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A CIVILIZATIONAL CRISIS FROM ‘SUSTAINABLE GROWTH’ TO SEARCH FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE/HUMANITY İbrahim Öztürk Prof. Dr. Marmara University Bosphorus Unv. Center for Asian Studies DO NOT AFREAD OF CRISIS BUT PUT EMPHASSI ON THE QUALITY OF YOUR RESPONSE THE NECESSITY IS THE MOTHER OF INVENTION THE CRISIS of 1970s... Post 2nd. WW qantitif or physical developement saturated as of 1970s. Return on capital started decreasing. What is next? Side efect of developmentalist / Keynesian state emerged. Collapse of Gold Standard /End of Bretton Woods System Oil Crisis and Stagflation Significant convergence amongs latecomers and the leading Cs. THE RESPONSE (NOT Crisis but quality of reaction defining) The rise of Neo-Liberal Order: Deregulation, end of nation states as unit of analysis. Governance Structures and Institutional Foundation of market under attack Trade and Finance Liberalization. Seperation of capital and the nation states. From stake holder to share holder value maximization. The rise of virtual, finance and the bubble economy through financial innovations. Gap widens btw. reel economy and the finance capital: Excessive financializaiton Real Estate Bubbles fastened: Chain was cut in Japan at early 1990s and then spreaded to the rest of the World. Unlike the first and second Industrial Revolution, now factors are flowing from oceans to the inner lands, what has been called periphery. Natural Law: Some How Irreversible! Demographic Structure Alienation Excessive Exploitation of Resources Global Warming Evrironmental Degradation Food and Commodity Aging Erosion of family Excessive selfishness and atomization Lack of hope and motivation in young generations The rise of racism Joblessness / Unemployment Inevitably rising protectionism Lack of Leadership and Governance Crisis Cold War Global institutions: Legitimacy problem FROM CRISIS TO THE QUALITY OF REACTION Crisis, Innovaiton Waves and Technological Breakthrougs (A Schumpeterian Creative Destruction?) I. Industrial Revolution (1780-1840): Mass production of textile, cotton critical input II. IR (1840-1890): Steam Engine, Railroads, Coal III. Waves of Change ( 1890-1940): Electricity,Steel and Iron Age IV. Waves of Change (1940-1990): Otomobile, Mass Prod. Of Synthetic industrial goods. Energy (Oil) V. Waves of Change (1990-?): The Age of ‘Nano’ and ‘speed revolution’ (Knowledge, Communication, Computer networks, Nano-Engineering. Semi-conductors or micro electronic) ENERGY ENVIRONMENT HEALTH/BIOTECH FOOD NANO-REVOLUTION IT (THE AGE OF HIGH RISK HIGH RETURN (ALL NECESSARY BUT NOT SUFFICIENT!) GROWTH DYNAMICS DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE GEO-STRATEGIC POSITION KEY RESOURCES (ENERGY-COMMODITY) PROXIMITY TO THE MAJOR EMERGING MARKETS STILL KNOWLEDGE AS WE ARE ON THE SAME SHIP INDIVIDUAL STORIES DO NOT WORK BIG PICTURE: FACING THE ICEBERG Macro results Overheating and resistance Micro results &Fundamentals Water Level Systemic and Structural Parameters Culture / Mentality GLOBAL PROBLEM GLOBAL SOLUTION SINCE THE LAST CRISIS: OLD WINE IN OLD BOTTLE! SHOULD GO BEYOND MATERIAL REACTIONS SUCH AS MOTIVATING GROWTH ETC. QUESTIONING THE FUNDAMENTALS: PREMISES AND POSTULATES NEW TRINITY OF HUMAN BEING: FREEDOM, MARKET AND MORALITY (Institutionalization and endogenizing values in economic theroy) LISTENING TO William Greider: The Soul of Capitalism: Opening Path to a Moral Economy, 2003. Amartya Sen, On Ethics and Economy, 1998. A WORKING SYSTYEM REQUIRES SYNTHESIS BTW. 1. MARKET (PRICE) MECHANISM, 2. INSTITUTIONS, AND 3. CULTURE: None of them can be sacrificed INSTITUTIONS WORK WITH CULTURE BUT CULTURE CAN NOT BE IMPORTED. AN INDIGENOUS LEARNING BY DOING IS UNAVOIDABLE. MODERNIST DOGMAS DO NOT WORK. HOWEVER, A UNIVERSAL LEARNING CURVE EFFECT IS QUITE USEFUL REFORM AND CHANGE: A “REVERSE ENGINEERING” OR RE-PRODUCTION OF THE STATUSQUO IS NOT REALISTIC A NEW MOTIVATION SCHEME through LEGITIMACY (with different mode of distribution, participation, transparency, accountability, responsibility, regulation) A NEW SOCİAL CONTRACT is urgent POLITICAL STABILITY GOOD GOVERNANCE, CAPACITY AND AUTONOMY OF STATE CHNAHING ASIA GDP (bill. dollars) Pop. (000 persons) Per-capita (GDP, $) World 59900 6,707.000 8940 Asia 16700 4,054,000 4175 Jap. 5068 127.551 39740 China 4984 1,334.740 3734 Russia 1231 141.900 8681 India 1236 1,199.062 1031 S. korea 832 48.758 17074 Turkey 614 70.538 8711 Indonezia 539 231.547 2329 Saudi Arabia 376 25.519 14744 Taivan 378 23.120 16372 UAE 223 4.908 45614 Kaynak: IMF 30 28 SHARE OF ASIA IN WORLD GDP (PPP) 28,3 26 24 22 20 18 16 14,4 14 12 10 8 9,5 8,0 7,2 6 5,2 4 2 0 Japonya Yeni Sanayileşen Asya Ülkeleri Gelişmekte olan Asya ASEAN-5