Download Problem Set 7 – Some Answers FE312 Fall 2010 Rahman 1

Problem Set 7 – Some Answers
FE312 Fall 2010
Rahman
1) Suppose the Fed reduces the money supply by 5 percent.
a) What happens to the aggregate demand curve?
If the Fed reduces the money supply, the aggregate demand curve shifts down. This
result is based on the quantity equation MV = PY, which tells us that a decrease in
money M leads to a proportionate decrease in nominal output PY (assuming of
course that velocity V is fixed). For any given price level P, the level of output Y is
lower, and for any given Y, P is lower.
b) What happens to the level of output and the price level in the short run and in the
long run?
In the short run, we assume that the price level is fixed and that the aggregate supply
curve is flat. In the short run, output falls but the price level doesn’t change. In the
long-run, prices are flexible, and as prices fall over time, the economy returns to full
employment.
If we assume that velocity is constant, we can quantify the effect of the 5% reduction
in the money supply. Recall from Chapter 4 that we can express the quantity
equation in terms of percent changes:
ΔM/M + ΔV/V = ΔP/P + ΔY/Y
We know that in the short run, the price level is fixed. This implies that the
percentage change in prices is zero and thus ΔM/M = ΔY/Y. Thus in the short run a 5
percent reduction in the money supply leads to a 5 percent reduction in output.
In the long-run we know that prices are flexible and the economy returns to its
natural rate of output. This implies that in the long-run, the percentage change in
output is zero and thus ΔM/M = ΔP/P. Thus in the long run a 5 percent reduction in
the money supply leads to a 5 percent reduction in the price level.
c) According to Okun’s law, what happens to unemployment in the short run and in
the long run?
Okun’s law refers to the negative relationship that exists between unemployment and
real GDP. Okun’s law can be summarized by the equation:
ΔY/Y = 3.5% - 2*(Δ in unemployment)
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Problem Set 7 – Some Answers
FE312 Fall 2010
Rahman
That is, output moves in the opposite direction from unemployment, with a ratio of 2
to 1. In the short run, when output falls, unemployment rises. Quantitatively, if
velocity is constant, we found that output falls 5% (relative to full employment) in the
short run, so unemployment increases 2.5%. In the long run, both output and
unemployment return to their natural levels, so there is no long-term change in
unemployment.
d) What happens to the real interest rate in the short run and in the long run?
The national income accounts identity tells us that saving S = Y – C – G. Thus, when
Y falls, S falls (assuming that MPC is less than one). This will cause the real interest
rate to rise (see Figure 3-9 for what this would look like). When Y returns to its
original long-run level, so does the real interest rate.
2) Let’s examine how the goals of the Fed influence its response to shocks. Suppose Fed
A cares only about keeping the price level stable, and Fed B cares only about keeping
output and employment at their natural levels. Explain how each Fed would respond to
a) An exogenous decrease in the velocity of money.
An exogenous decrease in the velocity of money causes the aggregate demand curve
to shift downward. In the short run, prices are fixed, so output falls.
If the Fed wants to keep output and employment at their natural-rate levels, it must
increase aggregate demand to offset the decrease in velocity. By increasing the
money supply, the Fed can shift the aggregate demand curve upward, restoring the
economy to its original equilibrium point. Both the price level and output would
remain constant.
If the Fed wants to keep prices stable, then it wants to avoid the long-run adjustment
to a lower price level. Therefore, it should do precisely what Fed B does, and
increase the money supply to shift the aggregate demand curve upward, again
restoring the original equilibrium point.
b) An exogenous increase in the price of oil.
An exogenous increase in the price of oil is an adverse supply shock that causes the
short-run aggregate supply curve to shift upward.
If the Fed cares about keeping output and employment at their natural-rate levels,
then it should increase aggregate demand by increasing the money supply. This
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Problem Set 7 – Some Answers
FE312 Fall 2010
Rahman
policy response shifts the aggregate demand curve rightward. In this case, the
economy immediately reaches a new equilibrium – the price level is permanently
higher, but there is no loss in output associated with the adverse supply shock.
If the Fed cares about keeping prices stable, then there is no policy response it can
implement. In the short run, the price level stays at the higher level. The Fed must
simply wait, holding aggregate demand constant. Eventually, prices fall to restore
full employment at the old price level. But the cost of this process is a prolonged
recession.
3) Totally differentiate the quantity equation of money to derive the slope of the
aggregate demand curve (obviously this requires calculus – I’m not saying a question
like this would ever show up on your exam. I just think it’s cool.).
The quantity equation is given by MV = PY. Totally differentiating this gives us
M*dV + V*dM = P*dY + Y*dP.
Along a stationary aggregate demand curve, dV = dM = 0, so Y*dP = -P*dY, or
dP/dY = -P/Y. Note that this is precisely the slope of the demand curve (the change
in price for a slight change in output), which is of course negative.
4) Almost all economists agree that wages and prices are flexible in the long run and that
real GDP moves toward its natural level. The speed with which this occurs, however,
is a subject of considerable debate. Some economists believe that sticky wages and
prices make the movement back to the natural level a long, protracted process, while
others believe that wages and prices are sufficiently flexible to move the economy
rapidly to its natural level.
What do you suppose economists who believe that the natural level is achieved very
slowly think about the importance of stabilization policies? Why? What do you
suppose economists who believe that the natural level is achieved rapidly think about
stabilization policies? Why?
Those economists who believe that sticky wages and prices make the movement to the
natural level a long drawn-out process generally believe that stabilization policies
have an important role to play so that the economy need not languish for long periods
of time below full employment. Those economists who believe that prices and wages
are sufficiently flexible to move the economy to its natural level rapidly are less
enthusiastic about the use of stabilization policy for several reasons: the policy
effects and their timing are often unpredictable, policymakers may not act in the best
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Problem Set 7 – Some Answers
FE312 Fall 2010
Rahman
interest of then economy, and the public’s expectations of policy changes may
mitigate their efficacy.
5) Suppose velocity is stable. What specific things would the Federal Reserve need to
know in order to keep output at its natural level following a supply shock?
If velocity is stable, the Federal Reserve can easily ascertain the shape and position
of the aggregate demand curve. Once the Fed located the position of the current
short-run aggregate supply curve (by knowing what the current price level is), it
could implement the appropriate policy change to shift the aggregate demand curve
and keep output stable. Of course this also means that the Fed would also need to
know where the long-run aggregate supply curve was (that is, the level of output that
the economy can CONSISTENTLY produce without inflation or deflation).
Suppose instead that velocity is unstable and unpredictable. How would this
complicate the Federal Reserve’s ability to stabilize the economy following a supply
shock?
If velocity is unstable and unpredictable, it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to
ascertain the exact shape and position of the aggregate demand curve. Consequently,
it would be difficult to determine the required change in the money supply even if the
short-run and long-run aggregate supply curves can be located precisely.
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Problem Set 7 – Some Answers
FE312 Fall 2010
Rahman
6) Consider the impact of an increase in thriftiness in the Keynesian cross. Suppose the
consumption function is C = a + c(Y – T), where a is a parameter called autonomous
consumption and c is the marginal propensity to consume.
a. What happens to equilibrium income when the society becomes more thrifty,
as represented by a decline in a? By how much does it change?
If society becomes more thrifty—meaning that for any given level of income
people save more and consume less—then the planned-expenditure function shifts
down ward, (note that C2 < C1). Equilibrium income falls from Y1 to Y2.
Planned Expenditures (PE)
Y = PE
PE1 (C1)
PE2 (C2)
Y2
Y1
Y
b. What happens to equilibrium saving? Why do you suppose this result is called
the paradox of thrift?
Equilibrium saving remains unchanged. The national accounts identity tells us
that saving equals investment, or S = I. In the Keynesian-cross model, we
assumed that desired investment is fixed. This assumption implies that investment
is the same in the new equilibrium as it was in the old. We can conclude that
saving is exactly the same in both equilibria.
The paradox of thrift is that even though thriftiness increases, saving is
unaffected. Increased thriftiness leads only to a fall in income. For an individual,
we usually consider thriftiness a virtue. From the perspective of the entire
economy as represented by the Keynesian-cross model, however, thriftiness is a
vice.
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Problem Set 7 – Some Answers
FE312 Fall 2010
Rahman
c. Does this paradox arise in the classical model of Chapter 3? Why or why not?
In the classical model of Chapter 3, the paradox of thrift does not arise. In that
model, output is fixed by the factors of production and the production technology,
and the interest rate adjusts to equilibrate saving and investment, where
investment depends on the interest rate. An increase in thriftiness decreases
consumption and increases saving for any level of output; since output is fixed,
the saving schedule shifts to the right. At the new equilibrium, the interest rate is
lower, and investment and saving are higher.
7)
a. Suppose that there is a sudden increase in the demand for money – that is, at
the same levels of r and Y people want to hold more money. What would happen
to the money demand curve and the LM curve? Illustrate graphically.
The money demand curve would shift to the right. Notice that this implies a
higher interest rate. The LM curve would shift to the left. Notice that this also
implies a higher interest rate; it also means less economic output – think of the
reasons why.
b. Suppose that Congress decides to reduce the budget deficit by cutting
government spending. What would happen to the Keynesian Cross and the IS
curve? Illustrate graphically.
The planned expenditure curve would shift down. The IS curve would shift left.
Think of the reasons why.
8)
How would each of the following changes affect the shape of the IS curve?
a. the MPC gets bigger.
It gets flatter. Use the Keynesian Cross to see why.
b. investment becomes more sensitive to changes in the interest rate.
It gets flatter.
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