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Integrated Energy Planning and Clean Energy Alternatives in Borneo, East Malaysia Dr. Rebekah Shirley and Professor Daniel M. Kammen Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley 11 • Analysis of Clean Energy Options for Sabah prepared by Berkeley in 2010 • Biomass waste projects at large palm oil mills are cost-competitive with coal • Alternate Palm Oil Waste OR Geothermal/Micro Hydro Systems could meet future demand at equal cost while dramatically reducing emissions • Policy recommendations on phase out of coal subsidy, support of PV incentive schemes and regulation of Palm Oil Ind. Sabah is a global leader in sustainable development Borneo Says No to Dirty Energy By Jennifer Pinkowski Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2011 Daniel Kammen of the University of California, Berkeley, who directed an energy and environmental-impact study commissioned by a coalition of green groups, which was used widely in the discussions of Sabah's energy options. "It is a turning point that should bring deserved praise and partnerships to Malaysia at the upcoming climate conference in Durban, South Africa,” http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2052627,00.html#ixzz1lvOeiiyz Research Motivation: Integrating Bottom up Solutions into Local Development Planning What are feasible alternative energy mixes for Sarawak that meet future energy demand for the local population given priorities of cost, human and environmental impact? • What is the potential for renewable resources to satisfy (a) rural energy needs and (b) utility scale needs? • What are the implications of different energy market scenarios on optimal generation mix? • What ecological impacts can we measure in a data constrained context? • How does this information filter into the assessment of energy 8 alternatives? 15 Output: Optimal System Design Table Showing Optimal System Economics in Three Baram Villages Village Tanjung Tepalit Long Anap Long San Category Least Total Cost Diesel Base Case Least Total Cost Diesel Base Case Least Total Cost Diesel Base Case System Specification Annual Initial Cost Operating (US$) Cost (US$) Total NPC ((US$) LCOE (US$/kWh) Average Capacity Annual Fuel per Shortage Operating Day (L/day) (%) Cost Ratio NPC Ratio LCOE Ratio 9 KW Hydro + 60kWh Battery 29,170 2,166 54,408 0.150 0.00 5.3 0.16 0.33 0.35 20kW Diesel 8,800 13,470 165,771 0.433 27.60 0.0 0.00 1.00 1.00 7kW Hydro + 20kW Diesel + 120kWh Battery 62,870 18,018 272,847 0.354 35.29 4.6 0.66 0.81 0.85 40kW Diesel 17,600 27,334 336,145 0.416 57.17 0.0 0.00 1.00 1.00 11kW Hydro + 40kW Diesel 18,900 27,444 338,723 0.306 57.74 5.8 0.68 0.68 0.72 60kW Diesel 26,400 40,650 500,115 0.426 84.00 0.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 Key Findings • Hydro-turbines are the least cost technology. Meeting load in dry months is the primary challenge under a zero shortage constraint • Small scale biogasification is frequently selected for optimal systems in bigger villages where total waste volume high. Resource availability is important – variable rice schedule. • PV is less cost effective technology for current village demand profile. Capital and replacement costs of battery packs are major cost component for least cost systems that meet a zero shortage constraint • Diesel is the most expensive form of electric production for Baram villages given the recurrent fuel costs 38 2. What are alternative large-scale energy options? Historical and Predicted Demand Average Monthly Demand Demand Growth Scenarios Question: What alternatives does modeling show exist wrt reliability, cost and impact? How cost competitive are different generation mixes? Tool: Commercial Capacity Expansion Model – PLEXOS Data: (a) Historical and Predicated Peak and Average Demand - National Planning and Implementation Committee for Electricity Supply (JPPET), SEB, MEC); (b) Primary Energy Resource Availability – Global Data Sets, Government21 Agencies; (c) Cost Information, Emissions Data – Government Agencies Collecting Data on Resource Availability Wilmar Plantations, 2013 PV Installations at CREATE, Sabah • NASA Surface meteorology and Solar Energy Resource • Sarawak Integrated Water Resources (Hydrometric Data) 22 • Resource Boards (Timber Board, Palm Oil Board), Site Visits and SEB for Biomass Collecting Data on Resource Availability Dams planned and being developed under SCORE (Sovacool and Bulan, 2012) Dam Status Resevoir Area (km2) Water Level (m) Affected Settlements Output (MW) Commencement of Date Estimated Cost Construction Operational (Mill USD) Bakun Baleh Built Planned 700 527.3 255 241 31 1 2400 1300 1994 2019 Baram Under Construction 412.5 200 36 1200 2014 Batang Ai Built 76.9 125 59 108 1981 Belaga Planned 37.5 170 0 260 2015 242 Belepeh Lawas Planned Planned 71.8 12.4 570 225 5 1 114 87 After 2022 After 2022 49 95 Limbang Planned 41.3 230 11 245 After 2022 439 Linau Murum Pelagus Planned Under Construction Planned 52 241.7 150.8 450 560 60 3 10 78 297 944 410 After 2022 2008 2015 264 1,061 424 Hydroelectric Dam and Reservoir Dimensions Dimension Capacity Units MW Murum Dam 944 Batang Ai Dam 108 Bakun Dam 2,400 Crest Length m 473 810 814 Dam Height m 141 85 206 Catchment Area 2 km 2,750 1,200 14,750 Resevoir Gross Storage Dead Storage km3 km3 12.04 2.87 44.00 6.57 1.63 24.99 Full Supply Level m 540 108 228 Min Operating Level Reservoir Area at Full Supply Level Reservoir Area at Min Operation Level m km2 km2 515 245 234 98 85 77 195 695 594 2011 4,644 2,424 1,515 1985 2013 • • 387 Dimensions - Sarawak Integrated Water Resource Dept Monthly Peak and Minimum Energy Outputs Department of Irrigation and Drainage Data 23 Environmental Adders: GHG Emissions Intensity Cost and Operation Parameters Power Plant Parameters used for Optimization Modeling Power Plant Type Coal Gas Diesel HEP Batang Ai HEP Bakun HEP Baram HEP Murum HEP Other Oil Palm Biomass POME Plant Run Of River Solar PV Wind Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 9370 6705 10991 0 0 0 0 0 10625 9480 0 0 0 Emissions Production Rate (lb/MWh) 2291 1080 1647 72 36 92 44 69 500 200 0 0 0 Build Cost ($/kW) 2890 1230 917 3870 3870 3870 3870 3870 3830 3030 1300 2357 2213 FO&M Cost ($/kW-year) 23.0 6.3 6.8 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 95.0 120.0 10.0 48.0 39.6 VO&M Cost ($/MWh) 3.7 3.6 3.6 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 10 0 0 2015 Forestland Value Charge ($/kW-year) 6.8 10.7 7.8 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 375 375 0 9.5 22.1 Levels of Variability in Analysis Demand Forecasts Scenarios Priorities Sensitivity Analysis BAU Growth 7% Growth per annum 10% Growth per annum SCORE Forecast 20% 2020 RPS Feed-in Tariff Reference SCORE Least Cost Minimum Reserve Margin GHG Emissions Cost Forestland Value Adder Emission Pricing Scheme Emission Production Rates Technology Build Costs Land Limits Data Sources • “Cost and Performance Data for Power Generation.” Prepared for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2012. • U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Annual Energy Outlook 2013 with Projections to 2040,” Apr. 2013 • Sarawak Energy Berhad Oil Palm Waste Operations Parameters 25 Generation (GWh) Dispatchable Energy vs Demanded Energy under 7% Growth Outputs: Generation Profile, Cost Components and Generation Characteristics of Scenarios under 7% Demand Growth 26 Sensitivity Results under 7% Growth [LRC = Low RE Cost; HDE = High Dam Emissions; ICP = Increased Carbon Price] 27 Sarawak Land Cover under SCORE Sarawak Land Cover using Distributed Energy Resources Using Global Species Range Data for Borneo • • • • Top-down Approaches: large-scale maps of species occurrence, expert assessment or distribution models Bottom-up Approaches: high quality small-scale data upscaled using scaling relationships (e.g.SAR) Our Study - Combined Approach: Able to estimate three distinct measures of biodiversity impact for each dam and all three dams together: (i) the number of affected species, (ii) number of local extinctions and (iii) number of lost individual organisms Completed for four taxonomic groups: mammals, birds, trees, and arthropods 44 How are mammal, bird, tree and arthropod species affected by the dams? Trees and Arthropods Species Richness and Individuals Lost: SAR and Census Data Census Plots: Lambir Hills (S = 1,174 species and N 366,121 individual trees) Pasoh Forest Reserve (S = 818, N = 320,382) San Lorenzo, Panama Extinctions: EAR SAR and EAR functional forms: Harte, J. 2011. Maximum Entropy and Ecology: A Theory of Abundance, Distribution and Energetics. Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press 29 Outputs: Biodiversity Study Summary Statistics Table 1. Showing Number of Species Affected and Estimated Number of Individuals Lost for SCORE Dams Birds Mammals Total Number Total Number Reservoir Number of Individuals Lost Number of Individuals Lost Hydroelectric Dam Status Area (km2) Species Affected (Millions) Species Affected (Millions) Bakun Operational since 2011 701 302 1.75 142 55.09 Murum Being inundated 242 312 0.61 147 19.55 Baram Under Construction 414 318 1.04 162 35.52 Table 2. Showing Red List Category Break Down for SCORE Dams (Bakun, Murum, Baram) Code Definition Birds Mammals EX Extinct (EX) 0 0 EW Extinct in the Wild (EW) 0 0 CR Critically Endangered (CR) 0 1 EN Endangered (EN) 2 6 VU Vulnerable (VU) 14 24 NT Near Threatened (NT) 75 14 LC Least Concern (LC) 240 103 DD Data Deficient (DD) 0 16 Table 3. Impact Summary Statistics (Bakun, Baram, Murum) Birds Mammals Total Number of Species Globally 10424 5513 Total Number of Species in Borneo 580 239 Number of Species Affected 331 164 Percentage Global Species Affected 3.2% 3.0% Percentage Bornean Species Affected 57.1% 68.6% Maximum Percentage Global Range Affected 4.7% 1.8% Corresponding Species Petaurillus emiliae Oriolus hosii Common Name Lesser Pygmy Flying Squirrel Black Oriole Sunda Pangolin Grey Gibbon Bornean Pheasant http://brighterfuturechallenge.com/gray-gibbon-hylobates-moloch/ http://www.vulkaner.no/n/africa/pangolin.html http://evoluahomosapiens.blogspot.com/2013/02/gato-vermelho-de-borneu-catopuma-badia.html http://www.gbwf.org/pheasants/borneo03.html Bornean Bay Cat 30 Conservative Results (Limitations): • The application of the SAR and EAR do not account for the steeply sloping topography of the reservoir areas. All three estimates are based on scaling laws or range maps, which do not consider undiscovered species of birds and mammals within the island of Borneo • The estimates of species-level extinctions do not reflect potential extinctions of subspecies or local populations, both of which may be critical to species’ long-term viability • The analysis does not account for the many impacts of these three dams on biodiversity that are not directly related to habitat loss from reservoir inundation