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West Virginia University
Demystifying the Logic Model
Trace Gale, PhD
Extension Specialist &
Assistant Professor
Community Resources
& Economic
Development
May 2007
This is a really cute story…
• Standing in the kitchen, he hears the rising
whistle of the family tea kettle wooOOO...
• Springing into action, he grabs a rolling pin and
mercilessly bashes and smashes the once
merry kettle into a useless, shapeless hunk of
copper.
• His doctor, hearing the fuss, rushes into the
kitchen, sees what's happened and asks his
friend, "Why'd you wreck our lovely tea kettle?"
• The spaceman replies: “Hey, you gotta kill
these things when they're small."
Get it?
Maybe a little context would help…
The Train, the Spaceman, and the Tea Kettle…
• A spaceman who'd lived all his life on Jupiter came
to visit Earth.
• Now he'd never laid eyes on a train or the iron rails on
which they run.
• Standing in the middle of the tracks one day, he
heard a distant whistle... WOOOO--ooo---OOOOO!
but didn't have a clue as to what it meant or his
impending danger.
• Predictably, the spaceman was hit -- fortunately it
was just a side swipe. He was thrown, head over
heels off the tracks, but got off with some minor
internal injuries, a few broken bones, and some
bruises.
• After weeks in the hospital recovering, his doctor
invited him to his house for dinner one evening.
With the context in place…
• Standing in the kitchen, he hears the rising
whistle of the family tea kettle wooOOO...
• Springing into action, he grabs a rolling pin and
mercilessly bashes and smashes the once
merry kettle into a useless, shapeless hunk of
copper.
• His doctor, hearing the fuss, rushes into the
kitchen, sees what's happened and asks his
friend, "Why'd you wreck our lovely tea kettle?"
• The spaceman replies: “Hey, you gotta kill
these things when they're small."
…does it make more sense?
Today’s Discussion
The
Context
Logical
Framework
Approach
The Logic
Model
Linking it All
Together
The Context
• A logic model is a simple illustration
of the logic behind a policy,
program, or initiative.
• It demonstrates the links between
the theoretical
assumptions/principles of a
program, the program
activities/processes, and the
outcomes (both short and longterm).
• It highlights how results will be
monitored and evaluated.
The Context
• A Logic Model is the culminating
document produced through the
Logical Framework Approach (LFA).
• LFA is a long established activity design
methodology used by development
agencies and organizations around the
world.
• LFA is based on a systematic analysis of
the situation in place, particularly key
problems that exist, and of the options
for addressing those problems to
produce positive change.
Context
• The Logical Framework Approach, and
its culminating document, the Logic
Model evolved into popular use based
on the assumption that inadequate
planning is a persistent fundamental
problem in development.
• Planning documents are often specific
and clear as to the physical and
financial inputs, personnel, activities and
expected physical results, but…
• Thorough assessment of the overall
objectives, the target groups and the
external factors which determine success
or failure are often lacking…
(NORAD, 1990:3)
Context
• Donor organizations repeatedly urge
improved planning and project
preparation with more emphasis on
monitoring, analysis, and evaluation
during the lifetime of projects.
• There is ample evidence to show that a
modest investment in improved planning
usually pays off in terms of better projects
and direct savings.
(NORAD, 1990:3)
The Context
Ex/post
Evaluation
Impact
Evaluation
Identification
Problem
Analysis
Termination
Preparation
Feasibility
Study
Transfer to
Normal
Administration
The Project Program Cycle
Monitoring
and
Reviews
Design
•LFA underlies
the entire
project /
program
cycle.
•The Logic
Model is a
simple
graphic
representatio
n of the
master
project logic.
Appraisal
Implementation Intervention
Start
Organization
Negotiations
and
Agreement
Source: Hvidt, 1987
Logical Framework Approach
• The Logical Framework Approach
is a set of methods for problem
analysis which requires:
– A minimum degree of consensus
between the stakeholders over what
the basic problem to be addressed is
– The problem to be formulated in such
a way that it can be addressed by
specified interventions.
Logical Framework Approach
• The LFA methodology involves
four guiding elements:
–
–
–
–
Problem analysis
Stakeholder analysis
Objectives analysis
Selection of a preferred
implementation strategy
Hints:
• This is an
iterative
process, not a
linear set of
prescribed
steps.
• This analysis
should be
completed in a
participatory
process.
• Consider a SSA
workshop –
processes and
tools exist - WVU
Extension can
help!
Logical Framework Approach
• Problem Analysis:
– Identify the existing problems, or
negative states, that your
development program will address.
– Example:
» There are no scenic byways in our
area: WRONG
» Tourists have no reason to come to our
area: RIGHT
– Establish the cause and effect
relationships which result in, and flow
from, these problems.
Hint: Work
hard to get
to the root
causes, not
just the
symptoms
of the
problems.
Logical Framework Approach
• A main tool for problem
analysis is the problem tree.
Source: AusAID, 2005
Logical Framework Approach
• Stakeholder analysis gives
further consideration to:
– who is impacted most by these
problems, and
– the roles and interests of
different stakeholders in
addressing the problems and
reaching solutions.
Logical Framework Approach
• The main steps in stakeholder
analysis include:
– Identifying the principal stakeholders
(local, regional, national)
– Investigating their roles, interests,
relative power, and capacity to
participate
– Identifying the extent of cooperation
or conflict in the relationship between
stakeholders, and
– Interpreting the findings of the analysis
and defining how this should be
incorporated into activity design.
Logical Framework Approach
• Analysis of objectives involves
reassessing the problems and
root causes you have
identified and developing
related objectives.
Logical Framework Approach
• Objective trees can help:
– Take your problem tree and turn
the problem statements into
objective statements
– While the problem tree shows
you cause and effect, the
objective tree will show you the
means by which your desired
ends will be achieved.
Logical Framework Approach
Example
of an
Objective
Tree
Source: AusAID, 2005
Logical Framework Approach
• Once the Objective Tree is
developed, you should check:
– Clarity of the statements
– Logic & Reasonability of the
linkages
– Whether the level of detail is
sufficient
– the likelihood that the actions of
one level will lead to the desired
objectives of the next
Logical Framework Approach
• An analysis of the alternative
strategies should be
conducted.
• This should involve an
assessment of the potential
benefits and risks associated
with the different interventions
being identified.
Logical Framework Approach
• Evaluation criteria for alternative
interventions might include:
– Benefits to target groups – level of benefits,
equity, participation
– Sustainability of the benefits
– Ability to repair and maintain assets postactivity
– Total cost and recurrent cost implications
– Financial and economic viability
– Technical feasibility
– Contribution to institutional strengthening and
management capacity building
– Environmental impact, and
– Compatibility of activity with priorities of
organization.
The Logic Model
Components of the Logic Model
9
2
Priorities
Situation
1
Resources /
Inputs
7
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
• A picture of how you believe your
program is going to work.
• Demonstrates the order of activities and
how these activities connect to the
expected program results.
Sources: W.K. Kellogg Foundation,
University of Wisconsin Extension Service
The Logic Model
Components of the Logic Model
9
2
Priorities
Situation
1
Resources /
Inputs
7
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
• A picture of how you believe your
program is going to work.
• Demonstrates the order of activities and
how these activities connect to the
expected program results.
Sources: W.K. Kellogg Foundation,
University of Wisconsin Extension Service
The Logic Model
Components of the Logic Model
2
Priorities
Situation
1
9
1
Resources /
Inputs
7
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
Situation / Priorities involves the context for your
project. Includes needs and assets, problems,
stakeholder engagement, and related priorities.
Sources: W.K. Kellogg Foundation,
University of Wisconsin Extension Service
The Logic Model
Components of the Logic Model
2
Priorities
Situation
1
9
2
Resources /
Inputs
7
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
Resources / Inputs include human, financial,
organizational, and community resources a
program has available to direct toward doing
the work.
Sources: W.K. Kellogg Foundation,
University of Wisconsin Extension Service
The Logic Model
Components of the Logic Model
2
Priorities
Situation
1
9
3
Resources /
Inputs
7
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
Program Activities are what the program does with
the resources. Activities are the processes, tools,
events, technology, and actions that are an
intentional part of the program implementation.
These interventions are used to bring about the
intended program changes or results.
Sources: W.K. Kellogg Foundation,
University of Wisconsin Extension Service
The Logic Model
Components of the Logic Model
2
Priorities
Situation
1
9
4
Resources /
Inputs
7
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
Outputs are the direct products of program
activities and may include types, levels and targets
of services to be delivered by the program.
Sources: W.K. Kellogg Foundation,
University of Wisconsin Extension Service
The Logic Model
Components of the Logic Model
2
Priorities
Situation
1
9
5
Resources /
Inputs
7
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
Outcomes are the specific changes in program
participants’ behavior, knowledge, skills, status,
and level of functioning. Short-term outcomes
should be attainable within 1-3 years, while midtem outcomes should be achievable within 4-6
years.
Sources: W.K. Kellogg Foundation,
University of Wisconsin Extension Service
The Logic Model
Components of the Logic Model
2
Priorities
Situation
1
9
6
Resources /
Inputs
7
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
Impact (sometimes referred to as long-term outcomes) is
the fundamental intended or unintended change
occurring in organizations, communities, or systems as a
result of program activities within 7 – 10 years. Impact
often occurs after the conclusion of project funding.
Sources: W.K. Kellogg Foundation,
University of Wisconsin Extension Service
The Logic Model
Components of the Logic Model
2
Priorities
Situation
1
9
7
Resources /
Inputs
7
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
Assumptions are the principles, beliefs, theories,
and ideas you hold about why and how the
identified change strategies will work in your
situation.
Sources: W.K. Kellogg Foundation,
University of Wisconsin Extension Service
The Logic Model
Components of the Logic Model
2
Priorities
Situation
1
9
8
Resources /
Inputs
7
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
External Factors involve the potential barriers and /
or supports that are outside the control of your
program and might impact the change your
program intends to deliver. These often include
aspects of power, policy, and environmental flux.
Sources: W.K. Kellogg Foundation,
University of Wisconsin Extension Service
The Logic Model
Components of the Logic Model
2
Priorities
Situation
1
9
9
Resources /
Inputs
7
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
Evaluation underlies the entire logic model by
illustrating the audiences, priorities and objectives
of your program for each of the key focus areas.
These form the foundation for your evaluation
questions and indicators.
Sources: W.K. Kellogg Foundation,
University of Wisconsin Extension Service
The Logic Model
1
2
This is the situation.
3
If you have access to them, then you can use them to accomplish your planned
activities.
4
5
If you accomplish your planned activities, then you will hopefully deliver the amount of
product and/or service that you intended.
6
If these benefits to participants are achieved, then certain changes in organizations,
communities, or systems might be expected to occur.
7
Certain assumptions have influenced the plan of work.
8
Certain external factors will influence the intended results.
9
Evaluation will help this program analyze and interpret results and enable informed and
logical program evolution.
Certain resources are needed to operate your program.
How to
Read a
Logic
Model
If you accomplish your planned activities to the extent you intended, then your
participants will benefit in certain ways.
The Logic Model
9
2
Priorities
Situation
1
3
Resources /
Inputs
7
5
4
Activities
Assumptions
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
Source: W.K. Kellogg Foundation
The Logic Model
Is a Logic Model an Action Plan? NO.
• An action plan is a
manager’s guide for
running the project.
• It shows the program
objectives and a
timeline or task
outline of what must
be done to
implement the
project
• Having an action
plan increases the
probability that the
project will be
implemented in an
effective manner.
• A logic model shows
the presumed effects
of the project.
• These hypotheses are
described in the logic
model, tested in a
theory-based
evaluation, and lead
to lessons learned.
• Having a Logic Model
increases the
probability that the
project will lead to
further learning.
The Logic Model
• Who should use a project’s Logic
Model? All parties involved in the
initiative:
– Initiating organization’s board
members & top administrators
– Initiative leaders & staff
– Participating organizations
– Evaluators
– Prospective & Existing Funders
– Legislators
– Stakeholders
– Others seeking to understand work
Linking it All Together
Problem Analysis
Stakeholder Analysis
Situation
Needs & Assets
Cause & Effect
Underlying
Constraints
Assumptions
Priorities
Inputs
Activities
Outputs
Outcomes
External Factors
Resources / Inputs
Opportunity Analysis
Strategic Alternative Analysis
Activities
Outputs
Outcomes
Impact
Assumptions
External Factors
Situation
Priorities
Linking it All Together
Opportunity Analysis
Impact
Mid-term
Outcomes
Short-term
Outcomes
Resources,
Activities &
Outputs
Source: AusAID, 2005
Linking it All Together
Situation
Priorities
1
One sentence summarizing the strategic situation addressed by your project.
Should consider needs, assets, symptoms versus problems, and stakeholder
engagement. Should reflect priorities and relate to the intended impact.
2
Resources /
Inputs
What is invested:
Human,
financial,
Organizational,
& community
resources
directed toward
the project.
7
3
4
6
Activities
Outputs
Outcomes
Impact
Processes, tools,
events,
interventions,
technology, and
actions that are
an intentional
part of your
program.
Direct products
of program
activities:
participation,
clients, partners,
satisfaction,
reach, $ savings
or earned.
Short-term (1-3 yrs):
Long-term
Outcomes
(7-10 yrs):
Changes to
Social,
Economic, Civic,
or Environmental
Conditions
Assumptions
Key assumptions which underlie your
planned work (may change over
time).
9
5
8
learning, awareness,
knowledge,
attitudes, skills,
opinions, aspirations,
motivations
Mid-term (4-6 yrs):
Action, Behavior,
Practice, Decisionmaking, Policies,
Social Action
External Factors
Primary external factors (beyond your control) which may affect
your expected results (Could be positive or negative effects).
Evaluation
One to two sentences which explain what the focus of evaluation will be, how, what, and when you will
collect data, how and when you will analyze data, how and when you will interpret results (indicators), and
how and when you will report.
Linking it All Together
• Writing Good Outcomes
–
–
–
–
–
Specific
Measurable
Attainable
Results-Oriented
Timed
Examples:
• Families
participating in the
Family Resource
Center will increase
their use of
community
resources and
services within one
year of joining.
• Four school boards
will adopt policies
to improve student
nutrition and
physical activity by
December 2005.
• Information
provided by the
Health Report Card
is used to make
community health
decisions.
Linking it All Together – An Example
Situation
Priorities
1
Funder requires grantees to include a logic model in funding request; grantees
have limited understanding of logic models and are unable to fulfill the funding
requirement.
2
Resources /
Inputs
•
•
•
•
•
Trainer
Budget
Equipment
Research Base
Training
Curriculum
7
3
Activities
• 3-hour
training
program
• Interactive
Activities
• Group Work
• Practice
• Q&A
Assumptions
• Logic models improve planning,
results, and evaluation.
9
4
5
6
Outputs
Outcomes
Impact
• Participation
by 25
potential
grantees
• Increased knowledge of
logic models
• Increased ability to
create a meaningful
logic model of a
program
• Increased confidence in
using logic models
• Use of logic models in
project planning and
evaluation
• Improved
planning –
programs
achieve more
positive results
• Improved
evaluation –
more credible
and useful data
8
External Factors
Weather, Participant Availability, Turnover, Capabilities
Evaluation
Evaluation will focus on measuring changes in logic model knowledge, changes in confidence levels, and
the ability to create meaningful program logic models. Data will be collected prior to the training, in the
form of a questionnaire and three months after the training session, in a follow-up questionnaire.
Additionally, logic models submitted by grantees will be evaluated for evidence of improved planning skills
and reporting will be required by grantees in terms of their use of logic models throughout the duration of
projects and the affect this tool has had on project success.
Linking it All Together
• Strengths of the Logic Model Approach:
– Provide a logical link between means and
ends.
– Place activity within broader development
environment.
– Encourage examination of risks.
– Require an analysis of whether objectives are
measurable
– Help establish a monitoring and evaluation
framework.
– Link problem analysis to objective setting.
– Visually accessible and relatively easy to
understand.
– Can be applied in a participatory way.
Linking it All Together
• Common Problems of the Logic Model
Assessment and Approach
– Getting consensus on objectives
– Reducing objectives to a simple linear chain
– Inappropriate level of detail (too much or too
little)
– Finding measurable indicators for higher level
objectives and ‘social’ projects
– Establishing unrealistic targets too early
– Prepared too late and mechanistically
– Problem analysis and objective setting not
always linked
– Risks marginalized.
– High demands for training and judgment
Linking it All Together
• Possible dangers of the Logic Model
Approach:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Oversimplification of objective.
Objectives become too rigid (blueprint).
Ignoring unintended effects.
Hides disagreement.
Downgrading of less quantified objectives
Rigid targets
Information overload
The same fixed format applied in all cases
Used for top-down control
Can alienate staff
Becomes a fetish rather than a help.
Today’s Discussion – A Review
The
Context
Logical
Framework
Approach
The Logic
Model
Linking it All
Together
With the context in place…
The Logic Model
2
Priorities
Situation
1
9
3
Resources /
Inputs
7
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
Your Planned Work
6
Outcomes
Impact
External Factors
Your Intended Results
Evaluation
…does it make more sense?
References
AusAID. (2005). The Logical Framework Approach. Australia: Australian Agency for International Development.
Baker, J.; Goeke, M.L.; Greenway, M.T.; Gregson, R.; Julian, D.; Lewis, K.; Peterson, E.; Pritchard, K.; Terry, B.L.; Von
Brock, A.; Watanabe, D.; & Weinschrott, D. (1999). Achieving and Measuring Community Outcomes:
Challenges, Issues, Some Approaches. Washington D.C.: United Way of America.
Hinchcliff, G. (2004). Logic Model Development. Silver Spring, MD: Coastal Learning Services – NOAA Coastal
Learning Center.
Hvidt, M. (1987). Project Aid: The Project as a Medium for Transfer of Aid to Rural Areas of the Third World. University
of Aarhus, 1987.
IFAD (2002). Managing for Impact in Rural Development: A Guide for Project M&E – Annotated Example of a Project
Logframe Matrix. Rome: International Fund for Agricultural Development.
McCawley, P.F. (2001). The Logic Model for Program Planning and Evaluation. University of Idaho Extension.
McNamara, C. (1997). Guidelines and Framework for Designing Basic Logic Model. Authenticity Consulting, LLC.
Mikkelsen, B. (2005). Methods for Development Work and Research: A New Guide for Practicioners. 2nd Ed. New
Delhi: SAGE Publications.
Mosse, R.; Sontheimer, L.E.; & Rogers, P. (1996). Performance Monitoring Indicators: A handbook for task managers.
World Bank: Operations Policy Department. Washington D.C.
NORAD. (1999). The Logical Framework Approach (LFA). Handbook for Objectives-oriented Project Planning. Oslo.
Parsons, B.A. (1999). Making Logic Models More Systemic: An Activity. Boulder, CO: InSites.
Schmitz, C.C. & Parsons, B.A. (1999). Everything You Wanted to Know About Logic Models But Were Afraid to Ask.
Minneapolis: MN: Professional Evaluation Services & Boulder, CO: InSites.
Taylor-Powell, E. (2003). Logic models to enhance program performance. University of Wisconsin Extension.
W.K. Kellogg Foundation. (2004). Using Logic Models to Bring Together Planning, Evaluation, and Action: Logic
Model Development Guide. Battle Creek, MI.
Zimmerman, B.; Lindberg, C.; & Plsek, P. (1998). Edgeware: Lessons from Complexity Science for Health Care
Leaders. Dallas, TX: VHA Inc.
Zimmerman, B.; Lindberg, C.; & Plsek, P. (2001). Alternatives to Logic Models: A brief introduction to Complex
Adaptive Systems. Irvine, TX: VHA Inc.
Questions can be directed to the presenter at: [email protected]
Appendix
Contents: A Logic Model Template
2
Priorities
Situation
1
Resources /
Inputs
7
9
3
4
Activities
Assumptions
5
Outputs
8
6
Outcomes
External Factors
Evaluation
Impact