Download Astana, 14 – 17 March 2011

Why are Short-term economic
statistics important?
User views on
Short-term economic statistics
UNECE Training Workshop
“Short-term statistics and seasonal adjustment”
Astana, 14 – 17 March 2011
Petteri Baer, Marketing Manager, Statistics Finland
Everybody acknowledges the importance of
National Accounts
Sure, we need something
to measure the economic
growth of the society
 Sure, we need international
comparability at the level of
different economies
 Sure, we need a
denominator for the shares
of different industries in the
economy

GDP
“- Yes, of
course”
Petteri Baer
14 - 17 March 2011
2
What about short-term statistics on
economic development?
It may be another story
 Why?

No real supply provided by official statistics (?)
 Too many disappointments, when requesting good AND
timely statistics
 Substitutive indicators, guesstimates in wide use
 And if there IS some supply



Often not much information provided to potential users
Misinterpretations about the consistency of the statistical
information due to necessary revisions
Petteri Baer
14 - 17 March 2011
3
More and more statistical publication takes
place on the internet…
Internet hosts in the World
in the beginning of each year
* Millions *
500
450
This is a very positive
development
 Availability and accessibility of
official statistics has grown
substantially
 In the beginning of the year
2008

433
400
350
300
250

200
147
150

100
50
16
0.00002
0.03
0.7
1982
1987
1992
0
14 - 17 March 2011
1997
2002
2007
>500 Million internet hosts in the
world!
This also increases pressure
on timeliness
But note:
– There are traps on the way!
Just putting your information
on your web site does not
automatically mean it is
utilized
 Even though your web
information is utilized, it
does not mean that your
most important users make
use of it

14 - 17 March 2011
Traps on the way, continued
All potential
users
These guys
are real users
Heavy
user
 You may cover only a tiny
share of your potential users
- but not recognize it!
Petteri Baer
14 - 17 March 2011
6
Traps on the way, continued

Counting the popularity
of your web site by
“hits” may deceive you
because

14 - 17 March 2011
a substantial part of the
“fabulous growth” comes
from search engines
checking if you have any
new information
Very often you do not really know, who your users
are, when you provide services on the internet
Petteri Baer
14 - 17 March 2011
8
A Problem
- as posed in a Pretoria Expert Group Seminar in 2003
“Statisticians like to talk
to one another in
mysterious ways and with
a time clock which runs
10 times slower than
everyone else's”
  We have to
communicate better!
  We have to imagine
ourselves into the position
of the potential users of our
information!

14 - 17 March 2011
Especially concerning Short-term
economic statistics…

Timeliness is an issue of
huge importance
Trade-off between
timeliness and accuracy
- always
 Globalization
 Modern communication
tools

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The voice of a policy maker
Rob Wright, Deputy Minister of the Department of Finance
of Canada, opening in May 2009 the
 International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends in
Ottawa, organized by UNSD and Statistics Canada

Petteri Baer
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Rob Wright: The role of Data in Public
Policy Development
“Process of policy development is lengthy
 Research and analysis required to understand when and
where policy change and reform are needed
 Designing policy
 Developing consensus (political, public)
 We rely on high quality and timely data throughout the
process”

Petteri Baer
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12
Rob Wright: How can statisticians
improve public policy?
“Identify and close data gaps
 Priority to long term issues and trends
 But there is a need to be able to adapt to current
developments, if possible
 Identify turning points
 Consult users
 Government, private sector, researchers”

Petteri Baer
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The importance of turning points in
the assessing development
In assessing economic
development
 In designing financial
and monetary policy
decisions


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In making investment
decisions
The voice of a businessman and banker

Don Drummond, Chief Economist of Toronto Dominion
Bank, Canada, opening the International Seminar,
mentioned above:

"I would rather have no data
than wrong data."
Petteri Baer
14 - 17 March 2011
15
Statistics Canada performed a stakeholder
need assessment in 2008 (1)
…with the central users of
Short-term economic
statistics
 A great deal of trust for
Canadian Statistics was
expressed in the services of
Statistics Canada on STS
 At the same time, the
following improvements
were required:

Better timeliness
 Additional questions to be
included in the Labour
Force Survey
 Better metadata and
 Improvements on the web
site and the search engine

Petteri Baer
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Statistics Canada performed a stakeholder
need assessment in 2008 (2)
Other issues that came
up in this consultation
with the main
stakeholders:
 A worry that a NSO
should not rush into
short-term data
collection without the
usual testing of the
instrument

Short term ad hoc
measures will not be
useful unless there is
time series continuity
 The agency should
continue its longer-term
investments in quality
improve-ments and new
data products

Petteri Baer
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Conclusions

Short-term economic statistics ARE important and their
importance is growing



Not only as a service item
But also for building up the image and the reputation of the
statistical agency as an important, accurate and timely information
provider
Identifying turning points in the economic cycle is one of
the most important functions

Availability and comparability of long term time series and seasonal
adjustment of fixed term indices are of top importance
Keep your users well informed about your services
 Understand your audiences’ specific needs by better
communication

Petteri Baer
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