Download 2014 Northeast Storm Conference Program

39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
T h e L y n d o n S t a t e C o l l e g e L o c a l C h a p t e r OF THE
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
1001 College Road
Lyndonville, Vermont 05851
March 7, 2014
Dear Colleagues and Friends,
On behalf of the Lyndon State College Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society and
National Weather Association (LSC AMS & NWA), I welcome you to the 39th Annual Northeastern Storm
Conference (NESC) at the Holiday Inn Rutland/Killington in Rutland, Vermont.
The NESC serves as an excellent platform for professionals and students alike to share new ideas with
individuals from all sectors of meteorology. This functions to unify the many facets of the meteorological
community, and to expose students to a wide range of topics and methods. The Saturday afternoon Panel
Discussion offers a unique opportunity for students to gain valuable insight into the various paths a meteorological
career can take.
Our Ice Breaker Speaker on Friday evening is Matt Noyes. Matt is the Chief Meteorologist for New
England Cable News (NECN), where he has worked since 2002. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in
Meteorology from Cornell University, and is a member of both the American Meteorological Society and the
National Weather Association. Matt has traveled across New England to bring the science of meteorology into
school classrooms, receiving a commendation from the Massachusetts State Senate for his educational efforts with
children.
Saturday night’s Banquet Speaker is Christopher Joosen, Lead Snow Ranger at the Mount Washington
Avalanche Center in New Hampshire. Chris has been forecasting avalanche potential for the White Mountain
National Forest’s Mount Washington Avalanche Center in Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines for the past 20
winters. In 2001 he became the Lead Snow Ranger and Director, overseeing the Center's avalanche forecasting,
search and rescue, and avalanche education efforts.
To close the conference on Sunday morning is Bryan Shaw. Bryan is the weekend morning meteorologist
at WIVB 4, the CBS affiliate in Buffalo, New York. He graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology
from Lyndon State College in 2008, and has quickly worked his way up in the field of broadcast meteorology.
Before joining WIVB in 2011, Bryan started his career at WOAY in Beckley, WV in 2008, moving to WOWK in
Huntington, WV in 2009.
The amount of dedication and work various people put into this conference is remarkable. I would like to
thank the entire LSC AMS & NWA including our faculty advisor, Dr. Jason Shafer, for their efforts in making this
year’s conference a success. In particular, I would like to acknowledge the LSC AMS & NWA executive board
who has worked very hard since last spring to bring this wonderful event to life. As always, the LSC AMS &
NWA is very thankful to the Lyndon State College Student Government Association, which provides a portion of
our funding for the NESC, and to the Holiday Inn Rutland/Killington for all of their hard work to ensure that the
weekend runs as smoothly as possible. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to thank all of the speakers,
presenters, vendors/recruiters, and attendees for all of your spectacular information and insight.
Every year, we rely heavily upon your input in the planning of this conference. With this in mind, I ask
that you please complete the online questionnaire at www.tinyurl.com/NESCEval when you have the opportunity.
Positive feedback and suggestions for improvement would both be greatly appreciated.
We hope that you will find this year’s Northeastern Storm Conference to be a very informative and
rewarding experience, and that you will join us again for the 40th anniversary conference in 2015!
Warmest Regards,
Christopher McCray
President and NESC Chairperson
Lyndon State College AMS&NWA
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
1
th
39 ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE
Table of Contents
Important Links
2
Agenda
3
Map of the Holiday Inn Rutland/Killington
10
A Special Thank You
11
Guest List
12
Vendors/Recruiters
18
Keynote Speakers
20
Oral Presentation Abstracts
21
Workshop: Climate Communication by Meteorologists
67
Poster Presentation Abstracts
68
Notes
87
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
2
39th ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE
IMPORTANT LINKS
Forecast Contest: www.tinyurl.com/NESCForecast
Saturday forecasts for Rutland, VT (KRUT) are due by 10:30 AM Saturday. The most accurate
forecaster will win a copy of RAOB Operational software (www.raob.com) – a $1,060 value!
Winner will be announced during Sunday morning opening remarks.
Conference Evaluation: www.tinyurl.com/NESCEval
We hope to make improvements each year to the conference. Please fill out the evaluation and
questionnaire at the above address to provide feedback on conference location, speakers,
organization, and anything else you’d like to add.
Conference Guidebook App
New this year, we have made the entire conference schedule available on the mobile application
“Guidebook,” available in the App Store, Google Play, and online! Find the app on your device and
search for Northeastern Storm Conference to create your personalized schedule for the weekend.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
3
th
39 ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE
AGENDA
FRIDAY 7 MARCH 2014
Centre Foyer
2:00 PM – 8:00 PM
Registration and Check-In
Centre Ballroom
8:15 PM – 8:30 PM
Opening Remarks
8:30 PM – 9:30 PM
Friday Night Ice Breaker
Speaker: Matt Noyes
Centre Ballroom/Centre Foyer
9:30 PM – 10:30 PM
Friday Night Social
Refreshments/ice cream will be served
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
4
SATURDAY 8 MARCH 2014
Paynter’s Restaurant
7:00 AM – 8:00 AM
Breakfast
Centre Ballroom
8:05 AM – 8:10 AM
Opening Remarks
8:10 AM – 8:20 AM
Morning Weather Briefing
Governor’s Room
Vermont Room
Historical Weather Session – HI1
Lake Effect Session – LE1
8:30 AM – 8:45 AM HI1.1
November 1913 Great Lakes Superstorm
Robert Hamilton, NOAA/NWS Buffalo, NY
Page 21
8:30 AM – 8:45 AM LE1.1
Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems 2013-14
Field Campaign Review
Scott Steiger, SUNY Oswego
Page 22
8:45 AM – 9:00 AM HI1.2
Some Like it Hot! Some Like it Cold! Four
Billion Years of Climate Change on Planet
Earth: The “Cook’s Tour”
Jonathan Byrne, Rising Sun Consulting
Page 23
8:45 AM – 9:00 AM LE1.2
Comparing Crystals: How Two Similar OWLeS
Events Produced Different Snow Crystal Types
Molly Matott and Ryan Kiely, SUNY Oswego
Page 24
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM HI1.3
Hurricane Sandy-like Tropical Cyclones in the
Historical Record
Reginald Johnson, Cornell University
Page 25
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM LE1.3
The Causes and Effects of Outflow Boundaries
on Lake-Effect Snow Bands East of Lake
Ontario During the OWLeS Field Campaign
Jordan Rabinowitz and Jake Mulholland,
SUNY Oswego
Page 26
9:15 AM – 9:30 AM HI1.4
Seventy Five Years Later: Little Known,
Updated, and New Information Related to the
Great New England Hurricane of 1938
Lourdes Avilés, Plymouth State University
Page 27
9:15 AM – 9:30 AM LE1.4
7 January 2014 LLAP Snow Band OWLeS Case
Study: An Unusually Electric Event
Daniela Pirraglia and Kayla Fennimore,
SUNY Oswego
Page 28
9:30 AM – 9:45 AM HI1.5
The Foundering of the HMS Ontario
Robert Hamilton, NOAA/NWS Buffalo, NY
Page 29
9:30 AM – 9:45 AM LE1.5
Forecasts Gone Wrong: A look at two-lake effect
snow cases off Lake Ontario during the 20132014 winter season
Andrew Janiszeski and Michael Vuotto,
SUNY Oswego
Page 30
th
39 Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
5
Green Mountain Room
9:45 AM – 10:30 AM
Poster Session
Forecasts Due – www.tinyurl.com/NESCForecast
Governor’s Room
Vermont Room
Tropical Meteorology Session – TM1
Winter Weather Session I – WN1
10:30 AM – 10:45 AM TM1.1
Upper-Tropospheric Precursors Associated with
Subtropical Cyclone Formation in the Northern
Atlantic Basin
Alicia Bentley, University at Albany
Page 31
10:30 AM – 10:45 AM WN1.1
Comparisons of Lake-Effect and Non-LakeEffect Snow Events at Buffalo, NY in Relation to
National Weather Service Blizzard Criteria
David Zaff, NOAA/NWS Buffalo, NY
Page 32
10:45 AM – 11:00 AM TM1.2
Analysis on the Origins of East Pacific Easterly
Waves
Ernesto Findlay, University at Albany
Page 33
10:45 AM – 11:00 AM WN1.2
Observational Analysis and Numerical
Simulations of a Lake-Effect Snow Event over
Lake Tahoe
Neil Laird, Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Page 34
11:00 AM – 11:15 AM TM1.3
Anticyclonic Wavebreaking and the MJO
Kyle MacRitchie, SUNY College at
Oneonta/University at Albany
Page 35
11:00 AM – 11:15 AM WN1.3
The Uber Jet and the Widespread Disruptive Ice
Storm of 21-23 December 2013
Lance Bosart, University at Albany
Page 36
11:15 AM – 11:30 AM TM1.4
Long-Term Mitigation and Recovery
Management for Hurricanes and Post-Tropical
Cyclones in Southern New England and Long
Island
Erin Norris, University of New Haven
Page 37
11:15 AM – 11:30 AM WN1.4
Developing a Climatology of Snowfall Events in
Oneonta, NY
David Loveless, SUNY College at Oneonta
Page 38
11:30 AM – 11:45 AM TM1.5
A Climatology of Central American Gyres
Philippe Papin, University at Albany
Page 39
11:30 AM – 11:45 AM WN1.5
The Role of Warm-Air Advection in The
Southern New England Blizzard of 2005
Steven Perez, University at Albany
Page 40
Paynter’s Restaurant
11:45 AM – 1:00 PM
Lunch
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
6
Governor’s Room
Vermont Room
Severe Weather Session I – SV1
Winter Weather Session II – WN2
1:00 PM – 1:15 PM SV1.1
Aerial Damage Survey Comparison of The
Historic El Reno and Moore 2013 Tornadoes
Nolan Atkins, Lyndon State College
Page 41
1:00 PM – 1:15 PM WN2.1
Analysis of the Meteorological Precursors to the
January 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming
Hannah Attard, University at Albany
Page 42
1:15 PM – 1:30 PM SV1.2
Aerial Damage Survey Analysis of the 20 May
2013 Moore Tornado
Kelly Butler and Kayla Flynn, Lyndon State
College
Page 43
1:15 PM – 1:30 PM WN2.2
Dynamical and Thermodynamic Processes
Contributing to Thundersnow Events
Kyle Meier, University at Albany
Page 44
1:30 PM – 1:45 PM SV1.3
Outflow-Boundary Related Waterspouts:
Detection, Timely Warning, and Impact on
Public Safety
Matthew Cappucci, Sturgis Public Charter
School
Page 45
1:30 PM – 1:45 PM WN2.3
Cold Surges Along the African Highlands
Caitlin Crossett, Hobart & William Smith
Colleges
Page 46
1:45 PM – 2:00 PM SV1.4
The Spectrum of Progressive Derecho
Formation Environments.
Corey Guastini, University at Albany
Page 47
1:45 PM – 2:00 PM WN2.4
The Effects of Downsloping on Storm
Precipitation Distributions in the Capital
District of New York State
Kyle Pallozzi, University at Albany
Page 48
2:00 PM – 2:15 PM SV1.5
Independent Verification of SPC Convective
Outlooks
Matthew Vaughan, University at Albany
Page 49
2:00 PM – 2:15 PM WN2.5
An Analysis of Arctic Climate and the Intense
Arctic Cyclone of Early August 2012
Adam Turchioe, University at Albany
Page 50
Green Mountain Room
2:15 PM – 3:00 PM
Break and Poster Session
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
7
Governor’s Room
Vermont Room
Severe Weather Session II – SV2
Modeling/Remote Sensing Session – MR1
3:00 PM – 3:15 PM SV2.1
The Elevated Mixed Layer and its Role in the 11
September 2013 New England Severe
Thunderstorm Event
Michael Ekster, NOAA/NWS, Gray, ME
Page 51
3:00 PM – 3:15 PM MR1.1
The Accuracy of High Resolution Forecast
Models During the OWLeS Project
Eric Drewitz and Philip Pascarelli, SUNY
Oswego
Page 52
3:15 PM – 3:30 PM SV2.2
Weather Impacts Aloft: An Aviation Perspective
of Thunderstorms over the Northeast U.S. 11
September, 2013
Michael Abair, NOAA/NWS Boston CWSU
Page 53
3:15 PM – 3:30 PM MR1.2
Coupling of Climate to Clouds, Land-Use,
Precipitation and Snow
Alan Betts, Atmospheric Research
Page 54
3:30 PM – 3:45 PM SV2.3
A Case Study of the 30 June – 1 July 2011 Lake
Michigan-Crossing MCSs
Macy Howarth, Hobart & William Smith
Colleges
Page 55
3:30 PM – 3:45 PM MR1.3
Observing Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of
Wind Farm Impacts with Satellite Data
Ronald Harris, University at Albany
Page 56
3:45 PM – 4:00 PM SV2.4
A Multiscale Analysis of the 29 May 2013 Severe
Weather Outbreak near Albany, New York
Nicholas Metz, Hobart & William Smith
Colleges
Page 57
3:45 PM – 4:00 PM MR1.4
Composite Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors
Matthew Lazzara, Antarctic Meteorological
Research Center, Space Science and Engineering
Center, University of Wisconsin – Madison
Page 58
4:00 PM – 4:15 PM SV2.5
Cookie-Cutter Weather Warnings: The
Discontinuities and ‘Holes’ of Weather
Warnings
Matthew Cappucci, Sturgis Public Charter
School
Page 59
4:00 PM – 4:15 PM MR1.5
Ensemble-Based Analysis of the Large-Scale
Processes Associated with Multiple Extreme
Weather Events over North America During
Late October 2007
Benjamin Moore, University at Albany
Page 60
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
8
Governor’s Room
4:30 PM – 5:30 PM
Panel Discussion
Luigi Meccariello
National Weather Service – Albany, NY
Dr. Matthew Lazzara
AMRC/SSEC - University of Wisconsin – Madison
Dan Dowling
WCAX-TV, Burlington, VT
MAJ Douglass Macpherson
United States Military Academy (West Point)
Green Mountain Room
5:30 PM – 7:00 PM
Lyndon State College Alumni Reception
Centre Ballroom
7:00 PM – 9:00 PM
Banquet Dinner
Speaker: Christopher Joosen
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
9
SUNDAY 9 MARCH 2014
Paynter’s Restaurant
7:00 AM – 8:00 AM
Breakfast
Centre Ballroom
8:05 AM – 8:10 AM
Opening Remarks and Forecast Results
8:10 AM – 8:20 AM
Morning Weather Briefing
Governor’s Room
Vermont Room
Climatology Session – CL1
Operational Meteorology Session – OP1
8:30 AM – 8:45 AM CL1.1
The Effects of Extreme Precipitation Events on
Climatology
Pamela Eck, Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Page 61
8:30 AM – 8:45 AM OP1.1
The Meteorologist as an Expert Witness
Jason Shafer, Lyndon State College
Page 62
8:45 AM – 9:00 AM CL1.2
Effects of Green-Up on Spring and Summer
Maximum Temperature in Northern New
Hampshire from 1989 to 2012
Alyssa Hammond, Plymouth State University
Page 63
8:45 AM – 9:00 AM OP1.2
Broadcast Meteorology: Where Do We Go From
Here?
Lou McNally, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical
University
Page 64
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM CL1.3
Influence of Synoptic Cold Fronts on MicroScale Conditions in Watkins Glen Gorge
Chad Hecht, Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Page 65
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM OP1.3
Place Attachment and Hurricane Sandy: Public
Perception of Climate Change by Those Who
Personally Experienced
Adam Rainear, Rutgers University
Page 66
Centre Ballroom
9:30 AM – 11:30 AM
Workshop: Climate Communication by Meteorologists
Page 67
Centre Foyer
11:30 AM – 11:45 AM
Snack Break
Centre Ballroom
11:45 AM – 12:45 PM
Sunday Keynote Speaker
Speaker: Bryan Shaw
12:45 PM – 1:00 PM
Closing Remarks
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
10
th
39 ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE
Map of the Holiday Inn Rutland/Killington
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
11
A SPECIAL THANK YOU
To Lyndon State AMS&NWA Faculty Adviser Dr. Jason Shafer for his invaluable support and advice
throughout the year.
To the faculty and staff of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at Lyndon State College for their support
and respect for the club.
To Lyndon State AMS&NWA Historian Sarah Murphy for designing this year’s creative conference booklet
(and matching nametags!).
To the LSC Student Government Association for their generous contribution to help make this conference
possible year after year.
To the members of the LSC AMS&NWA executive board and club as a whole for their incredible role in
planning and putting on this conference, and for their friendship and support through the year.
To the staff at the Holiday Inn Rutland-Killington, for helping us run a successful and comfortable
conference for the past three years.
To our guest speakers, Matt Noyes, Chris Joosen, and Bryan Shaw for their remarkable willingness to share
their knowledge and experiences with everyone and lending their prestige to the conference.
To all of the poster and paper presenters at the conference, for sharing your hard work, furthering the science,
and giving this conference the great name it has earned in our community.
To all of the students, professionals, and friends who attend the conference, for your eagerness to learn and
enthusiasm to meet new people, making this all very worthwhile.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
12
th
39 ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE
Guest List
Christopher
Josh
Haley
Josh
Amanda
Arianna
Sarah
Stephen
Jason
Nolan
Bruce
Frederic
Janel
Brian
Daniel
Ryan
Benjamin
Carina
Kelly
Kayla
Robert
Jordan
Allison
Anthony
Francis
Jackson
Scott
Aaron
Christian
Tyler
Jeremy
Kayla
Jennifer
AJ
Eric
Brandon
Sean
William
Falicia
McCray
Cingranelli
Bouley
Searles
Curran
Varuolo-Clarke
Murphy
Decatur
Shafer
Atkins
Berryman
Emigh
Hanrahan
Papa
Dowling
Longe
Adkins
Alden
Butler
Flynn
Gould
Kaiser
LaFleur
Macari III
McInerney
Mowry
Myerson
Perry
Plaud
Scheibenpflug
Sousa
St. Germain
Strait
Waterman
Weglarz
White
White
Wilson
Woody
Lyndon State AMS/NWA President
Lyndon State AMS/NWA Vice President
Lyndon State AMS/NWA Secretary
Lyndon State AMS/NWA Treasurer
Lyndon State AMS/NWA Public Relations
Lyndon State AMS/NWA Community Outreach
Lyndon State AMS/NWA Historian
Lyndon State AMS/NWA Representative
Lyndon State AMS/NWA Faculty Advisor
Lyndon State College Faculty
Lyndon State College Faculty
Lyndon State College Faculty
Lyndon State College Faculty
Lyndon State College Staff
Lyndon State College/WCAX-TV
Lyndon State College Admissions
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State College
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
Colton
William
Matthew
Liam
Holly
Joshua
Alan
Thom
Christine
Stephen
Reginald
Lou
Brooke
Katherine
Caitlin
Zachary
Pamela
Raleigh
Chad
Macy
Neil
James
Nicholas
Matthew
Christopher
David
Samantha
Benjamin
Rosa
Connor
Jimmy
Jennifer
Scott
Megan
Tara
Brian
Megan
Anthony
Emily
Timothy
Nicholas
Jean
Christopher
Zercher
Alexander
Cappucci
Kelleher
Silva
Fanjoy
Betts
Davis
Spencer
Weber
Johnson
McNally
Adams
Coughlin
Crossett
Dameron
Eck
Grysko
Hecht
Howarth
Laird
Mandart
Metz
Sanders
Blossom
Bludis
Connolly
Bonner
Brothman
Dearth
Fowler
Hane
Kleebauer
McAuliffe
Minni
Nice
Nielsen
Richardson
Rosenthal
Springer
Strickland
Vivola
Joosen
13
Lyndon State College
Lyndon State Prospective Student
Lyndon State Prospective Student
Lyndon State Prospective Student
Lyndon State Prospective Student
202nd Weather Flight Mass. ANG
Atmospheric Research
Bentley University
Buffalo State College
Capital Region AMS
Cornell University
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Independent
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Millersville University
Mount Washington Avalanche Center
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
Matt
Casey
Luigi
Michael
Robert
David
Michael
Eleanor
Sarah
Lourdes
Eric
Matthew
Michael
Jason
Kevin
Sean
Dave
Evan
Lisa
Danny
Jacob
Megan
Kristen
Liana
Alyssa
Christopher
William
Alex
Ryan
Brendon
Eric
Brian
Eric
Kevin
Kyle
Sam
Vanesa
Erin
Zachary
Rachel
Vanessa
Michael
Jonathan
Noyes
Hecker
Meccariello
Abair
Hamilton
Zaff
Ekster
Vallier-Talbot
Al-Momar
Avilés
Brill
Cann
Clair
Cordeira
Cronin
Daigneault
Delahunty
Delhay
Doner
DuBois
Fedors
Godfrey
Guillemette
Haddad
Hammond
Harle
Henneberg
Herbst
Hevey
Hoch
Hoffman
Kawzenuk
Kelsey
Lupo
Martin
Miller
Przybylo
Rinehart
Ruggiero
Sass
Urango
Wessler
Byrne
14
New England Cable News
New England Regional Weather Service
NOAA/NWS Albany, NY
NOAA/NWS Boston CWSU
NOAA/NWS Buffalo, NY
NOAA/NWS Buffalo, NY
NOAA/NWS Gray, ME
NOAA/NWS Taunton, MA
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Plymouth State University
Rising Sun Consulting
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
Michael
Paul
Erik
Michael
James
Matthew
Rebecca
Sherilyn
Michael
Patrick
Colleen
Adam
Joseph
Nicole
Kevin
Britney
Stephanie
Jessica
Randy
Katelynn
Chyna
Daniel
Stephen
Jung Won
Aidan
Cecilia
Jill
Chelsy
Scott
Jacob
Patricia
Briana
Kaylee
Amanda
Anthony
Jerome
Mike
Melissa
David
Matthew
Christopher
Andrew
Shannon
Beam
Beam
Chan
Chen
Danco
DeLucia
Evrard
Graham
Lee
Luce
McHugh
Rainear
Slezak
Tallman
Tesoro
Truempy
van Oppen
Camuto
Chase
Conley
Glenn
Grosche
Jessup
Kim
Kuroski
McCaffrey
Reynolds
Richley
Rochette
Sojda
Van Buren
Walker
Wendt
Baum
Baum
Blechman
Furch
Godek
Loveless
Makower-Brown
Morrill
Sardella
Scully
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
15
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
Rutgers University
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Brockport
SUNY Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta
Jessica
Jillian
Kyle
Deanna
Mark
Andrew
Shelby
Lauren
Matthew
Eric
Kayla
Richard
Andrew
Ryan
Tyler
Molly
Jake
Philip
Tyler
Stephen
Daniela
Jordan
Christina
Richard
Alfred
Scott
Brian
James
Dillon
Michael
Charles
Brian
Daniel
Nicole
Michael
Josh
Taylor
Kevin
Jessica
Andrew
William
Breanna
Hannah
Topal
Young
MacRitchie
Apps
Becker
Calvi
Clark
Cutler
Dinwoodie
Drewitz
Fenimore
Garuckas
Janiszeski
Kiely
Kranz
Matott
Mulholland
Pascarelli
Pelle
Piechowski
Pirraglia
Rabinowitz
Reis
Russell
Stamm
Steiger
Thayer
Trimm
Ulrich
Vuotto
Argento
Camarda
Caputi
Casamassina
Colbert
Farber
Mandelbaum
Montalvo
Quickle
Simakov
Verity
Zavadoff
Attard
16
SUNY Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta
SUNY Oneonta / UAlbany
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Oswego
SUNY Stony Brook
SUNY Stony Brook
SUNY Stony Brook
SUNY Stony Brook
SUNY Stony Brook
SUNY Stony Brook
SUNY Stony Brook
SUNY Stony Brook
SUNY Stony Brook
SUNY Stony Brook
SUNY Stony Brook
SUNY Stony Brook
University at Albany, SUNY
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
Alicia
Christine
Lance
Kristen
Ernesto
Alexander
Corey
Kurt
Ronald
Daniel
Ross
Kyle
Benjamin
Rachel
Kyle
Philippe
Steven
Brian
Adam
Matthew
Steven
Raymond
Erin
Matthew
Douglass
David
Frank
Anthony
Bryan
Bentley
Bloecker
Bosart
Corbosiero
Findlay
Gallagher
Guastini
Hansen
Harris
Keyser
Lazear
Meier
Moore
O'Donnell
Pallozzi
Papin
Perez
Tang
Turchioe
Vaughan
Schmidt
Bradley
Norris
Lazzara
MacPherson
Haliczer
Notarbartolo
Sambucci
Shaw
17
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University at Albany, SUNY
University of Connecticut
University of Massachusetts
University of New Haven
University of Wisconsin - Madison
USMA - West Point
Western Connecticut State University
Western Connecticut State University
Western Connecticut State University
WIVB-TV, Buffalo, NY
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
18
th
39 ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE
Vendors/Recruiters
American Meteorological Society (AMS) Books
At the AMS Publications booth you can preview various AMS Books and journal issues as
well as purchase signed copies of "Taken by Storm, 1938: A Social and Meteorological History of
the Great New England Hurricane," by Dr. Lourdes Avilés of Plymouth State University. The book
was recently released for the 75th anniversary of the historic storm and has received much press
attention as well as the CHOICE Award from Atmospheric Science Librarians International. Dr.
Avilés will be signing copies during breaks.
202nd Weather Flight – Massachusetts Air National Guard
Air Force Meteorologists and Weather Technicians deliver accurate, relevant, and timely
environmental information, products, and services anywhere in the world. They directly impact
military decision superiority by enhancing predictive battlespace awareness and enabling military
commanders at all levels to anticipate and exploit the battlefield environment, from the ground to
the sun. The 202nd Weather flight, stationed at Otis Air National Guard Base on Cape Cod, is
responsible for oversight and management of weather support to the Massachusetts Air and Army
National Guard. Recent state emergencies they have provided weather support for include the
recovery effort from the June 1st 2011 Springfield tornado, Hurricane Irene, “Snowtober” (October
29th 2011 nor’easter), Hurricane Sandy, and the Blizzard of 2013. Besides providing
meteorological support to the Mass National guard, they have a federal mission of providing
weather support to the 42nd infantry Division (New York National Guard) and the 86th Infantry
Brigade Combat Team (Vermont National Guard). Information will be on hand about the 202nd
Weather Flight and Air Force Weather missions along with information on training, equipment and
services.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
19
Plymouth State University – MS in Applied Meteorology
The Master of Science (MS) in Applied Meteorology graduate degree program will prepare
you with the latest knowledge and research skills in many core areas of operational meteorology
that are needed to provide modern weather support to a wide variety of customers. You’ll learn
from dedicated, experienced faculty members who work closely with students like you to meet the
regional and national needs for professional meteorologists. The curriculum requires a minimum of
30 credits and contains a thesis or non-thesis degree option. Except for a one-credit seminar each
semester and thesis or independent study research credits, there are no specific courses required for
degree completion. Select your choices from a variety of fields. With rolling admission, you may
start your program during any term, although it is best to apply for the fall semester by January 31
for priority consideration for graduate assistantships. However, you may take up to 12 master-level
credits before being admitted to Plymouth State. Financial aid is available to qualified students.
University at Albany, SUNY – Graduate Program in Atmospheric Sciences
Faculty supporting the graduate program in Atmospheric Sciences in the University at
Albany are scientists from the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences (DAES)
and the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center (ASRC). The ASRC and the local office of the
National Weather Service (NWS) are both located in the same building, which is within easy
walking distance of the DAES. This combination of scientists from two distinct but related
institutions gives the University at Albany the largest program of education and research in the
atmospheric sciences in New York State and one of the largest in the U.S.
The current group of scientists cover a broad range of research interests in the atmospheric
and environmental sciences that is organized under three broad headings: Synoptic and Mesoscale
Meteorology, Climate and Environmental Systems, and Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
Faculty are funded externally by a variety of agencies such as the National Science
Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the
Department of Energy (DOE), the Air Force Office for Scientific Research (AFOSR) and the
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The DAES has been particularly successful at mobilizing
funds to support collaborations with the National Weather Service through the CSTAR program.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
20
th
39 ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE
Keynote Speakers
Friday Night Ice Breaker
Matt Noyes
Matt Noyes is the Chief Meteorologist for New England Cable News (NECN), where he has
worked since 2002. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology from Cornell University,
and is a member of both the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather
Association. Matt has traveled across New England to bring the science of meteorology into school
classrooms, receiving a commendation from the Massachusetts State Senate for his educational
efforts with children. Before joining NECN, Matt was the Morning Meteorologist at NewsChannel
34 in Binghamton, NY and a meteorologist at NewsChannel 9 in Syracuse, NY.
Saturday Night Banquet Speaker
Christopher Joosen
Christopher Joosen holds a Government and Public Policy B.A. from Eastern Connecticut
State University (1989). Following his degree he came to the mountains fulltime and has been
working on Mount Washington ever since. He has been forecasting avalanche potential for the
White Mountain National Forest’s Mount Washington Avalanche Center in Tuckerman and
Huntington Ravines for the past 20 winters. In 2001 he became the Lead Snow Ranger and
Director overseeing the Center's avalanche forecasting, search and rescue, and avalanche education
efforts. During his 25 years in the Presidential Mountain Range he has witnessed and endured some
of Washington’s most extreme weather. Through this time he has gained the utmost respect for
severe conditions and how it impacts people and the landscape they visit.”
Sunday Morning Speaker
Bryan Shaw
Bryan Shaw is the weekend morning meteorologist at WIVB 4, the CBS affiliate in Buffalo,
New York. He graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology from Lyndon State College in
2008, and has quickly worked his way up in the field of broadcast meteorology. Before joining
WIVB in 2011, Bryan started his career at WOAY in Beckley, WV in 2008, moving to WOWK in
Huntington, WV in 2009.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
21
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
8:30 AM – 8:45 AM
November 1913 Great Lakes Superstorm
Bob Hamilton
National Weather Service
Buffalo, New York
The great November storm of 1913 stands as the deadliest and most destructive natural disaster in
recorded Great Lakes history. The powerful and unpredictable storm produced a blizzard, hurricane
force winds and thirty five foot waves while sinking or grounding nearly forty ships and claiming
over two hundred and fifty lives. The four day cyclone wreaked havoc on all of the Great Lakes,
which in the early 20th century, stood as one of the most important commercial traffic areas in the
country. Financial losses, in modern day currency, exceeded over $116 billion.
The responsibility of forecasting and warning for this devastating storm fell onto the shoulders of
the fledgling Weather Bureau, which had been organized by President Grant in 1870 for just such
an occurrence, but meteorology was still in its infancy at this time. The Norwegian cyclone model
was still a few years away from being introduced, so the concept of fronts and conveyor belts was
not known, let alone understood. Government forecasters had to rely on crude advection schemes,
including time consuming analogs, to accompany the cumbersome process of analyzing twice daily
surface maps. All of the forecasts were issued from the Weather Bureau headquarters in
Washington D.C. and relayed to small local weather offices via telegraph and early telephone. The
forecasts and warnings were then relayed to the primary recipients, the shipping industry, by a
combination of colored flags that were hung close to the harbors for highest visibility.
The storms development and impacts will be analyzed during this presentation while exposing the
crucial limitations and subsequent forecast problems experienced by the early Weather Bureau.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
22
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
8:30 AM – 8:45 AM
Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems 2013-14 Field Campaign Review
Scott Steiger
SUNY Oswego
Oswego, New York
During the winter of 2013-14, scientists from eleven institutions gathered in upstate New York to
conduct a first-of-its-kind field project on Lake Ontario-generated lake-effect snowstorms. The
University of Wyoming King Air aircraft, heavily instrumented for in-situ and remote sensing of the
atmosphere, three Doppler on Wheels (DOW) radars, five (four mobile) rawinsonde systems, and
the University of Alabama – Huntsville Mobile Integrated Profiling System (MIPS) were some of
the key facilities used to study lake-effect storms. The key objectives were focused in three areas:
long lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) storms, upwind and downwind causes and effects of lake-effect
systems, and orographic influences on these storms.
Mother Nature cooperated almost perfectly for the principal investigators to collect observations.
The weather was mild for the public outreach day in Penn Yan, NY on 4 December, but then turned
colder and we had our first opportunity to sample the lake-effect by 7 December. This was a weak
event but was a good “shake-down” intensive observation period (IOP) to do a test run using all of
the equipment. A large amplitude, blocking upper-level ridge over western North America, with a
downstream trough to the east, dominated the synoptic pattern for most of the remainder of the field
project. This trough kept an almost constant supply of arctic air over and near Lake Ontario,
sometimes originating from cross-polar flow. The wind pattern was dominated by westerly flow in
the boundary layer, leading to many LLAP events over and near the Tug Hill east of the lake.
However, patience paid off as more northerly flow became established in mid-January leading to
some excellent sampling of Lake Ontario - Finger Lake connections. There was a total of 24 IOPs
during the OWLeS field campaign, more than double what climatology suggested would occur!
The goal of this presentation is to discuss how an event was studied, from forecasting it to
coordination of facilities during the event. The PIs and students from many institutions with
differing objectives worked well together and look forward to the data analysis stage of the project.
Some initial results will be shown as well.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
23
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
8:45 AM – 9:00 AM
Some Like it Hot! Some like it Cold! Four Billion Years of Climate Change on Planet Earth:
The “Cook’s Tour”
Jonathan Byrne
Rising Sun Consulting
Boston, Massachusetts
Beginning with the formation of the terrestrial atmosphere at the commencement of the Archeaneon
at approximately 4 x 109 yr BP, the earth’s climate has been subject to significant spatial and
temporal oscillations ranging in scale from decades to millions of years. Such oscillations are the
product of a complex interaction of a spectrum forcings both internal and external to the earth’s
environment. These forcings include shifts in earth-sun geometry (Milankovitch cycles), solar
cycles, fluctuations in atmospheric composition, changes in the lithosphere and hydrosphere
including plate tectonics, volcanism, orogensis, and shifts in oceanic composition impacting overturning circulation patterns. Consequently climate oscillations have ranged from ice free “hothouse”
periods when the mean global surface temperature has exceeded 30 deg celsius during the Archean
eon, to the so-called “snowball earth” periods during the Proterozoic era between approximately 7 x
108 yr BP and 6 x 108 yr BP. The objective of this presentation will be to provide an historic
overview of climate change within the context of interrelationships between earth systems.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
24
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
8:45 AM – 9:00 AM
Comparing Crystals: How Two Similar OWLeS Events Produced Different Snow Crystal
Types
Molly Matott and Ryan Kiely
SUNY Oswego
Oswego, New York
During the 2013-2014 Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) project, several Long Lake
Axis Parallel (LLAP) bands formed to the East of Lake Ontario. Two specific bands had drastically
different snow crystal types. In our presentation, we will show that the band on 18 Dec 2013
produced mainly graupel, pellet-like crystals while a band on 9 Jan 2014 depositted large aggregates
and well-formed dendritic flakes. Doppler-On-Wheels (DOW) radar data taken near the band show
higher reflectivity values, greater velocities and even some mesovortices occurred in the December
event, supporting the formation of graupel. Also, sounding data from north, south and in the lakeeffect bands show how different environmental conditions during these events resulted in different
snow crystal type. The soundings associated with the December event show temperatures greater
than -15º C within the saturation level. The soundings for the January event, however, show
saturation at even colder temperatures. Finally, surface observations and pictures taken by students
ultimately confirm these results. Surface observers took liquid equivalent measurements of snowfall
every hour. The liquid equivalent was much greater in the December event than the January event,
as expected with pellet-like snowfall. Additionally, pictures were taken at several different locations
along the bands.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
25
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM
Hurricane Sandy-like Tropical Cyclones in the Historical Record
Reginald Johnson
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Cornell University
Ithaca, New York 014853
[email protected]
After it re-curved away from the East Coast, Hurricane Sandy (2012) turned northwestward and
made landfall in southern New Jersey. The NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis and NCEP/NCAR
Reanalysis datasets were searched for tropical cyclones that similarly took a northwestward turn
after re-curving over the North Atlantic basin. A total of nine such storms (including Sandy) were
found from 1889 to 2012. Storms similar to Sandy tended to occur in either June-July or
September-November. There were no such storms during August.
A subset of eight storms (including Sandy) was selected for closer study. The average
northwestward “turning point” in these storms was located around 30N, 74W or about 500 miles off
the coast of the FL-GA border. Composites were constructed, before and after the turning point, of
the four storms in the modern era (after 1948) using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and four
storms in the historical era (1871-1947) using the 20th Century Reanalysis. Composites were also
constructed of long-term daily mean data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis corresponding to the
dates of the storms so that anomalies could be calculated.
The calculations reveal that, in the upper troposphere prior to the storm’s turning point, there were
composite negative geopotential height anomalies (an anomalous trough) west of the storm and
positive anomalies (an anomalous ridge) to the storm’s north. Reasons for the northwestward
turning of these storms are being investigated, and preliminary results will be reported. Also,
similarly northwestward turning storms may be observed over the Pacific Ocean (e.g. Typhoon Dale
in 1996).
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
26
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM
The Causes and Effects of Outflow Boundaries on Lake-Effect Snow Bands East of Lake
Ontario During the 2103-2014 Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems Project (OWLeS)
Jordan Rabinowitz and Jake Mulholland
SUNY Oswego
Oswego, New York
During the winter of 2013-2014 a team of eleven universities converged on the eastern shores of
Lake Ontario to study elusive lake-effect snow bands that occur every year. This massive field
campaign utilized a host of different facilities that included the University of Wyoming’s King Air,
three Doppler-on-Wheels (DOWs), and the University of Alabama at Huntsville’s Mobile
Integrated Profiling System (MIPS). One interesting phenomenon found during the Ontario Winter
Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign was the presence of outflow boundaries that
originated from lake-effect snow bands, particularly the long lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) events. The
main focus for this research involved IOP #9 (9 Jan 2014) which included a very impressive
boundary that forced a LLAP-band southward and substantially weakened it. Also, the band
changed structure, going from a solid band to more showery convection. The causes of these
boundaries are still under investigation with much more research still ahead of us.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
27
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
9:15 AM – 9:30 AM
Seventy Five Years Later: Little Known, Updated, and New Information Related to the Great
New England Hurricane of 1938
Lourdes Avilés
Plymouth State University
Plymouth, New Hampshire
The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 is still the one with which all other hurricanes in the
region are compared. One of only three exceedingly devastating storms of tropical origin since
colonial times, it arrived swiftly and unexpectedly to an unprepared population. Hundreds died,
coastal communities were wiped out, crops were lost, rivers flooded and an unprecedented number
of trees fell when they could not keep their hold on the softened, saturated ground. All this has been
known for years, but what new information has been uncovered, clarified and updated seventy five
years after the catastrophic event? The presentation will include various topics resulting from an
interdisciplinary study of all aspects of the storm, and which culminated with a book on its history
and science just published by the AMS in 2013.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
28
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
9:15 AM – 9:30 AM
7 January 2014, Long-Lake-Axis-Parallel Snowband Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems
Case Study: An Unusually Electric Event
Daniela Pirraglia and Kayla Fenimore
SUNY Oswego
Oswego, New York
Lightning and thunder associated with snow, or ‘thundersnow’, is a relatively rare occurrence. The
purpose of this project is to investigate the occurrence of multiple lightning strikes during a lakeeffect snow event on 7 January 2014. Using archived data from the Ontario Winter Lake-effect
Systems (OWLeS) project, we are investigating the cause of multiple lightning strikes associated
with this lake-effect band. Multiple lightning strikes were reported around the Tug Hill Plateau
region of New York State, approximately 50km inland, during the overnight hours of this event.
This has us questioning what ingredients in the atmosphere came together to cause the dramatic
thundersnow event.
To investigate, we overlaid lightning strike locations from the North American Precision Lightning
Network (NAPLN) on top of radar taken from the OWLeS catalog to determine where in the band
the lightning was occurring. With this information, we can get a better idea of what the atmosphere
is doing that would cause the lightning. Over a 5-hour period, there were 24 lightning strikes
captured by the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN). With this information
combined, we look to understand why this event was unusually electric.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
29
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
9:30 AM – 9:45 AM
The Foundering of the HMS Ontario
Bob Hamilton
National Weather Service
Buffalo, New York
The HMS Ontario, an impressive 22 gun Snow Brig, sunk in a gale on Lake Ontario on Halloween
night in 1780. The 80 foot British warship, certainly the largest of her day, was one of the largest
sailing ships to ever navigate the waters of Lake Ontario. This sinking stands to date as the cause of
the largest loss of life on the lake. While 120 people were officially claimed to have been lost in the
disaster, there are accounts of as many as 175 people on board...including a garrison of British
soldiers, civilians and American prisoners of war. The discrepancies are part of an overall lack of
information that came from an 18th century cover up that attempted to hide the loss from General
Washington and the Colonial troops in the closing years of the Revolutionary War. Knowledge of
this tragedy would have been very useful to the colonials as this was a huge blow to British
defenses and morale.
The HMS Ontario, the oldest confirmed shipwreck and only fully intact British warship ever to be
found in the Great Lakes, was discovered in 2008 some 500 feet below the surface of Lake Ontario.
Known as the “Holy Grail of Great Lakes Shipwrecks”, local divers found the ship after nearly 35
years of relentless searching. The ship has since been described as “an archeological miracle”
because of its extraordinary condition in the cold, low oxygen, environment found at the bottom of
its marine environment.
Stories and speculation are plentiful about the weather surrounding the sinking of the HMS Ontario.
Accounts of the tragedy put the blame on various weather scenarios, ranging from the ‘Great
Hurricane of 1780’ to a mid Fall Great Lakes blizzard. Since the ship was lost leaving barely a
trace of evidence, the disputed weather has only added to the overall mystery and legend of the
event.
Careful archival research and weather re-analyses of rare and difficult to obtain weather data from
the period has finally shed some light on the conditions during the time of the sinking. The findings
from this information will be discussed and further examined during this presentation.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
30
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
9:30 AM – 9:45 AM
Forecasts Gone Wrong: A look at two lake-effect snow cases off Lake Ontario during the
2013-2014 winter season
Andrew Janiszeski and Michael Vuotto
SUNY Oswego
Oswego, New York
One of the forecast challenges during the OWLeS (Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems) project
was how synoptic-scale disturbances affect lake-effect snow storms. The 15 – 16 December 2013
case involved an approaching arctic front interacting with an already well-primed lake-effect
environment including a well-aligned WNW flow of cold air and sufficient moisture within the
snow crystal growth zone. The question was not if lake-effect would occur but where? The forecast
models predicted the lake-effect band to impact areas adjacent to the south shore, primarily eastsoutheast of the lake. As it turned out, the boundary layer flow backed more westerly than
anticipated due to the arctic front interaction and a surprise LLAP (long lake-axis-parallel) band
impacted areas due east of Lake Ontario. The computer models failed to resolve the interaction of
the meso-scale processes over Lake Ontario with a sharp advancing arctic front. The second case on
31 December 2013- 1 January 2014, although not part of OWLeS, also involved an approaching
arctic front which interacted with a relatively warm lake surface. The question once again for this
event was not if lake-effect snow would happen, but where exactly it would set up and how intense
would it be. The computer guidance forecasted a LLAP band to form over the southern shore of the
lake, based on a 280 steering flow which would once again place a band into the southeast region of
Lake Ontario. However, this did not occur as convective snow showers combined with strong winds
were observed at the shoreline with unimpressive snowfall accumulations. A more impressive snow
band formed to the north over the Tug Hill region with somewhat more impressive snowfall rates
and amounts. In both cases computer models failed to resolve the meso-scale and synoptic
processes involved.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
31
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
10:30 AM – 10:45 AM
Upper-Tropospheric Precursors Associated with Subtropical Cyclone Formation in the
Northern Atlantic Basin
Alicia M. Bentley, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany, State University of New York
Albany, NY 12222
Oceanic cyclones exhibiting properties of both tropical and extratropical systems have been
categorized as subtropical cyclones (STCs) since the early 1950s. The opportunity to investigate
the roles of baroclinic and diabatic processes during the evolution of STCs from a potential vorticity
(PV) perspective motivates this study. The development of STCs requires the existence of a
baroclinically unstable environment, quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent, and the production of
lower-to-midtropospheric PV by diabatic heating. Previous studies have established that STC
formation is associated with weak lower-tropospheric baroclinicity, significant lower-tomidtropospheric PV, and relatively cold upper-tropospheric air accompanying intrusions of
midlatitude PV streamers into the subtropics. The hybrid nature of STCs makes them potential
candidates to become tropical cyclones via the tropical transition (TT) process.
We will investigate the roles of baroclinic and diabatic processes during the evolution of STCs by
calculating three PV metrics from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis 0.5° gridded
dataset. The three PV metrics quantify the relative contributions of: 1) lower-tropospheric
baroclinic processes, 2) midtropospheric diabatic heating, and 3) upper-tropospheric dynamical
processes during the evolution of individual cyclones. Quantification of these three contributions
reveals the changing PV structure of an individual cyclone, indicates fluctuations in the dominant
energy source of the cyclone, and aids in distinguishing between cyclone types.
A cyclone-relative composite analysis performed on subjectively constructed clusters of North
Atlantic STCs identified from a 1979–2010 climatology will be presented to document the
structure, motion, and evolution of upper-tropospheric features linked to STC formation. This
analysis highlights the frequent occurrence of precursor midlatitude anticyclonic wave breaking
events that inject relatively cold upper-tropospheric air into the subtropics. Such intrusions of
relatively cold upper-tropospheric air can help to destabilize the subtropical troposphere and
facilitate the development of the deep convection that can serve as a catalyst for STC formation.
The composite analysis also indicates that STC formation can be associated with low-amplitude
upper-tropospheric disturbances propagating from the eastern North Pacific to the western North
Atlantic around the northern periphery of subtropical anticyclones along the subtropical jet. An
evaluation of the relative contributions of lower-tropospheric baroclinic processes, midtropospheric
diabatic heating, and upper-tropospheric dynamical processes during the evolution of STCs
included in the composite analysis reveals the enhancement of upper-tropospheric PV prior to STC
formation, and the reduction of upper-tropospheric PV and enhancement of midtropospheric PV as
STCs form and undergo TT.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
32
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
10:30 AM – 10:45 AM
Comparisons of Lake-Effect and Non-Lake-Effect Snow Events at Buffalo, NY in Relation to
National Weather Service Blizzard Criteria
David Zaff
NOAA/National Weather Service
Buffalo, New York
Over the past 40 years, the Buffalo, NY National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWS BUF) has
documented four blizzards for Buffalo, NY: 28-01 January/February 1977, 19-21 January 1985, 13
March 1993, and 06-07 January 2014. There have been other events, such as 10-12 January 1997,
21-23 December 2008, and 10-12 December 2009, that met or were very close to the NWS
definition of blizzard criteria. However, since blizzard warnings were not issued for those dates,
they were perceived by the public as strong lake effect events rather than blizzards.. While there
have been many other memorable lake effect snow events, they did not have significant winds and
were considered outside the scope of this presentation.
The NWS definition of a blizzard is a winter storm with sustained or frequent winds of 15.6 m/s (35
mph) or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to a
.4 km (1/4 mi) or less, all occurring for a minimum of 3 hours. Areal coverage is not included in
the definition. The mesoscale nature of a lake effect event together with winds or gusts nearing
15.6 m/s makes deciding whether to issue a blizzard warning instead of a lake effect warning
difficult. Strong lake effect events downwind of Lake Erie are typically quite narrow and generally
have width of ~50 km and length of 50-200 km. The northern edge of a lake effect event may be
quite extreme if the band moves little over time, with a trace of snow north of the band and 60 cm
or more a few kilometers to the south. For these events, there may be instances where it is simply
windy in one town with blizzard conditions in a neighboring town.
Temperatures and wind chills are not included in the definition of a blizzard either. With the 1977,
1985 and 1993 blizzards, several deaths were attributed to exposure. For the 2014 blizzard, the peak
wind gust was 23 m/s with wind chills near -36°C and temperatures of -21°C. Blizzard conditions
themselves are dangerous, but when temperatures drop to well below zero, the phrase “life
threatening” really starts to sink in. The 2014 event was well advertised, and no lives were lost.
This presentation will compare documented blizzard events to near-blizzard events, noting
similarities and differences. Areal extent, temperatures, and wind chills will be discussed together
with NWS blizzard definition. Climatic comparisons will be made using the NCEP/NCAR
Reanalysis V1 dataset and observed sounding data will be shown as well. The presentation should
help provide forecasters more confidence on deciding whether to issue a lake effect warning or a
blizzard warning for future events.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
33
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
10:45 AM – 11:00 AM
Analysis of the Origins of East Pacific Easterly Waves
Ernesto Findlay1, Adam Rydbeck2, and Eric Maloney2
1. University at Albany
Department of Atmospheric Science
Albany, NY
2. Colorado State University
Department of Atmospheric Science
Fort Collins, Colorado
The east Pacific Ocean is the second most active hurricane basin in the world. According to the National
Hurricane Center, approximately 70% of tropical cyclones in the east Pacific are said to be seeded by
African easterly waves. However, this statistic assumes continuous propagation of easterly waves from
the Atlantic to the east Pacific. This study focuses on investigating the origins and tracks of easterly
waves in the east Pacific during the months of June-November when EWs are most active. It is
hypothesized in this study that most of the easterly waves (EWs) in the east Pacific are not linked to
EWs originating in Africa but are initiated in-situ. The bight of Panama appears to be a climatologically
favorable environment for the development of easterly waves due to the low-level cyclonic flow and
precipitation maximum. Easterly waves are analyzed using lag correlation and composites plots of 2-10
day filtered meridional winds and precipitation from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and TRMM, respectively.
From these analyses, we compare the relationship between easterly waves in the Atlantic to those in the
east Pacific. A limited WRF simulation was also utilized to compare the location and track of easterly
waves to observations during August 2005. Composites and lag correlations of easterly waves support
the idea that most easterly waves are generated in the east Pacific rather than initiating in Africa, as the
analysis does not support the propagation of easterly waves across Central America and Mexico.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
34
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
10:45 AM – 11:00 AM
Observational Analysis and Numerical Simulations of a Case of Rotating Lake-Effect Snow
System Over Lake Tahoe
Neil Laird1, Brian Crow2, and Nicholas D. Metz1
1. Department of Geoscience
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Geneva, NY
2. Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO
A distinctive lake-effect snow event occurred over Lake Tahoe on 27 October 2004. The event
featured a series of convective cells well observed by the Reno, NV WSR-88D radar (KRGX) that
developed over the lake. Three of the five individual cells that developed during an approximate 13hour period contained cyclonic rotation. In order to better understand the causal mechanisms behind
the pulsing and rotating behavior of the lake-effect convection, a detailed observational analysis
was conducted and supplemented with simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting
(WRF) numerical model. Observations and WRF simulations show the development of a land
breeze, particularly along the eastern lake shoreline, that lead to an enhanced low-level, over-lake
convergence zone. WRF simulations suggest that the pulsing of the lake-effect convection may
have been due to cyclical buildup and release of instability over the lake. This event is an excellent
example of a lake-effect snow event developing over a small lake surrounded by complex terrain.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
35
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
11:00 AM – 11:15 AM
Anticyclonic Wavebreaking and the MJO
Kyle MacRitchie1 and Paul E. Roundy2
1. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany/SUNY
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, SUNY College at Oneonta
2. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany/SUNY
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant atmospheric circulation in the tropics on
intraseasonal timescales. The MJO often couples with convection as it moves over the Indian Ocean
and decouples as it leaves the west Pacific Ocean. The association between convection coupled to
the MJO and the midlatitude flow pattern has been the primary focus of numerous recent studies. In
particular, it has been shown that there is a statistical relationship between the position and strength
of the MJO and anticyclonic wavebreaking (AWB). This study expands on this statistical
relationship and examines the physical mechanisms by which the MJO is able to induce AWB.
We have constructed a climatology of AWB events during the boreal cold season from 1979
through 2010 over the North Pacific. The subset of the AWB events which are associated with the
MJO is used as the basis of this study. First, a composite analysis will be shown to highlight the
large-scale, high amplitude features associated with the MJO and AWB. Then, a representative case
study will be shown to illustrate the details of the full relationship.
It will be shown that convection associated with the MJO and convectively coupled Kelvin Waves
over the Indian Ocean creates middle tropospheric heating anomalies near the equator which reduce
upper-tropospheric PV across the low latitudes. This process tightens the pre-existing
climatologically located meridional PV gradient at the periphery of the tropics. The meridional PV
gradient is proportional to the Rossby wave restoring force, and as Rossby waves propagate
eastward from the region of stronger to the region of weaker meridional PV gradient, they
encounter an insufficient restoring force, causing them to break. The location of the breaking point
depends on the strength and zonal extent of the meridional PV gradient as well as the strength and
location of the MJO.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
36
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
11:00 AM – 11:15 AM
The Uber Jet and the Widespread Disruptive Ice Storm of 21 – 23 December 2013
Lance F. Bosart, Alicia M. Bentley, Philippe P. Papin
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
The University at Albany/SU
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
Impressive upper-tropospheric jetogenesis occurred over eastern Canada between 21–22 December
2013 in conjunction with a radiosonde-measured, record-breaking, peak 250-hPa wind speed of 248
kt at Goose Bay (CYYR), Labrador, at 1200 UTC 22 December. This record-breaking wind speed
over CYYR was associated with the formation of an upper-tropospheric uber jet in which the core
wind speed more than doubled in the 48 h period ending at 1200 UTC 22 December. The 1000–
500-hPa thickness difference across this jet at 0600 UTC and 1200 UTC 22 December was > 84
dam (equivalent to a layer-mean temperature difference of 42 C), from < 480 dam over Labrador to
> 564 dam over southern New York and New England. The associated deep-layer shear (850 hPa
to the dynamic tropopause) exceeded 200 kt.
Jetogenesis occurred in conjunction with a strongly confluent flow pattern that featured the
juxtaposition of arctic and tropical air masses over eastern North America. Anticyclogenesis over
eastern Canada associated with an arctic potential vorticity anomaly and an arctic air mass
strengthened the lower-tropospheric meridional temperature gradient and contributed to strong
lower-tropospheric fronotgenesis. Diabatically enhanced upper-tropospheric ridging over the Great
Lakes and Northeast, associated with a tropical air mass that contained standardized precipitable
water anomalies between +4 and +5 sigma, contributed further to the establishment of deep
tropospheric baroclinicity.
Shallow arctic air, driven southward by surface anticyclogenesis in the poleward entrance region of
the uber jet, was able to seep even farther southwestward and southward in regions of terrain
channeling in the St. Lawrence, Champlain, Hudson, and Connecticut River Valleys, as well as
along the western side of the Adirondacks. As this shallow arctic air penetrated southward, lowertropospheric baroclinicity was enhanced in the equatorward entrance region of the uber jet. Deep
ascent in the tropical air mass above this shallow arctic air, in the equatorward entrance region of
the uber jet, set the stage for a widespread disruptive ice storm from the Great Lakes eastward
across southern Canada, northern New York, and northern New England.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
37
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
11:15 AM – 11:30 AM
The Importance of Long-Term Recovery and Mitigation, and Understanding Long-Term
Impacts from Hurricanes and Tropical/Post-Tropical Cyclones in Southern New England and
Long Island
Erin Norris
University of New Haven
West Haven, CT
History has proven that hurricanes and tropical storms have a long-term impact on the society,
economics, and policy of Southern New England. Two events that have left a great impact are the
1938 New England hurricane (The Long Island Express) in September of 1938, and Storm Sandy in
October of 2012. Each event has forced the region, as well as the nation, to reconsider how disasters
like this are handled throughout the four pillars of emergency management; preparedness, response,
recovery, and mitigation. A specific focus has been put on recovery and mitigation, especially in the
long-term, since these stages are critical and typically go hand-in-hand, and it can be argued that
neither step truly ends. Granted the two storms differed meteorologically, they each had similar
physical impacts in storm surge and wind damage, granted in the case of the 1938 hurricane these
impacts were extreme, but when analyzed by impacts on society they can be compared. Both the
1938 New England hurricane and Storm Sandy caused the National Weather Service (formerly the
Weather Bureau) to reassess warning systems as well as communications with various agencies.
Local Emergency Management Directors in Connecticut and Long Island also reassessed their
successes and failures during Storm Sandy, and their goals for long-term recovery and mitigation.
This allows one to question what the future impacts of tropical and post-tropical cyclones may be,
and how a category 3 hurricane might impact the region in the future if policy makers and society
don't make necessary long-term recovery management and mitigation changes.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
38
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
11:15 AM – 11:30 AM
Developing a Climatology of Snowfall Events in Oneonta, NY
David Loveless, Melissa L. Godek, and Jerome B. Blechman
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York College at Oneonta
Oneonta, New York, 13820-4015
With a cold season average of 172 cm of snowfall since 1981, Oneonta, NY can be significantly
impacted by snow events. Oneonta’s situation between the much larger cities of Albany and
Binghamton makes it an interesting location to analyze snowfall, especially since daily snow
records have been collected for the city by the State University of New York College at Oneonta
since 1981. The geography of upstate NY allows for Oneonta to receive snowfall from a variety of
storm types including coastal storms, Colorado lows, and lake-effect storms. The goal of this
research is to gain an improved understanding of snowfall events in Oneonta, NY by identifying
storms that produce snow the most often, storms that produce the most intense snowfall, and by
describing snowfall patterns in Oneonta through time. Storms capable of producing daily snowfall
are manually identified using NWS Weather Prediction Center daily weather map archives. Days
with measurable snowfall are then classified according to storm type and snowfall intensity.
Finally, the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation is analyzed for both specific storms and
general seasonal tendencies, along with ENSO. Results indicate that snowfall is highly variable
from season to season. Lake-effect snow and Alberta Clippers are found to be the most common
types of snowfall in Oneonta. Coastal storms tend to produce the most significant (10.16 cm or
greater) snowfall, despite Oneonta’s inland location. Chances for significant snowfall tend to be
greatest from late December through early March. Changes in snowfall patterns since 1981 are
identified and show that the number of days with measurable snowfall tends to be increasing, as has
the number of lake-effect snow days. Additionally, the first (last) day of snowfall has been
occurring 0.46 (0.32) days earlier, on average, than in previous years. The season’s first plowable
(6.35 cm or greater) snowfall is found to occur progressively later each season by nearly half a day
on average. However, the amount of storms producing significant snowfall each year does not seem
to have changed over the 32 year period of study. This information is useful for improving longand short-term winter forecasts in the Central Leatherstocking region of New York and has
implications for improving snow removal processes in the city of Oneonta and surrounding
communities.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
39
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
11:30 AM – 11:45 AM
A Climatology of Central American Gyres
Philippe P. Papin, Lance F. Bosart, and Ryan D. Torn
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany/SUNY
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
Monsoon gyres (MGs) and monsoon depressions (MDs), commonly found over the western Pacific
Ocean, are characterized by broad low-level cyclonic circulations that occur at a variety of spatial
scales ranging from 1500-3000 km. Low-level cyclonic gyre circulations, while less frequent and
occupying a smaller scale, are also observed, but have rarely been studied, over Central America
(CA) during the tropical cyclone (TC) season. A noteworthy gyre observed during the 2010
PREDICT field project served as a “sink” of TC Matthew and a source for TC Nicole. From 25-30
September, heavy rainfall produced devastating flooding across CA, Jamaica, and a large portion of
the eastern United States as this gyre interacted with a mid-latitude trough. The lack of prior
research on these gyre occurrences, their apparent links to TC activity, and their association with
high-impact weather motivates this presentation.
An analysis of CA gyres suggests that their spatial scales vary between 1000-2000 km in diameter.
These large-scale circulations often develop from the combination of zonal low-level westerly flow
in the east Pacific (EPAC), and zonal easterly flow across the Caribbean and northern Gulf of
Mexico (GoM). CA gyres also tend to be co-located with reservoirs of deep moisture that are
characterized by high precipitable water values (>50 mm) and embedded deep convection on their
southern and eastern sides. Catastrophic flooding can occur when gyre cyclonic circulations interact
with the topography of CA.
A CA gyre climatology, which includes frequency over the TC season, will be presented. This
climatology is used to craft a series of composites using objectively identified gyre cases occurring
from May-November between 1980-2010. In this period, 42 gyre cases were identified with a
bimodal peak in gyre occurrence: an early season peak (May-June) with a more pronounced late
season peak in the latter half of the TC season (Sep.-Oct.). Earth-relative composites are used in
diagnosing the role of anomalous low-level zonal flow aiding in gyre genesis. Supplementary work
involved using the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (RMM) index to assess the role
that tropical intraseasonal oscillations have on gyre frequency. Results show that over 75% of gyre
genesis events occur in RMM phases 8,1,2, which represent the convectively active MJO signal
over the western hemisphere in association with anomalous westerly low-level zonal winds in the
EPAC. TC genesis and tracks within gyre circulations will also be highlighted from an analysis of
TCs in a gyre-relative coordinate system. Much of this research represents the first known objective
climatology of these types of disturbances in the Atlantic and EPAC basins.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
40
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
11:30 AM – 11:45 AM
The Role of Warm-Air Advection in The Southern New England Blizzard of 2005
Steven Perez and Kristen Corbosiero
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany, State University of New York
Albany, NY
The Southern New England Blizzard of 2005 affected large areas of the northern United States,
most notably dropping almost 1 m of snow in parts of eastern Massachusetts and bringing high
winds throughout the Northeast. Although this was a very impressive storm, societal impact was
held to a minimum due to the storm’s early morning Sunday arrival on 23 January 2005 when most
people were at home. The Southern New England Blizzard of 2005 started out as a weak clipper
system. Positive vorticity advection became the driving force behind the clipper’s southeastward
propagation across the Upper Great Plains. With little to no temperature advection present, the
storm’s propagation was uneventful until 1200 UTC 22 January 2005 when the system was able to
interact with Gulf of Mexico moisture and temperature advection, more specifically increasing
warm-air advection with height. The introduction of differential temperature advection helped
intensify the storm and supplied the storm with moisture as the system moved into the Upper Ohio
Valley, leaving behind considerable snow totals in the Midwest. The combination of increased
positive vorticity advection and differential temperature advection continued until the surface low
split into two surface lows at 0000 UTC 23 January 2005. After this point, differential temperature
advection became the main forcing for height falls which helped deepen the storm. Differential
temperature advection was able to invoke a response which helped transport more moisture into
Southern New England, creating conditions necessary for localized accumulations of 300 mm of
snow and strong wind gusts resulting in blizzard conditions. The goal of this research is to use
quasi-geostrophic analysis to diagnose the importance of warm-air advection in the storm’s
intensification.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
41
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
1:00 PM – 1:15 PM
Aerial Damage Survey Comparison of The Historic El Reno and Moore 2013 Tornadoes
Nolan Atkins1, Kelly Butler1, Kayla Flynn1, and Roger Wakimoto2
1. Lyndon State College
Lyndonville, VT
2. University of Colorado
Boulder, CO 80309
This talk will present a comparison of damage survey results for two recent, historic tornadoes. The
first is the 20 May 2013 Moore Oklahoma EF5 tornado. The second is the EF3 31 May 2013 El
Reno tornado. Both tornadoes produced a number of fatalities and incredible destruction to
property.
The presentation will begin with a description of how the damage surveys were executed. The
discussion will then focus on the differences between the two tornadoes. The more tornado was a
single-vortex tornado that produced a well-defined damage path in rural and urban neighborhoods
surrounding the city of Moore. The El Reno tornado occurred in the countryside dominated by
wheat fields west, south, and east of El Reno. Video and still photos showed that it was a multivortex tornado producing a damage swath nearly 2.6 miles wide, the widest tornado in recorded
history. It will be shown, however, that much of the area in the El Reno damage swath received
relatively minor EF0 and EF1 damage. It is believed that one of the suction vortices was
responsible for the fatalities of three scientific storm chasers deployed on the El Reno storm.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
42
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
1:00 PM – 1:15 PM
Analysis of the Meteorological Precursors to the January 2013 Sudden Stratospheric
Warming
Hannah E. Attard, Rosimar Rios-Berrios, Corey T. Guastini, and Andrea L. Lang
University at Albany, State University of New York
Albany, NY
The polar vortex is a climatological wintertime phenomenon in which planetary-scale westerly
winds in the stratosphere develop in response to the radiationally forced equator to pole temperature
gradient. Once the polar vortex becomes established in the winter, the climatological zonal mean
westerlies can significantly weaken or even reverse and become easterlies during an event known as
a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Although a SSW can occur as often as once per winter
and can have impacts on tropospheric weather, the mechanisms that lead to the breakdown of the
polar vortex during a SSW are not clearly understood.
This talk will provide an overview of SSWs and an analysis of the precursors to the recent 6
January 2013 SSW. In order to more fully understand the antecedent mechanisms and processes
associated with SSWs, this analysis uses the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset to
examine two tropospheric events in December 2012 that are hypothesized to have primed the
stratosphere for the SSW. It is suggested that the two December events had an impact on the
structure of the thermal and momentum fields in the stratosphere and subsequently changed the
wave propagation characteristics of the stratosphere. An analysis and discussion of these minor
events and the January SSW will be presented.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
43
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
1:15 PM – 1:30 PM
Aerial Damage Survey Analysis of the 20 May 2013 Moore Tornado
Kelly Butler and Kayla Flynn
Lyndon State College
Lyndonville, VT
On 22 May 2013, a detailed aerial damage survey of the 20 May 2013 Moore Oklahoma tornado
was conducted. A set of over 1200 digital images of the damage path were collected and
subsequently analyzed. From the aerial photos of the damage, the detailed damage track has been
reconstructed. A detailed EF-scale assessment will be presented.
Point damage data has been imported into ESRI ArcGIS to estimate the property and population
that was affected by the tornado. Estimates of the total area impacted by damaging winds, the
numbers and types of structures rated EF0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, and an estimate of the property damage
generated by the tornado will be presented.
Finally, a detailed photogrammetric analysis of the visual evolution of the tornado will be
presented. The visual structure of the tornado and attendant debris will be superimposed on the
damage track to examine the relationship between the visual tornado and damage it was creating.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
44
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
1:15 PM – 1:30 PM
Dynamical and Thermodynamic Processes Contributing to Thundersnow Events
Kyle J. Meier1, Lance F. Bosart1, Daniel Keyser1, and Michael L. Jurewicz2
1. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany, State University of New York
Albany, NY
2. NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY
Thundersnow is often accompanied by mesoscale snowbanding and may be associated with locally
heavy snowfall events (6–12 in.) and intense snowfall rates (2–3 in. h−1). Given the sensible weather
impacts accompanying thundersnow, the contributing dynamical and thermodynamic processes
need to be better understood so that forecasters can recognize the various pathways in which
thundersnow can occur. Two thundersnow events from the 2012–2013 winter season were recently
analyzed. Similarities among the events included near-saturated conditions, weak moist symmetric
stability, and strong updrafts, which occurred in the lower-to-middle troposphere over the range of
temperatures corresponding to the mixed-phase region of a thundercloud. However, the two events
occurred in dissimilar synoptic-scale settings. Motivated by the recognition that thundersnow can
occur in a variety of synoptic-scale settings, current work will seek to establish the regional
frequency and variability of thundersnow events across the U.S.
All instances of thundersnow in the contiguous U.S. spanning the years 1994–2012 are identified
from archived METAR surface observations and NLDN data. From these observations, a
comprehensive U.S. thundersnow climatology is created and compared with previous climatologies.
Gridded datasets from the 0.5° resolution NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis are used to
generate constant-pressure and vertical-profile composites of the environment during the occurrence
of thundersnow. The composites will help determine the dynamical and thermodynamic processes
that contribute to regional thundersnow frequency and variability. Representative case studies also
will be presented to illustrate the various pathways in which thundersnow can occur.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
45
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
1:30 PM – 1:45 PM
Outflow-Boundary Related Waterspouts: Detection, Timely Warning, and Impact on Public
Safety
Matthew Cappucci
Sturgis Public Charter School
Hyannis, MA
Massachusetts may be over a thousand miles away from the traditional "tornado alley", but as the deadly
tornadoes that killed four on June 1st 2011 proved, we are not immune to such storms. Over the course of
half a century or so, Massachusetts has bore witness to scores of tornadoes, with an F5 twister having
touched down on June 9th 1953. killing 94 people. This tornado remained the deadliest recorded disaster in
the United States until the Joplin Missouri catastrophe of May 22, 2011 (161 deaths). These storms, however,
are generally confined to the western part of the state. A disturbing trend recently observed, however, reveals
that the eastern Massachusetts coastline may boast as many, if not more, tornadoes, albeit undocumented.
On June 23rd, 2012, a strong thunderstorm produced a spectacular gust front over Boston Harbor. This gust
front was associated with intense outflow that helped spawn a waterspout that roared ashore in Scituate as an
EF-0 tornado. A similar situation occurred in Plymouth on July 24th, when three waterspouts formed ahead
of the gust front of a severe thunderstorm, with one of these tempests roaring ashore on White Horse Beach
as an EF-0 storm. Photos taken of these spouts reveal their formation ahead of the gust front, with a
downdraft/ waterspout interaction similar to the situation of June 23rd. Time-Lapse photography of the gust
front taken moments after the dissipation of the spouts reveals a horizontally oriented vortex a few hundred
meters ahead of the storm's outflow boundary. The interaction between thunderstorm outflow boundaries and
associated waterspouts will be detailed in this presentation.
Because of the inability for NWS radar domes to detect the microscale circulation associated with such gustfront related waterspouts, forecasters at NWS offices in Massachusetts will now focus on the predecessors of
waterspout formation. Among these tell-tale parameters is a well-pronounced gust-front moving over warm
ocean waters, as well as a sharp, highly localized temperature contrast between the air ahead of and behind
the gust front. When the NWS believes that conditions will favor the development of gust-front related
waterspouts that may move onshore, a special statement will now be broadcast through the EAS system in
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Mariners will benefit as well, with Special Marine Warnings advising
caution on 'short-lived waterspouts'. Despite these alterations in NWS offices in Massachusetts, much has yet
to be done to warn the public of the dangers associated with gust-front related waterspouts. It is the
responsibility of broadcasters to help convey when these erratic, short-lived waterspouts may move ashore.
Hopefully, the public will be made aware of this phenomenon in the not-so-distant future; additionally, other
coastal NWS offices may consider using these parameters in their warning systems.
Since the original development of this concept, multiple more recent occasions have taken place where these
added statements have actually been implemented and issued, including a September 3, 2013 event over
Block Island, Rhode Island. The link to the severe thunderstorm warning is included below. This warning
helped to alert mariners in advance to the potential for development of both tornadic and outflow-boundary
related waterspouts prior to formation.
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2013-O-NEW-KBOX-SV-W-0076/USCOMP-N0Q-201309031720
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
46
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
1:30 PM – 1:45 PM
Cold Surges Along the African Highlands
Caitlin C. and Nicholas D. Metz
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Equatorward moving cold surges are ubiquitous features along the lee of high terrain, especially
during the cold season. These cold surges have been studied along many mountain ranges including,
the Andes, Appalachians, Rockies, and Himalayas. However, even though the east coast of Africa
features high terrain, a dearth of research exists on cold surges along the African Highlands despite
the fact that the surges could have potentially large agricultural effects. The purpose of this
presentation is to examine these African Highlands cold surges from both a climatological and case
study perspective.
A five-year climatology of African Highlands cold surges was created spanning the 2008 to 2012
period. This climatology revealed that African Highlands cold surges had a climatological
maximum in September, and the strongest events were featured throughout the Southern
Hemisphere winter. These cold surges feature temperature drops of between 2°C and 11°C, as 925hPa meridional flow averaging 35 knots advected Antarctic air equatorward. Cold surges along the
African Highlands last from one, to fifteen days, with the highest frequency of events spanning a
three day period. A representative case study reveals that during a cold surge event, a surface
anticyclone forms near the southern coast of Africa in a favorable region of subsidence, associated
with quasi-geostrophic forcing for descent. As the anticyclone progresses eastward, 925-hPa winds
become southerly and ageostrophic as they advect cold air equatorward along the lee of the African
Highlands.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
47
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
1:45 PM – 2:00 PM
The Spectrum of Progressive Derecho Formation Environments
Corey T. Gaustini and Lance F. Bosart
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
The University at Albany/SUNY
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
Progressive derechos are a type of long-lived mesoscale convective system that produces large
swaths of wind damage. In contrast to their serial derecho counterparts, which form along cold
fronts associated with extratropical cyclones, literature typically describes the environments in
which progressive derechos form as benign with little large-scale forcing for ascent. While this is
often true, an examination of progressive derecho synoptic environments for an eleven-year
climatology reveals a spectrum of derecho synoptic environments ranging from zonal flow on the
northern periphery of large subtropical anticyclones to shortwave upper-level troughs.
This presentation will include an eleven-year (2002–2012) climatology of June, July, and August
progressive derechos east of the Rocky Mountains, subjectively grouped, derecho-relative
composites of the identified events, and select case studies. The aim of this presentation is to
identify regions of the United States favorable for progressive derecho formation, characterize the
spectrum of synoptic environments in which progressive derechos form, and examine mesoscale
details of progressive derechos falling within a given composite category through illustrative case
studies.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
48
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
1:45 PM – 2:00 PM
The Effects of Downsloping on Storm Precipitation Distributions in the Capital District of
New York State
Kyle Pallozzi1, Lance Bosart1, and Robert Gaza2
1. University at Albany
Albany, NY
2. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation
Downsloping is a process which has been observed to have a high impact on precipitation
distributions during many events in the Capital District of New York State. Forecasting the
magnitude and westerly extent of precipitation decreases due to downsloping in the Hudson Valley
is a major forecast challenge. This study seeks to address that issue by determining the best
predictors for such events. Thus far individual 850 hPa winds from soundings at Albany( KALB)
and storm mean 850 hPa wind vectors derived from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data have been
examined. Preliminary results from this study suggest that when both the storm mean 850 hPa wind
vector, and individual 850 hPa observed sounding winds are between 60 and 150 degrees lower
precipitation values in the Hudson Valley are most favored. Future work will be done to examine
other variables such as 925 hPa wind, surface wind, and surface geostrophic wind at Albany to
assess their relationship to downsloping cases in the Hudson Valley.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
49
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
2:00 PM – 2:15 PM
Independent Verification of SPC Convective Outlooks
Matthew Vaughan
University at Albany
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues daily convective outlooks for the United States. Day 1
outlooks begin at 06z, and are updated five times daily. Our study provides an independent
verification of SPC convective outlook forecasts. To evaluate the skill of convective risk areas, we
project 06z SPC outlooks, valid at 12z through 12z the next day, onto a 40 x 40 km grid across the
US domain. Based on storm reports that occurred during the forecast period, probability of
detection, false alarm rate, and threat score verification metrics are calculated for a 10-year period
from 2003-2013. These statistics are sub-divided for severe hail, wind, and tornado forecasts and
reports. The output is used to identify poorly predicted severe weather events in the Northeastern
US over the 10-year period. We examine a particularly poor case for synoptic and mesoscale
features that contributed to the low predictability of the event.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
50
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
2:00 PM – 2:15 PM
An Analysis of Arctic Climate and the Intense Arctic Cyclone of Early August 2012
Adam H. Turchioe and Lance F. Bosart
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany, State University of New York
Albany, NY
On 03 August 2012, a cyclone formed over Central Siberia and progressed northeastwards. By 0000
UTC 05 August, the cyclone reached the Arctic Ocean with a mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) of
984 hPa. Once over the Arctic Ocean, the cyclone rapidly intensified and reached a minimum
pressure of 962 hPa on 06 August near 83°N and 170°W. The cyclone slowly weakened, and on
0000 UTC 10 August once again had a minimum MSLP of 984 hPa. The motivation for this
presentation is driven by the likelihood that this cyclone is one of the most intense storm systems to
ever impact the Arctic Ocean in the modern data era. The rarity of this storm is further supported by
the fact that it occurred during the summer, prior to the climatologically favored more intense
cyclone-season of the fall. The purpose of this presentation will be to present the results of a
climatological analysis of Arctic Ocean conditions between for 1979 to 2012. We will conduct a
diagnostic analysis of the intense cyclone of early August 2012 to help place it within the context of
this Arctic cyclone climatology.
Prior to development, there existed an anomalously strong baroclinic zone at 850 hPa over northcentral Russia. The corresponding 850 hPa temperature anomalies were between -2°C and -4°C
poleward of 70°N and upwards of +8-9 °C over eastern Russia near 60°N. This enhanced
baroclinicity aided in developing an anomalously strong 300 hPa polar jet along the coast of
northeastern Russia (20-25 m s-1) that helped to intensify the cyclone. Noteworthy, the most rapid
intensification occurred as the cyclone traversed the ice-free waters of the Arctic Ocean. The intense
cyclone of early August 2012 featured very warm air at 850 hPa (> 15 C) collocated with high
values of precipitable water (> 35 mm) within the warm-sector of the storm poleward of 70°N.
These anomalously high temperature and moisture anomalies were indicative of the strength of the
warm-air advection, as well as the overall strength of this cyclone. An attempt will be made to
distinguish between the influence that the thermodynamical forcings had on intensifying the
cyclone as compared to the aforementioned synoptic-scale dynamical forcing.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
51
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
3:00 PM – 3:15 PM
The Elevated Mixed Layer and its Role in the 11 September 2013 New England Severe
Thunderstorm Event
Michael Ekster
NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office
Gray, ME
The elevated mixed layer (EML) is the result of hot, dry, well-mixed boundary layer air formed
over high terrain that is then advected over lower terrain by the prevailing flow. The EML has been
extensively studied and is a well-known contributor to the severity of thunderstorms across the
Great Plains. EML air is a primary cause of the buildup of large convective available potential
energy (CAPE) when the steep midlevel lapse rates and an inversion known as a cap or “the lid” are
juxtaposed above rich boundary layer moisture. Deep moist convection initiating or moving into
this air mass in combination with several other factors (e.g., strong deep-layer wind shear)
oftentimes results in significant severe weather-producing thunderstorms such as supercells and
derechos. While an EML is not a necessary ingredient for the occurrence of these convective
modes, it is a significant contributor to their severity by allowing for very strong updrafts.
While explored extensively in the Great Plains, the association of the EML with significant severe
thunderstorm events in the northeastern United States has recently been studied (Banacos and
Ekster 2010). On rare occasions EMLs are advected eastward from their source region in the
Intermountain West and into the northeastern United States. This allows for a rare, “plains-like”
thermodynamic environment in the northeast that becomes favorable for significant severe
thunderstorms when combined with adequate wind shear, moisture, and forcing for ascent.
This presentation aims to supplement the author’s previous EML composite study with a recent
significant severe thunderstorm case (11 Sep 2013) in New England. Nearly 250 reports of severe
weather were received by NWS forecast offices in the northeast that day; some of which included
very large hail (2”+ in diameter) and hurricane-force straight-line wind gusts. An overview of the
event, including thermodynamic diagrams, satellite and radar imagery, numerical model data, and
trajectories will be shown.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
52
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
3:00 PM – 3:15 PM
The Accuracy of High Resolution Forecast Models During the Ontario Winter Lake-effect
Systems (OWLeS) Project
Eric Drewitz, Philip Pascarelli, Tyler Kranz
SUNY Oswego
Lake-effect snow storms off of Lake Ontario are a common weather phenomenon for the upstate
New York region. They can produce a meter or more of snow in places while others less than 10km
away may receive nothing. Forecasters use high resolution mesoscale models to predict where the
bands of lake-effect snow form, persist and change intensity. For the Ontario Winter Lake-effect
Systems (OWLeS) Project forecasters used many different types of high resolution mesoscale
models; examples of these models are the 4 km high resolution NAM and the SUNY Oswego WRF.
The purpose for this topic of study is to test the accuracy and reliability of the different high
resolution models that were used in the forecasting of the lake-effect snow bands off of Lake
Ontario, and its goal is to understand and improve the forecasting of these snow bands in the future.
Throughout the OWLeS Project there was at least one forecast briefing per day. Most of the
different models produced a new forecast every six hours, except for the NCEP RAP which ran
every hour and the SUNY Oswego WRF RAP Initialized which ran every three hours.
Our methodology consists of examining the different model runs for a total of six Intense
Observation Periods (IOPs). Out of the IOPs that occurred two will be analyzed one where the
models performed well, and another where the models performed poorly. The way we would test
the accuracy of the models during those IOPs is by comparing the model runs to the radar and snow
team reports.
One physical aspect that the models generally poorly represented was the ice cover on the lake. If
there is enough ice over the lake it can weaken lake-effect snow band formation. For many of the
IOPs one model that stood out for its poor performance was the Fire Weather NAM. Meanwhile the
4km high resolution NAM had a decent performance in predicting the placement of these lakeeffect snow bands.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
53
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
3:15 PM – 3:30 PM
Weather Impacts Aloft: An Aviation Perspective of Thunderstorms over the Northeast U.S.
on 11 September, 2013
Michael Abair
NOAA/National Weather Service Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU)
Boston Air Route Traffic Control Center
Nashua, NH
The aviation industry is a significant contributor to the United States’ economy, and weather plays a
crucial role in the efficiency of air travel. Focusing on convective weather, even sub-severe
thunderstorms can have a significant impact on air traffic operations. During the afternoon of 11
September 2013, a strong upper level ridge allowed Southern New England to be capped preventing
thunderstorm development. However, conditions were more favorable for thunderstorms over New
York and northern New England. In addition, the environment became even more favorable for
thunderstorm development and intensity as a well-advertised elevated mixed layer progressed over
portions of the Northeast. Despite thunderstorms missing major airports from Boston to New York
to Washington D.C., they significantly disrupted the jet routes that take aircraft to and from these
airports.
Since aviation weather is a very specific sector in the field of meteorology, the presentation will
begin by providing some basics regarding aviation weather and forecasting, and introduce some of
the products issued for convective forecasts and aviation hazards. Significant air traffic routes
across the Northeast will be shown to understand where thunderstorms can cause the most
disruption to air traffic. Also, there will be discussion of the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and
Center Weather Service Units (CWSU’s) of the National Weather Service. They each play their
own unique roles in aviation forecasting, but work closely together to deliver forecast and hazard
products.
After the introduction to aviation weather and forecasting, a video will be shown detailing how
thunderstorms impacted air traffic in the Northeast during the afternoon and evening of the 11 th.
Discussion will supplement the video describing the decision support services provided by CWSU
staff to air traffic managers and controllers throughout the event. This, and several other weather
events mentioned in the presentation, will demonstrate how on site decision support is critical for
air traffic movement and the safety of those flights. This event will also show how aviation
forecasting can benefit from improvements in mesoscale forecast models.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
54
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
3:15 PM – 3:30 PM
Coupling of Climate to Clouds, Land-Use, Precipitation, and Snow
Alan Betts
Atmospheric Research
Pittsford, VT
We use hourly observations from 1953-2011 of temperature, RH, opaque cloud cover and snow
depth from 14 climate stations across the Canadian Prairies, together with ecodistrict crop data and
MODIS albedo data to analyze the coupling of the diurnal and seasonal climate to clouds, land-use,
precipitation and snow.
1) The cloud forcing of the diurnal climate has distinct warm and cold season behavior. From April
to October, when incoming shortwave radiation dominates over longwave cooling, maximum
temperature and the diurnal ranges of temperature and relative humidity increase with decreasing
opaque cloud cover, while minimum temperature is almost independent of cloud. During the winter
period, both maximum and minimum temperature fall with decreasing cloud, as longwave cooling
dominates over the net shortwave flux.
2) The agricultural land-use conversion from summerfallow to annual cropping on 5 MHa (15-20%
of the land area in Saskatchewan) in recent decades has cooled and moistened the summer climate
due to increased transpiration, with some increase in precipitation.
3) The fall-winter and winter-spring transitions in November and March between warm and cold
seasons occur within a few days of snowfall and snowmelt. With lying snow, 2-m temperature
drops 10oC. Winter mean temperatures have a linear relation to the fraction of days with snow
cover.
4) I will present a preliminary analysis of how temperature and humidity are coupled to
precipitation and clouds in the growing season.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
55
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
3:30 PM – 3:45 PM
A Case Study of the 30 June – 1 July 2011 Lake Michigan-Crossing MCSs
Macy E. Howarth and Nicholas D. Metz
Department of Geoscience
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Geneva, New York
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are ubiquitous features across the central and eastern United
States during the warm season. Many of these MCSs traverse the Great Lakes and pose an
important forecasting challenge. While conventional wisdom suggests that mature MCSs might
dissipate upon crossing lake waters that are typically cooler than the surrounding land,
observational evidence reveals that MCSs can persist or even intensify upon crossing these
relatively cool lake waters. This presentation will examine multiple MCSs that formed near and
over Lake Michigan during the 30 June to 1 July 2011 period in order to ascertain why these MCSs
were poorly forecast by numerical models.
During this two-day period, three separate MCSs formed and regenerated along the western shore
and directly over Lake Michigan. Forecasts predicted ~0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain, however, 6–
8inches accumulated in some localized areas. These systems resulted in over 17.5 million dollars in
damage on the south/southeastern shore of Lake Michigan. A north–south-oriented warm front
located directly over Lake Michigan served as a focusing mechanism for repeated convective
development over Lake Michigan. Additionally, a robust low-level jet stream in the presence of
significant low-level moisture and CAPE contributed to the heavy-precipitation event. Given the
cool temperatures of Lake Michigan, the surface boundary was not well resolved by surface
observations or numerical models, which likely contributed to the large forecast errors observed.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
56
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
3:30 PM – 3:45 PM
Observing Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Wind Farm Impacts with Satellite Data
Ronald Harris
University at Albany
Past studies have noted that spinning wind turbines can enhance turbulent mixing in the lower part
of the boundary layer and thereby alter the fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum near the surface.
Theoretically, the enhanced vertical mixing from wind turbines would act to reduce or even invert
the low-level atmospheric stability by dragging relatively cooler air toward the surface in a
statically unstable environment and relatively warmer air toward the surface in a statically stable
environment. This gives rise to a simple paradigm wherein wind farms (WFs) cause local nearsurface cooling in the daytime and local near-surface warming at nighttime. Quantifying such
impacts, however, remains challenging because in-situ observations of WFs are very limited. To
corroborate the findings of recent studies on these local WF effects, here we analyze land surface
temperature (LST) measurements from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
(MODIS) instruments on NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites over five WFs in Iowa. Daytime and
nighttime seasonal pixel-level LST anomalies are calculated over small regions centered on each
WF using MODIS climatologies (2003-2012). The locations of individual wind turbines are
included on the anomaly plots for the purpose of detecting spatial coupling between WFs and LST.
Nighttime warming anomalies ranging from about 0.2 to 1°C can be seen for all WFs in most of the
seasons, with the summer season having the best warming signals that are spatially coupled with the
WFs. Also, the warming signal is somewhat consistently stronger at earlier times in the night
(around 10:30 p.m., local solar time) compared to the warming signals at later times (around 1:30
a.m. local solar time). These warming signals can be somewhat quantitatively attributed to the
construction of the WFs by plotting interannual variations of the difference between pixels within
and adjacent to the WFs, and then looking for changes before and after the turbines were built.
Additionally, a plethora of observed wind data are currently being analyzed in hopes of finding
clues that help explain the diurnal and seasonal variations of the warming signals. The expected
daytime cooling signal is rarely observed because typically the daytime boundary layer is naturally
turbulent and well-mixed, so wind turbines would have little impact on stability.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
57
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
3:45 PM – 4:00 PM
A Multiscale Analysis of the 29 May 2013 Severe Weather Outbreak near Albany, New York
Nicholas D. Metz1 and Ross A Lazear2
1. Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Geneva, NY 14456
2. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany, SUNY
Albany, NY
On the afternoon of 29 May 2013, convection initiated over western and central New York ahead of
an upper-level short-wave trough on the eastern flank of a broad ridge over the eastern U.S. The
initial convection developed along a warm front, and featured a mixture of isolated supercells and a
larger, relatively disorganized mesoscale convective system (MCS). This convection formed in a
region that contained modest CAPE values that exceeded 1000 J kg−1. The environmental wind
profile featured veering in the low-levels, indicative of warm advection that contributed to a curved
hodograph and large values of low-level shear as the convection approached Albany. As a result,
these supercells produced three separate tornadoes, an EF1 in Schoharie County, an EF1 in Saratoga
County, and an EF2 in Montgomery and Schenectady Counties that was on the ground for thirteenmiles. The convection grew upscale as it passed Albany, and the resulting bow-echo MCS
produced numerous severe wind reports across eastern New York and western Massachusetts.
This presentation will utilize observations and archived model data as part of a multiscale
investigation of the variety of ingredients that contributed to this relatively localized severe weather
outbreak. In addition, radar data will be examined to show the formation, evolution, and structure
of the various tornado-producing supercells.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
58
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
3:45 PM – 4:00 PM
Composite Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors
Matthew A. Lazzara1,2, Richard Dworak2, David A. Santek2, Brett T. Hoover2, Christopher S.
Velden2, and Jeffrey R. Key3
1. Antarctic Meteorological Research Center
Space Science and Engineering Center
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Madison, WI
2. Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
Space Science and Engineering Center
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Madison, WI
3. NOAA/NESDIS
Center for Satellite Applications and Research
Madison, WI
Satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMV) were one of the earliest applications of
geostationary satellite observations. Polar orbiting satellite observations have also been used to
generate AMVs. AMVs from both satellite platforms are assimilated into numerical weather
prediction models. However, an examination of the coverage of geostationary and polar-orbiting
based AMVs reveals a 10-degree latitude gap of little to no observations centered on 65° latitude, in
both hemispheres.
A project was initiated to exploit the Antarctic satellite composite imagery, generated at the
Antarctic Meteorological Research Center, Space Science and Engineering Center (SSEC),
University of Wisconsin to create AMVs from the imagery, especially in the 50 to 70 degree South
latitude belt. Arctic composite imagery, also generated at SSEC was later tested to create AMVs.
The imagery is a combination of geostationary and polar orbiting observations. The derived AMVs
have been validated in both hemispheres over a multiple year period using radiosonde observations.
Additionally, a two-season numerical model impact study using the Global Forecast System
indicates that the assimilation of these AMVs can improve upon the forecasts, particularly during
lower-skill events.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
59
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Governor’s Room
4:00 PM – 4:15 PM
Cookie-Cutter Weather Warnings: The Discontinuities and ‘Holes’ of Weather Warnings
Matthew Cappucci
Sturgis Public Charter School
Hyannis, MA
Weather, as all meteorologists know, is quite extraordinary; seemingly simple ingredients such as air, moisture, and heat
can combine together to form an endless array of spectacular meteorological phenomena, oftentimes catching the public
off guard. If weather is so unique, however, one must wonder why issuing ‘cookie cutter’, computer generated weather
statements is “the norm”.
The 122 NWS WFOs scattered about the country are instrumental in the forecast and warning of severe weather, issuing
over 100 short-range products during severe weather events to keep the public informed, as well as safe. While timely,
specific warnings such as these have undoubtedly attributed to thousands of lives saved in the past decade, the definitive
criteria required for an event to qualify the issuance of a particular weather warning limits effectiveness.
On February 11, 2003, for example, the National Weather Service office in Lincoln, Illinois was forced to make a tough
decision as to which product to issue during a multi-state thundersnow squall line event producing hurricane force
winds. Due to the short-fused call-to-action of this particular event, as well as the presence of isolated “thundersnow”,
WFO Lincoln opted to issue 5 severe thunderstorm warnings, a practice that would normally be considered atypical.
The boundaries placed on normal forecast products pose a formidable challenge to forecasters attempting to warn of an
‘atypical’ threat.
More noteworthy, however, was the issuance of eleven tornado warnings during hurricane Katrina in 2005 - for areas
where tornadoes were not even forecasted to occur! On most occasions, the tornado warning is considered the most
significant of all severe weather warnings, and a great pressure is placed on any forecaster who is prompted to issue
such a product. As the eyewall of hurricane Katrina moved onshore, wind gusts of 100-120 miles per hour spread across
a large portion of the New Orleans metropolitan area, leading to the issuance of tornado warnings for “extreme winds”.
The confusion resulting from these tornado warnings eventually resulted in the creation of a new product by the NWS,
dubbed the “extreme wind warning”; the EWW may only be issued when “winds of 115 miles per hour are expected to
overspread a WFO’s CWA within an hour...”. More information pertaining to the Extreme Wind Warning is available
online at http://products.weather.gov/PDD/EWW.pdf. In this case, forecasters resorted to unorthodox methods of
weather warning to successfully convey an imminent danger.
An ideal example of how templated, “cookie-cutter warnings” have failed a community has been the May 2011 tornado
that struck Joplin, MS. While tornado warnings had been issued a full 21 minutes in advance, the “cookie-cutter” nature
of the warning failed to accurately convey the menacing danger facing the public; the warning generation program,
furthermore, failed to accurately report the correct movement and location of the EF-5 tornado, which was clearly
resolved on radar. While manually writing every tornado or severe thunderstorm warning would be far too time
consuming, a simple phrase could help individualize the warning while taking mere seconds to include. In the case of
the Joplin tornado, the warnings were not taken seriously until the phrase “this storm is moving into the city of Joplin”
was added.
On occasion, forecasters must go ‘above and beyond’ to convey a potential danger in the most accurate way possible.
Regardless of the technicalities, forecasters must be given a greater freedom in issuing severe weather warnings, which
must be modified in order to be more inclusive of severe weather events. Many other countries have implemented a
simple categorical system of severe weather warnings, issuing instead purple, red, yellow, and green alerts (equivalents
of emergencies, warnings, watches, and statements/advisories, respectively). While the degree of severity is conveyed
through each of these warning thresholds, each ‘level’ of severe weather product may be implemented for a myriad of
weather events, regardless of the specifics behind them. One must ask themselves if this may be a more effective, and
less ambiguous, means of communicating a threat to the general public.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
60
Oral Presentation Abstract
8 March 2014
Vermont Room
4:00 PM – 4:15 PM
Ensemble-Based Analysis of the Large-Scale Processes Associated with Multiple Extreme
Weather Events over North America During Late October 2007
Benjamin J. Moore, Daniel Keyser, and Lance F. Bosart
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany, State University of New York
Albany, New York
During 21–25 October 2007, the development of a high-amplitude Rossby wave train along the
North Pacific jet stream, involving influences of multiple polar potential vorticity (PV) disturbances
and Tropical Cyclone Kajiki off the eastern Asian coast, contributed to three concurrent extreme
weather events (EWEs) in North America: wildfires in southern California, a cold surge into eastern
Mexico, and widespread heavy rainfall (~150 mm) in the south-central United States. An analysis of
the large-scale flow evolution suggests that these three events were dynamically linked with the
development of a persistent high-latitude ridge over the eastern North Pacific and western North
America and a PV streamer (i.e., deep trough) over the central United States. In this study, global
ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
obtained from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX)
Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive are used to characterize the predictability of
the large-scale flow pattern linked to the three EWEs and to diagnose the large-scale dynamical
processes supporting the EWEs.
An examination of the ECMWF forecasts initialized at 0000 UTC 19 October 2007 reveals rapid
growth and downstream propagation of ensemble spread in the 250-hPa geopotential height field
over the eastern North Pacific and North America during 21–25 October 2007, reflecting
uncertainty associated with cyclogenesis over the eastern North Pacific, ridge amplification over
western North America, and anticyclonic wave breaking and PV streamer formation over the central
United States. In order to investigate the dynamical processes associated with the growth and
propagation of ensemble spread and to explore the implications for the predictability of the three
EWEs, an approach combining empirical orthogonal function analysis with fuzzy clustering is
applied to ensemble forecasts of dynamic tropopause potential temperature over North America to
identify clusters of ensemble solutions representing distinct scenarios for the evolution of the largescale flow. Based upon this analysis, it is found that the occurrence of the three EWEs over North
America in the ensemble solutions is highly sensitive to the location and timing of anticyclonic
wave breaking and PV streamer formation over the central United States. Specifically, in ensemble
solutions for which ridge amplification is too strong over western North America, anticyclonic
wave breaking and PV streamer formation occur too rapidly and too far west, establishing a largescale flow pattern that inhibits the occurrence of the three EWEs. Conversely, for the ensemble
solutions with weaker ridge amplification over western North America, anticyclonic wave breaking
over North America occurs later and farther east, causing the PV streamer to form over the central
United States and establishing a favorable large-scale flow pattern for the occurrence of the three
EWEs.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
61
Oral Presentation Abstract
9 March 2014
Governor’s Room
8:30 AM – 8:45 AM
The Effects of Extreme Precipitation Events on Climatology
Pamela Eck
Department of Geoscience
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Geneva, NY
Average monthly precipitation totals calculated by the National Climatic Data Center do not take
into account the distribution of precipitation throughout the entire month. For example, during May
2007 in Albany, NY precipitation fell on 8 days, resulting in a cumulative rainfall total of 3.51
inches, near the monthly mean of 3.67 inches. Three years later during September 2010, Albany
only received 0.76 inches of rainfall during the first 29 days of the month. Then, on the final day of
the month Albany received 2.68 inches of rain from a nearby quasi-stationary front. Despite this
extremely disproportional distribution of precipitation, both months appear on paper to be “normal”
because the cumulative monthly precipitation for both months are comparable to the mean monthly
precipitation total.
Using a 30-year climatology of daily precipitation totals from 1981-2010 in 10 different cities
across the United States, this study looks at whether “normal” monthly cumulative precipitation is
made up of several days of little precipitation, or a few days of extreme precipitation. Cities were
selected based on their climate, geographic location, the topography of the region, and their
proximity to bodies of water. Only the months of April through September were studied due to the
increased probability for convection during this time period. The percentage of the cumulative
monthly precipitation that fell during the month’s single largest precipitation event was calculated
by dividing the cumulative monthly rainfall amount by the value for the month’s largest
precipitation event.
Some percentages in cities like Buffalo, NY were low, showing only 1/5 to 2/5 of the cumulative
monthly rainfall to have fallen during a single event. Other cities like Tampa, FL had months in
which the largest precipitation event accounted for anywhere from 1/5 to 2/5 all the way to 1/2 to
3/4 of the cumulative monthly precipitation. Finally, cities located in the central United States, like
Denver, CO, consistently received 1/3 to 1/2 of their cumulative monthly precipitation from a single
event. This variety in the distribution of precipitation is most likely caused, at least in part, by
convective episodes such as mesoscale convective systems (MCS) that form in the lee of the Rocky
Mountains and are then carried eastward by the upper-level jet stream.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
62
Oral Presentation Abstract
9 March 2014
Vermont Room
8:30 AM – 8:45 AM
The Meteorologist as an Expert Witness
Jason Shafer
Lyndon State College
This talk will discuss the role meteorologists may play in litigation matters when serving as an
expert witness. The general nature of the work will be described, including first-hand case examples
where weather was a contributing factor (e.g., flash flooding, slip and fall). The challenges and
opportunities of serving as an expert witness, including compensation, tight deadlines, uncertainty
assessment, and working within the general legal community are illustrated. The talk will end with
recommendations as to how individuals who want to work in this area can serve as an expert
witness, including the American Meteorological Society’s Certified Consulting Meteorologist
credential.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
63
Oral Presentation Abstract
9 March 2014
Governor’s Room
8:45 AM – 9:00 AM
The Effects of Green-Up on Spring and Summer Maximum Temperature in Northern New
Hampshire from 1989 to 2012
Alyssa E. Hammond and Eric G. Hoffman
Plymouth State University
The goal of this research is to determine the connection between maximum temperature events and
the time of green-up in northern New England. Due to the rapid increase of transpiration and
significant changes in albedo, green-out can significantly affect thermodynamic properties of
surface boundary layer. Spring-time phenology data was provided by the Hubbard Brook
Ecosystem Study (HBES) at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBRF) in North Woodstock,
New Hampshire, USA. The average date where the foliage cover reached 75% for each year
between 1989 and 2012 was determined. Daily maximum temperature data and climate normals
were used two sources, National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and by the HBES. Six stations near
the HBRF where chosen for this research; Berlin and Whitefield New Hampshire to the north,
Fryeburg, Maine to the east, Concord, New Hampshire to the south, Lebanon, New Hampshire and
Barre, Vermont to the west.
For each day of the year between March 1st and August 31st, the maximum temperature was
compared to the normal daily maximum temperature. “Events” where determined to be days with
maximum temperatures of greater than 2σ above the mean. The average green-up date was the 140th
day of the year, or May 20th. The results show that most of the events occurred before green-up each
year, with percentages ranging from 53% at the HBES to 83% at the Lebanon, NH station.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
64
Oral Presentation Abstract
9 March 2014
Vermont Room
8:45 AM – 9:00 AM
Broadcast Meteorology: Where Do We Go From Here?
L. K. McNally, III, Ph.D.
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Broadcast meteorology has undergone significant change in the last 50 years. What was once
considered a novelty in the broadcast industry is now considered a necessity. What was a rare
opportunity in the past is a viable career path today. Requirements for success in the field have
changed over time, the needs of the industry have changed, and the technology used to
communicate the weather forecast has advanced dramatically as well. This presentation will look
back at the beginnings of the field, the start of the program at Lyndon State College, and the current
state of the science. From there, we shall try to “forecast” the career of the broadcast meteorologist,
by addressing the education which might be needed, the expected availability of work, where the
technology might lead us, and an outlook as to where the field of broadcast meteorology might be in
the future.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
65
Oral Presentation Abstract
9 March 2014
Governor’s Room
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM
Influence of Synoptic Cold Fronts on Micro-Scale Conditions in Watkins Glen Gorge
Chad W. Hecht and Neil F. Laird
Department of Geoscience
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Geneva, NY
Thermodynamic and dynamic differences exist across a range of scales in the atmosphere. This
study investigates the influence of synoptic-scale cold fronts on microclimatic conditions within the
complex terrain of Watkins Glen gorge. The gorge features 19 waterfalls, cliffs as high as 200-ft.,
and descends nearly 600 ft. over a distance of 1.5 miles. During an eight-week period from 13
September to 7 November 2012, several small weather stations recorded meteorological conditions
using a 20-minute time interval at sites inside and outside of the gorge. Using archived National
Weather Service data, project-collected data, and NCEP surface frontal analyses, a total of 9
separate cold frontal passages through the area were identified during the project. Results indicate
that the passage of a cold front affects the temperature and atmospheric moisture at the sites in the
gorge similarly; however, the magnitude and rates of the change differ. The site within the open
area of the gorge experienced rapid changes in conditions compared to the site in the confined area
of the gorge. The largest rate of change in temperature and dewpoint temperature occurred at both
interior gorge sites within 3 hours after the front passed. This presentation will discuss the influence
of cold fronts on the microclimatic conditions of Watkins Glen gorge using both case study and
climatological analyses.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
66
Oral Presentation Abstract
9 March 2014
Vermont Room
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM
Place Attachment and Hurricane Sandy: Public Perception of Climate Change by Those Who
Personally Experienced
Adam Rainear
Rutgers University
Scientists have attempted to explain the risks and outcomes of climate change to non-scientists by
using large scale messages about global sea-level rise, global snow and ice cover, and large-scale
precipitation amounts. Unfortunately, these messages have left the public with low levels of
engagement in climate change, and leave scientists discouraged in their ability to communicate the
science. This study draws from recent literature which has shown messages framed from a smaller
scale or “local” view-point are proven to better increase both engagement and belief in climate
change. Place attachment, or strong feelings towards a relevant area or place, also has been shown
to increase engagement in climate change. Similarly, public belief in climate change can be shaped
by personal experience of weather events which are thought to be caused by climate change. An
online survey-experiment was conducted with New Jersey residents. Participants either read a
message that contained a locally place attached connection with climate change, a message with a
severe weather link to climate change, a message with both, or a message with neither. It is
anticipated that the message cueing place attachment and containing the severe weather link will
result in the highest levels of climate change belief and engagement.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
67
Workshop: Climate Communication by Meteorologists
9 March 2014
Centre Ballroom
9:30 AM – 11:30 AM
Hosted by Drs. Lisa Doner, Mary Ann McGarry, Lourdes Avilés, and Eric Kelsey
Plymouth State University
Presentation by Prof. Raymond Bradley
UMass Amherst
Public perception is that meteorologists are experts on climate. The public often assumes
that their local weather forecasters know all about climate and can report on and answer
questions related to climate change. This 2-hour workshop helps meet that public perception
by facilitating communication on climate by interested meteorologists. The workshop
includes a presentation on climate change by Prof. Raymond Bradley, author and
paleoclimate scientist from the University of Massachusetts – Amherst, followed by an
extended question, answer and discussion period. This is the chance to get clarification on
concepts, data sources and assumptions and to learn methods for presenting climate
information without becoming caught in a tangle of opinions and controversy. As part of this
process, we help participants gauge their own climate literacy and, hopefully, overcome
obstacles to being climate communicators.
Funded by an NSF Informal Science Education Pathways Grant DRL-1222752.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
68
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Great Lakes Lake-Effect Cloud Band Frequency with Emphasis on Multiple-LakeConnections
Brooke Adams
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
The North American Great Lakes provide a cold season environment that creates dynamic
mesoscale processes that result in unique and powerful meteorological circulations and storms. This
15-winter climatology examines the frequency of several different mesoscale circulations through
the identification of lake-effect clouds. The specific lake-effect cloud organizations examined were
shore parallel, wind parallel, meso-vortex, and unorganized bands. An additional focus of this
research examined lake-to-lake connections where an upstream lake was influencing cloud
formation over an intervening land mass and downstream lake. High-resolution visible GOES
satellite imagery was utilized in classifying the different types of lake-effect clouds and the
presence of an upstream connection. This poster will present results that describe the frequency and
behavior of lake-effect snow events and lake-to-lake connections over the Great Lakes.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
69
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Relating Total Lightning To Storm Microphysics and In-Cloud Convective Turbulence
Sarah Al-Momar
Plymouth State University
Convectively induced turbulence (CIT) has been shown to cause or factor into a large portion of
weather-related commercial aviation accidents. Determining areas of CIT is difficult since CIT is a
relatively small scale phenomenon. The Federal Aviation Administration issued guidelines for
pilots to avoid thunderstorms, but flying around a storm can waste time and money. In-cloud CIT is
created by dynamics within the cloud, such as the updraft. These same dynamics promote cloud
electrification and subsequently, the generation of lightning. Therefore, lightning may be an
indicator of a robust updraft and the likelihood of CIT. With the expected increase in availability of
global lightning data through the launch of the GOES-R satellite, this relationship could improve
the identification of CIT in otherwise data-sparse locations.
Data from the NCAR Turbulence Detection Algorithm were compared with total lightning data
measured by the Colorado Lightning Mapping Array and dual-polarimetric radar data from the
Denver, Colorado and Cheyenne, Wyoming WSR-88Ds. This was done in order to determine
possible temporal and spatial relationships of turbulence to electrical and microphysical storm
properties. In several case studies of severe storms over Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska, it was
observed that higher total lightning frequencies accompanied higher turbulence intensities. CIT
often occurred prior to any lightning discharges. Likewise, lightning was located within the mixed
phase region of a storm, while turbulence maxima often extended just above this region.
Additionally, turbulence was observed within the storm after the last lightning strike. Results
suggest lightning may be indicative of in-cloud CIT.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
70
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Air Mass Frequency During Precipitation Events in the United States Northern Plains
David M. Loveless, Anthony Baum, Jordan Contract, Richard DePasquale, Melissa L. Godek
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York College at Oneonta
Oneonta, New York 13820-4015
Since 1980, numerous billion-dollar disasters have affected the Northern Plains of the United States,
including nine droughts and four floods. Given the region’s large agricultural sector, the ability to
accurately forecast the frequency and quantity of precipitation events in this area is imperative as it
has a major impact on the economy of states in the region. The atmospheric environment present
during precipitation events can largely be described by the presiding air mass conditions since air
masses characterize a multitude of meteorological variables at one time over a large region.
Therefore, understanding the relationship between air masses and rainfall episodes can contribute to
improved precipitation forecasts. The goal of this research is to add knowledge to current
understandings of the factors responsible for precipitation in the Northern Plains through an
assessment of synoptic air mass conditions. The Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) is used to
categorize 30 years of daily air mass types across the region and daily precipitation is acquired from
the United States Historical Climatological Network at stations in close proximity. Air mass
frequencies are then analyzed for all regional precipitation events and rainfall categories are
developed based on precipitation quantity. Both annual and seasonal air mass frequencies are
assessed at the time of precipitation events. Additionally, air mass frequencies are obtained for
positive and negative phases of the Pacific/North American Pattern to examine the influence of a
teleconnection forcing factor on the air mass types responsible for producing precipitation
quantities. Results indicate that the Transitional (TR) air mass, associated with changing air mass
conditions commonly related to passing fronts, is not the leading producer of rainfall in the region.
The TR is generally responsible for only 10-20% of regional precipitation. All moist air mass
varieties are more dominant during precipitation events and the Moist Moderate (MM) and Moist
Polar (MP) air masses are frequently responsible for 50% of all rainfall in the region. Despite the
relatively small influence on precipitation, the TR air mass does tend to be a significant producer of
the most intense amounts of precipitation; however the three moist air masses, MM, MP, and Moist
Tropical (MT), still primarily produce most intense precipitation. MM and MP tend to be
particularly prominent during the winter season. The MM and MT air masses dominate around 65%
of summer precipitation events. Interestingly, there is a tendency for precipitation while dry air
masses are present to the north and west within the study region. The PNA does not significantly
influence the air mass frequency tendencies identified during precipitation events.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
71
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Aerial Damage Survey Analysis of the 20 May 2013 Moore Tornado
Kelly Butler and Kayla Flynn
Lyndon State College
Lyndonville, VT
On 22 May 2013, a detailed aerial damage survey of the 20 May 2013 Moore Oklahoma tornado
was conducted. A set of over 1200 digital images of the damage path were collected and
subsequently analyzed. From the aerial photos of the damage, the detailed damage track has been
reconstructed. A detailed EF-scale assessment will be presented.
Point damage data has been imported into ESRI ArcGIS to estimate the property and population
that was affected by the tornado. Estimates of the total area impacted by damaging winds, the
numbers and types of structures rated EF0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, and an estimate of the property damage
generated by the tornado will be presented.
Finally, a detailed photogrammetric analysis of the visual evolution of the tornado will be
presented. The visual structure of the tornado and attendant debris will be superimposed on the
damage track to examine the relationship between the visual tornado and damage it was creating.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
72
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
An Assessment of WRF-ARW Model Forecast Skill for a Winter Storm in the White
Mountains, New Hampshire
Matthew Cann
Plymouth State University
The forecast skill of the WRF model was evaluated across the complex terrain of the White
Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire. The WRF model was initialized with 0.5-by-.05
degree operational GFS analyses and used GFS analyses for the lateral boundary conditions every 6
hours. A two-day forecast of standard meteorological variables was produced for a winter storm
event. Forecast skill was assessed for temperature, humidity, sea level pressure, precipitation, and
wind speed and direction at 25 sites. These sites include Mount Washington Observatory's Mesonet,
ASOS/AWOS sites, and roadside weather stations run by Plymouth State University and New
Hampshire DOT. The 25 sites are well-distributed horizontally and vertically (155-1920 m asl),
providing an ample representation of weather conditions across the White Mountains. The forecast
skill was evaluated at each site as a function of elevation, slope, aspect, and other environmental
parameters to improve our understanding of WRF forecast strengths and weaknesses in the White
Mountain National Forest.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
73
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Towards a Better Understanding of Convective Storm Evolution over the Coastal
Northeastern U.S.
Michael Colbert1, Jessica Quickle1, Brian A. Colle1, Kelly Lombardo2
1
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY
2
University of Connecticut – Avery Point, Groton, CT
Forecasting and understanding warm season convection along the northeastern U.S. coastal area is a
challenge. The development and evolution of convection is sensitive to the ambient thermodynamic
and dynamic gradients that characteristically form in coastal regions. Previous climatological
(Lombardo and Colle 2011, 2012; Murray and Colle 2011) and high resolution numerical modeling
studies (Lombardo and Colle 2013) have begun to explore this problem. To further advance the
science of coastal storms, observations at temporally and spatially fine resolutions are required, as
well as more high resolution numerical modeling studies. Observations will improve understanding
of the storm’s physical processes as well as validate numerical simulations, leading to improved
forecasts and warnings.
This past summer (17 June – 8 July 2013), the field component of the Doppler Radar for Education
and Mesoscale Studies (DREAMS) project was completed on Long Island, NY. DREAMS is a
collaborative project between Stony Brook University, the National Weather Service (NWS)
located in Upton, NY, and the Center for Severe Weather Research (CSWR) located in Boulder,
CO. The fundamental goals of the project are threefold: (1) to educate students on local meoscale
weather phenomena while gaining experience utilizing state of art research radar equipment and
data (2) to obtain high temporal and spatial resolution data sets of local mesoscale weather
phenomena (3) to expose the broader public to the latest atmospheric research including many of
the challenges encountered when forecasting the local weather.
In addition to the primary goals of the project, this field study provided an opportunity to obtain
valuable data sets of local convection using cutting edge radar technology (i.e. Doppler on Wheels)
in concert with in situ observations. The poster will highlight observed cases of local convection
placing them in the context of the latest understanding of coastal convection, while discussing
opportunities for further advances based on this knowledge.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
74
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Field and Forest Microclimate Conditions at Hanley Biological Preserve
Katherine Coughlin and Neil F. Laird
Department of Geoscience
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Geneva, NY
Microclimates are small-scale atmospheric zones where the climate conditions such as temperature
and precipitation vary from the surrounding area. To investigate microclimates in a field and forest
landscape, weather instruments were situated at Hanley Biological Preserve in Seneca County, N.Y.
The weather instruments recorded data on temperature, dewpoint temperature, relative humidity,
solar radiation, pressure, wind speed, and wind direction. These instruments were deployed in field,
ecotone, and forest locations from 6 September to 13 November 2012. Specific events such as
Hurricane Sandy were also examined to observe how microclimates are impacted by large-scale
significant weather systems. Each location (field, ecotone and forest) had distinct atmospheric
conditions. Results demonstrate that solar radiation and forest canopy coverage had large impacts to
microclimate processes. This poster will present variations of microclimate conditions at open field,
transitional ecotone, and adjacent deciduous forest sites for a 9-week autumn time period.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
75
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
A Climatological Study of the Winds at Mount Washington, New Hampshire
Kevin Cronin and E. P. Kelsey
Plymouth State University
Plymouth, NH
Extreme winds (e.g., >100 mph) occur frequently on the summit of Mount Washington, New
Hampshire (44°16'N, 71°18'W, 1914 m ASL), which has given the mountain and the Mount
Washington Observatory much attention over the last 80 years of continuous weather observations.
Understanding the atmospheric patterns responsible for severe winds on Mount Washington would
be beneficial in forecasting future extreme wind events on mountainous terrain. This study begins
with the methods and instruments used by MWO observers to measure wind. Then, a climatological
analysis of the Mount Washington wind record since 1932 is presented.
The anemometers used at the summit have been custom-made to withstand heavy icing conditions
combined with hurricane force winds. The anemometer type has progressed from a custom made
heated anemometer constructed by the Mann Instrument Company in the 1930s to heated pitot tube
static anemometers that have been used since 1946. To keep the anemometers free of rime and glaze
ice accretion, heating elements in the anemometers are supplemented with manual deicing from an
observer. During the most severe icing events, observers manually deice multiple times each hour to
ensure accurate measurements of wind speed.
Observational and reanalysis data were used to examine the synoptic scale conditions that produce
extreme wind events. Monthly, seasonal and annual averages of wind speed and direction were
computed from hourly wind observations to assess climatological trends. The wind speed and
direction time series were compared with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., the
Arctic Oscillation) to identify the dominant patterns associated with wind on Mount Washington.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
76
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
A Comparison of Dendritic Growth Zone Between Lake-Effect and Synoptic Scale Snow
Systems in Buffalo, New York
Caitlin Crossett, Zachary Dameron, Pamela Eck, and Nicholas Metz
Department of Geoscience
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Geneva, NY
The Great Lakes region features the climatological maximum for lake-effect snow events in
the United States. In addition, this region typically receives a number of snow events from synopticscale systems. Both of these snow events can cause significant safety concerns and disruptions to
travel. Given these substantial impacts it is important to compare and contrast the potential for snow
growth within lake-effect and synoptic-scale snow systems. The dendritic growth zone (DGZ) is
the range of atmospheric temperatures between -12°C and -18°C that is the most conducive to snow
growth. The purpose of this study is to create a climatology for Buffalo, New York that compares
and contrasts the depth of the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) for lake-effect, lake-enhanced, and
synoptic-scale events, in an attempt to gain a more comprehensive understanding of snow growth
characteristics.
Preliminary results have shown that for snow events occurring in Buffalo lake-effect or lakeenhanced snow events typically exhibit the deepest DGZ’s when averaged over a winter. Similarly,
when examining the average DGZ depth during each month of the cool season, lake-effect and lakeenhanced snow events typically have the deepest DGZ’s. An understanding of the variation in the
depth of the DGZ by event type will allow forecasters to better predict when, where, and how much
snowfall will occur.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
77
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Climate Change Communication Between TV Broadcast Meteorologists and their Viewing
Audiences
Lisa Doner1, P. T. Davis2, R. Lyons1, K. Wilkinson1, K. Foley2, M. A. McGarry1, H. Meldrum2
1. Plymouth State University
Plymouth, NH
2. Bentley University
Waltham, MA
In response to the high level of public skepticism about climate science, in a NSF-funded project we
examine attitudes about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) among one of the public’s primary
climate information sources: broadcast meteorologists. According to recent polls, a full 30% of TV
broadcast meteorologists regard AGW with skepticism. TV broadcast meteorologists have the
attention of a national audience and self-identify as the primary science correspondents for many
local news stations. We are seeking ways to reduce skepticism among TV broadcast meteorologists
about AGW, and to improve their awareness and acceptance of the quality and reliability of climate
science.
Our census of 93 broadcast meteorologists at 25 TV stations in New England reveals that 67 have
undergraduate degrees (13 also have graduate degrees) in meteorology or atmospheric science. Of
these 93, 20 have other types of undergraduate degrees, and 11 have a meteorology certificate from
Mississippi State Univ., which typically involves a 12-month on-campus program. Based on these
results, for New England, we reject our hypothesis that TV broadcast meteorologists lack sufficient
science background to understand climate change data. A survey to assess the climate literacy and
level of acceptance of climate change findings among these broadcast meteorologists is ongoing.
In spring, 2013, a pilot survey of PSU’s meteorology program measured levels of climate literacy.
The literacy assessment is based on the ‘Essential Principles of Climate Science,’ a joint effort of
NOAA, AAAS, NASA, NSF, USAID, DOD, EPA, numerous NGOs, and individuals from varied
professional fields. Although the number of meteorology students in this pilot survey is small (9
first year students and 7 graduating seniors), the results are still unexpected. The first year students
show higher climate literacy on key vulnerabilities to climate change, such as freshwater resources,
the economy, transportation, and the impact of changes in mean temperature. Both groups score
poorly regarding impacts of CO2 on ocean pH, the purpose of phenology in monitoring climate
change, knowledge of modeled outcomes of climate change impacts, and some forms of proxy
climate data. During academic year 2013-2014, this survey is being administered in meteorology
programs across the U.S.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
78
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Synoptic Study of Flooding Along Stationary Banks
Alexander Gallagher
University at Albany
Albany, NY
Flash and prolonged flooding are major problems in our modern age as human activities
such as urbanization continue to increase flood potential. They cause millions in property damages
each year and kill, on average, 100 people. However, floods are often difficult to understand as the
size and forcing behind each can be different. The purpose of this paper is to understand the set up
and interplay of the components to the Mid Atlantic Flood of 2006 in order to better forecast similar
flood conditions. The set up to this event consisted mainly of a stalled boundary just inland of the
flooding, the remnants of a tropical depression, and a blocking North Atlantic high. To understand
how these all came together to produce both flash and persistent flooding a variety of methods were
used: quasi-geostrophic theory of both height tendency and omega, moisture transport of several
variables, and Maddox (1979) observations of long lived convection along quasi-stationary
boundaries. Overall, it is found that strong synoptic conditions are necessary for prolonged flooding
of large areas but can also give rise to strong mesoscale features that can induce localized flash
flooding within the broad flood area.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
79
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Climatology of Wind Chill Equivalent Temperatures for Locations Across United States
Raleigh Grysko, Macy Howarth, Nicole Desko, Nicholas Metz, and Neil Laird
Department of Geoscience
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Geneva, NY
Wind Chill Equivalent Temperature (WCT) is a function of both wind speed and air temperature
and can further increase the danger to human health during the cold season. WCT is defined as the
decrease in air temperature felt by exposed skin due to the flow of cold air. As the temperatures
decrease and wind speeds increase, the WCT will subsequently decrease. This study examines
extreme wind chill events in six different locations across the United States. The locations vary with
latitude, proximity to water, and elevation above sea level. The locations are Des Moines, IA, Sault
Ste. Marie, MI, Syracuse, NY, Colorado Springs, CO, Helena, MT, and Portland, ME. The
frequency of time periods with WCT less than -20°F were investigated at each location. The longest
duration event and the most extreme WCT event at each location were then examined for synoptic
characteristics.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
80
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Bringing Atmospheric Sciences to a Geoscience Field Course for Undergraduates
Neil F. Laird
Department of Geoscience
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Geneva, NY
Geoscience is the study and understanding of the processes that comprise the entire Earth System.
At Hobart & William Smith Colleges the Department of Geoscience brings together faculty across
the Atmospheric, Hydrologic, and Geologic Sciences. The Department of Geoscience at Hobart &
William Smith Colleges has recently developed and offered a new field-based undergraduate course
to teach students using an immersion, hands-on approach that incorporates projects focused on
weather, climate, hydrology, and geology. The field course has been offered as a two-week
experience during each of the last four years. The presentation will focus on the challenges and
benefits to providing students this type of opportunity, specifically with respect to students studying
in the atmospheric sciences. Specific examples will be provided based on one of the field courses
co-lead by the author to the Pacific Northwest during the last two years.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
81
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Tornado Survey Analysis and Overview of the 29 May 2013 Albany Forecast Area Tornados
Luigi Meccariello
NOAA/National Weather Service Forecasting Office
Albany, NY
On 29 May 2013, a complex of storms that evolved into a quasi linear convective system with
embedded supercells moved east across the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region of New York
(NY). The complex of storms moved through the National Weather Service (NWS) Albany
County Warning Area (CWA) from 2118 UTC on the 29th to approximately 0200 UTC on the 30th.
This complex of storms produced 3 tornadoes, two of which were rated EF-1 and one that was rated
EF-2. This line of storms was accompanied by numerous reports of straight line wind damage and
heavy rainfall which caused localized flooding. This poster will illustrate the importance of strong
low-level theta-e gradients and veering wind profiles for the formation of the severe convection in
the Albany CWA for this event. In addition, the poster will show the usage of new dual-pol data to
help detect tornadic debris signatures and a Vr shear analysis for this case. Since April 2012, NWS
Albany, NY has incorporated new dual-pol variables to further analyze severe thunderstorms.
Lastly, as background, a brief tornado climatology of the Northeastern United States (US) will also
be presented.
The results and images from two tornado damage surveys that were conducted, on 30 May 2013 and
1 June 2013 will also be presented. On May 30th, the NWS survey team surveyed areas in
Montgomery, Schenectady and Schoharie Counties in east central NY. On 1 June 2013, a second
tornado survey was conducted in Saratoga County in east central NY. Using the enhanced Fujita
scale (EF-scale), key Damage Indicators (DI) were identified with damage correlated to wind speed,
using the Degrees of Damage (DOD).
DI charts were used to compare DOD to structural
integrities of DI’s. The best practices to account for variations in structural integrity for any DI
when rating a structure, is to assign a DOD to the DI. It is essential to note expected wind speeds
where adjustments are made to DIs to adjust scale ratings to this developing applied science.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
82
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
A Multiscale Analysis of Upstream Precursors Associated with Serial Severe Weather Events
Across the Upper Midwest
Nicholas D. Metz1 and Jason M. Cordeira2
1. Department of Geoscience
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Geneva, NY 14456
2. Department of Atmospheric Science and Chemistry
Plymouth State University
Plymouth, NH 03264
Between 30 June and 1 July 2011, a heavy-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS)
occurred over Lake Michigan. A second MCS subsequently occurred over Minnesota, Iowa and
Wisconsin on 1 July 2011 resulting in more than 200 severe weather reports. The antecedent largescale flow evolution was strongly influenced by early-season tropical cyclones (TCs) Haima and
Meari in the western North Pacific. The recurvature and subsequent interaction of these TCs with
the extratropical large-scale flow was associated with Rossby wave train (RWT) amplification on
22–26 June 2011 over the western North Pacific and dispersion across North America on 28–30
June 2011. The RWT dispersion was associated with trough (ridge) development over western
(central) North America at the time of MCS development over the Midwestern United States. The
evolution of the large-scale flow was particularly conducive to heavy rainfall and severe weather as
a surface-based mixed layer over the Intermountain Western United States was advected eastward,
transitioning to an elevated mixed layer (EML) over the Midwestern United States.
These two MCSs serve as motivation for a climatology of EML days and their relationship to severe
weather over the Midwestern United States. The climatology illustrates that severe weather reports
near Minneapolis, MN during the summer are twice as numerous on EML days as compared to
normal. The increase in severe weather reports are primarily driven by more large hail and severe
wind, which account for 95% of all severe weather reports on EML days. A time-lagged composite
analysis indicates that RWT amplification over the central North Pacific and RWT dispersion across
the eastern North Pacific and North American, as occurred prior to the 30 June–1 July period, is a
common upstream precursor to EML days over the Midwestern United States. These results suggest
that investigations of far upstream precursors to RWT amplification and dispersion over the North
Pacific may be particularly useful in better understanding warm-season severe weather outbreaks
over North America.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
83
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems 2013-2014 Field Campaign Review
Deanna Apps and Melinda Bradtke, overseen by Dr. Scott Steiger
SUNY Oswego
During the winter of 2013-14, scientists from eleven institutions gathered in upstate New York to
conduct a first-of-its-kind field project on Lake Ontario-generated lake-effect snowstorms. The
University of Wyoming King Air aircraft, heavily instrumented for in-situ and remote sensing of the
atmosphere, three Doppler on Wheels (DOW) radars, five (four mobile) rawinsonde systems, and
the University of Alabama – Huntsville Mobile Integrated Profiling System (MIPS) were some of
the key facilities used to study lake-effect storms. The key objectives were focused in three areas:
long lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) storms, upwind and downwind causes and effects of lake-effect
systems, and orographic influences on these storms.
Mother Nature cooperated almost perfectly for the principal investigators to collect observations.
The weather was mild for the public outreach day in Penn Yan, NY on 4 December, but then turned
colder and we had our first opportunity to sample the lake-effect by 7 December. This was a weak
event but was a good “shake-down” intensive observation period (IOP) to do a test run using all of
the equipment. A large amplitude, blocking upper-level ridge over western North America, with a
downstream trough to the east, dominated the synoptic pattern for most of the remainder of the field
project. This trough kept an almost constant supply of arctic air over and near Lake Ontario,
sometimes originating from cross-polar flow. The wind pattern was dominated by westerly flow in
the boundary layer, leading to many LLAP events over and near the Tug Hill east of the lake.
However, patience paid off as more northerly flow became established in mid-January leading to
some excellent sampling of Lake Ontario - Finger Lake connections. There was a total of 24 IOPs
during the OWLeS field campaign, more than double what climatology suggested would occur!
The goal of this presentation is to discuss how an event was studied, from forecasting it to
coordination of facilities during the event. The PIs and students from many institutions with
differing objectives worked well together and look forward to the data analysis stage of the project.
Some initial results will be shown as well.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
84
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
A Search for Orographic Convection Source Regions in the Hindu Kush
Erin Rinehart
Plymouth State University
Military forecasters in Afghanistan work in a fast-paced environment and require as many
tricks of the trade as possible to stay ahead of the weather. This study located source regions for
thunderstorms in Afghanistan based on prevailing wind direction. This should assist forecasters by
allowing them to focus on the intensity and movement of storms rather than where they form.
Infrared satellite imagery was obtained from the Air Force’s 28th Operational Weather Squadron.
An MB curve was applied to highlight cloud top temperatures that allowed thunderstorms to be
easily analyzed. This resulted in locating four convective source regions. From the three prevailing
wind directions studied, two source regions were present in all directions: one in the east and
another in the south. Two additional source regions were located unique to the prevailing wind:
south central Afghanistan with winds from the northwest and north central Afghanistan with winds
from the west.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
85
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
Investigating the Effect of Andrea (2013) on Small Coastal River Discharge into Long Island
Sound
Steven R. Schmidt and Michael Whitney
University of Connecticut
Connecticut's shoreline has tens of small coastal rivers that discharge into Long Island Sound (LIS).
These rivers range in basin area and vary in land-use, all of which can cause differences in their
individual response to large precipitation events. Understanding how these rivers differ in their
response can provide insight when considering the impacts these rivers can have on the input of
freshwater into LIS. Using the Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow (GSFLOW) model,
discharge from these rivers is modeled and used to force the Regional Ocean Modeling System
(ROMS), thus allowing an analysis of how small rivers may influence coastal salinities in LIS
during a large precipitation event. Focus is taken on the passing of Tropical Storm Andrea's
remnants over Connecticut in early June of 2013 and these small rivers response in terms of
discharge and influence on coastal salinities.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
86
Poster Presentation Abstract
March 8 - 9, 2014
A Comparison of Two Blizzards – February 1978 vs. February 2013
Eleanor Vallier-Talbot
NOAA/National Weather Service
Taunton, MA
The year 2013 was a big anniversary year for historic weather events across southern New England,
including the 60th anniversary of the infamous Worcester tornado (June 9, 1953) and the 75th
anniversary of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (September 21, 1938). One other wintry
anniversary occurred in 2013 – a record blizzard by which all others have been compared to since.
This was the Blizzard of 1978, which occurred from February 5th to 7th.
As the snow season of 2012-13 progressed through January, generally light snow fell across the
region. A strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was in place, which generally means
high pressure blocking across Greenland, possibly slowing any potential system downstream across
eastern Canada into the northeastern U.S. However, weak storms remained progressive through the
early winter of 2012-13. The NAO index briefly became neutral or even slightly positive in early
January 2013 before shifting negative again a few weeks later. Large, rapid changes in the NAO
index can sometimes cause rapid intensification of storm systems (Archambault et al, 2010).
Computer forecast models began to signal the potential development of a winter storm off the
southern New England coast in early February 2013. The region could see a variety of hazards
including high winds, coastal flooding and, of course, large amounts of snow. The irony was – this
potential event was forecast to occur within a few days of the 35th anniversary ofg the Blizzard of
1978!
While commemorations of the 1978 storm were being held, meteorologists across the northeast
grew increasingly alarmed as each model run showed this storm would become very strong and
slow moving. But, would winds be strong enough to dub this potential storm a Blizzard??
In actuality, low pressure did develop off the southeast U.S. coast while cold, blocking high
pressure set up across northern New England into Quebec late February 7th into the 8th. By the
time this storm passed southeast of Nantucket on the morning of Saturday, February 9th, record
snowfall and wind gusts exceeding hurricane force were reported. Astronomical high tides for
February coincided with the strong northeast winds to cause moderate to major coastal flooding,
somewhat similar to what occurred in early February 1978.
This poster will compare the similarities and differences between these two blizzards that just
happened to occur in early February – 35 years apart!
Archambault, H., D. Keyser, and L. Bosart, 2010: Relationships between Large-Scale Regime
Transitions and Major Cool-Season Precipitation Events in the Northeastern United States. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 138, 3454-3473.
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference
87
th
39 ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE
Notes
39th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference