Download Heating/cooling impacts iPETS

Climate impacts on building energy use
Bas van Ruijven
NCAR – CGD – IAM
CLM as Physical Impacts Model:
Part of the integrated assessment framework!
CESM
iPETS
Crop/forest yield
Building energy use
Urban heat waves
LU emissions
Water availability
Renewables
potentials
Agricultural land use
Land management
Wood harvest
Urbanization
CLM
Glacier
Lake
Runoff
River
Routing
Wetland
River discharge
Urban
Wood harvest
Competition
Disturbance
Vegetation
Dynamics
Land Use
Change
Climate impacts on building energy use
Growth
2
Horses for courses
Change in…
CESM
CLMU
Physical IAM
(IMAGE)
… temperature

… demand for cooling/heating service


… energy use for cooling/heating


Economic IAM
(iPETS)
… energy use for buildings/HHs


… energy system


… CO2 emissions


… energy expenditures


… household expenditures

… macro-economy (GDP)

Climate impacts on building energy use
3
Model differences
CESM
CLMU
Physical IAM
(IMAGE)
Economic IAM
(iPETS)
Main model unit
Watt
EJ/yr
$
Time resolution
30 min
annual
annual
Climate information
Temperature
Degreedays
-
Set point
Min: 13-20 oC
Max: 28-38 oC
18 oC
-
Scope
Urban building
energy
Energy, emissions
Economy, energy,
emissions
-
Population, GDP,
technology
Population, GDP,
technology
33
26
9
TBD/HD/MD
Urban/rural,
income
-
Socioeconomic
changes
Nr. world regions
Sub-categories
Climate impacts on building energy use
4
CLM Building Energy Model
Conduction
Convection
Radiation
Ventilation
•The model determines energy demand through
• Building thermal properties (heat transfer through roofs/walls/floors)
• Wasteheat factors (efficiency of heating/cooling systems and the
conversion of primary to end use energy)
• Building thermostat settings
K.W. Oleson, G.B. Bonan, J. Feddema and T. Jackson, An examination of urban heat island characteristics in a global climate
model, Int. J. Climatol. 31: 1848–1865 (2011)
IMAGE - heating
Heating  Floorspace  HDD  Intensity
m2
oC
Floor space
kJ/m2/oC
Intensity
70
200
60
kJ/m 2 /degree
150
2
m /capita
50
40
100
30
50
20
0
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
USD 2000/capita/yr
UN Habitat
Shen, 2006
Rural India
Urban India
IEA 2004
Eurostat Urban Audit
Canada
USA
Mexico
Rest C. America
Brazil
Rest S. America
N. Africa
W. Africa
E. Africa
South Africa
W. Europe
C. Europe
Turkey
Ukraine
Stan Asia
Russia
Middle East
India
Korea
China
SE. Asia
Indonesia
Japan
Oceania
Rest S. Asia
Rest S. Africa
0
10
2007
2100
van Ruijven BJ, van Vuuren DP, de Vries HJM, Isaac M, van der Sluijs JP, Lucas PL, Balachandra P. Model projections for6
household energy use in India. Energy Policy 2011;39; 7747-7761.
IMAGE - cooling
UEC
Cooling  HHs  penetration  efficiency
penetration  ClimateMaxSaturation× availability
UEC  CDD× f (income)
Isaac M, van Vuuren D, P. Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context
7
of climate change. Energy Policy 2009;37; 507-521.
iPETS Model
Population-Economy-Technology Model
Land Use
CO2 Emissions
Households
Consumption & Savings
Capital & Labor
Final
Goods
Labor
Capital
Energy
Final Goods Producers
Consumption, Investment,
Government, Exports/
Imports
Materials
Intermediate Goods Producers
Oil, Gas, Coal, Electricity
Refined Fuels, Agriculture,
Materials
O'Neill BC, Dalton M, Fuchs R, Jiang L, Pachauri S, Zigova K. Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2010;107; 17521-17526.
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Heating/Cooling impacts in iPETS
• No explicit modeling of heating/cooling
– Six goods for consumption
– Electricity, CoalBio, Other energy, Food, Transport, Other
• Utility  consumption  preference, price, income
• Simulate decisions under changing circumstances
• More cooling -> increase in electricity preference
• Less heating -> decrease in “other energy” preference
• Results influenced by preference change and prices
Climate impacts on building energy use
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Some results
• Latin America Modeling Project
• SSP5 socioeconomic baseline
• GFDL RCP8.5 climate data
Change in…
… energy use for cooling/heating
CESM
CLMU
Physical IAM
(IMAGE)


Economic IAM
(iPETS)
… energy use for households


… CO2 emissions


Climate impacts on building energy use
10
iPETS SSP5 Baseline Latin America
Households final energy
20
18
16
Electricity
14
EJ/yr
12
Gases
10
8
6
Liquids
4
2
Biomass
Coal
0
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Coal
Biomass
Liquids
Gases
Climate impacts on building energy use
Electricity
11
Smoothed HDD/CDD
(GFDL – RCP8.5)
2.5
CDD
2004=1
2
1.5
1
0.5
HDD
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
Climate impacts on building energy use
2080
2100
12
Change in heating/cooling energy
1.8
35
Heating
1.6
Cooling
30
1.4
25
2004=1
2004=1
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
IMAGE
0.4
CLMU
0.2
0
2000
2020
2040
CLMU-GFDL
2060
CLMU
20
15
10
IMAGE
5
2080
2100
0
2000
IMAGE-GFDL
2020
2040
CLMU-GFDL
2060
2080
2100
IMAGE-GFDL
Heating is very similar
Cooling different, due to…
… thermostat settings, time resolution, buildings/walls, socioeconomic change
Climate impacts on building energy use
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Change in household energy use
50%
50%
IMAGE
40%
Electricity
30%
20%
10%
10%
Biomass
2020
2040
2060
2080
-20%
-30%
-40%
Coal
-50%
Coal
Biomass
Liquids
Gases
2100
Gases
Liquids
Electricity
30%
20%
0%
-10%2000
iPETS
40%
0%
-10%2000
2020
2040
Biomass
2080 Coal2100
2060
-20%
Gases
Liquids
-30%
-40%
-50%
Electricity
Coal
Biomass
Liquids
Gases
Electricity
iPETS preferences changed based on IMAGE
Difference mostly due to macroeconomic feedbacks on prices
Climate impacts on building energy use
14
Change in CO2 emissions
% compared to no climate impacts
5%
IMAGE
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2000
-1%
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
iPETS
-2%
iPETS
IMAGE
Differences due to electricity
production
structure
Climate impacts on building energy use
15
Wrapping up
• Developing tools to use CLM-U building energy use
for iPETS building energy impacts
• Big differences between models: method and scope
• Noticeable changes in household energy use
• Minor impacts on CO2 emissions
• Future work: potential impacts on different
socioeconomic groups
Climate impacts on building energy use
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