Download Report on Delphi Results and Discussion

The Collaborative Delphi
Helen Ivy Rowe
Purpose
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Briefly define Collaborative Delphi.
Describe its use by the SRR.
Provide update on issues covered by
Delphi.
Delphi Defined
The Delphi is a research technique used
for gathering and developing expert
opinion through iterative surveys.
Collaborative Delphi
Choose issues from meetings.
Send questionnaires.
Summarize responses.
Send responses with further questions.
Individuals given the opportunity to revise
their original answers in response to group
feedback.
Use Delphi results to continue debate in
meeting or in another round of Delphi.
Delphi benefits
Anonymity removes fear of embarrassment
for:
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Presenting views in public.
Contradicting superiors.
“Fresh” input untainted by the opinions of
others.
Process cannot be domineered by the few.
Opportunity to freely change an opinion in
response to group feedback.
Baseline Issue
Issue: From what point should SRR
recommend that data be collected for
each indicator?
Delphi 8 and 9 results: Split between
choosing present/current status and
using the earliest possible data for each
indicator as a starting point.
Baseline Issues
Present/current status (start with now)*
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No bias.
End user can compare with historical data
Is historical data useful?
Difficulty in past data sets using same protocol.
Earliest possible data*
Each baseline should be chosen based on the
indicator.
 Should objectively report as much information as
possible. (Why limit the information reported?)
 Starting with current status will limit interpretability
of data.
*In either case, some baselines may start in the future.
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Reporting Methods
Issue: SRR must decide how data for each
indicator is reported.
Delphi 9: Given 7 methods to spatially
categorize data, indicate level of acceptability
and preference, give comments.
Results: 1. An array of comments indicated
that more than one method should be
employed by SRR. 2. Ecological Climate
Zones rated most acceptable and most
preferred option.
Reporting Methods
Delphi 10: Should we limit the number of
spatial methods we use in reporting data? If
so to what number?
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Options:
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#1 Limit to two methods : political and 1 ecological
(result: 2 methods)
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#2 Do not limit approaches: each indicator should be
reported according to the most appropriate methods.
(result: 7 methods)
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#3 Each criterion group will chose one methods to report
all of its indicators (result: 4 methods)
Reporting Methods
Results: mixed, Option #1 slightly
preferred
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#1 Limit to two methods: political and 1
ecological (result: 2 methods)
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Simplifies the output for clearer reporting overall.
Some responses here argued for using geo
referencing political data and thereby using only one
reporting method.
All social and economic indicators might not fit with
political boundaries (zip code and census tract data).
Reporting Methods
#3 Each criterion group will chose one
method to report all of its indicators (result: 4
methods)
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Standardize reporting methods within the Criterion Group,
fewer methods overall than #2.
Difficult to interpret data for policy makers and scientists.
Not possible to form indicators into an “integrated index”.
Would have to read each indicator separately.
Only one method for each Criterion Group is too narrow.
Reporting Methods
#2 Do not limit approaches: each indicator
should be reported according to the most
appropriate method. (result: 7 methods)
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No one good method for displaying everything.
Best reflects diversity of data.
Allows for the most appropriate method to be chosen for
each indicator. Increases complexity permitted in
reporting.
Difficult to interpret data for policy makers and scientists.
Not possible to form indicators into an “integrated index”.
Would have to read each indicator separately.
Need continuity within the overall report.
Next Steps
Baseline Issues and reporting methods will
be discussed at the next meeting.
 This meeting: Criterion groups may offer
suggestions for next Delphi topics.
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Any feedback or questions?
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How well is Delphi serving our process?
Thank you for your participation.