Download Iraq, ISIS and the Mid East - London Center for Policy Research

Iraq, ISIS and the Mid East
To send in troops (of any kind) without clear short and long term goals is folly; We need
clear goals – worthy goals will be difficult, but we need clear goals.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
GOAL: Short Term (Next 12 months)
- Using a Multi-National Force Re-establish Iraq’s borders and Eliminate the ISIS
in Iraq
- Using a combination of political and economic carrots and sticks, and in
coordination with our MNF partners, push the Iraqi government to function in a nonsectarian manner, bringing Shia, Sunni, Kurdish and other minorities into government
- Restore US credibility world wide: the US will act to defend its interests, and US
promises of security to friends and allies are meaningful and have substance
GOAL: Medium Term 1 – 5 Years
- Transform MNF into a Gulf and Red Sea Treaty Organization (GRTO), with the
US as a full member, focused on sustained military defense of all partner nations
GOAL: Long Term (6-10 year and then sustained)
- Expand the GRTO into a multi-dimensional organization that stresses great
cooperation and integration of economic, political and industrial policies among
member nations.
GOAL: Short Term (Next 12 months)
Re-Set Iraq’s Borders As They Were/Destroy ISIS
- Recognizing and re-establishing Iraq as a whole nation, and destroying the ISIS and
other terror groups in Iraq is key to stability in Iraq and a key component of trying to
reestablish stability in the region.
– Not defending Iraq’s historic territory places at risk a centuries concept that is the root
of our modern understanding of nations and borders and international law.
- Failing to defend the idea of ‘Iraq’ and of Iraq’s borders would also provide justification
to Russian and Chinese claims to various lands (Ukraine, various isalnds in the East and
South China Seas, etc.)
Concept of Operations: Assemble a multi-national force (MNF) from Egypt, Saudi
Arabia/GCC, Turkey, Jordan to provide necessary ground forces, air forces and police
forces to re-establish order and control, eliminate the ISIS and return political control
and stability to a non-sectarian (non-religious) Iraq. US would provide key ‘enablers:’
Command and Control systems, Intelligence and Surveillance systems, Supply (Logistics).
The Multi-National Force would return Iraq to pre-2014 borders. A key assumption here
is that the MNF needs to clean the ISIS out of Baghdad, a long and difficult operation. To
do this there would be need of some Special Forces. There are two options: use US
Special Forces or use Special Forces from the MNF. Ideally, we would use MNF special
forces.
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A) MNF force (possibly to include Pakistan), US ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and
Reconnaissance , Command and Control, Logistics, selected air power, some US SOF
B) Same as above but with MNF SOF – no US SOF
In both cases:
- MNF provides additional support to Iraq in political, economic and industrial recovery
- MNF military forces immediate focus is to push back the major elements of the ISIS;
tehn to cut them off and destroy them. But the MNF as a whole would focus on political
unity in Iraq, downplaying and reducing any strain of sectarian strife. Iraqi Shia and
Sunni communities must be brought together to assist in the recovery.
The Great Fault Line in the Mid-East is the Sunni-Shia Schism – with nearly 7 out
of 8 Muslims being Sunni and almost 1 of 8 being Shia. But within the Mid-East the
numbers are a bit different, with Iran’s population being almost completely Shia, and
Iraq’s being more than half Shia, and with significant Shia populations in Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, and elsewhere. This schism is substantial – we are not going to solve it – it is
nearly 1400 years old and very much alive in the Muslim world; we must not promote it
or aggrevate it. Any solution that includes Iranian forces in Iraq will be result in not only
emphasising the issue in Iraq, Iraq’s neighbors will note that Iran ‘projecting power’ into
Iraq and hence nearer to them (Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, for example.) So, Iranian
presence in Iraq must be avoided, as it would make worse the current divide between
the Sunnis and the Shias in Iraq, and would as well aggrevate anti-Shia fear and unease
in other MNF countries.
- We must use these efforts to Demonstrate / Restore US Credibility. Loss of US
Credibility in international arena has grave 2nd and 3rd order effects in Mid East and
elsewhere (Russia-Ukraine, China-SE Asia, Latin America). Unintended consequences of
these 2nd / 3rd order effects include:
- loss in faith in US promises of defense, in particular loss of faith in US nuclear umbrella
- increased risk of nuclear proliferation in both the Mid-East and the Far East
This is in addition to concerns that a civil war in Iraq would lead to spikes in oil prices,
and would undermine the already weak economic recovery, while strengthening
Russia’s economy, and its political and economic leverage vis-à-vis Ukraine and Europe.
GOAL: Medium Term (1 year – 5 year)
Transform Coalition into a ‘Gulf and Red Sea Treaty Organization’ with US as full
partner. GRTO would be developed as a military focused organization during this period
and we would see GRTO nations begin to engage in fully integrated training, exercises
and real-world operations, using NATO as a model.
GOAL: Long Term (5 years and out)
Begin to expand GRTO into a regional, multi-dimensional (economic, industrial,
political) organization. The Long term goal is to develop GRTO so that in 20 years GRTO
can operate in parrellel with, and in partner with NATO.
(GCC=Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Oman)
For more information visit
http://londoncenter.org
For more information visit
http://londoncenter.org