Download 슬라이드 1 - Northeast Asia Economic Forum

Seventh Northeast Asia Economic Forum
2008. 10. 26-29
CHOI Tae-Hyun
Director for Energy & Recourses Policy Division
Ministry of Knowledge Economy
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Total Primary Energy Supply (2006)
TPES (MTOE) % of World Total
China
1,897
16%
Japan
528
4%
Korea
217
2%
DPRK
22
0%
Mongolia
3
0%
Total
2,667
23%
World
11,740
100%
Sources : IEA Key World Energy Statistics
2008
• Energy imports of NEA
– Oil: Japan(2), China (3), Korea(4)
– Natural Gas: Japan (2), Korea (9)
– Coal: Japan(1), Korea (2), China (6)
Rapid Increase of TPES
In Korea, Japan, China
Unit : M.
TOE
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
China
Japan
Korea
1990
2004
2015
Sources : KEEI, IEA
2030
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Abundant Resources in Russia and Mongolia(2007)
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Coal (Mongolia)
Proved Reserve
79.5 B. barrel
47.65 TCM
157 B. ton
22.3 B. ton
Share
6.60%
26.30%
17.30%
2.50%
R/P ratio
22.3
77.8
Over 500 Y.
2871
Sources : BP, Country Report of Mongolia
Energy
Oil
Natural
Coal
Gas
Production
in
NEA
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Sources : IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2008
 Opportunities for improvement of energy security in NEA
Improving energy supply conditions
Producers: to promote energy resources development and have stable
consumers
Consumers: to diversify import sources and have better emergency
preparedness by reducing vulnerability to external shock
Reducing energy demand to face global climate change
NEA has significant potential to reduce energy demand and CO2
To improve energy conservation and efficiency
To increase new & renewable energy use
Promoting rational energy use by market based energy system
To promote efficient, transparent energy market: balance energy
demand and supply by market forces, such as price signal
Reducing political tension and enhance regional stability
Energy cooperation can lead to mitigation of political tension in the
region, and feed back into further energy cooperation
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 Opportunities for improvement of energy security in the world
Energy supply
Bringing additional sources of energy from Eastern part of Russia and
Mongolia: PNG, LNG, Oil, Coal
Rational and efficient use of energy resources
Reducing world energy consumption by promoting energy
conservation and efficiency in countries in NEA
Strengthening energy governance
Climate change
NEA has a significant potential for reduction of CO2 emission
CO2 Outlook of Countries in NEA
Sources: KEEI,
Country Report on
Energy Outlook in
Northeast Asia (2007)
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 Project Cooperation
Development of energy resource & establishment of cross-border
transportation network
Oil and oil pipeline (ESPO)
Natural gas and pipeline (UGSS)
Coal and coal transportation infra
Power grid interconnection
 Policy cooperation
Establishment of bilateral & multilateral energy cooperation bases
Reducing investment barriers
Cross-border transportation network
 Collective action for climate change
 Political conflicts
Territorial disputes
Energy poverty problem in DPRK: Nuclear problem
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 Fuel wood use in DPRK
땔감채취 주민(금강산 온정리)
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 Deforestation and land slide in DPRK
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 Decreasing influence of IEA on world energy security
Decreasing IEA members’ share of world energy consumption
Due to fast growth of energy consumption in emerging markets
Decreasing influence of IEA members’ oil stockholding and
emergency preparedness against energy supply disruptions
 Strategic importance of NEA to IEA and world energy security
Opportunities to reduce energy consumption of NMCs: China
To improve energy efficiency, conservation and governance (+Russia)
To promote oil stockpiling and emergency preparedness (CERM)
Opportunities to increase energy production and diversify energy
supply sources: Eastern part of Russia and Mongolia
Russian PNG, LNG, oil and coal
Mongolian coal
 IEA outreach program
Various cooperative activities, such as stockpiling, policy review
and dialogue, with China and Russia to realize the opportunities,
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 Energy crisis in DPR Korea
TPES decreasing 3.5% per year since 1990
16.1 million TOE in 2003: 66% of 1990 level
Closed economy with US sanction: a State Sponsors Terrorism
No access to international financial organizations
 Strategic importance of DPR Korea to NEA and the World as a whole
Settling peace in Korean Peninsula is important in security and
stability of NEA region as well as the world as a whole
DPRK’s participation of energy cooperation in NEA is vital
Integral part of cross-border energy transportation network
– PNG, Oil pipeline, power grid, railways & harbor (coal and others)
 Approach of international communities: 6 Party Talk framework
Joint Statement (2005. 9. 19)
Consensus on economic cooperation for energy, trade and investment
China, Japan, ROK, Russia and US
Light-water nuclear reactor, 2MkW electricity and heavy oil support
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 Trend of alliances
Alliances among consumers, among producers and b/w
consumers and producers
 Strategic importance of NEA
The world class mega-consumers (China, Japan and Korea) and
mega-producers (Russia and Mongolia) coexist
 Status of membership in world alliance
Producers alliance: strengthening consolidation among producers
Russia: important player in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum
– Possibility to evolve to some kind of “Gas OPEC”
Consumers alliance: strengthening energy security
IEA: Korea and Japan
5 Countries Energy Ministerial Roundtable
– ROK, China, Japan, U.S.A. India (48% of global energy cons.)
– Dialogue channel to mitigate competition for energy security and
promote energy efficiency and investment
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October 2006
North Korea
Nuclear Weapon Test
UN Sanction on North Korea
Japanese Government Policy
Diplomatic relation with Korea
and China: Text book issues
Abduction problem with DPR
Korea
Territorial problem with
Russia
Russia
Resources nationalism
October 2008
North Korea
Progress in 6 party talks →
Disabling nuclear facilities
Energy assistance started
Japanese Government Change
Mr. Abe stepped down
Mr. Aso inaugurate his term
Will be pro-Asian policy?
Russia
Resource nationalism ↑
Ownership changes in the
Skhalin-II and Kovykta gas
projects
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 ESPO
Delay of 1st stage to the end of 2009
Technical problem, increased costs, strengthen environmental
standards
Conflict in price negotiation between Russia and China
To start construction of Kozmino oil export terminal (’08.5~’10)
Transneft’s announcement on 2nd stage plan
Feasibility study in ’09
To start construction at the end of ’09
To complete construction by the end of ’11
 Implication for energy cooperation
Reduced uncertainty on timing of 2nd stage
Need to start to dialogue for international participation
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 Contamination of financial crisis from US and resulted world
economic depression
Reduced demand for goods including energy
Collapse of oil prices and other energy prices
Collapse of raw materials prices
Collapse of values of energy enterprises in NEA in stock markets
 Implication for energy cooperation
Mixed effects on energy development and transportation projects
Reduced demand + collapse of energy prices = reduced economics
Collapse of raw materials prices = reduced construction costs
Mixed effects on international participation
Collapse of enterprises’ stock value in host countries = joint invest
Reduced demand + collapse of energy prices = less attractive
Time to get together to face it
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 DPR Korea issue
US removing DPRK from list of State Sponsors of Terrorism
Better chance for resolution of DPRK nuclear issue within 6 Party
Talk framework
 Presidential election in US
Presidential candidates have different energy policies and views
toward DPRK
The result of election might have some influence on Korean
Peninsula tension and NEA energy cooperation, in turn
The elected will be pro-DPRK?
 Implication for energy cooperation
DPRK may get access to international communities and financial
organization
Increased chance for DPRK joining NEA energy cooperation
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 Two objectives
To increase production of fossil fuel in NEA = supply security
To decrease demand for energy as a whole = Green Growth
To decrease demand for fossil fuel: energy efficiency and conservation
To substitute for fossil fuel: promotion of new and renewable energy
 Evolution from Fossil Fuel Paradigm to Green Growth Paradigm
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 Main Principles of Korean Approach
Development of free and fair trade
Investment promotion/protection and environmental protection
Addressing special needs and collaboration in emergencies
 Voluntary and Non-binding Participation
Induce all six NEA countries’ participation
Develop incentive mechanism for all NEA countries
 Open Regionalism to Non-NEA
Induce interests from US, EU, Energy Organization
Cope with international rules and regulation
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 Two-Level approach
Korean government pursues bilateral & multilateral cooperation
simultaneously by case
 Bilateral cooperation
Project level cooperation
Summit & Energy and Natural Resources Cooperation Committee
Korea-China, Korea-Russia, Korea-Mongolia, Korea-Japan
Example: Korea-Russia Summit: Joint gas development & supply PNG
 Multilateral cooperation
Cross-border transportation network, investment environment
6 Party Talk, 5-Countries Energy Ministerial Roundtable, APEC,
ASEAN+3, IEA, GTI, and so on
 Promotion of consumer and producer energy cooperation mechanism
SOC/UNESCAP
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 Establishment of Inter-governmental Collaborative Mechanism (ICM)
on Energy Cooperation in Northeast Asia
Membership: DPR Korea, Mongolia, the Republic of Korea, and the
Russian Federation
Created in November, 2005 at the first session of the Senior
Officials Committee (SOC)
Working Group Activity (Working Group for Energy Planning and
Policy – WG-EPP)
Members’ Country Report for Energy Policy and Statistics (‘06), Energy
Demand Forecasts (‘07), Energy Production Potentials (‘08)
 Issues
China’s and Japan’s participation
DPR Korea’s nuclear weapon program (6 Party Talk)
 Future plan
To upgrade to the Energy Ministerial Meeting in NEA
To expand activities of WG-EPP or create more working groups
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 Korea-Russia Summit in Sep. 2008
Russian PNG to Korea passing through DPR Korea: 7.5 MT/y (‘15~ )
Joint feasibility study (‘08~’10)
Signing natural gas supply contract b/w KOGAS & Gazprom (‘10)
Joint construction and operation of gas/petrochmical industrial
complex in Russian Far East
Joint establishment of model for LNG liquefaction plants and
petrochemical industrial complex construction and operation
Mega-scale Korea-Russia economic cooperation projects
Total scale of projects: more than USD100billion
 Implication
Encouraging DPRK participation + mitigation of Korean Peninsula
tension
Stimulating other energy development projects in Russia
Better energy security in Europe and Asia-Pacific region
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 National Energy Policy of Korea until 2030
Improving energy efficiency and reducing energy consumption
Reducing energy intensity from 0.341 to 0.185 TOE/US$1 by 2030
Increasing supply of clean energy and reducing fossil fuel use
Reducing share of fossil fuel from 83% to 61% by 2030
Boosting the green energy industry
Korea’s green energy tech. will be comparable to advanced countries
by 2030
Ensuring its citizens’ access to an affordable energy
 Implication for cooperation
Korea will lead and stimulate cooperation and competition for
green energy industry in NEA
Areas of cooperation
Establishment of green energy industry standards
Establishment of green energy pricing mechanism
Reduction of barriers and regulation in green energy industry
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