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European Scenarios of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Mitigation: Focus on Poland J. Cofala, M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, L. Hoeglund-Isaksson, P. Rafaj, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter, F. Wagner Atmospheric Pollution and Economic Development (APD) Programme Outline • European air pollution policy process • Methodology of integrated assessment modeling • Revision of the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive and links to the EU climate policy • Results for Poland Air pollution control policy in Europe • UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution – 2008: Gothenburg Protocol under review • EU level, recent developments: – 2003: Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) Programme established – 2005: EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP) proposed – 2008: Revision of the NEC Directive based on targets from TSAP The RAINS approach for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies IIASA’s RAINS optimization model PM Health SO2 Eutrophication NH3 NOx Acidification Policy targets on air quality VOC Ozone The GAINS approach for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies (GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies ) IIASA’s GAINS optimization model PM Health SO2 Eutrophication NH3 NOx Acidification Policy targets on air quality VOC Ozone GHGs Policy target on GHG emissions NEC revision process • Several scenarios for 2020 analyzed • IIASA calculated – Ceilings for air pollutants – Impact indicators – Control costs • Bilateral consultations with Member States • Interim results presented to expert groups • Final scenarios ready, currently discussed within the Commission • Proposal for the revised NEC Directive expected soon Activity scenarios for NEC analysis • Climate and Energy Package (C&E): – – – – – – – minus 20 % GHG, access to CDM 20 % renewable energy target continuation of the ETS system targets for non-ETS sectors reductions of non-CO2 GHG based on GAINS analysis energy demand and CO2 reduction – PRIMES energy model agriculture – national scenarios • Sensitivities: – PRIMES Baseline (continuation of the ETS system) – National energy scenarios Cost curves for non-CO2 GHG for 2020 – an example 100 90 Marginal costs, Euro/t CO2eq 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% Emissions relative to 2005 CH4 N2O F-gases Total non-CO2 c n f t Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic sources of PM2.5, months 2020 (4.2 months) 2000 (8 months) Forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, % 2020 (3% of total) 2000 (19 % of total) Poland: Non-ETS GHG emissions in 2020 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2005 Baseline CO2 C&E Package Non CO2 Source: EC, DG ENV Poland: “current policy” emissions of air pollutants 1600 1400 kilotons/year 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 2000 2020 National 2020 PRIMES Baseline 2020 PRIMES C&E Package NMVOC To achieve Thematic Strategy targets, emissions need to be further reduced by 5-20 % of 2000 level Poland: Environmental effects of the NEC scenario Loss of life expectancy due to exposure to particulate matter Area of forest ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification Premature mortality from ozone Unit 2000 Improvement months 10 45% % 60 97% Number of cases 1350 20% Concluding remarks • Revision of European air pollution control legislation will bring substantial environmental benefits • European level research does not replace national assessment • Exchange of information between European and national models facilitated through NIAM network • IIASA will be happy to share the experience with Polish modellers More information: www.iiasa.ac.at/rains