Download imagining the future of africa 2025

“IMAGINING THE FUTURE OF AFRICA 2025”
Authors:
Kiplangat Josea Cheruiyot
School of Economics, University of Nairobi
[email protected]
Langat Ronald
Faculty of Arts, University of Nairobi
[email protected]
This essay seeks to succinctly, provide Africa‟s future trajectory in terms of development and
economic growth while looking at its historical evolution over time and will therefore provide
effective ways in which the problem of economic growth and development in Africa can be
addressed and sustainable development be attained by the year 2025.
In the 21st century, Africa is still faced with numerous challenges that remain unresolved. This
has been a great impediment towards realization of Africa‟s desire to reposition itself in the
world, and to reposition the world with its own objectives, perhaps the most important of which
still remains that of bring development which could also be understood as freedom as Amartya
Sen (1998) argued in his paper, “Development as freedom.”
Among the problems that the continent is faced with are; poverty, regional integration, rapid
urbanization, gender inequality, food insecurity, violent conflict, political fragmentation, poor
governance, climate change among other socio-economic and political issues that will be
adequately dealt with in this essay.
The organizational structure of this essay is composed of three sections. The first section, will
discuss the economic challenges where as the second section, examines the environmental
challenges that faces Africa and lastly, the third section will examine the social and political
challenges facing the continent. While, examining all these proposals to combating all these
challenges will be suggested after each section.
Turning to the first section we examine the economic challenges, Africa has entered the 21st
century with a bundle of unresolved economic challenges that remains to hound Africa‟s
prosperity as a nation compared to other continents of the world. With respect to this Africa is
still seen as less civilized and undeveloped by most countries of the West and that it plays an
insignificant part in the world economy.
Poverty is at the heart of Africa‟s problem and therefore calls for an immediate response to
alleviate this problem which poses a great threat to the existence of the continent is not addressed
on time. According to Amartya (1998), poverty implies the lack of freedom and therefore with
unfreedom poverty in place development is a mirage. It is therefore time for the continent to rise,
resolve this menace, and hence open up more economic opportunities that are growth oriented in
nature.
Of considerable concern too is the rapid population increase. The numbers has kept on rising and
as a result, the spending power of the continent is expected to increase, so will private
consumption. With the increase in population, there is also fast growing working-age population
that should substantially increase the productivity levels and ultimately reduce the dependency
ratio. This demographic dividend, which contributed to Asia‟s „economic miracle‟ in the 1990‟s
could also be effectively utilized to boost the African economy and thus, stimulating social
development that would be profitable for the continent as a whole.
Therefore, if African countries are to become successful and powerful economical compared to
other continents such as Asia and Latin America there is need to adopt, effectively implement
adequate tax, and social security systems. These policies will eventually contribute positively to
the expansion of the private sector, job creation for the youths, women and the vulnerable groups
within the society, and this would lead to an increase in productivity levels of the continent as
tackling the problem of poverty.
The third, challenge faced by the continent is the high fertility rates. Countries will only develop
if the current fertility rates being experienced in the continent decreases in the future compared
to the present fertility levels. A distinctive of African societies, regardless of social and economic
status, is the importance placed on perpetuation of lineage and social value on women‟s fertility.
In the rural areas, children marriage is a common practice and there is no access to
contraceptives. This particularly explains the high fertility rates among the African societies. The
high fertility rates leads to high population growth rates which is not associated with an increase
in the standard of living and thus increasing the vulnerability to poverty.
The fourth, challenge is one of food insecurity. Africa as a continent is food insecure, and this
threat is reinforced by the rapid demographic pattern experienced currently in Africa. The in turn
worsens the poverty level. The vicious circle therefore spirals and is doomed to ruin the
existence of Africa if not resolved. Besides, this problem of food insecurity coupled with
minimal level of government regulation, a lack of advanced agricultural technology, distribution
channels being weak and the high fragmentation of agricultural land amongst families and
societies, which inhibits the establishment of effective regulation or legislation.
The fifth, challenge is rapid urbanization. Whereas rapid urbanization can be the main driver of
economic growth and development, an unplanned growth of shantytowns around cities combined
with lack of economic empowerment threatens Africa‟s main cities. For instance, the growth of
slums in urban areas will eventually be breeding grounds for terrorism, which would lead to
rising insecurity, which is detrimental to development and economic growth.
Unemployment amongst the youth is also a major challenge that needs to be tackled. It is evident
that by 2025 the number of job seekers will be expected to have considerably risen in proportion
compared to the current levels. To tackle these issue countries therefore need to roll out
programs aimed at sensitizing the youths and creating avenues for them to get capital for them to
engage in productive activities that would ensure revenue generation for them. Taking an
example of programs that the Kenyan Government recently introduced is the Uwezo Fund. This
fund was established to ensure that youths have access to soft loans that the can borrow to further
their investments. If this fund is effectively managed then this means the youths will become
productive and their contribution will be felt in the economy. It is therefore important that other
countries implement various programs geared towards addressing unemployment among the
youths
It is therefore important to note that Africa‟s success will therefore depend on the stability, sound
policies and solid institutions that it puts in place. The policies that has to be put in place to
address most of these challenges rests squarely on the following pillars: First pillar is improving
the investment climate, this will focus on reducing the amount of indirect costs to firms, reducing
and mitigating risk especially those associated with security of property, political instability and
macroeconomic instability. Even though in individual countries this is at the focal point, it is also
important that African countries pool efforts to developing more cohesive investment areas
through the coordination of policies, coordination of investment promotions, improvement of
security and increasing connectivity with countries in the continent.
The second pillar is on infrastructure, whose target is on transaction costs in the production of
goods and services. The focus therefore would be on ways of reducing the high costs that are
usually associated with the remoteness of the landlocked countries to facilitate trade with
neighbors as well as the rest of the world. This calls for the need to look beyond the individual
country borders and adopt a more encompassing regional approach to coordinate cross-border
infrastructure investment, maintenance and power pooling to reduce costs. In the African
context, it is evident that there exist limited geographical integrations. The existing are highly
segmented levels of integration which when taken as a whole is not effective in ensuring the
continents growth.
The third pillar deals with building institutional capacity. It is therefore imperative that relevant
public institutions are strengthened to ensure the protection of property rights, and to scrutinize
and ensure accountability for public actions. Core to strengthening the institutional capacity is
enhancing individual capacities, organizational effectiveness, and rules of the game. All this
strategies would spur private sector enterprise.
Turning to the second section of the essay, we examine the environmental challenges and
propose the way forward for Africa in ensuring that we move to a greener and environmentally
friendly economy.
African continent well endowed with natural resources. In fact, compared to other continents it is
considered the richest. To achieve long term development and poverty alleviation within the
continent this requires sustainable and optimal management of natural resources in a manner that
the current exploitation of these natural resources should also be cognizant of the needs of the
future generations. Natural capital is a critical asset for the low-income countries and effective
utilization can transform the economies of these countries.
African countries must tap into their natural resource wealth to accelerate the pace of growth and
ensure that the process benefits the ordinary Africans. Besides, growth, African countries must
provide the right conditions for turning natural resources into jobs, optimize their resource
revenues through smart taxation and help investors and locals to make most linkages. Access to
markets is thus essential for fundamental transformation based on the natural resource base;
regional integration and better access to the markets of large partners could open up new
opportunities for all.
Having noted that Africa is resource endowed it is not short of challenges that makes harness
them difficult. Three factors strongly increase the threat of environmental degradation in Africa.
Among these factors are; limited democracy, Africa‟s demographics and lastly heavy burden of
foreign debt. With the end of colonial rule, there has been expansion of the social sector. This
expansion led to increase in infant mortality and population and therefore the burden of
dependency increased. This forced the providers to move and search for ways to provide for the
rising populations. This led to individuals resorting to environmentally disastrous options such as
deforestation in order to create more land for cultivation.
The second factor attributed to environmentally degradation is the incurrence of huge foreign
debts by African countries in efforts to industrialize and to provide for the rapidly growing
population with modern social services. The high dependence on export of primary products has
left the African continent vulnerable to the long decline in the prices of commodities. At the
same time prices for imported energy products forced many families to resort to wood and
charcoal for their domestic energy sources. These developments therefore put strain on the
environment everywhere in the region.
Much debate on Africa‟s sustainable development focus on the region‟s severe poverty and thus
there is need for growth that is greener and less environmentally damaging in order to ensure
reduction of poverty. It is also evident that environmental challenges in Africa are more than
complex and no easy solution exists. Therefore whatever the policies that are implemented they
must increase the people‟s interest in protecting the environment by involving them directly in
the process; reduce the incidence of poverty in order to reduce pressure on natural resources and
show how a high level of resource can go hand-in hand with the maintenance of environmental
quality.
The proposals therefore to ensuring that there is sustainable development and preserving the
natural environment should include state participation in setting the correct investment priorities;
it can also provide the required infrastructure, services and education. In the urban areas focus
should be on providing safe water, collecting and disposing solid waste and improving the
physical layout of congested areas; in the rural areas, it should focus on health, education and
basic sanitation. In this case, the state should set environmental standards that are relevant with
regard to the socioeconomic circumstances.
Conservation measures should be put in place in order to protect natural resources from
excessive use. This could me setting aside tracts of land in order to protect watersheds, prevent
social erosion, allow natural regeneration to take place, and preserve habitats and species. It is
important however, to note that setting aside tracts of land does not imply being able to manage
it properly. In most cases many governments lacks the appropriate personnel or financial
resources to administer the protected areas. This therefore calls for the need to involve private
groups and non-governmental organizations that may provide other options for conservation
management. Such groups can better raise the funds to purchase land, to support conservation
activities in existing parks and reserves, to incorporate the local population in management
decisions and to effectively negotiate land uses disputes within and between communities.
The last section of this essay therefore carefully examines the social and political challenges
facing Africa and the possible policy measures to be implemented. There has been many
achievements in terms of social and political achievements or developments on Africa. Huge
strides has been made in education and health sector as well as the political environment. Within
the political environment there has been increase in the levels of democracy and political
involvement of the citizens as compared to the last two decades of Africa.
However, Africa is still puzzled by the paradox of poverty, which is both an economic and social
phenomenon. The presence of different social classes has led to exclusion and marginalization of
a large segment of African societies. There is also political marginalization of individuals,
groups and entire social classes by the ruling elite. This has been the major cause of conflicts that
has destabilized most African countries, while aggravating underdevelopment and perpetuation
of international dependence to resolve these issues
In order to address the social and political challenges in Africa special attention should be
focused of the role of knowledge in the development process. In this case there need to be a
conducive environment that would allow for innovation. Investment in modern technologies
especially, ICTs is essentially in increasing access and effective utilization of social services. For
instance, the mobile phone, FM radio stations should play a key role in enhancing the social and
political space. The net effect being economic growth and development, this kind of growth
should be inclusive. Inclusiveness in growth implies broader participation in the development
process by allowing individuals to contribute and benefit from the development. While Africa
has recently enjoyed rapid growth, it is debatable whether this growth is sustainable in the long
term. The ingredients that is therefore essential to boosting inclusive growth in Africa should
include; boosting the agricultural production, helping small businesses, better quality and
relevant education, encouraging private sector improvement and addressing gender and regional
disparities among others. In promoting growth, this will help ensure political stability as well as
equal distribution of wealth, increased social and productive sectors spending. This will lead to
the creation of decent work and adequate fiscal policies that will help reduce the risks of political
uprisings.
In conclusion, the question that is worth interrogating at this point is, “What is the future for
Africa 2025?” Can we perceive the next decade as being the time for Africa to take charge of its
future and make it the 21st century one of its renaissance? In the words of Lagarde, “the wind
blows differently, change is coming.” The opportunities have never been so great, the
possibilities so tantalizing. We are betting our future growth on the belief that transformation
will endure and will be extended to many more countries across the continent. The future for
Africa remains bright and it will be in a position to regain its rightfully position in the global
economy.