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Catching and Riding the Wave of
Demographic Change:
From costs to opportunity (costs)
Gary Rhoades
Center for the Study of Higher Education
University of Arizona
Three points beyond:
“Catch a wave and …”
◊ Public policy discourse at the state level
◊ System & campus level discourse and strategic
direction
◊ Incentives and accountability metrics
Public policy discourse
◊ Tidal Waves II & I in California (Clark Kerr)
◊ Difference between 1993 and 1960,
in California and nationally:
from the wave as an opportunity to invest in
(we can build out for it)
to the wave as a threat and a cost to be contained
(we can’t afford it).
◊ Declining state support nationally
Opportunity costs
of cost containment
◊ Demographic wave, beyond tidal wave
◊ The demographic wave is of color, and it is classed
(opportunity cost of > social stratification)
◊ The demographic wave as needing accommodation
(and therefore as expensive) versus recognizing the
demographic wave as infusing talent and energy
(opportunity cost of not transforming ourselves by
chasing, catching, and riding the wave).
System and campus level discourse
and strategic direction
◊ Similar sense of constraint in public sector, of fiscal
realities, contributing to more “academic capitalism”.
◊ That has contributed to changing the way institutions
organize and are oriented to student aid (McPherson &
Shapiro, 1998).
◊ So too, I think, it has contributed to the expansion of
strategic enrollment management practices aimed at
enhancing institutional resources, & prestige.
◊ In this context, low income students are seen as being
costly to recruit, retain. So the pattern is generally to
develop programs at the margins.
The Global pattern:
“Engines of Inequality”
• Less access over time for underrepresented minorities,
relative to high school graduation (35 of 50 flagships
reduced access relative to high school graduation).
• Less access for low-income students (44 of 50 flagships
reduced access relative to other universities).
• Public universities pursuing “better” students and
wealthier (and out-of-state) students to maximize their
prestige and their net tuition revenue. Strategic enrollment
management has led to more universities chasing the same
students to win at the same prestige and revenue games.
• It is not only the flagships that are playing this game; the
next tier of publics is moving in this direction too.
From reactive
“strategic” imitation…
To creative, strategic imagination
The importance of place
• Working to the historical, comparative advantage and
strength of one’s place.
• Working to sustainable, distinctive niches.
Incentives & accountability metrics
◊ More complete accounting internally, of the costs of
pursuing and serving various student populations, to
make informed decisions about strategies.
◊ Rethink our accountability externally, because
graduation rates and time to completion are
organizational efficiency measures that are
socially inefficient.
◊ Value added beyond undergraduate learning outcomes
Mapping the institution’s specific contributions to
intergenerational upward social mobility, human
capital development, and “non-cognitive” outcomes.
Value added that fulfills our social compact.
Catching
and riding the wave of
demographic change