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ª The American Genetic Association. 2005. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: [email protected]. Journal of Heredity 2005:96(5):522–528 doi:10.1093/jhered/esi082 Advance Access publication June 30, 2005 Melanic Moth Frequencies in Yorkshire, an Old English Industrial Hot Spot L. M. COOK, S. L. SUTTON, AND T. J. CRAWFORD From the Manchester Museum, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL U.K. (Cook); Institute of Tropical Biology and Conservation, University Malaysia Sabah, Sabah, Malaysia (Sutton); Department of Biology, University of York, York U.K. (Crawford). Address correspondence to L. M. Cook at the address above, or e-mail: [email protected]. Abstract A survey has been carried out in Leeds, England, in the west Yorkshire industrial heartland, and in neighboring York, surrounded by agriculture, of melanic frequency in the moth species Biston betularia, Odontoptera bidentata, and Apamea crenata. All show a decline in melanics in the postindustrial environment, the first over almost the full range from nearly 100% to less that 10%, the others to smaller extents. Changes in several species over as great a magnitude and as wide an area must result from selection. The results are compared with others along a transect through northern England. The onset of response is progressively later from west to east. The rate of decline is lower at the extremes of the transect to west and east than it is in the center. We still do not have a clear picture of the causes of the changes. One major factor is likely to be selective predation, which is shown to be critically dependent on predation rate. As a consequence, differences in settling behavior between the species could account for different responses even if the species are attacked by the same predators. It is well known that melanic forms in numerous moth species increased in frequency in parts of Britain following industrialization in the 18th and 19th centuries (Kettlewell 1965; Kettlewell 1973; Majerus 1998). Northern England, with its intensive coal-fired manufacturing industry, was a center both of environmental change and of the earliest records of response by moth populations (Cook 2003; Kettlewell 1973; Lees 1981). Blackening of trees, buildings, and vegetation was extreme, and the atmosphere was heavily polluted with a variety of toxic gases. The response of moth populations in west Yorkshire was noteworthy enough for special comment when the British Association for the Advancement of Science met in York in 1906 (Porritt 1907). The earliest indication of an effect was the appearance of extreme black forms in the peppered moth Biston betularia (L.). They attracted attention during the 1870s and had become the prevalent form by the start of the 20th century. In another species, the scalloped hazel Odontoptera bidentata (Clerck), melanics began to be seen in the 1890s and within a decade had become very common. Porritt lists 30 species in which such distinct black forms were regularly obtained. Of these, seven had been recorded before industrialization, whereas others were novel. He added another 21 species in which dark individuals occurred so frequently as to suggest they were part of the same phenomenon, among them the clouded bordered brindle, known then as Xylophasia rurea and now as Apamea crenata (Hufnagel). 522 From the middle of the 20th century, there has been a general environmental improvement and a corresponding reduction in melanic frequencies (Clarke et al. 1985, 1994; Cook 2003). Similar changes have been seen in the United States (Grant and Wiseman 2002). West Yorkshire, with Leeds and it sister city, Bradford, at its center, was one of the major British industrial regions and one of the last to experience a decline in morph frequencies (Cook et al. 2002). York is situated in an extensive rural region 40 km to the northeast. Comparatively little information is available from Yorkshire, compared with industrial Lancashire and rural north Wales, which lie to the west separated from Yorkshire by the Pennine chain of mountains. To enlarge the area examined a study was set up 37 years ago by S. L. Sutton in Leeds to monitor the change in frequencies in the best known example, B. betularia, and for comparison, O. bidentata and A. crenata. The first two species are members of the subfamily Ennomiinae of the Geometridae. A. crenata belongs to the subfamily Amphipyrinae of the Noctuidae. All have annual nonoverlapping generations and fly from early May to June (O. bidentata) or May to July for the other two species. A set of results for the same species were collected by T. J. Crawford from 1990 to 2004 near York. The new data extend records eastward, so that we now have a transect over 200 km in extent passing through a full range of available habitats and climate types in north Wales and northern Cook et al. Melanic Moths in Yorkshire Figure 1. Sketch map of northern England and Wales showing the approximate locations of the centers mentioned in the text. C: Caldy, Wirral peninsula, Li: Liverpool, M: Manchester, Le: Leeds, Y: York. The 100 km squares of the National Grid are shown. England. The main locations referred to are shown in Figure 1. The efforts of recorders at the beginning of the 20th century were of immense importance in bringing the phenomenon of industrial melanism to the attention of the scientific community. The records were nevertheless often fragmentary and anecdotal. We hope to ensure that more detailed material is available for analysis from the end of the period of high melanic frequency. Materials and Methods The Leeds survey was carried out from 1967 to 2003 at sites 10 km NE of the city center in an area of suburban building and farm land. For the first 3 years the site was at Scholes (National Grid Reference 4377 4366) and subsequently 4 km distant at Bond Ing meadow, Shadwell (GR 4344 4394), a mature garden and pasture with extensive planting of trees and hedges. Sampling was by mercury vapor light trap and took place throughout the flying season where possible, but sometimes for shorter periods. This method of trapping collects almost entirely males in the species concerned, but the variation is the same in the two sexes. The York site is at Haxby (GR 4610 4587), about 5 km north of the city center on the edge of the built-up area. The same type of light trap was used, and continuous sampling was carried out during the relevant part of every year. B. betularia was scored as the dominant melanic carbonaria Jordan or the dotted white typical. At Leeds the intermediate insularia forms have been extremely rare. Only about 10 specimens were seen throughout the sampling period, so this type was ignored. At York, insularia was more common and has been recorded (see Cook and Muggleton, 2003, for a summary of information on the melanic types). O. bidentata was scored as the dominant melanic nigra Prout or as typical. Typicals from this region are darker than those from southern England but always clearly distinguishable from nigra. The genetics of melanic mutants in both species was first established by Bowater (1914). A. crenata was scored as dark or pale. The two types are very distinct. The pale form is straw-colored with mahogany brown markings at the edges of the wings, whereas the dark form has the entire forewing mahogany-colored except for a paler line round the orbicular and reniform stigmata. Kettlewell (1973) used the name alopecurus for this form. The correct name is probably combusta Howarth, which is used by South (1948), Skinner (1984), Sutton and Beaumont (1989), and other more recent authors, whereas alepecurus Esper refers to a darker form with black costal streaks and edge to the reniform stigma (Bretherton et al. 1983). The dark insects at the sampling sites all have the same phenotype. The three species are illustrated by Kettlewell (1973), Bishop and Cook (1980), and Majerus (1998). All collecting and identification at Leeds was made by or under the supervision of S. L. Sutton and at York by T. J. Crawford. All analysis is based on comparison of melanic and nonmelanic forms, without reference to genotype (the melanic forms in the two geometrids are dominant, and we have no information on A. crenata). The selective disadvantage v of the melanic form relative to the nonmelanic has been estimated from the equation L0 : M0(1 v)n ¼ Ln : Mn where the L and M are the initial frequencies and the final frequencies after n generations of nonmelanics and melanics. It follows from this relation that when the logarithms of the ratios show a linear change with generation the slope provides an estimate of v. The calculation has been found to give an adequate degree of accuracy and to be robust under conditions of high or low frequency (Cook et al. 1999a). Results The numbers collected at Leeds in the three species are shown in Table 1. There was a gap in collecting in 1988–89, 523 Journal of Heredity 2005:96(5) Table 1. Numbers of moths in three species caught in Leeds (melanics are shown in the first column for each species, nonmelanics in the second) Table 2. Date B. betularia Date B. betularia O. bidentata A. crenata 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 47 58 27 75 41 76 40 40 3 19 18 23 43 49 — 48 57 27 48 83 12 — — 5 34 27 18 7 1 4 2 1 9 6 — — 1 34 44 32 10 10 22 40 24 28 23 12 75 48 64 — 53 10 21 17 23 14 — — 2 3 16 11 4 3 5 0 1 10 11 — — 8 — — — 32 40 26 72 25 33 34 4 26 15 74 — 77 97 69 56 94 69 — — 51 75 96 19 19 8 3 0 5 8 33 — — 41 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 11 21 20 16 9 6 19 8 7 10 5 7 14 7 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 2 3 2 — 4 4 1 5 3 1 — — 2 16 9 11 11 5 1 1 8 13 18 — — 15 10 19 19 20 5 6 20 16 7 21 12 33 35 62 — 4 9 18 12 13 13 — — 3 18 20 7 2 4 7 0 3 10 18 — — 16 — — — 12 6 6 31 10 10 13 2 15 4 37 — 33 40 24 24 58 32 — — 31 37 46 21 20 13 3 0 2 7 19 — — 28 after which sampling was often of limited duration. Captures are generally lower in later years. This may reflect secular changes in population densities. In a wide-ranging survey of over 300 British moth species over the past 35 years, Conrad et al. (2004) found that more than twice as many species declined than increased in numbers. There was also regional variation in the trends, which are probably the result of both habitat and climate changes. The York samples are given in Table 2. A. crenata is relatively much rarer at York than at Leeds; we know of no reason for this difference. The figures for B. betularia 1990–2000 are also given by Cook and Grant (2000). Except for A. crenata at York, all three species show a drop in melanic frequency at both places, which is most marked in B. betularia. Mean frequency estimates are illustrated in Figures 2–4, with their binomial standard errors. For some years with low numbers data have been combined; the horizontal bars indicate the dates involved. 524 Numbers of moths in three species caught in York 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 2 2 0 3 2 0 1 1 6 12 7 6 6 2 15 9 8 17 16 12 30 19 12 O. bidentata A. crenata 2 1 2 3 1 4 6 5 3 7 3 4 3 3 2 — 3 3 3 3 5 2 1 0 3 1 4 2 6 1 5 4 4 7 6 20 12 15 19 20 11 14 23 11 9 — 26 10 11 8 12 5 5 6 4 4 8 6 10 3 Note: The columns for B. betularia are carbonaria, insularia, and typical. For the other two, melanics in first column, nonmelanics in second. Discussion B. betularia In Figure 2 a curve has been fitted by eye to the Leeds data to indicate the observed trend in frequency of carbonaria. From a situation where there were almost 100% melanics in the late 1960s, the frequency has declined to less than 10%. The territory extending WSW from Leeds across Lancashire and Cheshire and into north Wales has received considerable attention in studies of morph frequency (Bishop, 1972; Figure 2. Change in frequency of the carbonaria melanic form of the peppered moth Biston betularia in Leeds and York. Vertical lines are standard errors, horizontal lines show where data have been grouped. The curve labeled Leeds is a selection curve showing the trend in the Leeds data. M and C are similar curves fitted for comparison to data from Manchester (Cook et al. 2002) and Caldy, west of Liverpool (Grant et al. 1996). Inset: records for York 1990–2000 are superimposed on the Leeds curve. Cook et al. Melanic Moths in Yorkshire Figure 3. Change in frequency of the nigra melanic form of the scalloped hazel moth O. bidentata in Leeds and York. Data are means of pairs of years, indicated by horizontal lines. Vertical lines are standard errors. Figure 4. Change in frequency of the dark form of the clouded-bordered brindle moth A. crenata in Leeds. Vertical lines are standard errors, horizontal line shows where data have been grouped. Bishop et al. 1978; Clarke and Sheppard 1966; Cook 2003). There are also temporal series of records for Manchester and Caldy. Manchester is separated from Leeds by the Pennines but is within the region that had over 95% carbonaria during the 1950–70 period (Cook et al. 1999b). Caldy is on the Wirral peninsula west of Liverpool (Clarke et al. 1994; Grant et al. 1996). In 1959 it had 93% carbonaria, but the location is just to east of the cline in north Wales, which saw the frequency drop to 5% over about 25 km. It is the most complete data set, being based on a series of large samples collected annually until 2002. Manchester is about 65 km from Leeds, and Caldy about 130 km. The data for both sites are plotted together for comparison in Cook (2003). Curves M and C in Figure 2 are lines similar to that for Leeds, fitted to the data for Manchester and Caldy, respectively. It can be seen that as one proceeds west the initial frequency becomes lower, the decline commences earlier and is less steep. At Leeds the drop to 90% carbonaria occurred nearly 20 years after that at Caldy. It reached 50% 9 years later than at Caldy and 6 years after Manchester. The data for York are shown inserted on Figure 2, using the same grid of frequency and dates and with the Leeds curve superimposed as a comparative guide. The commencement of the decline is as delayed at York as at Leeds. Figures from the two places for the early 1990s map onto each other. Thereafter the drop has been slower at York, and the frequency of carbonaria is probably still appreciably higher than at Leeds. As noted long ago by Kettlewell (1965, 1973), the effects of industrialization on melanic frequency appear to be displaced to the northeast. The changes observed result from all the processes operating on the populations, namely selection, migration from populations with different frequencies, mutation, and random drift. Changes of as great a magnitude over as wide an area as observed must involve selection, and over the middle part of the frequency range the contribution of the other processes is likely to be negligible in comparison. Over the period 1980–2003 the disadvantage of the melanic morph compared with typical (estimated from the slope of log morph ratio on year for the period when the slope was linear) was 18.9 6 2.6% for York, 27.9 6 2.1% for Leeds, 29.2 6 3.5% for Manchester, and 22.3 6 0.8% for Caldy. Selection was most intense where initial frequency was higher (for the comparison of Leeds with Caldy the difference is significant, p , .05). When initial frequencies are very high, however, the balance of the different forces changes, and makes estimation difficult. If carbonaria gene frequency in Leeds was truly 100% before 1970, then no change would have been possible without introduction of typicals by mutation or migration of immigrants from regions of lower frequency. Because typical is recessive, these processes would have introduced genes in heterozygotes that were not subject to selection, and the response to selection would necessarily be very slow. It is likely that the response observed was in some part due to immigration. Population density is probably lower in industrial than in rural areas (Cook 2003), so that to the west of the Pennines, net migration is likely to be eastward, bringing with it the typicals characteristic of north Wales. We do not know whether there are areas of lower frequency farther east than York from which immigration may take place. For two points nearer the east coast Beaumont (2002) notes that at Spurn (; GR 5400 4100) there was recently a rapid change from the majority being melanic to the majority being typical, while at Hutton Rudby (GR 4507 5506) there has been a steady decrease in melanics from about 70% in 1990 to about 40% in 2000. Selection probably also changes with time. The data for Caldy cannot be fitted by a constant selection curve (Grant et al. 1996), selection apparently being low at the start, greater during the main period of change, and probably finally falling off. Such variation in selection may well occur at the other sites. 525 Journal of Heredity 2005:96(5) O. bidentata This species is similar in size to B. betularia, although with differently shaped wings, and flies at roughly the same time of year, when it will encounter similar predators. Patterns of morph frequency distribution and results from mark-releaserecapture experiments suggest that it is much less mobile than B. betularia (Bishop et al. 1978; Bishop and Cook 1980). The melanic form nigra is absent from the south of England, but high frequencies have been recorded in the industrial north. Variation in nigra frequency is more closely associated with urbanization than is carbonaria in B. betularia, frequencies rising in major centers and falling between them (Bishop et al. 1978). In the 1970s the frequency of nigra was over 70% in central Manchester, falling to 20% in suburbs a few km to the south. In Liverpool, however, it did not rise above 50% in conditions superficially very like those of urban Manchester, and there was an undulating rise and fall in frequency as one moved eastward between the two centers. Sample sizes are relatively low, and to show the patterns more clearly, means for pairs of years are illustrated in Figure 3 (calculations are based on individual years). In Leeds the frequency of nigra may have been initially even higher than in Manchester at about 75%, although there is no indication that it ever rose to the level of carbonaria in B. betularia. Since then, there has been a steady but shallow decline to 30–40%. We have no explanation for the unusually low frequencies in 1970 and 1991. In York, frequencies are much lower but also appear to have declined. The apparent selection against nigra is 3.8 6 1.1% per year at Leeds, whether or not the low figures are excluded (p , .01 in either case). At York the estimate is 3.7 6 2.4, which is not significant. Very similar changes have been observed in the Manchester area (Cook et al. 2004). Four km south of central Manchester the frequency has declined from 69% in the 1970s to 51% now, with selection against nigra of 3.5 6 0.5%. Two more westerly locations that scored 58% in the 1970s now have 39%. Because the species moves less than B. betularia immigration will correspondingly lave a lesser effect on morph frequency. A. crenata The clouded-bordered brindle is polymorphic for the dark and pale forms through most of Britain and Europe. The dark form is not restricted to industrial regions, although it has been at higher frequencies there. Kettlewell (1973) gave 80–93% for Bradford, compared with 28% in Hampshire, 60% in other parts of southern England and 41–50% in northern Scotland. On a smaller scale, Bishop at al. (1976) recorded over 92% for 13 sites near the center of Manchester and found that the frequency fell steadily to 60% over a 30-km transect into farm land to the south. The present records for Leeds (Figure 4) show that the correspondence with changing conditions also occurs in time; the frequency of combusta has fallen from about 75% in the 1970s to below 50% now. Selection against the dark form is 3.6 6 0.7% (p , .01). In both starting frequency and slope the change therefore closely follows that of nigra in O. bidentata. The 526 numbers of A. crenata collected in York are small. There is no detectable change over the 14 years of recording. The mean frequency of melanic is 23.9%, much lower than in Leeds or Manchester and comparable with rural sites in other parts of Britain. Causes of Change Following the advent of effective clean air legislation and monitoring in the late 1950s, the old industrial environment has been cleaned or demolished and rebuilt. The amount of vegetation has greatly increased compared with the early 20th century. Atmospheric pollution has declined dramatically. Data for Bradford show that by 1971 the concentration of sulfur dioxide was half that in 1962 and that it had halved again by 1980. The 1962 concentration of smoke was halved by 1966 and halved again by 1973. The data presented here show that three species of moths have all responded to changing ecological conditions with a fall in frequency of melanic forms. In the case of B. betularia in Leeds, the change is parallel with but more extreme than other declines observed in locations to the west. In the other two species the decline is less marked but nevertheless appreciable. Together they demonstrate the power of selection brought about by a changing environment. Majerus (1998) has argued strongly that the explanation for industrial melanism in B. betularia, and probably generally in moths with melanic forms, can be found in selective predation by birds. There has been considerable discussion of whether the experiments on selective predation carried out to date show its nature and strength (Grant and Howlett 1988; Howlett and Majerus 1987; Mikkola 1979). Whether or not the experiments actually demonstrate that predation is sufficient to account for the observed patterns, the difference in response between different species may indicate that additional forces operate as well. Industrial melanism is also seen in two-spot ladybirds (coccinellid beetles) that are distasteful to many predators (Benham et al. 1974; Creed 1971; Majerus 1998). The situation in A. crenata, and in other species such as Apocheima pilosaria (Cook et al. 2002; Lees 1971, 1981) that are polymorphic in rural areas, raises the question whether equilibria are sometimes the result of selective forces independent of industrial conditions. One point to be made with respect to selective predation, however, is that the three species discussed here have different daytime resting places that probably make them visible to potential predators to different extents. B. betularia rests exposed on surfaces. It may be found on tree trunks, but observations have shown that a preferred location is on narrow branches in the upper parts of trees (Howlett and Majerus 1987; Liebert and Brakefield 1987; Mikkola 1979). Where trees were not available and disturbing lights were present, as would have been the case in industrial cities in the past, it would have been likely to have rested on walls. O. bidentata sometimes settles on surfaces but may also crawl into cracks or under leaves where it is less exposed. In experiments by Bishop et al. (1975) B. betularia and O. bidentata were allowed to emerge from pupae into Cook et al. Melanic Moths in Yorkshire enclosures with both exposed surfaces and features that allowed the moths to hide. There was a very strong tendency for O. bidentata to find covered or protected sites whereas B. betularia remained exposed (v2 ¼123.7 and 285.7, d.f. ¼ 1, respectively, in two trials). Like many other noctuids, A. crenata spends the day near the ground in long grass or herbage (Bretherton et al. 1983). Apart from differences in appearance that will make them differently visible, these species are likely to experience different levels of predation even within the same location. It is therefore interesting to consider the possible effect of intensity of predation, as distinct from predator discrimination. Consequences of Selective Predation Suppose there are N individuals in a predation experiment or natural predated population, of which L are typical and M are melanic (L þ M ¼ 1). In the absence of selective removal a fraction I is eaten (0 , I , 1). Predators detect the two forms differently. Suppose that for every typical detected 1 a melanics are detected. Choice by predators is exerted through prey individuals eaten, while the effect on the prey population is measured on those left. This can be expressed as a coefficient v, such that L : ð1 vÞM ¼ Lð1 I Þ : M ½1 I ð1 aÞ: Consequently, the fitness (1 v) of melanics compared to typicals as a result of selective predation is especially when there are high or low frequencies. Predation rate must be substantial to ensure that predator choice is translated into change in the prey population, but this will put the continued survival of the population at risk. Predation rate in the wild is very difficult to measure now, and it is impossible to know what it was under the conditions that brought about industrial melanic patterns; it may have been higher in industrial regions than in rural ones because fewer inconspicuous resting sites were available. Different exposure to predation and different average densities may generate widely different results in species subject to the same predators. It is therefore to be expected that response will differ even if selective predation is the common factor involved. New experimental information would help us understand the interactions, but practical problems of translating results into reliable evidence of causation remain. Acknowledgments We thank Pam, Norman, and David Taylor, Dan Houldsworth, and Sam Rose for help with collecting in Leeds and John Muggleton for comments on the draft. Information on atmospheric pollution in Bradford is from www.bradford.gov.uk. References Beaumont HE, 2002. Butterflies and moths of Yorkshire: a millennium review. Weymouth: Yorkshire Naturalists Union. 1 v ¼ ½1 I ð1 aÞ=ð1 I Þ Benham BR, Lonsdale D, and Muggleton J, 1974. Is polymorphism in the two-spot ladybird an example of non-industrial melanism? Nature 249: 179–180. v ¼ aI =ð1 I Þ: It is evident from these expressions that dv/dM ¼ 0, dv/da ¼ I/(1 I ) and dv/dI ¼ a/(1 I )2. The expected estimate of v is not influenced by differences in initial frequency between different experiments or locations, but is highly dependent on the predation rate experienced. High predation magnifies the selection resulting from a given difference in detectability, while reduction in predation decreases its effect. Only if I ¼ 1/2 does v ¼ a. The maximum likelihood variance of 1 v is Bishop JA, 1972. An experimental study of the cline of industrial melanism in Biston betularia (L.)(Lepidoptera) between urban Liverpool and rural north Wales. J Anim Ecol 41:209–243. and 2 V ¼ ð1 vÞð1 MvÞ =fLMN ½1 I ð1 M aÞg: The denominator of this expression shows that the variance tends to infinity as M tends to zero or 1. There will be low accuracy when there are high or low melanic frequencies, compensated for if the population size N is large. The variance also tends to infinity as pffiI increases. However, until I gets close to 1, the deviate v/ V also increases, so that as long as predation is not heavy enough to endanger the population or to modify predator behavior, the effectiveness of selection will increase with fraction taken. There may also be interactions between these variables and predator response, for example a might be a function of I, but we have no direct evidence on predator reaction. If selective predation is the main cause of the patterns seen, then it operates under quite strong constraints. Effective population size must be large to reduce drift, Bishop JA and Cook LM, 1980. 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J Hered 87:351–357. Corresponding Editor: Stephen O’Brien 528