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Climate impacts on building energy use Bas van Ruijven NCAR – CGD – IAM CLM as Physical Impacts Model: Part of the integrated assessment framework! CESM iPETS Crop/forest yield Building energy use Urban heat waves LU emissions Water availability Renewables potentials Agricultural land use Land management Wood harvest Urbanization CLM Glacier Lake Runoff River Routing Wetland River discharge Urban Wood harvest Competition Disturbance Vegetation Dynamics Land Use Change Climate impacts on building energy use Growth 2 Horses for courses Change in… CESM CLMU Physical IAM (IMAGE) … temperature … demand for cooling/heating service … energy use for cooling/heating Economic IAM (iPETS) … energy use for buildings/HHs … energy system … CO2 emissions … energy expenditures … household expenditures … macro-economy (GDP) Climate impacts on building energy use 3 Model differences CESM CLMU Physical IAM (IMAGE) Economic IAM (iPETS) Main model unit Watt EJ/yr $ Time resolution 30 min annual annual Climate information Temperature Degreedays - Set point Min: 13-20 oC Max: 28-38 oC 18 oC - Scope Urban building energy Energy, emissions Economy, energy, emissions - Population, GDP, technology Population, GDP, technology 33 26 9 TBD/HD/MD Urban/rural, income - Socioeconomic changes Nr. world regions Sub-categories Climate impacts on building energy use 4 CLM Building Energy Model Conduction Convection Radiation Ventilation •The model determines energy demand through • Building thermal properties (heat transfer through roofs/walls/floors) • Wasteheat factors (efficiency of heating/cooling systems and the conversion of primary to end use energy) • Building thermostat settings K.W. Oleson, G.B. Bonan, J. Feddema and T. Jackson, An examination of urban heat island characteristics in a global climate model, Int. J. Climatol. 31: 1848–1865 (2011) IMAGE - heating Heating Floorspace HDD Intensity m2 oC Floor space kJ/m2/oC Intensity 70 200 60 kJ/m 2 /degree 150 2 m /capita 50 40 100 30 50 20 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 USD 2000/capita/yr UN Habitat Shen, 2006 Rural India Urban India IEA 2004 Eurostat Urban Audit Canada USA Mexico Rest C. America Brazil Rest S. America N. Africa W. Africa E. Africa South Africa W. Europe C. Europe Turkey Ukraine Stan Asia Russia Middle East India Korea China SE. Asia Indonesia Japan Oceania Rest S. Asia Rest S. Africa 0 10 2007 2100 van Ruijven BJ, van Vuuren DP, de Vries HJM, Isaac M, van der Sluijs JP, Lucas PL, Balachandra P. Model projections for6 household energy use in India. Energy Policy 2011;39; 7747-7761. IMAGE - cooling UEC Cooling HHs penetration efficiency penetration ClimateMaxSaturation× availability UEC CDD× f (income) Isaac M, van Vuuren D, P. Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context 7 of climate change. Energy Policy 2009;37; 507-521. iPETS Model Population-Economy-Technology Model Land Use CO2 Emissions Households Consumption & Savings Capital & Labor Final Goods Labor Capital Energy Final Goods Producers Consumption, Investment, Government, Exports/ Imports Materials Intermediate Goods Producers Oil, Gas, Coal, Electricity Refined Fuels, Agriculture, Materials O'Neill BC, Dalton M, Fuchs R, Jiang L, Pachauri S, Zigova K. Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2010;107; 17521-17526. 8 Heating/Cooling impacts in iPETS • No explicit modeling of heating/cooling – Six goods for consumption – Electricity, CoalBio, Other energy, Food, Transport, Other • Utility consumption preference, price, income • Simulate decisions under changing circumstances • More cooling -> increase in electricity preference • Less heating -> decrease in “other energy” preference • Results influenced by preference change and prices Climate impacts on building energy use 9 Some results • Latin America Modeling Project • SSP5 socioeconomic baseline • GFDL RCP8.5 climate data Change in… … energy use for cooling/heating CESM CLMU Physical IAM (IMAGE) Economic IAM (iPETS) … energy use for households … CO2 emissions Climate impacts on building energy use 10 iPETS SSP5 Baseline Latin America Households final energy 20 18 16 Electricity 14 EJ/yr 12 Gases 10 8 6 Liquids 4 2 Biomass Coal 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Coal Biomass Liquids Gases Climate impacts on building energy use Electricity 11 Smoothed HDD/CDD (GFDL – RCP8.5) 2.5 CDD 2004=1 2 1.5 1 0.5 HDD 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 Climate impacts on building energy use 2080 2100 12 Change in heating/cooling energy 1.8 35 Heating 1.6 Cooling 30 1.4 25 2004=1 2004=1 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 IMAGE 0.4 CLMU 0.2 0 2000 2020 2040 CLMU-GFDL 2060 CLMU 20 15 10 IMAGE 5 2080 2100 0 2000 IMAGE-GFDL 2020 2040 CLMU-GFDL 2060 2080 2100 IMAGE-GFDL Heating is very similar Cooling different, due to… … thermostat settings, time resolution, buildings/walls, socioeconomic change Climate impacts on building energy use 13 Change in household energy use 50% 50% IMAGE 40% Electricity 30% 20% 10% 10% Biomass 2020 2040 2060 2080 -20% -30% -40% Coal -50% Coal Biomass Liquids Gases 2100 Gases Liquids Electricity 30% 20% 0% -10%2000 iPETS 40% 0% -10%2000 2020 2040 Biomass 2080 Coal2100 2060 -20% Gases Liquids -30% -40% -50% Electricity Coal Biomass Liquids Gases Electricity iPETS preferences changed based on IMAGE Difference mostly due to macroeconomic feedbacks on prices Climate impacts on building energy use 14 Change in CO2 emissions % compared to no climate impacts 5% IMAGE 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2000 -1% 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 iPETS -2% iPETS IMAGE Differences due to electricity production structure Climate impacts on building energy use 15 Wrapping up • Developing tools to use CLM-U building energy use for iPETS building energy impacts • Big differences between models: method and scope • Noticeable changes in household energy use • Minor impacts on CO2 emissions • Future work: potential impacts on different socioeconomic groups Climate impacts on building energy use 16