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Expert Systems with Applications 28 (2005) 93–103 www.elsevier.com/locate/eswa Expert system methodologies and applications—a decade review from 1995 to 2004 Shu-Hsien Liao* Department of Management Sciences and Decision Making, Tamkang University, No. 151, Yingjuan Rd, Danshuei Jen, Taipei 251, Taiwan, ROC Abstract This paper surveys expert systems (ES) development using a literature review and classification of articles from 1995 to 2004 with a keyword index and article abstract in order to explore how ES methodologies and applications have developed during this period. Based on the scope of 166 articles from 78 academic journals (retrieved from five online database) of ES applications, this paper surveys and classifies ES methodologies using the following eleven categories: rule-based systems, knowledge-based systems, neural networks, fuzzy ESs, objectoriented methodology, case-based reasoning, system architecture, intelligent agent systems, database methodology, modeling, and ontology together with their applications for different research and problem domains. Discussion is presented, indicating the followings future development directions for ES methodologies and applications: (1) ES methodologies are tending to develop towards expertise orientation and ES applications development is a problem-oriented domain. (2) It is suggested that different social science methodologies, such as psychology, cognitive science, and human behavior could implement ES as another kind of methodology. (3) The ability to continually change and obtain new understanding is the driving power of ES methodologies, and should be the ES application of future works. q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Expert systems; Expert system methodologies; Expert system applications; Literature survey 1. Introduction Expert systems (ES) are a branch of applied artificial intelligence (AI), and were developed by the AI community in the mid-1960s. The basic idea behind ES is simply that expertise, which is the vast body of task-specific knowledge, is transferred from a human to a computer. This knowledge is then stored in the computer and users call upon the computer for specific advice as needed. The computer can make inferences and arrive at a specific conclusion. Then like a human consultant, it gives advices and explains, if necessary, the logic behind the advice (Turban & Aronson, 2001). ES provide powerful and flexible means for obtaining solutions to a variety of problems that often cannot be dealt with by other, more traditional and orthodox methods. Thus, their use is proliferating to many sectors of our social and technological life, where their applications * Tel.: C886-2947-2044; fax: C886-2945-3007. E-mail address: [email protected]. 0957-4174/$ - see front matter q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2004.08.003 are proving to be critical in the process of decision support and problem solving. As a part of ES research, this paper surveys the development of ES through a literature review and classification of articles from 1995 to 2004 as a basis, exploring the ES methodologies and applications during that period. The reason for choosing this period is that the Internet was opened to general users in 1994 and this new era of information and communication technology has played important roles, not only in the field of ES, but also in the ability to collect data from online database. This literature survey started on March 2003 and it was based on a search in the keyword index and article abstract for ‘ES’ on the Elsevier SDOS, IEEE Xplore, EBSCO (electronic journal service), Ingenta, and Wiley InterScience online database, for the period from 1995 to 2004, in which 10,439 articles were updated and found on June 2004. After topic filtering, there were 166 articles from 78 journals related to the keyword ‘ES applications’, 98 of which were connected to the methodology of keyword ‘ES methodology’. Based on the scope of 166 articles on ES applications, this paper surveys and classifies ES methodologies using eleven 94 S.-H. Liao / Expert Systems with Applications 28 (2005) 93–103 categories: rule-based systems, knowledge-based systems, neural networks, fuzzy ESs, object-oriented methodology, case-based reasoning (CBR), system architecture development, intelligent agent (IA) systems, modeling, ontology, and database methodology together with their applications for different research and problem domains. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Sections 2–12 present the survey results of ES methodologies and applications based on the above categories, respectively. Section 13 presents some discussion, extending to suggestions for future development of ES methodologies and applications. Finally, Section 14 contains a brief conclusion. 2. Rule-based systems and their applications A rule-based ES is defined as one, which contains information obtained from a human expert, and represents that information in the form of rules, such as IF–THEN. The rule can then be used to perform operations on data to inference in order to reach appropriate conclusion. These inferences are essentially a computer program that provides a methodology for reasoning about information in the rule base or knowledge base, and for formulating conclusions. Applications of rule-based systems on ESs are including: state transition analysis, psychiatric treatment, production planning, advisory system, teaching, electronic power planning, automobile process planning, hypergraph representation, system development, knowledge verification/ validation, alcohol production, DNA histogram interpretation, knowledge base maintenance, scheduling strategy, management fraud assessment, knowledge acquisition, knowledge representation, communication system fault diagnosis, bioseparation, material processing design, resource utilization, biochemical nanotechnology, probabilistic fault diagnosis, agriculture planning, load scheduling, apiculture, tutoring system, geoscience, and sensor control. The methodology of rule-based systems and their applications are categorized in Table 1. 3. Knowledge-based systems and their applications The most common definition of KBS is human-centered. This highlights the fact that KBS have their roots in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and that they are attempts to understand and initiate human knowledge in computer systems (Wiig, 1994). The four main components of KBS are usually distinguished as: a knowledge base, an inference engine, a knowledge engineering tool, and a specific user interface (Dhaliwal & Benbasat, 1996). On the other hand, the term KBS includes all the organizational information technology applications that may prove helpful to manage the knowledge assets of an organization, such as ESs, rulebased systems, groupware, and database management systems (DBMS) (Laudon & Laudon, 2002). Table 1 Rule-based systems and their applications Rule-based systems/applications Authors State transition analysis Psychiatric treatment Production planning Advisory system Teaching Electronic power planning Automobile process planning Hypergraph representation System development Knowledge verification/validation Alcohol production DNA histogram interpretation Ilgun, Kemmerer, and Porras (1995) Goethe and Bronzino (1995) Hamada, Baba, Sato, and Yufu (1995) Kose et al. (1995) Chan, Ma, Chan, and Chen (1995) Rahman and Hazim (1996) Sabourin and Villeneuve (1996) Ramaswamy, Sarkar, and Chen (1997) Mulvaney and Bristow (1997) Wu and Lee (1997) Knowledge base maintenance Scheduling strategy Management fraud assessment Knowledge acquisition Communication system fault diagnosis Bioseparation Material processing design Resource utilization Biochemical nanotechnology Probabilistic fault diagnosis Agriculture planning Load scheduling Apiculture Agricultural diagnostic/advisory Geoscience Sensor control Tutoring system Knowledge representation Guerreiro et al. (1997) Marchevsky, Truong, and Tolmachoff (1997) Higa and Lee (1998) Zupan and Cheng (1998) Deshmukh and Talluru (1998) Wu and Chen (1999) Leon, Mejias, Luque, and Gonzalo (1999) Lienqueo, Salgado, and Asenjo (1999) Kim and Im (1999) McCoy and Levary (2000) Wasiewicz, Janczak, Mulawka, and Plucienniczak (2000) Leung and Romagnoli (2000) Plant and Vayssieres (2000) Croce et al. (2001) Mahaman et al. (2002) Mahaman, Passam, Sideridis, and Yialouris (2003) Soh, Tsatsoulis, Gineris, and Bertoia (2004) Valenzuela, Bentley, and Lorenz (2004) Hatzilygeroudis and Prentzas (2004) Hatzilygeroudis and Prentzas (2004) Some of these applications which are implemented by knowledge-based systems include the following: medical treatment, personal finance planning, engineering failure analysis, waste management, production management, thermal engineering, decision support, knowledge management, knowledge representation, power electronics design, framed buildings evaluation, financial analysis, chemical incident management, automatic tumor segmentation, business game, climate forecasting, agricultural management, steel composition design, strategic management, environmental protection, wastewater treatment, decision making and learning, isokinetics interpretation, chemical process controlling, therapy planning, plant process control, outage locating planning, concurrent system design, case validation, chip design, agriculture planning, power transmission protection, crop production planning, tropospheric chemistry modeling, planar robots, and urban design. The methodology of knowledge-based systems and their applications are categorized in Table 2. S.-H. Liao / Expert Systems with Applications 28 (2005) 93–103 95 Table 2 Knowledge-based systems and their applications Table 3 Neural networks and their applications Knowledge-based systems/ applications Authors Neural networks/applications Authors Fault diagnosis Medical treatment Alonso-Amo, Perez, Gomez, and Montes (1995) Dirks, Kingston, and Haggith (1995) Graham-Jones and Mwllor (1995) Wei and Weber (1996) Dawood (1996) Afgan and Carvalho (1996) Keefe and Preece (1996) Dutta (1997) Mitra and Basu (1997) Lu and Simmonds (1997) Fezzani, Piquet, and Foch (1997) Matsatsinis, Doumpos, and Zopounidis (1997) Finch and Lees (1997) Clark et al. (1998) Duan, Edwards, and Robins (1998) Rodionov and Martin (1999) Girard and Hubert (1999) Manohar, Shivathaya, and Ferry (1999) Volberda and Rutges (1999) Gomolka and Orlowski (2000) Baeza, Ferreira, and Laufuente (2000) Mockler, Dologite, and Gartenfeld (2000) Alonso, Fuertes, Martinez, and Montes (2000) Barrera-Cortes, Astruc, and Tufeu (2001) Tunez, Aguila, and Marin (2001) Acosta, Gonzalez, and Pulido (2001) Liu and Schulz (2002) Mills and Gomaa (2002) Knauf, Gonzalez, and Abel (2002) Bourbakis, Mogzadeh, Mertoguno, and Koutsougeras (2002) Cohen and Shoshany (2002) Orduna, Garces, and Handschin (2003) Edrees, Rafea, Fathy, and Yahia (2003) Saunders, Pascoe, Johnson, Pilling, and Jenkin (2003) Xirogiannis, Stefanou, and Glykas (2004) Sen, Minambres, Garrido, Almansa, and Soto (2004) Wang, Qu, Liu, and Cheng (2004), Yang, Han, and Kim, (2004) Personal finance planning Engineering failure analysis Waste management Production management Thermal engineering Decision support Knowledge management Knowledge representation Framed buildings evaluation Power electronics design Financial analysis Chemical incident management Automatic tumor segmentation Business game Climate forecasting Agricultural management Steel composition design Strategic management Environmental protection Wastewater treatment Decision making and learning Isokinetics interpretation Chemical process controlling Physical therapy planning Plant process control Outage locating planning Concurrent system design Case validation Chip design Agricultural planning Power transmission protection Crop production planning Tropospheric chemistry modeling Urban design Planar robots 4. Neural networks and their applications An artificial neural network (ANN) is a model that emulates a biological neural network. This concept is used to implement software simulations for the massively parallel processes that involve processing elements interconnected in network architecture. The artificial neuron receives inputs that are analogous to the electrochemical impulses that the dendrites of biological neurons receive from other neurons. The output of the artificial neuron corresponds to signals sent out from a biological neuron Optimal power flow Decision making Alarm processing system Inference mechanisms Diagnostic system Machine learning Power load forecasting Facility layout design Process control Knowledge learning Gold mining process design Robotic systems Parameter setting Waste treatment Biomedical application Mitigation processes control Engineering ceramics Acoustic signal diagnosing Crude oil distillation Fu (1998) Li, Tasi, Tasi, and Chiu (2004) Liau et al. (2004) over its axon. These artificial signals can be changed similarly to the physical changes occurring at neural synapses (Turban & Aronson, 2001). Some of the applications that are implemented by neural networks are the following: fault diagnosis, optimal power flow, decision making, alarm processing system, inference mechanisms, diagnostic system, machine learning, power load forecasting, facility layout design, process control, knowledge learning, gold mining process design, robotic systems, parameter setting, waste treatment, engineering ceramics, mitigation processes control, acoustic signal diagnosing, crude oil distillation, and biomedical application. The methodology of neural networks and their applications are categorized in Table 3. 5. Fuzzy expert systems and their applications Fuzzy ESs are developed using the method of fuzzy logic, which deals with uncertainty. This technique, which uses the mathematical theory of fuzzy sets, simulates the process of normal human reasoning by allowing the computer to behave less precisely and logically than conventional computers. This approach is used because decision-making is not always a matter of black and white, true or false; it often involves gray areas and the term may be. Accordingly, creative decision-making processes can be characterized unstructured, playful, contentious, and rambling (Jamshidi, Titli, Zadeh, & Boverie 1997). Some applications implemented by fuzzy ESs are such as: power load forecasting, online scheduling, chemical 96 S.-H. Liao / Expert Systems with Applications 28 (2005) 93–103 Table 4 Fuzzy expert systems and their applications Table 5 Object-oriented methodology and their applications Fuzzy expert systems/ applications Authors Object-oriented methodology/ applications Authors Power load forecasting Online scheduling Chemical process fault diagnosis Ecological planning Power system diagnosis Control systems Uncertainly reasoning Knowledge integration Fault diagnosis Kim, Park, Hwang, and Kim (1995) Chang and Thia (1996) Ozyurt and Kandel (1996) Zhu, Band, Dutton, and Nimlos (1996) Cho and Park (1997) Bugarin and Barro (1998) Pan, DeSouza, and Kak (1998) Lee, Han, Song, and Lee (1998) Lee et al. (2000) and Soliman, Rizzoni, and Kim (1999) Dash, Mishra, Salama, and Liew (2000) EI-Shal and Morris (2000) Benson and Asgarpoor (2000) Carrasco, Rodriguez, Punal, Roca, and Lema (2004), Punal, Rodriguez, Carrasco, Roca, and Lema (2002), and Punal et al. (2001) Wong and Hamouda (2002, 2003) Mahabir, Hicks, and Fayek (2003) Liao (2003) Leung, Lau, and Kwong (2003) Ngai and Wat (2003) Lababidi and Baker (2003) Meesad and Yen (2003) and Sendelj and Devedzic (2004) Shu and Burn (2004) Boegl, Adlassnig, Hayashi, Rothenfluh, and Leitich (2004) Drigs et al. (2004) Padilla-Medina and Sanchez-Marin (2004) Reznik and Dabke (2004) Frantti and Kallio (2004) Industry diagnosis Knowledge representation Electronic power capacity planning Knowledge learning Power system maintenance Batanov and Cheng (1995) Vranes and Stanojevic (1995) Deb (1995) Menzies (1997) Kawahara, Sasaki, Kubokawa, Asahara, and Sugiyama (1998) Geymayr and Ebecken (1998) Lau, Tso, and Ho (1998) Depradine (2003) Power system classification Fault detection Demand evaluation Wastewater treatment Machinability data selection Water supply forecast Radiography classification On-line analytic processing Hotel selection Dryer tool integration Medical diagnosis Pooled flood frequency analysis Medical consultation system Job matching Performance indexing Computer security Gesture recognition process fault diagnosis, ecological planning, control systems, uncertainly reasoning, knowledge integration, fault diagnosis, power system classification, fault detection, demand evaluation, wastewater treatment, machinability data selection, water supply forecast, radiography classification, on-line analytic processing, hotel selection, dryer tool integration, pooled flood frequency analysis, medical consultation system, job matching, performance indexing, computer security, gesture recognition, and medical diagnosis. The methodology of fuzzy ESs together with their applications is categorized in Table 4. 6. Object-oriented methodology and their applications Object-oriented methodology combines into one object data together with the specific procedures that operate on this data, where the object combines data and program code. Instead of passing data to procedures, programs send a message for an object to perform a procedure that is already embedded in it. Then, the same message may be sent to Knowledge engineering Manufacturing information network Syntactic programming many different objects, but each will implement that message differently. An object’s data are encapsulated from other parts of the system, so each object is an independent software building block that can be used in many different systems without changing the program code. Some applications implemented by object-oriented methodology include the following: industry diagnosis, knowledge learning, manufacturing information network, power system maintenance, knowledge engineering, syntactic programming, and knowledge representation. The methodology of object-oriented methodology and their applications are categorized in Table 5. 7. Case-based reasoning and their applications The basic idea of CBR is to adapt solutions that were used to solve previous problems and use them to solve new problems. In CBR, descriptions of past experience of human specialists, represented as cases, are stored in a database for later retrieval when the user encounters a new case with similar parameters. The system searches for stored cases with problem characteristics similar to the new one, finds the closest fit, and applies the solutions of the old case to the new case. Successful solutions are tagged to the new case and both are stored together with the other cases in the knowledge base. Unsuccessful solutions also are appended to the case base along with explanations as to why the solutions did not work (Kolonder, 1994). Some of the applications implemented by CBR include the following: manufacturing process design, knowledge management, power system restoration training, ultrasonic inspection, medical planning, medical application, fault diagnosis, e-learning, and knowledge modeling. These CBR and their applications are categorized in Table 6. 8. Modeling and their applications Modeling methodology becomes an interdisciplinary methodology of ES in order to build formal relationships with logical model design in different knowledge/problem S.-H. Liao / Expert Systems with Applications 28 (2005) 93–103 97 Table 6 Case-based reasoning and their applications Table 8 System architecture and their applications Case-based reasoning/applications Authors System architecture/applications Authors Manufacturing process design Takahashi, Oono, and Saitog (1995) Noh, Lee, Kim, Lee, and Kim (2000) Islam and Chowdhury (2001) Jarmulak, Kerckhoffs, and Veen (2001) Abidi and Manickam (2002) Montani and Bellazzi (2002) Gardan and Gardan (2003) Yang et al. (2004) Fu and Shen (2004) Material evaluation and selection Computer aided design Mahmoud and AL-Hammad (1996) Tucho, Sierra, Fernandez, Vijande, and Moris (2003) and Vranes and Stanojevic (1999) Gilad and Karni (1999) Khan and Hafiz (1999) Collier, Leech, and Clark (1999) Knowledge management Power system restoration training Ultrasonic inspection Medical planning Medical application Knowledge modeling Fault diagnosis E-learning Ergonomics design ISO system implementation Corporate recovery decision support Concurrent engineering Military application Training simulator Ferryboat configuration Liquid retaining structure design Reidsema and Szczerbicki (2001) Liao (2001) Lopez, Flores, and Garcia (2003) Shaalan, Rizk, Abdelhamid, and Bahgat (2004) Chau and Albermani (2004) domains. Furthermore, modeling technology can provide quantitative methods to analyze data to represent or acquire expert knowledge with inductive logic programming or algorithms so that AI, cognitive science and other research fields could have broader platforms to implement technologies for ES development. The applications implemented by modeling are such as: process control, medical analysis, management decisionmaking, software evaluation, medical system validation, assembly task planning and simulation, transport terminal design, project allocation, and endometrial hyperplasia classification. The methodology of modeling and their applications are categorized in Table 7. architecture design and implementation are completed, users can manipulate and control system functions on the system architecture. Some of the applications implemented by system architecture illustrate the following: material evaluation and selection, computer aided design, ergonomics design, ISO system implementation, corporate recovery decision support, concurrent engineering, military application, training simulator, liquid retaining structure design, and ferryboat configuration. These System architectures and their applications are categorized in Table 8. 9. System architecture and their applications 10. Intelligent agents and their applications System architecture of an ES is similar to an architectural sketch of a house. It gives users a general idea of what the system will look like and how it is going to implement systems. The architecture shows the general capabilities of the system, the users’ interfaces, system functions, system (data) flow, system management, DBMS, necessary protocol, and specific programming language, such as blackboard architecture, CommonKADS, etc. Once the system An IA is a computer program that helps a user with routine computer tasks. This is a new technology, and as such there are several definitions, database capabilities, and different applications in autonomous programs. Several of the names used to describe IAs are include software agents, wizards, and multi-agent (Turban & Aronson, 2001). Some of the applications implemented by IAs are such as: tutoring systems, system analysis and design, electronic service maintenance, carbon contamination rules, knowledge representation, adaptive systems, air pollution control, building architecture design, agricultural decision support, industry simulation, and knowledge engineering on the WWW platform. The methodology of IAs together with their applications is categorized in Table 9. Table 7 Modeling and their applications Modeling/applications Process control Medical analysis Management decision-making Software evaluation Medical system validation Assembly task planning and simulation Endometrial hyperplasia classification Transport terminal design Project allocation Authors Peng, Xiao, Nie, Wang, and Wang (1996) Mookerjee and Mannino (1997) Vlahavas, Stamelos, Refanidis, and Tsoukias (1999) Martin-Baramera et al. (2000) Zha and Lim (2000) Morrison et al. (2002) Abacoumkin and Ballis (2004) Cheung, Hong, and Ang (2004) 11. Ontology and their applications Ontology is a system of vocabulary, which is used as a fundamental concept for describing the task/domain knowledge to be identified. This vocabulary is used as a communication basis between domain experts and knowledge engineers. Accordingly, a reusable task/domain model can be represented and a computer program code is 98 S.-H. Liao / Expert Systems with Applications 28 (2005) 93–103 Table 9 Intelligent agents and their applications Table 11 Database methodology and their applications Intelligent agents/applications Authors Authors Tutoring systems Supply chain Cruces and Arriaga (2000) Gjerdrum, Shah, and Papageorgiou (2001) Gruer, Hilaire, Koukam, and Cetnarowicz (2002) Yu, Iung, and Panetto (2003) Vegh (2003) Qian, Li, Jiang, and Wen (2003) Aldea et al. (2004) Juuso (2004) Zhou, Huang, and Chan (2004) Alibaba and Ozdeniz (2004) Bonstre et al. (2004) Thomson and Willoughby (2004) Shaalan, EI-Badry, and Rafea (2004) Database methodology/ applications Power system planning Geography planning Geographical information system Sedimentary rock interpretation Park and Lee (1995) Kirkby (1996) Filis, Sabrakos, Yialouris, Sideridis, and Mahaman (2003) Abel, Silva, Ros, Mastella, and Campbell (2004) Wang et al. (2004) System analysis and design Electronic service maintenance Carbon contamination rules Knowledge representation Industry simulation Adaptive systems Air pollution control Building architecture design Olive oil automation Agricultural decision support Knowledge engineering on the WWW platform generated in that ontology for knowledge acquisition, reuse, heuristic learning. Some applications implemented by ontology include the following: medical decision support, knowledge reuse, preventive control, landscape assessment, knowledge acquisition, and chess heuristic pruning. These ontology and their applications are categorized in Table 10. Traditional Chinese medicine diagnosis Medical expert system Yan et al. (2004) knowledge from large databases, such as data mining and searching approach. Some applications implemented by database methodology present as the following: power system planning, geography planning, geographical information system, sedimentary rock interpretation, traditional Chinese medicine diagnosis, and medical ES. The methodology of database methodology and their applications are categorized in Table 11. 13. Discussions, limitations, and suggestions 13.1. Discussions 12. Database methodology and their applications A database is a collection of data organized to efficiently serve many applications by centralizing the data and minimizing redundant data (McFadden, Hoffer, & Prescott, 2000). A DBMS is the software that permits an organization to centralize data, manage them efficiently, and provide access to the stored data by application programs (Laudon & Laudon, 2002). However, some large databases make knowledge discovery computationally expensive because some domains or background knowledge, hidden in the database may guide and restrict the search for important knowledge. Therefore, modern database methodologies need to process large volumes, multiple hierarchies, and different data formats to discover in-depth expert Table 10 Ontology and their applications Ontology/applications Authors Medical decision support Tu, Eriksson, Gennari, Shahar, and Musen (1995) Takaoka and Mizoguchi (1996) Thukaram and Parthasarathy (1997) Martinez-Bejar, Ibanez-Cruz, Compton, and Cao (2001) Ruiz-Sanchez, Valencia-Garcia, FernandezBreis, Martinez-Bejar, and Compton (2003) Montani and Bellazzi (2002) Gardan and Gardan 2(003) Knowledge reuse Preventive control Landscape assessment Knowledge acquisition Chess heuristic pruning Knowledge modelling ES methodologies and applications are a broad category of research issues on ES Some specific methodologies and methods are presented as examples for exploring the suggestions and solutions to specific ES problem domains. Therefore, methodologies and applications of ES are attracting much attention and efforts, both academic and practical. From this literature review, we can see that ES methodologies and applications developments are diversified due to their authors’ backgrounds, expertise, and problem domains. This is why some authors can appear in the literature on different methodologies and applications. On the other hand, some methodologies have common concepts, and types of methodology. For example, rulebased systems and knowledge-based systems, or fuzzy logic versus ANN methodology. However, a few authors work in different methodologies and applications. This indicates that the trend of development on methodology is also diversified due to author’s research interests and abilities in the methodology and problem domain. This may indicate that the development of ES methodologies is directed toward expertise orientation. Furthermore, some applications have a high degree of overlap in different methodologies. For example, teaching/ training, knowledge acquisition, knowledge representation, knowledge learning, fault diagnosis/detection, medical applications, production planning, system design/development, modeling, process control, decision S.-H. Liao / Expert Systems with Applications 28 (2005) 93–103 making, waste treatment, resource management, biomedical application, robotic systems, forecasting, ecological planning, agriculture planning, geoscience, power system planning, chemical application, industry planning, management issues, and knowledge reuse, are all topics of different methodologies, which implement ES in a common problem domain. This indicates that those applications are the major trend of ES development, and many methodologies focus on these problems. This may direct development of ES applications toward problem domain orientation. In this paper, most of the articles discussed were from different categories including agriculture, agronomy, automation, biochemistry, biology, chemistry, computer science, biology, ecology, education, energy, engineering, entomology, environmental sciences, genetics, geochemistry, geology, geosciences, health care sciences, hematology, hydrology, materials, mathematics, mechanics, medical, military, operation research/management sciences, ontology, plant science, remote sensing, robotics, and water resources, which retrieved from Elsevier SDOS, IEEE Xplore, EBSCO (electronic journal service), Ingenta, and Wiley InterScience online database. We do not conclude that ES methodologies and applications are not developed in other science fields. However, we would like to see more ES methodologies and applications of different research fields published in order to broaden our horizon of academic and practice works on ES. 13.2. Limitations Firstly, a literature review for the broad category of ES methodologies and applications is a difficult task due to the extensive background knowledge needed for collecting, studying, and classifying these articles. Although limited in background knowledge, this paper makes a brief literature review of ES from 1995 to 2004 in order to explore how ES methodologies and applications have developed in this period. Indeed, the categorization of methodologies and their applications is based on the keyword index and article abstract in this research. Some other articles may have implemented similar ES methodologies in their applications without an ES index, so this paper might not find these reference sources. Therefore, the first limitation of this article is the author’s limited knowledge in presenting an overall picture of this subject. Secondly, although 166 articles from 78 academic journals (five online databases) cited in this paper, there are other academic journals listed in the science citation index (SCI) engineering index (EI), and the social science citation index (SSCI), as well as other academic journals/ magazines, practical articles and reports are not included in this survey. These would have provided more complete information to explore the development of ES methodologies and applications. Thirdly, non-English publications are not considered in this survey to determine the effects of different cultures on 99 the development of ES methodologies and applications. We believe that ES methodologies and applications in addition to those discussed in this article have also been developed and published in other areas and languages. 13.3. Suggestions (1) Other social science methodologies. In this article, the definition of ES methodology is not complete because other methodologies, such as social science methodologies, were not included in the survey. However, qualitative questionnaires and statistical methods are another research technology to solve problems in social studies. For example, cognitive science, psychology and human behavior are used to implement different methods for exploring specific human expert problem. Therefore, other social sciences methodologies may include ES methodology categories in future works. (2) Integration of methodologies. ES is an interdisciplinary research topic. Thus, future ES developments need integration with different methodologies, and this integration of methodologies and cross-interdisciplinary research may offer more technologies to investigate ES problems. (3) Change is a source of future ES development. The change due to social and technical reasons may either enable or inhibit ES methodologies and application development. This means that inertia, stemming from the use of routine problem solving procedures, stagnant knowledge sources, and following past experience or knowledge may impede changes in terms of learning and innovation for individuals and organizations. Therefore, to continue creating, sharing, learning, and storing knowledge on different methodologies and application domains may also become a source of ES development. 14. Conclusions This paper is based on a literature review of ES methodologies and applications from 1995 to 2004 using a keyword index and article title search. We conclude that ES methodologies are tending to develop towards expertise orientation and that ES applications development is a problem-oriented domain. It is suggested that different social science methodologies, such as psychology, cognitive science, and human behavior could implement ES as another kind of methodology. Integration of qualitative, quantitative and scientific methods and integration of ES methodologies studies may broaden our horizon on this subject. Finally, the ability to continually change and obtain new understanding is the power of ES methodologies, and will be the ES application of future works. 100 S.-H. Liao / Expert Systems with Applications 28 (2005) 93–103 References Abacoumkin, C., & Ballis, A. (2004). Development of an expert system for the evaluation of conventional and innovative technologies in the intermodal transport area. European Journal of Operational Research, 152, 410–419. Abel, M., Silva, A. L., Ros, L. F., Mastella, L. S., & Campbell, J. A. (2004). PetroGrapher: managing petrographic data and knowledge using an intelligent database application. Expert Systems with Applications, 26, 9–18. Abidi, S. S. R., & Manickam, S. (2002). Leveraging XML-based electronic medical records to extract experiential clinical knowledge. 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