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Weight gain in relation to cancer risk Thesis Sandra van den Broek, Augustus – November 2008 Supervised by A. May, Julius Centre INTRODUCTION: Obesity has been recognized as an increasing problem in the western countries. Obesity, determined as a single measurement of weight (and height) at a certain moment, has already been associated with an increased risk for several cancers. Nevertheless, weight change seems to be a more appropriate measure for adiposity in humans. AIM: Systematically review the effect of weight gain (throughout life) on the risk of several types of cancers. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We selected 58 studies, which investigated the relation of weight gain with breast cancer or/and ovarian cancer or/and endometrial cancer or/and prostate cancer or/and colorectal cancer. Furthermore, of all the studies we evaluated the study design, the characteristics of the study populations, the method of exposure assessment, specific cancer outcomes, confounding factors and effect modifiers. RESULTS: The studies discussed differed with respect to study design, sample size and confounding factors (within a certain cancer outcome). The majority of studies assessed weight gain information retrospectively (by recall), and were entailed by numerous biases. Only a few studies assessed weight gain prospectively. However, this studies only investigated the effect of short-term weight gain. Increases of risk for post-menopausal cancers in relation to weight gain were reported in many studies, however only in non-HRT users. Studies which also stratified on menopausal status, did not find this effect in pre-menopausal women. For the other cancers discussed, no consistent increases or decreases in risk were found. CONCLUSION: Weight gain seems to increase the risk for post-menopausal breast cancer. In contrast, weight gain does not seem to change the risk for pre-menopausal breast cancer. Ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer, prostate cancer and colon-rectal cancer were not studied as extensively as breast cancer in relation to weight gain. Before drawing any conclusions about these type of cancer, more large, prospective studies are needed. Introduction In the last years obesity has been recognized as an increasing problem. In the world there are more than 1 billion people overweight, of which 300 million are severely obese1. When people have a Body Mass Index (BMI) over 30, it is called obesity. Obesity is known as a major contributor to the burden of chronic diseases in the world, such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes2. Obesity as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases is known for many years, however, more recently many studies have been performed investigating the relation between cancer and obesity3. Obesity, determined by a single measurement of weight (and height) at a certain moment, has been shown to be associated with an increased risk of postmenopausal breast cancer, oesophagus cancer, pancreas cancer, colorectal cancer, endometrial cancer and kidney cancer 3. Some biological mechanisms have been suggested underlying the associations of different cancers and obesity. Although the most mechanisms are not fully understood, it seems to be there is evidence for the relation between cancer risk and obesity 4;5. Obesity as a risk factor for cancer is studied extensively, because of the possibility of modifying this risk factor. However, the question arises whether obesity, determined by a single measurement of weight (and height) at a certain moment (weight and BMI), is really a good measure of adiposity. Firstly, adiposity is the presence of adipose tissue, and weight and BMI might not reflect this correctly. People can have the same weight or BMI, but have differences in amount of adipose tissue. Weight gain during adulthood reflects an increase in adipose tissue, and is probably a much better measure adiposity. Secondly, when measuring obesity at one point of time, the influence of long-term weight patterns during life cannot be taken into account. When measuring weight gain during life, periods of sensitivity to adiposity can be studied. Weight change patterns and time periods of different biological relevance can then be identified6;7. Taken together, weight gain is an interesting and appropriate measure to study adiposity in relation to cancer risk. The World Cancer Research Fund project (2007) already suggested a probable association with post menopausal breast cancer8. In this review we will give an overview of studies determining the association of cancer risk and weight gain. We will determine the cancers where a possible association with weight change is suggested by the biological mechanism, and where at least two studies are addressed to the subject. The cancers we will discuss are the hormone-related cancers (breast cancer, ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer and prostate cancer) and colorectal cancer. Furthermore, we will include (new) studies, not taken into account in the World Cancer Research Fund project (2007)3. With this review, we aim to further elucidate the relation of cancer risk and weight change. When knowing more about weight change as a risk factor, advice can be given with regard to weight change during life. This knowledge can be incorporated in public health guidelines for cancer prevention. Materials and Methods For our study selection we selected all publications of original studies concerning the relation between weight change and cancer risk. Up to Augustus 2008 we searched the electronic database of PUBMED (MEDLINE) for potential relevant studies. The following free text keywords were used: ‘cancer risk’, ‘weight change’, ‘cancer’, ‘weight gain’ in combinations. We selected studies that were published after 1990, and could be purchased through PUBMED. Only the cancers types were more than two publications have been addressed to the relation with weight gain were included in the current review leading to the exclusion of lung cancer, thyroid cancer, renal cell carcinoma and oesophagus cancer. The cancers discussed are the hormone-related cancers (breast cancer, ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer and prostate cancer) and colorectal cancer. Criteria for inclusion of the studies were that they were written in English, to contain information about how the exposure variable (weight gain) was assessed and that they considered cancer morbidity or mortality as an outcome. With this criteria, we included 57 studies for our review (breast cancer, 28; ovarian cancer, 6; endometrial cancer; 5, prostate cancer; 7, colorectal cancer; 4, all cancer/several separate cancers; 6) . Note that weight loss in relation to cancer risk is not taken into account in this present review. Results Weight gain and cancer risk Many studies have been performed determining the association between weight gain and cancer risk. The majority of the studies focus on the relation of breast cancer and weight gain. Only few studies determined the relation between ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer, prostate cancer and colorectal cancer, and weight change. In this review, the studies differ extensively between each other, so we will list some of the major differences between studies. Firstly, we will discuss the different cancer sites and their relation to weight gain separately. This is because associations between weight gain and different cancer types might differ. Secondly, differences in time in which the weight gain has occurred will be taken into account. Weight gain during different time periods might have different effects on the association with cancer risk. Most studies performed so far, only investigated weight gain during adult life; i.e. from around age 20 to the age at study entry. Some other studies also determine short-term weight gain or weight gain during a specific period of life. Lastly, the way the weight change information is assessed, also differs between the studies. Most studies gathered the information retrospectively, which might be a source of extensive recall bias. Only a few studies assessed the weight gain prospectively. Total cancers Most studies addressing weight change in relation to cancer risk, only use one type of cancer as an outcome. Six studies also addressed “all cancer” morbidity or mortality. This were all cohort studies, of which four studies assessed weight gain prospectively. The two studies9;10 which assessed weight change retrospectively, both report only cancer mortality and found an increased risk in cancer mortality in relation to adult weight gain (resp. RR 2.44; CI 95% 1.71–3.46, p-trend <0.001 and RR 1.5; CI 95% 1.1–1.9, p-trend 0.009). The other four studies11-14 assessed the weight gain prospectively, and focussed on short term weight gain (1-16 years). In contrast, these studies did not find any increased risk for cancer mortality11;12 or morbidity13;14 (see Table 1). Breast Cancer Breast cancer and long-term adult weight gain Breast cancer is the most prevalent hormonal cancer in women15. Far out the most studied cancer in relation to weight change, is breast cancer 13;16-43. All these studies assessed weight change retrospectively, except one13. This study determined the relation of breast cancer with short-term weight change and considered other cancers as an outcome. Furthermore, most studies only considered post-menopausal breast cancer as an outcome16;18;20;23;27-30;35;40-43, probably because previous evidence showed no association between pre-menopausal breast cancer and obesity3. Far out the most used measure of weight change is long-term adult weight gain. The majority of the cohort studies addressing the subject of post-menopausal breast cancer and adult weight gain, found an increased risk for post-menopausal breast cancer16;18;20;26;27;29;42;43. The increased relative risks for post-menopausal breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain vary extensively between the studies (see Table 2). In addition, Morimoto et al. 29 also stratified by age of diagnosis in their analysis. Also for post-menopausal breast cancer diagnosed in younger women (between the ages 50 and 69), an increased risk in relation to adult weight gain was reported (age 50-59: RR 2.50; CI 95% 0.71–8.74, p-trend 0.007 and age 60-69: RR 4.42; CI 95% 1.35–14.44, p-trend 0.001). However, when the age of diagnosis of post-menopausal breast cancer was between 70 and 79, no increased risk was reported anymore (RR 0.81; CI 95% 0.33–1.96, p-trend 0.99). Several cohort studies which found a positive association of adult weight gain and post-menopausal breast cancer, also stratified on HRT use. These studies only found the increased risk in non-HRT users16;18;20;27;29. Feigelson et al.43 investigated the effect of adult weight gain in women who never used HRT. In this study, they investigated on the risk of different types, histology’s (receptor status), localizations and grades of post-menopausal breast cancer. The authors reported an increased post-menopausal breast cancer risk in relation to adult weight gain, for all different histology types of breast cancer, except for estrogen or progesterone receptor negative breast cancers and breast cancers which were negative for both receptors (see Table 2). Only one cohort study addressing the relation between post-menopausal breast cancer and adult weight gain, did not find an significant increased risk for post-menopausal breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain. Van den Brandt et al.44 found inconsistent increases in risk, with no significant trends (see Table 2). Pre-menopausal breast cancer risk in relation to adult weight was investigated only sporadically and just one cohort study was addressed to this subject. Lahman et al.27 did not find any risk for pre-menopausal breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain (see Table 2). Besides cohort studies, also many case-control studies have been performed determining the relation between breast cancer risk and adult weight change17;19;21;22;24;25;28;3034;36-38;45 . Results of the case-control studies are less consistent, however, most case-control studies again showed an increased risk for post-menopausal breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain21;22;24;28;31-33;37;38. Hirose et al.24 stratified on age of diagnosis and did not see any increased risk for the ages of diagnosis 30-39, 40-49 and 50-59. However, when the diagnosis was over age 60 (post-menopausal breast cancer), an increased risk was seen for breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain (RR 2.11; CI 95% >1, p-trend < 0.001). Rosenberg et al.30 showed an increased risk for both estrogen and progesterone receptor positive postmenopausal breast cancers but not for receptor negative post-menopausal breast cancers. Likewise, Han et al. 22reported an increased risk for the estrogen or progesterone positive breast cancer only. Several of the case-control studies also stratified on menopausal status in their analysis21;22;24;31-33;37;38. The majority of these studies found an increased risk for postmenopausal breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain, whereas no relation was seen for pre-menopausal21;22;24;28;31-33;37;38. Ziegler et al. 41 included women of age 20 to 55 in their study. They stratified on age of diagnosis in their analysis. Only for breast cancers diagnosed over age 50, an increased risk was shown in relation to adult weight gain (RR 1.63; CI 95%0.72-3.71, p-trend 0.04). Again they did not report an increased risk for breast cancer diagnosed between the ages 30 and 50 (presumably pre-menopausal breast cancer) (age 3040: RR 0.77; CI 95% 0.32-1.89, p-trend 0.43 and age 40-50: RR 1.35; CI 95% 0.65-2.82, ptrend 0.43). In addition, Verla-Tebit et al.36 also did not found an changed risk of premenopausal breast cancer in relation to weight gain. Even more, Coates et al. 17 showed a decreased risk for breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain in young women (less than 44 years of age at diagnosis of breast cancer). When stratifying on tumor grade, the decrease in risk was restricted to early stage, lower grade breast cancer types (see Table 2). One of the case-control studies addressing the subject of breast cancer and adult weight change did not distinguish between pre- and post-menopausal breast cancer19. This study reported an increased risk for breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain. Kotsopolous et al.25 included only women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation and reported no increased risk for breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain overall and also when stratifying on age of diagnosis (age of diagnosis between 30 and 39 or age of diagnosis over 40)). Almost all the studies investigating both pre-menopausal breast cancer risk and postmenopausal breast cancer risk, found an difference in risk for both types. So did Wenten et al.37 and Slattery et al. 32, however they reported that an increased risk for breast cancer in relation to weight gain was independent of menopausal status for Hispanics. Breast cancer and periods of weight gain Next to determining adult weight change, it is interesting to determine time periods or patterns of weight gain which might have different biological relevance. Several cohort and case-control studies addressing weight change in relation to breast cancer risk, also took into account different weight change periods throughout life 16;18;19;22;23;29. Ahn et al.16 divided the weight gain during adult hood in different periods of time. Weight gain in the early reproductive years (18-35 years of age), weight gain in the late reproductive years (35-50 years of age) and weight gain during the peri- and post menopausal time (50 years to current age) all resulted in an increased risk for post-menopausal status in non-HRT users only (relative risk of resp. 1.89 (1.11-3.22), 2.29 (1.51-3.46), 1.89, (1.20 – 2.79) for 30 to 39.9 kg of weight gain, versus stable weight (-1.9 – 1.9 kg)). Likewise, Han et al.22 divided weight gain throughout life in ten-year intervals. An increased risk of postmenopausal breast cancer was associated with weight gain in the age intervals 30–39 (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.14– 2.59), 40–49 (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.17–3.15) and 60–69 (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.21–3.10). After adjustment for total adult weight gain (20 years of age to current age), odds ratio’s were attenuated. On the other hand, Eng et al.19 did not found an increased risk for postmenopausal breast cancer in relation to weight gain during the age period 20 to 30 years of age. Nevertheless, they reported that women who gained more than 11 kg during the peri- and post-menopausal years experienced a 1.62 times higher risk than women whose weight remained unchanged. Similarly, Eliassen et al.18 showed that women who gained more than 10 kg of weight after menopause compared with weight maintenance, were at increased risk for post-menopausal breast cancer (RR. 1.18; 95% CI, 1.03-1.35). In addition, Morimoto et al. 29 showed a non-significant increased risk for women with postmenopausal weight gain (see Table 2). Harvie et al. 23 investigated different weight change patterns and their influence on post-menopausal breast cancer risk. The most frequent observed pattern of weight change over time was a consistent increase, and these women were observed to have the highest rates of post-menopausal breast cancer compared to other patterns of weight change. Weight gain from age 30 to age 50 followed by weight loss, was related to a lower risk. Also women who gained weight from age 18 to 30, but lost weight from age 30 to the menopause, experienced risk reductions. The lowest risk groups were women who maintained or lost weight during these three age intervals (see Table 2). Breast cancer and short-term weight gain Furthermore, only one study assessed the effect of short-term weight change on the risk of breast cancer. Rapp et al. 13 determined weight gain during an average period of 6.9 years prospectively. No changed risk was seen for breast cancer in relation to short –term weight gain (RR 0.87; CI 95% 0.61–1.24, p-trend 0.63). Rapp et al. 13 did not stratify on menopausal status and did not adjust for specific confounders of breast cancer such as parity and family history of breast cancer (see Table 2). Ovarian cancer Ovarian cancer and long-term adult weight gain Only a few studies have been addressed to the relation of ovarian cancer and adult weight gain46-51 . Four of these studies, one case-cohort study51, and three case control studies48-50, did not find any significant change in risk in relation to adult weight gain. The only cohort study 46 addressed to this subject found a decreased risk of ovarian cancer in relation to adult weight gain (RR 0.61; 95% CI 0.40-0.95, p-trend 0.006). However, after using a two-year time lag the risk attenuated (RR 0.63; 95% CI, 0.40-1.01, p-trend 0.02). On the other hand, Greer et al.47 conducted a case-control study, and found an increased risk for ovarian cancer in relation to adult weight gain (OR 1.38; 95% CI, 1.04-1.85, p-trend 0.11). When stratifying for parity, they only found an increased risk for the nulliparous women (OR 3.73; CI 95%,1.88-7.42, p-trend 0.001), but not for the parous women (OR 1.09; CI 95%, 0.78-1.51, p-trend 0.99) (see Table 3). Ovarian cancer and short-term weight gain One study prospectively assessed the effect of short-term weight change on the risk of ovarian cancer. Rapp et al. 13 reported an increased risk for ovarian cancer in relation to 7 year period of weight gain (RR 2.48; CI 95% 1.05-5.85, p-trend 0.03). This study did not adjust for specific confounders of ovarian cancer such as oral contraceptive use and parity (see Table 3). Endometrial cancer Endometrial cancer and long-term adult weight gain Five studies investigated the relation of endometrial cancer and adult weight gain 52-56. Four of these studies, one cohort53, one case-cohort46 and two case-control studies54;56, found an increased risk for endometrial cancer in relation to adult weight change. Though, Terry et al.53, who conducted the cohort study, found an increase in risk when they adjusted for weight at age 25 (RR 2.1; CI 95%, 1.3–4.71). However, when they corrected in their analysis for weight at the moment of enrolment in the study, this effect disappeared (RR 1.0; CI 95%, 0.5– 2.0). Of the other studies which found an increased risk, two studies corrected for weight or BMI at age 2052;56 and one study corrected for recent BMI54. Xu at al.56 stratified on menopausal status in their analysis. For both groups they found an increased risk (premenopausal women (OR 2.8; CI 95 %,1.4–5.7), post-menopausal women (OR 3.1; CI 95%, 1.8–5.5)). On the other hand, Weiderpass et al.55 conducted a case-control study and did not find a significant increased risk (OR 1.4; CI 95%, 0.8-2.3) (see Table 4). Endometrial cancer and periods of weight gain Xu at al.56 also investigated weight gain during several different periods of time throughout life. For pre-menopausal women they determined weight gain during the periods between age 20 to 30 and 30 to 40. For both periods they found increased risks for premenopausal breast cancer (resp. RR 1.7; CI 95% 1.1–2.6, p-trend < 0.01 and RR 1.9; CI 95 % 1.2–3.1, p-trend < 0.01). For postmenopausal women they assessed weight gain during the periods between age 20 to 30, 30 to 40, 40 to 50 and 50 to 60. Again they found increased risks for also post-menopausal endometrial cancer (resp. RR 1.4; CI 95% 1.0–2.0, p-trend < 0.06 and RR 1.6; CI 95 % 1.1–2.3, p-trend < 0.01 and RR 2.0; CI 95% 1.3–2.9, p-trend < 0.01 and RR 1.6; CI 95 % 1.0–2.6, p-trend < 0.01). Thus, no different effects for different weight gain periods throughout life in relation to endometrial cancer risk were reported (see Table 4). Endometrial cancer and short-term weight gain One study assessed the effect of short-term weight change on the risk of endometrial cancer. Rapp et al.13 reported no risk change for endometrial cancer in relation to 7 years weight gain (RR 0.72; CI 95% 0.33-1.57, p-trend 0.23). This study did not adjust for specific confounders for endometrial cancer in their analysis, such oral contraceptive use and parity (see Table 4). Prostate cancer Prostate cancer and long-term adult weight change In older men, prostate cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers57. A total of seven large studies have been conducted in the relationship between adult weight change and prostate cancer risk58-64. All studies did not find significant changes in risk of prostate cancer in relation to adult weight gain58-64. Although, a decreased risk of prostate cancer was found in two sub-analysis of two studies61,64. Littman et al.61 divided the outcome in aggressive and non-aggressive prostate cancers and showed a decreased risk for the non-aggressive prostate cancers only (non-aggressive prostate cancers (RR 0.67; CI 95 %, 0.47- 0.95, p-trend 0.04), aggressive prostate cancers. (RR 0.94; CI95 %, 0.61-1.5, p-trend 0.92). On the other hand, Wright et al.64 found an increased risk of prostate cancer mortality (OR 2.98, CI 95%, 0.99– 9.04, p-trend 0.009), but did not find any effect prostate cancer morbidity (see Table 5). Prostate cancer and periods of weight change One of the studies 58 addressed to the subject of weight change and prostate cancer risk, investigated next to long-term adult weight gain, weight gain between age 50 and the current age in men of 65 and older. Cerhan et al.58 did not find any change in risk for prostate cancer in relation to the adult weight gain (RR 0.7; CI 95% 0.4-1.4, p-trend 0.3), however, they found an increase in risk for prostate cancer in relation to the weight gain from age 50 to current age (RR 1.3; CI 95% 0.7-2.2, p-trend 0.04) (see Table 5). Prostate cancer and short-term weight change Three prospective cohort studies investigated the relation of short-term weight gain and prostate cancer risk. Rodriguez et al.62 determined weight gain during the last ten years and reported no risk for overall prostate cancer (RR 0.89, CI 95%, 0.79-1.00), as well for nonaggressive, aggressive, Stage D or fatal cases of prostate cancer (resp. RR 0.89; CI 95%, 0.78-1.02, RR 0.88; CI 95%, 0.71-1.08 and RR 0.97 ; CI 95%, 0.71-1.33). Likewise, Samanic et al.14 observed no risk for prostate cancer in relation to 6 year weight gain (RR 0.75; CI 95% 0.49-1.15, p-trend >0.5). Oppositely, Rapp et al.13 also determined weight gain over an average period of 6.9 years, and reported a decreased risk for prostate cancer in relation to short-term weight gain (RR 0.43; CI95% 0.24-0.76, p-trend 0.05)13. Samanic et al.14 and Rapp et al. 13 both did not adjust for specific confounders for prostate cancer in their analysis, such as family history of prostate cancer (see Table 5). Colorectal cancer Colorectal cancer and long-term adult weight change Colorectal cancer was only investigated four times in relation to adult weight gain65-68. In addition, two studies have been performed investigating the relation of adult weight gain and adenomas69;70. Adenomas are precursor lesions for the majority of invasive colon cancers. Tamakoshi et al.66 conducted a cohort study among men and women, and considered colon cancer mortality as outcome. For women, they only included females who where lean at begin adulthood (BMI < 22) and found an increased risk for colorectal cancer in relation to adult weight gain (RR 3.41; CI 95%, 1.29–9.02), however, for men a decrease of risk was reported (RR 0.62, CI 95%, 0.08–4.61). Russo et al.65 also included men and women in their casecontrol study and found a for both sexes a decrease in risk for colorectal cancer in relation to long-term weight gain (men (OR 0.75, CI 95%, 0.63–0.88, p-trend <0.001), women , (OR 0.66 CI 95%, 0.54–0.80, p-trend <0.001)). However, they only took into account weight gain from age 30 years or 50 years to current age, and not total adult weight gain from age 20 to baseline. Furthermore, Trentham-Dietz et al68 performed a case-control study with only female participants, and found an increased risk for all large bowel cancers in relation to adult weight gain. When stratifying on different locations of the bowel, the increased risk was only still present for colon- and left colon cancers, but not for rectal cancer and right colon cancer. Also Thygesen et al.67 determined adult weight gain in relation to colorectal cancer in a cohort study, but did not find any changed risk (resp. RR 1.41; CI 95%, 0.83–2.41) (see Table 6). Colorectal cancer and short-term weight change Three prospective cohort studies were conducted addressing short-term weight change in relation to colorectal cancer risk. Thygesen et al. 67 used combined data on weight change between two consecutive questionnaires (weight change 1986–1988) in relation to the risk over the next 2 years (colon cancer risk 1988–1990). They did a risk for colon cancer in relation to short-time weight gain (RR 1.46, CI 95%, 0.86–2.50). Rapp et al.13 and Samanic et al.14 investigated weight gain over an average period of respectively 6.9 and 6 years and did not find a risk for colon cancer in relation to weight change. Rapp et al.13 stratified on sex, but found no increased risk for both men and women. Samanic et al.14 only used male participants in their study (see Table 6). Discussion In our review we discussed studies addressing the relation of weight gain and cancer risk. Weight gain reflects an increase in adipose tissue, and is probably a much better measure for adiposity than weight and BMI measured at a single moment in time. For most cancer types, studies give inconsistent results about their relation with weight gain and often only a small number of good studies have been performed. Whereas, for breast cancer it is clear weight gain increases the risk of post-menopausal breast cancer, but not pre-menopausal breast cancer. This increase in risk of post-menopausal breast cancer in relation to weight gain is only present in non-HRT users. Many hypothesis have been made understanding the relation between weight gain (adiposity) and cancer. The link is thought to be mediated by the metabolic and endocrine effects of adipose tissue. It is suggested that chronic hyper insulinemia plays an important role. Chronic hyper insulemenia and insulin resistance (consequence of chronic hyper insulemenia) are probably caused by increased release of free fatty acids, resistin, tumour necrosis factor-a and on the other hand decreased release of adiponectin, caused by excess body weight. This chronic hyper insulemenia is thought to contribute to tumour development via several pathways. These pathways are shown in figure 1. It should be mentioned that because of the differences in etiology of the different types of cancer, for each type different underlying mechanisms/pathways might be important in relation to weight gain. In addition, not much is still known about these pathways, but they are thought to be highly mediated by enhanced levels of cytokines and adipokines through the excess adipose tissue, which can lead to subclinical inflammatory states and via this increase tumour development4-6. Discussing all the pathways goes beyond the scope of this review. Here we will discuss only the hormonal pathway since the majority of cancers discussed in relation to weight gain in this review were hormonal cancers. Enhanced hormone secretion caused by excess body weight seems to be one of the major factors which might influence increased hormonal cancer risk in relation to adiposity. Excess adipose tissue enhances the synthesis and bioavailability of many hormones (such as estrogens and androgens) via several different ways. Adipose tissue produces enzymes, which stimulate the formation of estrogens from androgenic precursors. Also insulin lowers concentrations of certain hormone-binding globulin, which have a high binding affinity for hormones. This results in an increase in the bio availability of estrogens. Also high insulin concentrations increase the synthesis of androgens by the ovaries and also the adrenal gland. Moreover, hormones are known to play a role in regulating cell differentiation, proliferation and apoptosis. This might increase the risk of cancer in tissues that are sensitive to hormones 4-6;71. Figure 1. Proposed biological mechanisms linking adiposity with cancer. Abbreviation used in the figure; GH = growth hormone, IGF = insulin-like growth factor, IGFBP = insulinlike growth factor binding protein, GHBP = growth hormone binding protein, NF-kB = nuclear factor kB, IKKb = IkB kinase ß, PPARs = peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors, FFA = free fatty acids, TNFa = tumor necrosis factor. Figure from article of Renehan et al. 5 , adjusted by A.J. van den Broek. Many epidemiological studies have been conducted providing more evidence for the presence of an association between cancer and adiposity. In this review we discussed epidemiological studies addressing the subject of cancer risk and weight gain. The studies investigating the relation of weight gain and cancer risk differ extensively between each other. The study design is an important difference. Both cohort studies and case-control studies have been discussed in this review. In a cohort study a sufficient followup time is needed to gather enough cases for your analysis, certainly when the cancer is rare. Moreover, the completeness of the follow-up should also be taken into account. The size of the study is of course important. Larger studies can more easily detect little effects, with smaller confidence intervals. The quintiles of weight gain used differ between the studies. Some studies only use small changes of weight gain, while others compare large differences. This can affect the comparing of different studies. Also the time period over which the weight gain occured differ between the studies. Most studies look at long-term adult weight gain (over 30 years), however, some studies look at short-term weight gain of maximum 20 years. If both time periods of weight gain have the same effect on cancer risk can be discussed. It should be taken into account that weight change patterns throughout whole life might have an effect on the relation of the short-term weight gain and cancer formation, however, short-term weight gain might be more interesting regarding advice for public health. The way the weight gain is assessed differ extensively between all the studies. Most of the studies discussed in this review asses the weight gain retrospectively (i.e. recalled weight at age 20). The majority of this retrospective studies investigate only long-term adult weight gain in relation to cancer. Although validation studies72;73 have been conducted showing that recalling weight in earlier life is a appropriate way to assess the weight gain, it still might be a source of recall bias. Only a few studies assessed the weight gain prospectively11-14;62;67, but these studies only look at short term weight gain. Furthermore, it should be noted that confounding is an important subject for these studies. Which confounders should be adjusted for is dependent on the investigated cancer. Due to lack of information, some studies might not adjust for all the potential confounders. Also an important confounder in weight gain and cancer research, independent of the type of cancer, is the potential of a different effect of weight gain in lean women and in more heavy women. Adjusting for weight at the start of the weight gain period should be considered because this reflects differences in start weight of participants, however, some studies might adjust for weight at the end of follow-up. We will not discuss all these aspects for every study, but we will look at the overall reliability of the epidemiological evidence. In this review we discussed the results for each cancer type separately, because of different relations between specific type of cancers and adiposity. However, some studies looked at several cancer types together. Total cancers All cancer mortality in relation to adult weight gain was only investigated in two studies9;10 which assessed the adult weight gain retrospectively. These studies showed a clear significant increased risk, however, both studies are potential sources of bias because of recalling of the weight gain. The studies were of large size, had sufficient cases in their analysis and a long follow-up (median follow-up of 24 years and 17 years). However , they only included young women in their study. In addition, four other studies11-14 addressing the subject of weight gain and cancer morbidity or mortality, did not find any increased risk. These studies had less potential for recall bias because of prospective weight gain assessment. It should be mentioned these studies only investigated short term weight gain, which might have other effects than adult weight gain. Jeffreys et al.11 looked at weight change over a period of 16 years and had a follow-up of 35 years, but included only a small number of subjects. Maru et al.12 only investigated weight gain over one year, which might be too short to eliminate influences of weight change patterns during life. Rapp et al.13 and Samanic et al.14, both large studies with long follow-up periods (resp. median follow-up of 8 years and 28 years), looked at weight gain over about six years. Because of the selected study populations and differences in weight change periods it is hard making any conclusions about weight gain in relation to cancer risk. Furthermore, these studies take all cancer types together, though, all cancers might have different biological mechanisms underlying their associations with risk factors4;5. Some cancers can be affected by weight gain, however, others might not. In addition, adjustment for specific confounders for separate cancers in these analysis is often not done. In conclusion, it might be more appropriate to separate the different cancers for the investigation of the effect of weight gain on cancer risk. Pre- and post-menopausal breast cancer Breast cancer is the most studied cancer in relation to weight gain. All the studies investigating adult weight gain as the exposure in relation to breast cancer, assessed the weight gain retrospectively. so were sensitive for recall bias. Post-menopausal was studied the most in relation to adult weight gain. An increased risk was found for post-menopausal breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain in almost all cohort studies16;18;20;26;27;29;42;43. These were all large studies, with a long follow-up period. Only one cohort study did not find an increased risk. Van den Brandt et al.35 analyzed their data with a case-cohort approach, so was much smaller than the other cohort studies. In addition, also most case-control studies showed an increased risk for post-menopausal breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain21;22;24;28;31-33;37;38. Almost all these studies included a of large number cases and controls. Unfortunately, no studies have been conducted in the relationship between weight gain and post-menopausal breast cancer risk which asses the weight gain prospectively. These studies will give more reliable results, because of the exclusion of the recall bias present in the studies discussed here. Although, still there seems to be enough evidence supporting a relation between weight gain and post-menopausal breast cancer risk. This has been shown in a large number of studies with consistent results. This relationship of post-menopausal breast cancer and weight gain might also be explained by an underlying biological mechanism. After menopause, adipose tissue is the major source for the synthesis of estrogens (from androgenic precursors); hormone levels are enhanced by excess adipose tissue74;75. Keys et al.76 performed a pooled analysis of nine studies. They showed that the risk of breast cancer increases in post-menopausal women in with higher concentrations of circulating hormones. Another study also investigating this, reported the same observations77. Also other mechanisms are suggested (see figure 1), however, the hormonal mechanism is most supported. Previous evidence showed no association between pre-menopausal breast cancer and obesity3. This might be explained by different effects of hormones pre- and post-menopausal. However, the relation of adiposity and pre-menopausal breast cancer is not fully understood. There is some evidence that pre-menopausal women with excess body weight have more irregular and an-ovulatory menstrual cycles and because of that they a have decreased exposure to estrogens and progesterone78. It should be taken into account that exclusion of women with reported irregular menses and/or infertility did change the lack of association between adult BMI and premenopausal breast cancer risk79. Similar to the studies addressing obesity and pre-menopausal breast cancer3, all casecontrol studies we discussed in this review that were addressed to the relation of weight gain and pre-menopausal breast cancer risk did not find any increased risk21;22;24;28;31-33;37;38. Most case-control studies again had a sufficient number of cases and controls included. Only one cohort study27 was addressed to this subject. This study was large, and had a sufficient (5.8 years) time of follow-up to included enough cases. Even more, Coates et al. 17conducted a large case-control study which included over 1500 cases and found an decreased risk for premenopausal breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain. Again no study has been conducted on the relationship between weight gain and pre-menopausal breast cancer risk which assessed the weight gain prospectively. The only study which assessed the weight gain prospectively in relation to breast cancer, was a cohort study13 which did not distinguish between pre- and post-menopausal breast cancer. Rapp et al. 13 did not find any change in risk. It should be noted that it was a large study with 8 years of follow-up. They determined weight gain over an period of 7 years, which might have another effect than long-term adult weight gain on the breast cancer risk. Also, they did not adjust for specific confounders such as parity and age at menarche probably because of lack of information, however adjustment for this confounders is important when investigating breast cancer as the outcome. Because of the many studies which investigated the relation of breast cancer and weight gain, it seems that different conclusions can be made about post- and pre- menopausal breast cancer in relation to weight gain. Post-menopausal breast cancer risk is increased, however there is no change in pre-menopausal breast cancer risk in relation to weight gain. Although many studies which investigated these relations were well performed, only one study assessed the weight gain prospectively but did not distinguish between pre- and post-menopausal breast cancer. To even more support the evidence of the relations between breast cancer and weight gain, more prospective studies should be done. Only a small number of studies determined specific periods of weight gain throughout life16;18;19;22;23;29, like peri-menopausal weight gain. No differences were seen in the studies between specific periods. This might be due to the fact that stratification on weight gain periods leads to smaller subgroups for the analyses. As a results, no conclusion can be drawn about periods with more sensitivity for weight gain. Larger studies with better specified periods of weight gain should be done to elucidate the different effects of specific periods of weight gain. Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) has already been linked to post-menopausal breast through its influence on hormone levels. The underlying mechanism of the relation of adiposity and breast cancer is thought to be mediated by hormones76;77. Different effects of post-menonopausal breast cancer risk in relation to weight gain in HRT users and HRT nonusers, may be due to the higher estrogen levels from hormone replacement therapy than those derived from adipose tissue in overweight women. This is the reason why many studies addressing post-menopausal breast cancer and adult weight gain stratified on HRT (possible effect modifier). Most of the studies taking HRT into account, were large cohort studies with a long follow-up. All these studies found and increased risk of post-menopausal breast cancer in relation to adult weight gain only in women who never used HRT16;18;20;27;29.This difference in risk for post-menopausal breast cancer between HRT users and nonusers, can be explained by the fact that current HRT use increases estrogen levels circulating in the blood. The use of HRT may obscure the effect of adiposity (weight gain) on post-menopausal breast cancer80. Three studies22;30;43 , one cohort and two case-control studies, also investigated postmenopausal breast cancer with respect to receptor status. All three studies showed an increased risk for post- menopausal breast cancer with both the estrogen and progesterone receptor positive, in relation to adult weight gain, but not for the estrogen or progesterone receptor negative breast cancers and breast cancers which were negative for both receptors. Furthermore, Han et al. 22 reported an increased risk for estrogen or progesterone positive post-menopausal breast cancer. Although the stronger associations for receptor positive post- menopausal with weight gain can be supported by the suggested hormonal mechanism of the relation of post-menopausal breast cancer and adiposity 74;75, it is hard to draw any conclusions out of only three studies. Certainly when taking into account the small numbers in the subgroups of different types of tumors. In the future studies should pay attention to the size of the subgroups of the studies when looking at specific sub types of cancers, because often these groups are too small to detect any changes. Ovarian cancer Ovarian cancer in relation to weight gain was investigated in seven studies13;46-51. Six of these studies assessed weight gain retrospectively, and investigated long-term adult weight gain46-51. Four of these studies, of which three case-control studies, found no risk for ovarian cancer in relation to adult weight gain 48-51. The other three studies found controversial results13;46;47. The only cohort study46, consisted out of 249 cases with 20 years of follow-up, reported a decreased risk. Greer et al.47 conducted a case-control study with over 700 cases, and found an increased risk for ovarian cancer in relation to adult weight gain . The only study which did assesed the weight gain prospectively found a significant increased risk for ovarian cancer in relation to weight gain over a period of 7 years. However, in this study only 53 ovarian cancer cases occurred over a follow-up of 8 years, and they did not adjust for specific confounders for ovarian cancer, probable because of lack of information, which makes the results less reliable. Because differences in study design and the controversial results, it is hard to make any conclusions about the risk of ovarian cancer risk in relation to weight gain. However, an underlying biological mechanism between ovarian cancer and adiposity suggest an association. Also for ovarian cancer the hormonal mechanism is believed to be involved in the etiology of ovarian cancer in relation to adiposity81. To further elucidate the relation between ovarian cancer and weight gain, more studies should be done, preferable with prospectively assessed weight gain. Endometrial cancer Endometrial cancer in relation to adult weight change was also investigated only in a few studies 13;52-56, of which only one was conducted prospectively 13. Most of these studies, found an increased risk for endometrial cancer in relation to adult weight gain. This studies consisted of one cohort53 study which included only twins, had a follow-up period of more than 20 years and was very large. In this study the increase in risk was only present when adjusting for weight at current age in the analysis, not when adjusting for weight at age 25. Moreover, there was no consistency in adjustment for confounders in the studies. Some studies corrected for weight at the start of the weight gain period, but some studies adjusted for weight at baseline (current weight). Which is the appropriate adjustment is hard, however it seems to be important to adjust for weight at the start of the weight gain period because of elimination of the effect of the differences of weight at the start. However, it is surprising such big difference is shown by Terry et al. 53 between both adjustments. In addition, this study only adjusted for the confounder age next to the weight adjustment, however, more confounders are considered to be important in the relation between weight gain and endometrial cancer risk. The only study55 which did not reported any increased risk for endometrial cancer in relation to adult weight gain was a case-control study which only included post-menopausal women. Although, another other study56 which stratified on menopausal status, found for both pre- and post-menopausal endometrial cancer and increased risk. Furthermore, oone study 13 assessed weight gain prospectively. They found no risk for ovarian cancer in relation to short-term weight gain over 7 years. Although the study included 100 cases over a follow-up period of 8 years, they did not adjust for specific confounders of endometrial cancer such as oral contraceptive use and parity. The differences in results of the short-term weight gain and adult weight gain studies might be explained by a different effect of a short or long weight gain period on the endometrial cancer risk. Another study82 was conducted determining weight gain in relation with uterine leiyomatoma (diagnosed by hysterectomy), which is a non-malignant cancer precursor lesion of the endometrial. This study included pre-menopausal black women and found an increased risk for uterine leiyomatoma in relation to adult weight gain (retrospectively assessed) (RR 1.88; CI 1.113.05), and supports an association of endometrial cancer in relation to weight gain. In summary, most of the studies report an increased risk of endometrial cancer in relation to weight gain. Also, the underlying biological mechanisms suggest an association. Similar to ovarian cancer, a hormonal biological mechanism is suggested to cause an association between this cancer and adiposity83;84. However, the differences in study designs of the studies determining weight gain in relation to endometrial cancer make it hard to draw any conclusion. So, to support the evidence for an increased risk of endometrial cancer in relation to weight gain, more large prospective studies should be done. Prostate cancer Prostate cancer is one of the most prevalent cancer in men, certainly in older men57. Because prostate tissue is sensitive to hormones, it is often associated and studied in relation with obesity15. Circulating testosterone levels decrease as a result of excess body weight85. Testosterone is thought to contribute to the growth and progression of prostate cancer86. Other hypotheses that support relation of adiposity and prostate cancer include alterations in insulin and bio available circulating insulin-like growth factor I levels (see above). High circulating concentrations of IGF-I have been associated with higher risk of prostate cancer71;87;88. However, the exact mechanism of is still not understood. Also epidemiological studies investigated the relation of prostate cancer with weight gain to support an association. Most of the studies did not find any risk for prostate cancer in relation to weight gain58-64. These studies all assessed the adult weight gain retrospectively, however, most were of large size. Wright et al.64 included more than 5500 cases in their cohort study during a follow-up of 5 year. Both other cohort studies were smaller, although Littman et al.61 included more than 800 cases, but Cerhan et al.58 included only 45 cases. The study of Cerhan et al.58 was also one of the studies which found an trend of an increased risk for prostate cancer in relation to weight gain from age 50 to current age, but had only 69 cases in this sub-analysis, and included only men over 65 of age. Wright et al.64 found an increased risk for the mortality of prostate cancer, not for prostate cancer morbidity, but again included for the mortality analysis only 76 cases, though for the morbidity analysis 5594. Interesingly, studies investigating short-term weight gain reported an decreased risk for prostate cancer. Both cohort studies13;62 included a sufficient number of cases, and assessed the weight gain prospectively, which make it reliable. However, they did not adjust for specific prostate cancer confounders in their analysis, probably because of lack of information. In addition, Litmann et al. 61 reported also a decreased risk for non-aggressive prostate cancers, including more than 400 cases, and Schuurman et al.63 used the case-cohort approach, and found an decreased risk for both the subgroups well differentiated and poorly-differentiated prostate cancer, but not for moderately differentiated tumours. It should be noted that this analysis included around 200 cases, a much smaller groups than the other studies. Though, one large prospective cohort study14, with 28 years of follow-up and more than 1800 included cases, again found no change of risk but looked at a weight gain over six years. In summary, the results of the studies addressing weight gain in relation to prostate cancer are not consistent. Although some large prospective studies which studied short-term weight gain suggested a decreased risk, many other studies which look at long-term weight gain did not support this finding. The diversity in design of the studies make it hard to draw any conclusion, although a relation of prostate cancer and weight gain might be explained by an underlying mechanism. More large prospective studies looking at both long-term and short-term weight gain should be done to investigate the possible relation between prostate cancer and weight gain. Colorectal cancer The only non-hormonal cancer discussed in this review is colorectal cancer. The mechanism underlying the association of adiposity and colorectal cancer is mostly unclear. It is suggested it might involves direct effects of insulin (as a result of the chronic hyper insulenemia due to excess body weight) and increases of free/bio available IGF-15;71;89. Another mechanism might be increases in bile acids which might be toxic to the colon mucosa90;91. The epidemiological studies addressed to this subject, give controversial results. Most studies studied only men or women, or stratified for sexe in their analysis. Thygesen et al. 67 conducted a very large cohort study, and also assessed weight gain over 10 years prospectively, but did not stratify on sexe. This study67 did not report any change. In addition, three other studies did not find any change in risk. These were again two studies13;14 which assessed the weight gain prospectively. One of these studies included only a small number of cases13, however the other study14 included more than 900 cases and had a followup of over 28 years. A disadvantage of these two studies is that they did not adjust for this specific confounders of colorectal cancer in their analysis, probably due to lack of information. All the three studies13;14;67 which assessed the weight gain prospectively looked at short term weight gain over maximal 10 years, which might have a different effect on colorectal cancer risk compared to long-term adult weight gain. Four retrospective studies65-68 investigated the relation of adult weight gain and colorectal cancer. Tamakoshi et al.66 reported an increased risk for colorectal cancer in relation to adult weight gain only in women, but they had only included 34 cases in his cohort study. Trentham-Dietz et al.68 included only females in their large case-control study, and again found an increased risk for colorectal cancer. The other case-control study 65 reported for both women and men a decreased risk for colorectal cancer in relation to adult weight gain, and had about 2000 controls and 600 cases in their analysis, but looked at weight gain through a shorter period, between the ages of 30 and 50, which might have other effects than the long-term period of 18 years of age to age at enrolment of the study. Two other studies69;70, which were not discussed in the results, might be important answering questions about colorectal cancer and weight gain. These studies did not use colorectal cancer as the outcome, but precursor lesions of colorectal cancer; colon adenomas and colorectal polyps. Sedjo et al. 70 investigated the relation of 10-year weight gain on the risk of colon adenomas in a small prospective cohort study with 137 cases and a follow-up of two years. They found an increased risk for both males and females together. In contrast, the case-control study of Bird et al. 69 did not find any risk for colorectal polyps in relation to adult weight gain, but, on the other hand found again an increased risk for colorectal polyps in relation to short-term (ten year) weight gain. It was interesting Bird et al. 69 investigated both long-term and short-term weight gain, unfortunately, they did not asses the weight gain prospectively. In summary, the studies in colorectal cancer and weight gain did not report consistent results. Given the diversity in study design of the studies, it is hard to draw any conclusion about the relation of colorectal cancer and weight gain. Although some of the studies in the relation between colorectal cancer and weight gain were already done prospectively, the previous results indicate more evidence for a relation between weight gain and colorectal cancer should be generated by doing more large prospective studies investigating both short-term and long-term weight gain. Weight loss and cancer risk Weight loss, also important in this topic of research, but of course less important for public health given the recent problems with obesity, was not discussed in this review. This was because we decided to focus on weight gain, because most articles were addressed to this subject particular. However, some articles also took into account weight loss, but did not mention the intention of the loss. The intention of the loss is important, because unintentional weight loss can bias the results. One study of Parker et al.92, determined weight loss throughout life (age 18 to current age) in post-menopausal women in relation to many cancers. For intentional weight loss they found a decreased risk for all cancer incidence (RR 0.89; CI 95% 0.79–1.00), but not in relation to unintentional weight loss (RR 1.09; CI 95% 0.97–1.21). The same results were shown for post-menopausal breast cancer (intentional weight loss: RR 0.81 (0.66–1.00), unintentional weight loss: RR 1.16; CI 95% 0.97–1.39) but not for other cancers (colon and endometrial cancer). This again supports a relation for breast cancer and adiposity. For the other cancers no effect was shown, however, these groups of cases were much smaller than breast cancer cases. Although we did not discuss weight loss studies in this review, they can be taken into account when determining the relation between cancer and adiposity. Also weight loss reflects adiposity, and good studies can give valuable information. In conclusion, although many studies investigated the relation of breast cancer and weight gain, studies determining the risk of other cancers were only done sporadically. For these cancers, the results were often not consistent, and because of the diversity of the design of these studies it is hard to draw any conclusions. Larger and prospective cohort studies should be conducted, investigating both the effects of short-term and long-term weight gain on cancer risk. When looking at both short-term and long-term weight gain in one study, more can be said about the probable different relations with cancer. In addition, recalling information on body weight retrospectively will always give a lot of bias, so prospective studies will be more reliable. However, still only a few studies used a prospective method to assess the weight gain and only one study investigated both short-term and long-term weight gain together. Whereas, still there seems to be much evidence for a relationship between adult weight gain and an increased post-menopausal breast cancer risk (with the exception of current HRT users), and on the other hand no increased risk for pre-menopausal breast cancer. These relations can also be explained by the underlying hormonal mechanism of adiposity and breast cancer risk. Although, still only one prospective study have been conducted in the relation between breast cancer and weight gain, which did not distinguish between pre- and post-menopausal breast cancer. Unfortunate, because this studies will even more support the suggested relation. It is very important to elucidate the relation between cancer and weight gain because obesity is a growing problem. 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