Download European Scenarios of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Mitigation

European Scenarios of Air Pollution and
Greenhouse Gases Mitigation:
Focus on Poland
J. Cofala, M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok,
C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, L. Hoeglund-Isaksson,
P. Rafaj, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter, F. Wagner
Atmospheric Pollution and Economic Development
(APD) Programme
Outline
• European air pollution policy process
• Methodology of integrated assessment modeling
• Revision of the National Emission Ceilings (NEC)
Directive and links to the EU climate policy
• Results for Poland
Air pollution control policy in Europe
• UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air
Pollution
– 2008: Gothenburg Protocol under review
• EU level, recent developments:
– 2003: Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) Programme established
– 2005: EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP)
proposed
– 2008: Revision of the NEC Directive based on targets from
TSAP
The RAINS approach
for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies
IIASA’s RAINS
optimization model
PM
Health
SO2
Eutrophication
NH3
NOx
Acidification
Policy targets on air quality
VOC
Ozone
The GAINS approach
for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies
(GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies )
IIASA’s GAINS
optimization model
PM
Health
SO2
Eutrophication
NH3
NOx
Acidification
Policy targets on air quality
VOC
Ozone
GHGs
Policy
target on
GHG
emissions
NEC revision process
• Several scenarios for 2020 analyzed
• IIASA calculated
– Ceilings for air pollutants
– Impact indicators
– Control costs
• Bilateral consultations with Member States
• Interim results presented to expert groups
• Final scenarios ready, currently discussed within the
Commission
• Proposal for the revised NEC Directive expected
soon
Activity scenarios for NEC analysis
• Climate and Energy Package (C&E):
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
minus 20 % GHG, access to CDM
20 % renewable energy target
continuation of the ETS system
targets for non-ETS sectors
reductions of non-CO2 GHG based on GAINS analysis
energy demand and CO2 reduction – PRIMES energy model
agriculture – national scenarios
• Sensitivities:
– PRIMES Baseline (continuation of the ETS system)
– National energy scenarios
Cost curves for non-CO2 GHG for 2020 – an
example
100
90
Marginal costs, Euro/t CO2eq
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
Emissions relative to 2005
CH4
N2O
F-gases
Total non-CO2
c
n
f
t
Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic
sources of PM2.5, months
2020 (4.2 months)
2000 (8 months)
Forest area with acid deposition above critical
loads, %
2020 (3% of total)
2000 (19 % of total)
Poland: Non-ETS GHG emissions in 2020
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2005
Baseline
CO2
C&E Package
Non CO2
Source: EC, DG ENV
Poland: “current policy” emissions of air pollutants
1600
1400
kilotons/year
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
SO2
NOx
PM2.5
NH3
2000
2020 National
2020 PRIMES Baseline
2020 PRIMES C&E Package
NMVOC
To achieve Thematic Strategy targets, emissions need to be further
reduced by 5-20 % of 2000 level
Poland: Environmental effects of the NEC scenario
Loss of life expectancy due to exposure to
particulate matter
Area of forest ecosystems where acid
deposition exceeds the critical loads for
acidification
Premature mortality from ozone
Unit
2000
Improvement
months
10
45%
%
60
97%
Number of cases
1350
20%
Concluding remarks
• Revision of European air pollution control legislation will
bring substantial environmental benefits
• European level research does not replace national
assessment
• Exchange of information between European and national
models facilitated through NIAM network
• IIASA will be happy to share the experience with Polish
modellers
More information:
www.iiasa.ac.at/rains