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letter to the editor Everolimus, when combined with exemestane, adds toxicity with minimal benefit for women with breast cancer Annals of Oncology has greater anti-tumour activity than exemestane alone, it leads to only a modest improvement in survival in an unselected population and it adds substantial toxicity’. I. F. Tannock1* & G. R. Pond2 1 The lead editorial in the April 2014 issue of Annals of Oncology sets appropriate standards for acceptance of manuscripts: they should be reproducible, innovative, global and balanced. Yet in this issue are two articles that comment on adverse events associated with everolimus and exemestane in the BOLERO-2 trial [1, 2]. That trial was innovative and global, but these reports are not balanced. The original report of BOLERO-2 showed a substantial difference in progression-free survival (PFS) in favour of everolimus and exemestane compared with exemestane alone; the hazard ratio (HR) was 0.43 (P < 0.001) [3]. That analysis was subject to bias because of informative censoring, which was not balanced between the arms: almost 40% of locally assessed PFS events were deemed non-events upon central review. Further, 24% versus 6% of women on experimental versus control arms withdrew from treatment before disease progression because of toxicity or other reasons. Most patients who withdraw from treatment are not doing well and many will refuse to continue with scheduled radiologic assessments, resulting in a bias which favours the more toxic therapy [4]. Finally, an improvement in PFS is not an effective measure of benefit to patients, nor has it been shown to be a valid surrogate for overall survival or its quality. Analysis of overall survival of the BOLERO-2 trial was presented at the 2014 European Breast Cancer Conference with the finding of a modest (HR = 0.89) and non-significant difference between the arms of the study [5]. The articles by Aapro et al. [1] and by Rugo et al. [2] evaluating toxicity and its management show that there was greater toxicity in the combined everolimus and exemestane arm of the BOLERO-2 trial, including stomatitis, pneumonitis, hyperglycaemia and fatigue. Some women on the experimental arm might have had improved or maintained quality of life (QoL), and a previous analysis suggested slower decline in QoL, but this was also confounded by unbalanced informative censoring [6]. Therefore, one can only conclude that the combination of everolimus and exemestane has greater biological activity than exemestane alone, but unfortunately, adds substantial toxicity with only a small improvement in survival. Then there is the question of balanced reporting. The final sentence of one article [1] states: ‘Overall everolimus is an effective treatment option, with manageable toxicity, among patients with HR+ advanced breast …’. The second article [2] ends with the statement: ‘Understanding the time course of AEs … is particularly important given the clinical benefit obtained from adding everolimus to exemestane and the differential toxicities associated with this targeted agent’. In our lexicon, therapies that increase toxicity with minimal improvement in survival are not ‘effective treatment options’ and they do not provide ‘clinical benefit’. We suggest an alternative concluding sentence to these articles: ‘Although the combination of everolimus and exemestane | letters to the editor Princess Margaret Cancer Centre and University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada 2 Ontario Clinical Oncology Group, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada (*E-mail: [email protected]) disclosure The authors have declared no conflicts of interest. references 1. Aapro M, Andre F, Blackwell K et al. Adverse event management in patients with advanced cancer receiving oral everolimus: focus on breast cancer. Ann Oncol 2014; 25: 763–773. 2. Rugo HS, Pritchard KI, Gnant M et al. Incidence and time course of everolimusrelated adverse events in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive advanced breast cancer: insights from BOLERO-2. Ann Oncol 2014; 25: 808–815. 3. Baselga J, Campone M, Piccart M et al. Everolimus in postmenopausal hormonereceptor-positive advanced breast cancer. N Engl J Med 2012; 366: 520–529. 4. Carroll KJ. Analysis of progression-free survival in oncology trials: some common statistical issues. Pharm Stat 2007; 6: 99–113. 5. Piccart M, Hortobagyi GN, Campone M et al. Everolimus plus exemestane for hormone receptor-positive (HR+), human epidermal growth factor receptor-2-negative (HER2−) advanced breast cancer (BC): overall survival results from BOLERO-2. In: Proceeding of the 9th European Breast Cancer Conference, Brussels, Belgium, 2014. Abstract LBA1. 6. Burris HA, III, Lebrun F, Rugo HS et al. Health-related quality of life of patients with advanced breast cancer treated with everolimus plus exemestane versus placebo plus exemestane in the phase 3, randomized, controlled, BOLERO-2 trial. Cancer 2013; 119: 1908–1915. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdu371 Published online 1 August 2014 Reply to the letter to the editor ‘Everolimus, when combined with exemestane, adds toxicity with minimal benefit for women with breast cancer’ Tannock and Pond Thank you for your comments [1] regarding our papers [2, 3]. We appreciate the opportunity to respond in detail to your letter that in our opinion contains statements that do not reflect the actual Bolero-2 data. Our papers are balanced and accurately present available data. One paper reviews in detail the incidence and time course of toxicity from the combination of everolimus (EVE) and exemestane (EXE) [2], and the other gives practical guidance on how to manage these side-effects [3]. We believe these papers provide an objective assessment of both efficacy and toxicity of this novel therapy, and also represent an Volume 25 | No. 10 | October 2014 Annals of Oncology important educational service to our colleagues who are using the combination in clinical practice. In reply to your specific comments: ‘That analysis was subject to bias because of informative censoring, which was not balanced between the arms’ in reference to the interim analysis of progression-free survival (PFS) [4]. Informative censoring refers to censoring which is related to the occurrence of progression-free survival (PFS) events, for example, censoring due to start of new antineoplastic therapy. In contrast, noninformative censoring is independent of PFS. In the BOLERO-2 trial, the potential bias of informative censoring was carefully assessed. Several preplanned sensitivity analyses of PFS were conducted (e.g. by not censoring patients after start of a new anticancer therapy) and have confirmed the robustness of the primary PFS results. At the interim analysis (data cutoff 11 February 2011), a total of 365 patients (50.4% of all randomized) were censored in the primary analysis of PFS by investigator assessment [283/485 (58.4%) in the EVE arm and 82/239 (34.3%) in the placebo (PBO) arm]. Among the censored patients, 77.5% [283 total; 77.7% (n = 220) EVE + EXE and 76.8% (n = 63) PBO + EXE] were censored because they were event free at the time of analysis cutoff and still at risk of having a PFS event. These patients continued to have all protocol-scheduled assessments. Clearly, this type of censoring is noninformative. Other reasons for censoring include withdrawal of consent, loss to follow-up, start of new anticancer therapy, or event documented after ≥2 missing tumor assessments. At the interim analysis, censoring for reasons other than ‘ongoing without event’ between the two treatment arms was well balanced [22.3% (63/283) treated with EVE + EXE and 23.2% (19/82) treated with PBO + EXE]. Of the censored patients, only 10.2% in the EVE arm and 11.0% in the PBO arm were censored due to new cancer therapy added. A supportive PFS analysis by central assessment was conducted in BOLERO-2. Despite some discrepancies between central and local assessment of PFS events, central analysis supported the primary (local) analysis of PFS, and demonstrated a larger benefit from treatment with EVE and EXE compared with EXE alone. The consistency between interim and final PFS analyses [4] at 18 months of median follow-up further supports the robustness of the data from BOLERO-2. Further, 24% vs. 6% of women on experimental vs. control arms withdrew from treatment prior to disease progression because of toxicity or other reasons. Most patients who withdraw from treatment are not doing well and many will refuse to continue with scheduled radiologic assessments, resulting in a bias which favors the more toxic therapy Censoring patients who discontinue treatment because of adverse events before having a PFS event may be considered ‘informative’ and could bias the PFS estimate because PFS prognosis for patients who discontinue due to adverse events (AE) may be different from those continuing in the study at the same time point. However, in the BOLERO-2 PFS analysis, treatment discontinuation for AEs was not a censoring reason. On the contrary, patients who discontinued all study treatments for AEs continued to be followed up for PFS as per protocol. Per Volume 25 | No. 10 | October 2014 letters to the editor protocol, patients were assessed as continuing on study without any change in disease assessment schedule until disease progression/death/loss to follow-up/withdrawal of consent. In addition, patients who discontinued one study treatment because of AEs but continued to receive the second remained on-study and had all scheduled assessments per protocol. Approximately 50% of patients who discontinued due to AE had subsequent tumor assessment (see below). At the interim analysis, 6.6% (32/485) of patients receiving EVE + EXE and 2.5% (6/239) receiving PBO + EXE had permanently discontinued study treatment due to adverse events. Of these, 46.9% (15/32) in the EVE + EXE arm and 33.3% (2/6) in the PBO + EXE arm had subsequent tumor assessments. These post-treatment evaluations led to the identification of 11 additional PFS events (2 deaths and 9 progressions) in the EVE + EXE arm (i.e. in 73.3% of the 15 patients being followed) and 2 additional progressions in the PBO + EXE arm (i.e. in 100% of the 2 patients being followed). Of the patients who discontinued study treatment due to AE, 43.8% (14/32) in the EVE + EXE arm and 16.7% (1/6) in the PBO + EXE arm were later censored due to new cancer therapy added and 9.4% (3/32) in the EVE + EXE arm were lost to follow-up. Per protocol, patients stayed on study if they discontinued one of the two study treatments while continuing the other. Twenty-four percent of patients in the EVE + EXE combination arm discontinued EVE due to an adverse event (19%) or withdrawal of consent (5%). The 19% of patients who discontinued EVE due to adverse event could still continue to receive EXE alone and remain on study with no change in their tumor assessments, hence did not introducing bias in the analysis of PFS. Dr Tannock indicates that PFS is not a relevant endpoint in advanced BC, stating ‘Finally, an improvement in PFS is not an effective measure of benefit to patients, nor has it been shown to be a valid surrogate for overall survival or its quality’. Although PFS may not always be a surrogate for overall survival (OS), it is a clinically relevant end point for determining the effectiveness of a therapeutic agent. In addition, PFS is not confounded by post-treatment therapies, and remains a standard end point in the majority of clinical trials assessing treatment efficacy in the metastatic setting. In contrast, OS is influenced by poststudy treatment in an uncontrolled setting. For first- and second-line treatments where survival prognosis is typically several years, the dilution effects of poststudy treatment on OS are dramatic and greatly inflate the study size needed to demonstrate survival benefit. Indeed, survival benefits have not been demonstrated for effective and approved hormone therapies given following initial progression. Based on the non-significant difference in OS between arms in BOLERO-2, Dr Tannock concludes that ‘Although the combination of everolimus and exemestane has greater anti-tumour activity than exemestane alone, it leads to only a modest improvement in survival in an unselected population and it adds substantial toxicity’. Sample size for the BOLERO-2 trial was driven by the primary end point, PFS, and not by OS. Powering this trial for the observed difference in OS would have required a much larger trial, with the doi:10.1093/annonc/mdu373 | letter to the editor disadvantages of significant time, cost, and patient lives. The median OS in BOLERO-2 showed a nonsignificant 4.4-month prolongation with EVE + EXE compared with PBO + EXE (P = 0.1426) [5]. This difference is consistent with the benefit observed for the primary end point of PFS (4.6-month increase in median investigator-assessed PFS). Indeed, the median OS seen in BOLERO-2, despite the use of additional treatments after progression, is one of the longest seen in phase III trials of hormone receptor-positive advanced breast cancer. No existing phase III trial has shown a statistically significant OS benefit in this setting following prior treatment with a nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor (AI). The maintenance in QoL in BOLERO-2 provides additional support for the improved clinical efficacy outcomes in the EVE + EXE arm; most AEs were grades 1 or 2. Of the toxicities cited in the letter, the incidence of grade 3/4 events were: stomatitis (8%/0), hyperglycemia (4%/<1%), fatigue (3%/<1%), pneumonitis (3%/0). We remain confident that the addition of EVE to an AI is a valid option for some postmenopausal patients with disease progression after a nonsteroidal AI, since it significantly prolongs PFS by a clinically meaningful median interval of 4.6 months. On-going translational research efforts should allow us to better define in which patients to use this combination. To conclude, we have presented a careful and balanced analysis of side-effects and recommendations on how to mitigate them. There can be different medical perspectives about what is important, but the patient is the final judge. The decision to treat any patient with any drug or combination must take into account the possible benefits and the relevant toxicities associated, and must be made on a case-by-case basis. These comments will appear later this year in the statements of the Advanced Breast Cancer −2 (ABC-2) consensus meeting. | letters to the editor Annals of Oncology H. S. Rugo1* & M. Aapro2 1 University of California San Francisco Helen Diller Family Comprehensive Cancer Center, San Francisco, USA; 2 Institut Multidisciplinaire D’Oncologie, Genolier, Switzerland (*E-mail: [email protected]). disclosure Both authors have participated in studies of Novartis and acted as consultants for Novartis. references 1. Tannock I, Pond G. Everolimus, when combined with exemestane, adds toxicity with minimal benefit for women with breast cancer. Ann Oncol 2014; 25: 2096. 2. Rugo HS, Pritchard KI, Gnant M et al. Incidence and time course of everolimusrelated adverse events in postmenopausal women with hormone receptorpositive advanced breast cancer: insights from BOLERO-2. Ann Oncol 2014; 25: 808–815. 3. Aapro M, Andre F, Blackwell K et al. Adverse event management in patients with advanced cancer receiving oral everolimus: focus on breast cancer. Ann Oncol 2014; 25: 763–773. 4. Baselga J, Campone M, Piccart M et al. Everolimus in postmenopausal hormone-receptor-positive advanced breast cancer. N Engl J Med 2012; 366: 520–529. 5. Piccart M, Hortobagyi G, Campone M et al. Everolimus plus exemestane for hormone receptor-positive (HR+), human epidermal growth factor receptor-2negative (HER2-) advanced breast cancer (BC): overall survival results from BOLERO-2. Oral Presentation Abstract #LBA1. European Breast Cancer Conference (EBCC-9), 2014, Glasgow, Scotland. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdu373 Published online 1 August 2014 Volume 25 | No. 10 | October 2014