Download FX Weekly 22/04/13

Foreign Exchange: Strategy - Weekly Currency View
22 April 2013
This week’s key FX themes
„
„
Over recent months, the correlation between the growth rates in the
US economy and the USD has increased. This week the key focus
will be on the first estimate of Q1 US GDP (Friday). While we think
US economic growth accelerated in Q1, our expectations for
seasonally adjusted Q1 US growth are slightly below the market
consensus (CBA 2.6%, market consensus 3.1%). Based on the
correlation witness recently, a slightly softer than expected Q1 US
GDP print may weigh modestly on the USD. Alternatively, a better
than expected outcome may only temporarily add to USD strength,
given the late March/early April US economic data appears to be
softening.
(monthly average)
60
60
Economic Data
Outperforms
Expectations
30
30
2013
0
0
2012
-30
-30
Economic Data
Underperforms
Expectations
USD/JPY has risen after the G20 Communique noted that “Japan’s
recent policy actions are intended to stop deflation and support
domestic demand.” We are not at all surprised by the contents of
the G20 Communique (nor the lift in USD/JPY) because the
mechanics of Japan’s quantitative easing efforts (or any country’s
quantitative easing efforts) are not designed with the explicit aim of
depreciating a currency. Quantitative easing is designed to lower a
country’s local term interest rates and accelerate local bank
lending. For more details see CBA FX Strategy – Does QE Really
Weaken the Currency?, published 17 April 2013. In our view
USD/JPY will continue to rise and break above 100.00 this week,
driven by the collapse in Japan’s current account surplus.
Nevertheless, this week’s BoJ policy meeting (Friday) may garner
some attention. Although no fresh policy announcements are
expected, interest will be the BoJ board’s new growth and inflation
forecasts. Specifically, focus will be on whether the BoJ board
expects the BoJ to achieve its 2% inflation target in the next 2
years or on a longer-term basis.
„
G10 ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX
AUD/USD remains under a modest amount of downward pressure
as commodity prices remain somewhat heavy and the USD
somewhat firm. The Australian Q1 2013 CPI (Wednesday) and
HSBC’s China flash manufacturing PMI for April (Tuesday) are likely
to be the main influences on AUD/USD this week. CBA economists
forecast for Australian underlying CPI (0.6%/2.5%pa) are slightly
above consensus (0.5%/2.4%pa). A CPI outcome close to CBA’s
projection should lead the RBA to keep its now standard line “the
2011
-60
-60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
JAPAN INFLATION
%
%
3.0
3.0
BoJ's Inflation Target (2.0%)
1.5
1.5
Core CPI (ex.
fresh food)
0.0
0.0
-1.5
-1.5
Headline CPI
Core CPI (ex.
fresh food &
energy)
-3.0
-3.0
Jan-99
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-08
Jan-11
CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI &
AUD/USD
USD
Index
60
1.20
Offical PMI
(lhs)
AUD/USD
(rhs)
56
1.10
inflation outlook, as assessed at present, would afford scope to
ease policy further, should that be necessary to support demand”.
The AUD/USD is likely to stay heavy if China’s flash PMI remains
near March’s level of 51.6 (consensus forecast for April is 51.4).
But we don’t anticipate AUD/USD will break its recent trading
range.
„
Late last week Fitch downgraded the UK’s sovereign rating by one
notch from AAA to AA+. Fitch cited the UK’s weaker economic and
fiscal outlook as the key reasons behind the decision. The move by
Fitch follows on from Moody’s, who downgraded the UK in
February. This leaves S&P as the last major ratings agency to have
52
1.00
48
0.90
HSBC PMI (lhs)
44
Jan-10
0.80
Oct-10
Jul-11
Apr-12
Jan-13
Peter Dragicevich Currency Strategist T. +612 9118 1107 E. [email protected]
Richard Grace Chief Currency Strategist & Head of International Economics T. +612 9117 0080 E. [email protected]
Chris Tennent-Brown FX Economist T. +612 9117 1378 E. [email protected]
Andy Ji Asian Currency Strategist T. +65 6349 7056 E. [email protected]
Joseph Capurso Currency Strategist T. +612 9118 1106 E. [email protected]
Important Disclosures and analyst certifications regarding subject companies are in the Disclosure and Disclaimer Appendix of this document and at
www.research.commbank.com.au. This report is published, approved and distributed by Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945.
Global Markets Research
Foreign Exchange: Strategy - Weekly Currency View
the UK still rated AAA; however S&P have the rating on negative
outlook. In our view, given the Fitch UK downgrade was expected
it is unlikely to have a lasting and direct impact on GBP.
Nonetheless, it does highlight the continued headwinds faced by
the UK. We retain our bearish medium-term outlook for GBP. This
week, the first estimate of Q1 UK GDP is released (Thursday).
Given the relative improvement in the partial indicators, a flat to
small positive outturn in Q1 UK GDP is likely. While this would help
the UK avoid a triple dip recession, it would only be the 2nd
positive quarter of growth recorded in the UK since Q4 2011. We
expect the BoE to announce more stimulus to support the UK
economy in the coming months. The probability of more BoE
stimulus, negative UK real bond yields, weak UK growth and a wide
UK current account deficit (3.7% of UK GDP) should all weigh on
GBP over the medium-term.
„
The main focus for the NZD this week is the RBNZ Official Cash
Rate review (Wednesday). The NZD TWI is now down 2.4% from
the record high touched on 11 April, though it is still above the level
recorded after the RBNZ's March policy meeting. Despite this
decline, the RBNZ still faces a very difficult balancing act between
the high NZD and rising housing market pressures when it meets
this week. We expect the RBNZ to hold the cash rate at 2.5%, but
should continue to try and jawbone the NZD lower. At this meeting
the RBNZ only delivers a brief statement, rather than a full
Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). Accordingly, there is less scope
to discuss alternative scenarios for the cash rate, as the RBNZ did
in March. In the March MPS, the RBNZ presented a scenario
where the cash rate could be cut if the NZD stayed firm. The RBNZ
labelled the NZD as overvalued and is likely to remain frustrated by
the high NZD. Any jawboning by the RBNZ will likely cause some
temporary weakness in the NZD next week. AUD/NZD may
temporarily spike higher. But as we have observed since the March
MPS, it is very unlikely to have a lasting impact on the NZD.
UK RECOVERY FROM RECESSION
(rebased GDP cyclical peak = 100)
101
101
1956
100
1961/62
1990/93 1973/76
100
99
99
1979/83
98
98
97
97
96
96
2008 - current
95
95
94
94
93
93
0
2
4
6
8
10 12 14 16 18
Number of Quarters for UK GDP to Recover
20
NZD TWI FORECAST
85
85
CBA(f)
80
80
TWI daily
75
75
70
65
65
Source: RBNZ
60
Mar-10
60
Mar-12
Mar-14
EUROZONE GDP & COMPOSITE PMI
%
3
„
„
EUR/USD continues to trade within its recent range. Early this
week EUR may receive some support from the news that Italian
President Napolitano was elected to a second term, accepting a
last minute request from party leaders in Italy to run again, after five
failed attempts to elect a president over the week. The Italian
presidential election is an important step towards holding fresh
elections, which are likely to be held in the coming months.
Nevertheless, the Eurozone’s macro outlook remains weak and
should limit EUR gains. This week the key data focus will be on the
flash estimates of the April Eurozone PMIs and German IFO
(Tuesday and Wednesday). Last week ECB President Draghi noted
that the ECB “haven’t seen any improvement” in the Eurozone
economic situation in recent weeks. A further dip in the Eurozone
PMIs and/or German IFO in April could weigh on core Eurozone
bond yields as expectations that the ECB could announce further
policy stimulus as early as 2 May lift. The rising prospect of further
ECB stimulus may exert some downward pressure on the EUR.
Speculation is rising that the PBoC will widen the daily +/- 1.0%
USD/CNY exchange rate trading band. We believe the PBoC will
undertake a further widening in the USD/CNY exchange rate band
over the course of 2013, but the timing remains uncertain. We also
believe the PBoC will begin to make greater reference to the CNY
trading band against a basket of currencies in their commentary
during 2013. However, it is important to recognize that the pace of
greater exchange flexibility beyond the two steps described
immediately above is essentially governed by the development of
China’s domestic financial system, and these changes will take
place in a phased and glacial manner over many years.
70
RBNZ
March MPS
Pts
64
60
2
Eurozone GDP
(%QoQ) (lhs)
1
56
0
52
-1
48
44
-2
Eurozone
Composite PMI
(rhs)
-3
-4
Jun-07
40
36
Dec-08
Jun-10
Dec-11
Jun-13
EUR/USD & GERMANY-US AVERAGE
BOND SPREAD
USD
Bpts
1.50
80
EUR/USD
(rhs)
33
1.38
-13
1.27
Germany-US
Bond Spread (average 2,5 &
10 Year Spreads) (lhs)
-60
Jun-10
1.15
Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12
Oct-12 May-13
2
Global Markets Research
Foreign Exchange: Strategy - Weekly Currency View
Our core medium-term (3-6 month) views
Majors
USD
Neutral
Over recent months the USD has traded with a positive correlation with the US economic data. Although the US economy
appears to be currently going through a soft patch, it continues to outperform the other major G7 economies. While this
relative growth outperformance continues, we expect the USD to remain supported against currencies linked to weaker
economies, such as the EUR, GBP and JPY. Nevertheless, as we expect the Fed will maintain its ultra-loose monetary
policy stance over 2014; US real yields should remain negative. When combined with the US’ large current account deficit
(3% of US GDP) a sustained broad based strengthening in the USD is unlikely. In sum the USD should range trade.
EUR/USD
Neutral
Although the Eurozone policy framework now in place has reduced the probability of a disorderly outcome, pockets of
uncertainty, such as the inconclusive Italian elections and public finance issues across the periphery, remain. Added to this
the macro environment remains weak. The risk of further ECB policy stimulus over coming months cannot be discounted.
Given these factors, the German-US two-year yield differential remains deep in negative territory. A sustained lift in
EUR/USD is unlikely until core Eurozone bond yields push higher. On the flip side, the Eurozone current account surplus
(1.1% of Eurozone GDP) should limit any significant declines in the EUR.
AUD/USD
Neutral
Given the low vol. environment, Australia’s superior relative economic fundamentals should continue to support the AUD.
Australia’s economic growth remains around trend, the Asian economic outlook remains robust, and on a risk-adjusted
return basis Australian bond yields remain attractive. A firming domestic economic backdrop should see market
expectations for further RBA policy stimulus ease, which in turn should keep the Australia-US yield spread wide (currently
247bpts). In addition to the solid demand for AUD-denominated bonds, foreign direct investment into Australia continues
to rise. These foreign inflows should keep any dips in the AUD/USD relatively shallow.
NZD/USD
Neutral
We expect the NZD/USD to remain well supported for a number of reasons: (1) From a relative sense, New Zealand’s
economy continues to perform well; (2) The mix of a drought-induced supply constraint and improving growth in Asia
continues to support global dairy prices; (3) New Zealand bond yields remain attractive. The New Zealand-US 3-year swap
spread is currently 255bpts; (4) Although we expect the RBNZ to remain on the sidelines for an extended period, we
continue to anticipate its next move to be a rate hike; (5) Inflows into NZD remain strong. These flows stem from growing
offshore demand for New Zealand government bonds and ongoing re-insurance inflows associated with the Christchurch
earthquake. We estimate these inflows are equivalent to some 30% of NZ’s exports.
GBP/USD
Mildly Bearish
In our view, GBP/USD should ease over the coming months. There are a number of factors that should keep GBP heavy:
(a) The UK economy remains weak. The UK economy remains 2.9% below its pre-crisis peak; (b) Given the poor growth
backdrop we expect the Bank of England (BoE) to announce further policy stimulus in the coming months; (c) The ongoing
risk of more BoE stimulus should keep UK gilt yields under pressure; (d) UK inflation remains elevated; (e) UK real bond
yields remain negative out to 20 years; (f) The UK is currently running a current account deficit equal to 3.7% of UK GDP.
USD/JPY
Bullish
Although the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy stimulus measures continue to garner market attention, our core view continues
to be that it is the collapse in Japan’s current account surplus that is the driver behind the weaker JPY. This structural
change should continue to keep dips in USD/JPY shallow and well supported. Although we think the decline in the JPY is
structural, the BoJ’s new aggressive policy stance should accelerate the decline. As the BoJ doubles its purchases of
JGB’s, Japanese bond yields should ease. In turn, this may indirectly encourage some Japanese participants to seek
higher yields on offer offshore and/or Japanese banks try and lend more offshore.
USD/CAD
Neutral
Given the close trade ties, questions about the outlook for the US and Canadian economies have dampened demand for
the CAD (supported USD/CAD). In addition, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has watered down its perceived tightening bias over
recent months, and this has weighed on Canadian bond yields and the CAD. While we do not think the Canadian economy
is as weak as recent data releases have indicated, USD/CAD is unlikely to ease substantially lower until the Canadian
economic data (or the outlook for the US economy) shows sustained improvement. Nevertheless, range trading in the USD
and ongoing demand for CAD-denominated assets should cap any significant moves higher in USD/CAD.
3
Global Markets Research
Foreign Exchange: Strategy - Weekly Currency View
Asian Currencies
USD/CNY
Mildly Bearish
Overwhelming demand for the domestic currency continues to come from on and off-shore participants. With USD/CNY
regularly trading at the daily limit of 1% below its midpoint, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to allow lower
fixings over coming months to avoid injecting more liquidity into the already flush Chinese banking system. We believe the
PBoC will undertake a further widening in the USD/CNY exchange rate band over the course of 2013, but the timing
remains uncertain. As a result, we expect USD/CNY to continue to grind lower, particularly as the USD range-trades.
USD/KRW
Mildly Bearish
The USD/KRW has edged higher following the depreciation in the JPY which has generated some KRW weakness.
Moreover, the recent escalation in the geopolitical tussle in the region is keeping the pair well supported. Nevertheless, we
expect the significant valuation support from South Korea’s favourable terms-of-trade to persist. As a result, we think
USD/KRW will reverse its recent rise once the geopolitical risks start to subside.
USD/IDR
Neutral
The chronic onshore USD shortage continues to rattle investor confidence in the domestic currency. Moreover, both
headline and core Indonesian CPI remains elevated, suggesting heightened inflationary pressures. Recent data also
suggests foreign holdings of local currency denominated government bonds may be approaching saturation point. As
such, we expect USD/IDR to be relatively well supported over coming months.
USD/SGD
Mildly Bearish
The SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) has been little changed recently. The Monetary Authority of Singapore
(MAS) decided to keep its existing “modest and gradual appreciation” stance at its April semi-annual policy meeting. As
we expect the SGD NEER to remain in the upper half of its trading band, USD/SGD is likely to resume its gradual decline in
coming months as the SGD firms, underpinned by Singapore’s current account surplus.
AUD Crosses
AUD/NZD
Mildly Bearish
The AUD/NZD exchange rate is very interest rate sensitive. Accordingly, the cross rate will be very sensitive to changing
perceptions about the RBNZ and RBA interest rate outlooks. Our New Zealand and Australian economists expect the
RBNZ and RBA to remain on hold over 2013. On balance, our economists expect the next move from either central bank
will be a rate hike from the RBNZ in early 2014. The combination of the RBA on hold, and building expectations of an
RBNZ rate hike should see the Australia-New Zealand 2-year swap spread narrow. This is a key factor that should continue
to exert downward pressure on AUD/NZD over 2013, as will on-going re-insurance inflows into New Zealand.
AUD/EUR
Neutral
The ongoing Eurozone economic recession, depressed core Eurozone bond yields, the risk of more ECB policy stimulus
and pockets of banking sector and sovereign concern across the periphery should keep near-term EUR gains limited. By
contrast, the Australian economy continues to track close to trend, while market expectations regarding further RBA policy
easing continue to recede. This should keep Australian bond yields relatively elevated and the Australia-Eurozone bond
spread supported. With vol. low, the relative economic differences between Australian and the Eurozone should keep
AUD/EUR firm. However, given the Eurozone current account surplus has lifted to a record high (1.1% of Eurozone GDP)
and Australia’s current account deficit has widened to 3.9% of Australian GDP, a return to the 2012 AUD/EUR highs
(0.8616) appears unlikely at this stage.
AUD/GBP
Mildly Bullish
The UK economy continues to underperform Australia’s. The probability of more BoE policy stimulus over coming months
continues to stand in stark contrast the falling market expectations of more RBA policy stimulus. Assuming vol. remains
subdued, the two-year Australia-UK yield differential (currently 247bpts), combined with the various ongoing headwinds
faced by the UK economy should prove to be AUD/GBP supportive. A re-test of the 28-year AUD/GBP high (0.6956)
remains a chance over coming months assuming vol. remains low.
AUD/JPY
Bullish
The deterioration in Japan’s current account surplus should continue to keep the JPY on the back foot and in turn buoy
AUD/JPY. Added to this, AUD/JPY remains very interest rate sensitive. Given the BoJ’s new aggressive policy easing,
Japanese bond yields should remain under downward pressure. By contrast, the risk is the RBA is at or near the end of its
easing cycle. This should keep the risk-adjusted return on offer in AUD-denominated assets at attractive levels. With the
macro differentials between Australian and Japan widening, and with structural JPY weakening taking place, a lift in
AUD/JPY above the 2007 high (107.87) over coming months is looking increasingly probable.
AUD/CAD
Mildly Bullish
Given its close trade ties, concerns about the US economic outlook should continue to dampen CAD demand. By contrast,
Asia’s economy continues to show improvement. In turn this continues to be AUD and mildly AUD/CAD supportive. The
4
Global Markets Research
Foreign Exchange: Strategy - Weekly Currency View
changing market perceptions regarding the outlooks for future RBA and BoC policy is another factor keeping AUD/CAD
firm. The Australia-Canada two-year yield spread is currently 176bpts. This is up from 147bpts in mid-January. There
appear to be some slight upside risks to our current AUD/CAD forecasts.
European Crosses
EUR/GBP
Mildly Bullish
While our core view is for EUR/GBP to grind higher over coming months, the ongoing Eurozone recession, mixed with the
pockets of uncertainty across the Eurozone periphery are EUR/GBP headwinds. Nevertheless, the policy framework now in
place within the Eurozone has reduced the risk of a disorderly outcome and this should limit EUR/GBP declines. As the
uncertainty in the Eurozone periphery clears, the greater relative economic change in 2013 should occur in the Eurozone
economy as it emerges from a deeper recession. Also likely to support EUR/GBP is the higher probability of further BoE
policy stimulus compared to ECB policy stimulus. While there is a risk the ECB follows suit, there is a greater chance the
ECB initiates policies to improve the Eurozone monetary policy transmission mechanism rather than lower the refi-rate.
EUR/JPY
Mildly Bullish
The decline in Japan’s current account surplus to less than 1% of Japanese GDP continues to drive a structural decline in
the JPY. By contrast, the Eurozone’s current account surplus continues to push higher (now at 1.1% of Eurozone GDP).
These shifting external balance dynamics should continue to support EUR/JPY. Moreover, the BoJ’s aggressive balance
sheet expansion remains in stark contrast to the ECB’s balance sheet which is currently contracting, driven by the
repayment of borrowed LTRO funds by Eurozone banks. The relative balance sheet differential between the ECB and the
BoJ has tended to be a good medium-term EUR/JPY guide over recent years.
EUR/CHF and USD/CHF
Neutral & Neutral
The prolonged Eurozone economic recession, overlayed with Eurozone banking sector concerns is keeping the EUR heavy.
These factors should keep EUR/CHF range bound over the coming months. We do not expect significant falls in EUR/CHF
from current levels. We expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to successfully maintain its EUR/CHF 1.2000 minimum
exchange rate policy for the foreseeable future. Given the SNB’s exchange rate policy, direction in USD/CHF remains
highly contingent on movements in EUR/USD and to a lesser extent on broader USD movements. We do not expect to see
sustained EUR/USD gains until the Eurozone economic backdrop improves. Hence, until such time, USD/CHF is likely to
remain well supported.
NZD Crosses
NZD/AUD
Mildly Bullish
The NZD/AUD exchange rate is very interest rate sensitive. Accordingly, the cross rate will be very sensitive to changing
perceptions about the RBNZ and RBA interest rate outlooks. Our New Zealand and Australian economists expect the
RBNZ and RBA to remain on hold over 2013. On balance, our economists expect the next move from either central bank
will be a rate hike from the RBNZ in early 2014. The combination of the RBA on hold, and building expectations of an
RBNZ rate hike should support the New Zealand-Australia yield differential. This is a key factor that should help guide
NZD/AUD higher over coming months, as will on-going reinsurance inflows into New Zealand.
NZD/EUR
Mildly Bullish
The ongoing Eurozone economic recession, the risk of more ECB policy stimulus and pockets of banking sector concerns
across the periphery should keep near-term EUR gains limited. By contrast, the New Zealand economy continues to
recover, and we expect the next move from the RBNZ to be a rate hike, albeit in early 2014. This should help keep New
Zealand bond yields relatively elevated, and maintain a high level of demand from offshore investors. Assuming vol.
remains low, the yield advantage of New Zealand over core European bonds, and relative economic differences between
New Zealand and the Eurozone should keep NZD/EUR firm. A test of the NZD/EUR record high (0.6681) is possible.
NZD/GBP
Mildly Bullish
Despite the patchy nature of the New Zealand economic recovery over the past year, the New Zealand economy continues
to out-perform the UK economy. The probability of more BoE policy stimulus over coming months is high, and contrasts
our expectation that the next move from the RBNZ is a rate hike (albeit not until early 2014). Assuming vol. remains
subdued, New Zealand’s yield advantage, combined with the various ongoing headwinds faced by the UK economy should
prove to be NZD/GBP supportive. NZD/GBP remains supported near its post-float high (0.5647).
NZD/JPY
Bullish
The deterioration in Japan’s current account surplus should continue to keep the JPY on the back foot and in turn support
cross/JPY, including NZD/JPY. The BoJ’s new aggressive policy easing means Japanese bond yields should remain under
downward pressure. New Zealand’s interest rate advantage over Japan is set to continue, and widen over the year ahead
as the beginning of the RBNZ’s tightening cycle draws closer. We expect NZD/JPY to continue its pattern of appreciation
that has been occurring since June 2012 over the coming months. Although periods of JPY consolidation are likely, the
5
Global Markets Research
Foreign Exchange: Strategy - Weekly Currency View
risk is our June 2013 NZD/JPY forecast of 85.00 is achieved early.
Foreign Exchange Forecasts
End Pe riod
Jun-13
Se p-13
De c-13
End Pe riod
M ar-14
M ajors
Jun-13
Se p-13
De c-13
M ar-14
Europe an cros s rate s
EUR/USD
1.3500
1.3700
1.3800
1.4000
EUR/JPY
132.30
137.00
138.00
145.60
USD/JPY
98.00
100.00
100.00
104.00
EUR/GBP
0.9122
0.9384
0.9452
0.9524
GBP/USD
1.4800
1.4600
1.4600
1.4700
EUR/CHF
1.2650
1.2800
1.2900
1.3000
A UD/USD
1.0400
1.0400
1.0400
1.0300
EUR/A UD
1.2981
1.3173
1.3269
1.3592
NZD/USD
0.8400
0.8500
0.8500
0.8600
EUR/NZD
1.6071
1.6118
1.6235
1.6279
USD/CA D
0.9900
0.9900
0.9800
0.9800
GBP/JPY
145.04
146.00
146.00
152.88
USD/CHF
0.9370
0.9343
0.9348
0.9286
GBP/CHF
1.3868
1.3641
1.3648
1.3650
USD/CNY
6.1600
6.1200
6.0000
5.9000
GBP/A UD
1.4231
1.4038
1.4038
1.4272
GBP/NZD
1.7619
1.7176
1.7176
1.7093
AUD cros s rate s
A UD/EUR
0.7704
0.7591
0.7536
0.7357
Non-Japan As ia
A UD/GBP
0.7027
0.7123
0.7123
0.7007
USD/SGD
1.2150
1.2000
1.1900
1.1700
A UD/JPY
101.92
104.00
104.00
107.12
USD/HKD
7.7500
7.7500
7.7500
7.7500
A UD/NZD
1.2381
1.2235
1.2235
1.1977
USD/THB
29.40
29.20
28.90
29.00
A UD/CA D
1.0296
1.0296
1.0192
1.0094
USD/IDR
9500
9200
9000
9000
A UD/CHF
0.9745
0.9717
0.9722
0.9564
USD/TWD
28.50
28.25
28.00
27.75
A UD/CNY
6.4064
6.3648
6.2400
6.0770
USD/KRW
1025
1000
950
925
A UD/SGD
1.2636
1.2480
1.2376
1.2051
USD/MY R
3.00
2.90
2.85
2.80
USD/V ND
22000
22000
22000
22000
NZD cros s rate s
NZD/EUR
0.6222
0.6204
0.6159
0.6143
USD/PHP
40.00
39.50
39.00
38.50
NZD/GBP
0.5676
0.5822
0.5822
0.5850
USD/INR
51.00
49.00
48.00
47.50
NZD/JPY
82.32
85.00
85.00
89.44
NZD/A UD
0.8077
0.8173
0.8173
0.8350
NZD/CA D
0.8316
0.8415
0.8330
0.8428
NZD/CHF
0.7871
0.7942
0.7946
0.7986
NZD/CNY
5.1744
5.2020
5.1000
5.0740
* Fo recasts were adjusted o n 27 February 2013
* JP Y fo recasts were o riginally lo wered o n 19 Decem ber 2012
6
Global Markets Research
Foreign Exchange: Strategy - Weekly Currency View
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Global Markets Research
Foreign Exchange: Strategy - Weekly Currency View
Research
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8