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ASSESSMENT OF THE EXISTING FOOD
SECURITY AND VULNERABILITY MAPPING
IN THE MENA REGION DURING THE 20072008 FOOD PRICE CRISIS
11 November 2009
THORIC CEDERSTROM, PHD ; PATRICIA COSTA, MPP ; ERIC SARRIOT, MD, PHD
Context
• 2007 and 2008, international prices for food and fuel
skyrocketed
• Chronically malnourished people jumped from 850
million in 2005 to 963 million today
• The economic, social and health consequences have
only begun to be understood and measured
• The ICF Macro Team conducted two field assessments
in Djibouti and Morocco
• Secondary review of overall food Crisis and impact in the
MENA region
Global Food Price Fluctuation
(FAO Stat)
Study objectives
• What monitoring systems and measurement instruments
(FIVIMS) Exist?
• What were the effects on poor and vulnerable
populations?
• What has been the governments’ (and other
stakeholders) Response?
• What is the role of UNICEF in conjunction with its
partners?
Methodology
• Document review (recent studies; grey lit.)
– Country studies
– Regional review
• In-depth interviews in Morocco and Djibouti
–
–
–
–
Who / where are the most vulnerable?
How are they identified and located?
How did the recent food crisis affect them?
How did your government / organization respond?
Vulnerability to food insecurity
“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have
physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and
nutritional food to meet their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy life”
(FAO 1996).
“Vulnerability” = exposure to risk/ability to cope
Concepts developed in 1975 at the first World Food Summit in Rome.
What happens when prices rise?
Increase intake of
lower quality cereals
and food
Decrease energy and
protein intake
Decrease intake of
staple foods
Decrease intake of
non – staple foods
Increase of
food prices
Decrease of
real income
Decrease
micronutrient
Increase in Protein
Energy Malnutrition
Increase time spent
on income generating
activities
Decrease expenditure
on Health, education
and non-food items
Increase incidence of
negative coping
mechanisms
(prostitution, child labor)
Decrease in
remittances from
urban to rural areas
Decrease caretaking
Increase in
Micronutrient
Malnutrition
Increase and severity
of illnesses
Increase in Stunting
I - Djibouti
Djibouti: national vulnerabilities to
the food price crisis:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Economic
Environmental
Governmental
Health Services
Human Capital
Regional Unrest
Infrastructure
Health indicators Djibouti
Weight for Age
Height for Age
Weight for Height
%< -2
SD
%<-3
SD
%<-2
SD
%<-3
SD
%<-2
SD
%<-3
SD
%>+2
SD
Male
30.8
11.1
34.1
21.7
21.2
8.2
9.5
Female
26.8
9.4
30.7
17.4
20.2
6.7
11.1
Total
28.9
10.3
32.6
19.7
20.7
7.5
10.2
Djibouti: Food security and
vulnerability mapping systems
• Nascent stages of developing food
security and vulnerability mapping
systems.
• National Food Security Strategy Existent
but not operational
• Lack of statistics and data, last census in
1983
• No culture of monitoring and evaluation
Djibouti:
Government responses
• Eliminated taxes in five basic food commodities
• Created a Surveillance Brigade that monitored
prices at the retail level
• Promoted its agriculture sector
• Leased land in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Malawi
• Development of a National Food Security
Strategy
Vulnerable Populations
• Impacts of food crisis obscured by
prolonged drought
• Coping mechanisms for seasonal food
insecurity employed
• Massive outmigration from rural areas
• Reliance on remittances disrupted
• Under-nutrition critically high
• Food aid – major factor
II - Morocco
Morocco: national vulnerabilities
to the food price crisis
•
•
•
•
•
Economic & Agriculture
Governmental
Health Services
Human Capital
Infrastructure
Health indicators Morocco
Weight for Age
Height for Age
(Z < -2)
1997
2003-04
%
%
(Z < -2)
1997
2003-04
%
%
Weight for Height
(Z < -2)
1997
2003-04
%
%
Overweight
(Z>+2)
1997
2003-04
%
%
Total
8.9
10.2
24.1
18.1
3.9
9.3
9.2
9.3
Male
9.1
10.4
25.6
19.1
4.3
9.4
9.5
9
Female
8.6
10
22.6
17.1
3.5
9.2
8.8
9.6
Food security and vulnerability
mapping systems
• No formal FIVIMS in place
• Some data available but the country has yet to engage in
systematic monitoring and evaluations
• HCP in charge of Data collection and poverty mapping.
Data collection for FIVIMS not coordinated
• Other ministries collect some data and conduct sporadic
surveys (health, Agriculture, Finance) but questions exist
about reliability
• Lack of Food Security Strategy
Impacts of food crisis on
vulnerable populations: children
• Majority of poor, food insecure & vulnerable is rural
• Increased numbers of street children, begging and antisocial behavior
• Alarming rates of child labor and abuse (domestic
workers, artisan industry, child prostitution)
• High rates of (failed) immigration to Europe
• High rates of malnutrition
• Increased drop out from education, with long-term
consequences on quality of life.
Government responses (and
other mitigating factors)
• Direct government responses:
– Subsidies of primary food commodities,
subsidies to wheat producers, and
elimination/reduction of tariffs
• Other mitigating factors:
– Microfinance
– INDH/ONDH
– Maroc Plan Vert
– Fortification Program
III - MENA
Two Ends of the MENA
Spectrum
•
•
•
•
•
•
Morocco: able to respond with effective mitigating interventions & softened
the effects of the price increases on its population (most vulnerable??)
Djibouti: only able to implement a narrow range of responses to protect its
citizens.
In both cases, though, the price increases were felt at the household level,
even among more food secure social strata, forcing consumers to make
hard choices on food consumption and other basic livelihood expenditures.
And also in both cases, the necessary data were not available determine
what were the specific impacts on the livelihoods of each country’s food
insecure and vulnerable populations.
Neither country had integrated data-collection systems
Both countries pushed by the situation to come up with strategic plans to
address the longer-term food security issues they face
From the Summary Report
Common Themes Across
MENA Region
• Limited food access
• Demand pressures driven by urbanized young
population
• Limited supply of agriculture
• Limited water supply
• Rural poverty
• Low food stability / preparedness/ vulnerability to shocks
• Poor information systems
• Poor Food Security Monitoring
• High rates of stunting, indicating a chronic malnutrition
problem in vulnerable & food insecure population groups
MENA Government Responses
MENA-wide Recommendations
to UNICEF
1. Improve the effectiveness of social safety nets for the region’s most
vulnerable populations.
2. Identify and address the underlying causes of malnutrition in MENA
countries that have persistently high rates of malnutrition,
especially stunting.
3. Work with communities to promote best choices for optimal
nutrition.
4. Protect and Develop Critical Water Resources.
5. Expand child and women protection efforts to include livelihood
initiatives of vulnerable households.
6. Conduct additional studies to better understand local causal links
and develop more effective programs.
Thank You.