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Climate Information & Decision Support Systems Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering Dual-purpose of Climate DSS Education Service C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Education Components • Drivers of climate variability and change (ENSO, long-term climate projections) • Effects and potential implications on the SE Climate and worldwide • Impacts of variability/change on agricultural commodities and water resources • Risk mitigation and adaptation strategies • Improve resource use efficiency (irrigation management, carbon & water footprints) How cover crops, pasture-based rotation systems, variable rate irrigation help mitigating climate-related risk? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Service Components • Climate monitoring • Short-term and seasonal forecasts • Translation to agrelated variables (Degree-days, chill hours, crop yield) • Alert systems (freezes, disease risk) NOAA monitors the Pacific Ocean but UF-IFAS monitors your field! C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions Monitoring & Weather Forecast • What field can I work on this afternoon? • When can I plant my seeds? • Should I apply N fertilizer to my fields? • Will it be dry enough to harvest? Flooded peanut field. Doug Mayo – August 2013. • Should I cut hay today? • Cold protection tonight? Blueberry freeze, UF-IFAS, February 2002. C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions Seasonal Climate Forecast Strategic Decisions • Best crop/variety to plant this season? • How much should I invest in fertilizer? How to apply N? • Should I purchase/increase crop insurance coverage? • Marketing decisions? • Should I invest in winter pasture or feed? C. C.W. W.Fraisse, Fraisse,UF-IFAS UF-IFAS Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions Long-term Climate Projections ? ? Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult! One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions” * Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national policy and long-term planning C. C. W. W. Fraisse, Fraisse, UF-IFAS UF-IFAS Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions Long-term Climate Projections ? ? • How do I become more resilient to climate extremes? Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult! One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions” • Should I invest in land somewhere else? * Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national or regional planning C. C. W. W. Fraisse, Fraisse, UF-IFAS UF-IFAS Dual-Purpose of Climate DSS – Our Vision Priority / Intensity Education Should we concentrate efforts here? Short-term Climate Monitoring forecast Seasonal Decadal Service Long-term climate projection Timeframe Fraisse et al. 2014. Dual-purpose of climate DSS (in preparation). C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Different Perspectives of the Same Problem Intensity Web-based DSS Smartphones Short-term Climate Monitoring forecast Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection Timeframe C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS HOME TOOLS FORECASTS STATE SUMMARIES MANAGEMENT CLIMATE EXTENSION ABOUT C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Examples of questions that AgroClimate can help answering 1. Effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in our climate? 2. Levels of water stress in the SE? 3. Typical carbon footprint of corn produced in the SE USA? 4. Current strawberry disease risk? Should I apply fungicide? 5. Best peanut planting dates during La Niña years (water stress)? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Average rainfall – El Niño years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average – El Niño years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average La Niña years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability distribution – Rainfall La Niña years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years 37% C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years 63% C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, current year C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, last 5 years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS ENSO Impacts El Niño La Niña Number of days with moderate or high Botrytis risk in Plant City, FL Chill accumulation (hours per season), Marion County, FL. C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: ARID Carbon - Agricultural footprint calculator Reference - Strawberry Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS SAS App • Monitors infection risk for Anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot • Users receive notification messages when the model detects a potential infection risk according to observed weather conditions. 1. 2. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS 1. 2. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS 1. 2. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS 1. 2. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS 1. 2. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS SAS – Behind the DSS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS AgroClimate Management: Conservatoin Tillage C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Thank you! Interested in organizing an AgroClimate workshop in your area? Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering University of Florida – IFAS 352-392-1864 ext 271 [email protected]
