management system” established in 1983 Any Ontario resident hunter can buy a moose licence which entitles her/him to harvest a calf moose in any WMU in which there is an open season (exceptions exist in a few WMU’s) Annual harvest levels are generally 4% - 15% of the mid-winter moose population in a WMU NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Management In Ontario “Selective moose harvest management system” established in 1983 Any Ontario resident hunter can buy a moose licence which entitles her/him to harvest a calf moose in any WMU in which there is an open season (exceptions exist in a few WMU’s) Annual harvest levels are generally 4% - 15% of the mid-winter moose population in a WMU Allowable harvest levels and tag quotas for WMU’s are calculated every year by considering; trends in moose numbers, harvests, tag filling rates, recruitment and capability of the land to produce moose NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Management In Ontario NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Management In Ontario “Selective moose harvest management system” established in 1983 Any Ontario resident hunter can buy a moose licence which entitles her/him to harvest a calf moose in any WMU in which there is an open season (exceptions exist in a few WMU’s) Annual harvest levels are generally 4% - 15% of the mid-winter moose population in a WMU Allowable harvest levels and tag quotas for WMU’s are calculated every year by considering; trends in moose numbers, harvests, tag filling rates, recruitment and capability of the land to produce moose harvest of adult moose is controlled by issuing a specific number of “Adult Validation Tags” (AVT’s) for each WMU to resident hunters (88%) and to the tourist industry (12%) Non-residents may only hunt moose by purchasing a hunting package through a tourist outfitter NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Habitat Management In Ontario Moose Management Policy (1980) NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Habitat Management In Ontario Moose Management Policy (1980) Timber Management Guidelines for the Provision of Moose Habitat (1988) NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Timber Management Guidelines For The Provision Of Moose Habitat (1988) Cut blocks should be 80 - 130 ha, with buffer zones between cuts Shelter patches of 3 - 5 ha should be provided if moose >200 m from cover Shelter patches should be spaced 300 400 m apart Cuts should not exceed 400 m in width A 120 m reserve should be left around aquatic feeding areas, mineral licks and calving sites NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Habitat Management In Ontario Moose Management Policy (1980) Timber Management Guidelines for the Provision of Moose Habitat (1988) Class Environmental Assessment by the Ministry of Natural Resources for Timber Management on Crown Lands in Ontario (1994) NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Class Environmental Assessment by the Ministry of Natural Resources for Timber Management on Crown Lands in Ontario (1994) MNR shall undertake long-term scientific studies to assess the effectiveness of the provincial guidelines for moose and fish habitat and tourism values. These studies shall include an assessment of the effects of current timber management practices on moose and other wildlife habitat, fish habitat and tourism values. NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Class Environmental Assessment by the Ministry of Natural Resources for Timber Management on Crown Lands in Ontario (1994) MNR shall undertake long-term scientific studies to assess the effectiveness of the provincial guidelines for moose and fish habitat and tourism values. These studies shall include an assessment of the effects of current timber management practices on moose and other wildlife habitat, fish habitat and tourism values. MNR shall produce a new implementation manual to … provide direction in relation to harvest layout, configuration and clearcut sizes. For the purposes of these terms and conditions, the working title of this implementation manual is “Environmental Guidelines for Timber Management Activities”. NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Class Environmental Assessment by the Ministry of Natural Resources for Timber Management on Crown Lands in Ontario (1994) MNR shall undertake long-term scientific studies to assess the effectiveness of the provincial guidelines for moose and fish habitat and tourism values. These studies shall include an assessment of the effects of current timber management practices on moose and other wildlife habitat, fish habitat and tourism values. MNR shall produce a new implementation manual to … provide direction in relation to harvest layout, configuration and clearcut sizes. For the purposes of these terms and conditions, the working title of this implementation manual is “Environmental Guidelines for Timber Management Activities”. Within five years of this approval, and thereafter at least every five years, MNR shall review each implementation manual to determine the need for revision or amalgamation of the existing manuals or preparation of any new manuals. NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Moose Guidelines Evaluation Project (1995-2001) Populations Habitat Use Condition & Productivity Calving Sites Aquatic Feeding Areas Genetics & Morphometrics NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Natural Disturbance Pattern Emulation Guide species have evolved with this regime so the “natural pattern” is better for most species than “featured species” patterns imitate fire disturbance patterns at both the landscape and forest stand level NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Natural Disturbance Patterns – Fire NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program MAY 1999 CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Natural Disturbance Patterns – Fire NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research New Forest Management Guides Landscape Guide (2009) Stand & Site Guide (2008) Silviculture Guide (2003) Resource-based Tourism Values Guide (2006) Cultural Heritage Values Guide (2007) NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research New Forest Management Guides Landscape Guide Stand & Site Guide Silviculture Guide Resource-based Tourism Values Guide Cultural Heritage Values Guide NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Threats to Ontario’s Moose Population Declining %Calves in mid-winter Populations 2 R = 0.028 20 % Calves 30 40 % Calves in the Population 2 R = 0.363 2 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 0 10 R = 0.356 Year NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program NW NE S Trend NE (NS) S Trend (NS) NW Trend (NS) CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Threats to Ontario’s Moose Population Disease and predators NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Threats to Ontario’s Moose Population Adapting population management to climate change NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Summary of Climate Change Projections for Northwestern Ontario Climate Change Maps Available at “Go Green Ontario” Website – http://www.gogreenontario.ca/ Summer temperatures may increase by 4 – 5 C in the southern half of the region and 5 – 6 °C in the north Western half of the region may receive 10% less precipitation in the summer while the eastern half may not change Winter temperatures may increase by 4 – 6 °C in the southern half of the region and 6 – 9 °C in the north Southern three-quarters of the region may receive up to 30% more winter precipitation, while the northern quarter may receive 30% less NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Potential Effects of Climate Change on Moose Populations in Northwestern Ontario Increased heat stress – range recession NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Potential Effects of Climate Change on Moose Populations in Northwestern Ontario Increased heat stress – range recession Nutritional stress – lower calf production NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Potential Effects of Climate Change on Moose Populations in Northwestern Ontario Increased heat stress – range recession Nutritional stress – lower calf production Asynchrony during the rut – lower calf production NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Potential Effects of Climate Change on Moose Populations in Northwestern Ontario Increased heat stress – range recession Nutritional stress – lower calf production Asynchrony during the rut – lower calf production Increased risk of overharvest NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Potential Effects of Climate Change on Moose Populations in Northwestern Ontario Increased heat stress – range recession Nutritional stress – lower calf production Asynchrony during the rut – lower calf production Increased risk of overharvest Increased infestation by winter ticks NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Potential Effects of Climate Change on Moose Populations in Northwestern Ontario Increased heat stress – range recession Nutritional stress – lower calf production Asynchrony during the rut – lower calf production Increased risk of overharvest Increased infestation by winter ticks Increased occurrence of freezing rain – hypothermia NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Effects of Warmer Winter Temperatures Increased occurrence of freezing rain hypothermia Northern Ontario could experience 85% more freezing rain events by 2050 Northern Ontario could experience 135% more freezing rain events by 2080 From: Cheng et al. 2007 NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Potential Effects of Climate Change on Moose Populations in Northwestern Ontario Increased heat stress – range recession Nutritional stress – lower calf production Asynchrony during the rut – lower calf production Increased risk of overharvest Increased infestation by winter ticks Increased occurrence of freezing rain – hypothermia Increased survival of predators NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Potential Effects of Climate Change on Moose Populations in Northwestern Ontario Increased heat stress – range recession Nutritional stress – lower calf production Asynchrony during the rut – lower calf production Increased risk of overharvest Increased infestation by winter ticks Increased occurrence of freezing rain – hypothermia Increased survival of predators Higher rates of brainworm transmission initially, then lower rates as precipitation decreases in summer and increases in winter NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Potential Effects of Climate Change on Moose Populations in Northwestern Ontario Increased heat stress – range recession Nutritional stress – lower calf production Asynchrony during the rut – lower calf production Increased risk of overharvest Increased infestation by winter ticks Increased occurrence of freezing rain – hypothermia Increased survival of predators Higher rates of brainworm transmission initially, then lower rates as precipitation decreases in summer and increases in winter Increased fire hazard – more habitat NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Mitigating Threats to Ontario’s Moose Population – The Moose Program Review Managing the Calf Harvest Potential Calf Harvest Systems NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Mitigating Threats to Ontario’s Moose Population – The Moose Program Review Managing the Calf Harvest Potential Calf Harvest Systems NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Mitigating Threats to Ontario’s Moose Population – The Moose Program Review Managing the Calf Harvest Potential Calf Harvest Systems Draw for Calf Tags in 4 WMU’s since 2004 NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Mitigating Threats to Ontario’s Moose Population – The Moose Program Review Managing the Calf Harvest Potential Calf Harvest Systems Moose Seasons NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Mitigating Threats to Ontario’s Moose Population – The Moose Program Review Managing the Calf Harvest Potential Calf Harvest Systems Moose Seasons Other Harvest Regulations regulations on gear vehicle use and access hunting closures party hunting NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research Climate Change & Wildlife Literature Citation Database http://flash.lakeheadu.ca/~arodgers/ccld/ Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) Literature Citation Database http://flash.lakeheadu.ca/~arodgers/cld/ NMEP Northern Mammal Ecology Program CNFER Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research
