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2017 IWA Symposium of Lake and Reservoir Management Shanghai, China, 22-26 May, 2017 Understanding of Harmful Algal Bloom Dynamics with an Integrated Modeling Approach in Tropical Water Bodies Jingjie Zhang1*, Gerard Pijcke1, Wang Xuan1 , Vladan Babovic1, Karina Yew-Hoong Gin1, Hans Los2, Tineke Troost2 , Wai Sum Chan3, Yanna Zhou3, Manh-Tuan Nguyen3 1Department 2Deltares, 3PUB, of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, 117577, Singapore P.O. Box 177,2600 MH Delft,The Netherlands Singapore’s National Water Agency, 40 Scotts Road #22-01, Environment Building Singapore 228231 Presenting Author: Karina Yew-Hong Gin Keywords: Harmful Algal Bloom; Integrated Modeling; Species composition and adaptation Introduction Harmful algal blooms may be driven by chemical, biological and physical factors or their combined influence. To address the dynamics and mechanisms of the algal blooms, ecological and environmental models are considered very useful in the assessment of changes in water quality influenced by external environmental conditions and effective restoration of aquatic ecosystems (Gurkan et al., 2006). However, traditional eutrophication models may only focus on one or another aspect without considering species competition and adaptation to the prevailing environmental conditions and catchment-scale assessment, which are critical to better understanding the phenomenon of phytoplankton dynamics. In this paper, we present an integrated modelling approach based on Delft3D Water Quality modelling suite incorporating with BLOOM modeling (Los 2009) and applied it to study harmful algal bloom dynamics in tropical water bodies in Singapore. The BLOOM model is based on optimizing phytoplankton biomass under consideration of environmental constraints where species most adaptable to environmental change will have higher biomass and finally become dominant species. The BLOOM model was first calibrated and validated against observations, and then employed to explore possible mechanisms of algal blooms and changes in phytoplankton species composition driven by changes in land use and other environmental forcing functions. Our results show that the integrated modeling approach can describe species dynamics and show changes in species adaptation under different environmental conditions in tropical urban water bodies. Materials and Methods The modelling framework consists of integrating six models and combined with BLOOM modeling, which was characterized by experiments in consideration of the tropical environmental condition as indicated in Figure 1. The schematic shows the integration of models that provide input to other models and respective input data needed for each model. Figure 1 Integrated modelling framework for studying harmful algal bloom dynamics 1 2017 IWA Symposium of Lake and Reservoir Management Shanghai, China, 22-26 May, 2017 8 phytoplankton species (groups) including Freshwater Diatoms (including Synedra), Green algae (including Ankistrodesmus and Cosmarium), and 6 representative groups of Cyanobacteria (Microcystis, Pseudanabaena, Cylindrospermopsis, Arthrospira, Planktothrix and Planktolyngbya) were selected based on the observed abundance and estimated biomass in the reservoirs. In order to characterize algal species in the tropical area, eco-physiological parameters (e.g. maximum growth rates, mortality and respiration rates) of representative cyanobacteria from both literature and experiments were used and included in the BLOOM model. Results and Discussion Figure 2 demonstrates how phytoplankton species composition was influenced by changes in environmental conditions and species characteristics. Water Body 1 was mainly limited by phosphorus, nitrogen and followed by light and growth whereas Water Body 2 was less influenced by nitrogen as relatively high concentrations of nitrogen were observed in this system. This difference resulted in Cylindrospermopsis as the dominant species followed by Pseudanabaena and Diatoms in Water Body 1 while Water Body 2 was mainly dominated by Pseudanabaena, followed by Cylindrospermopsis and green algae. The difference in dominant species in the two water bodies may be attributed to Cylindrospermopsis being a better competitor with increasing nitrogen limitation as it can fix nitrogen from the atmosphere compared to Pseudanabaena. Figure 2 Influence of environmental condition on phytoplankton composition and competition Conclusions Changes in environmental conditions can result in changes in phytoplankton species community structure and composition. A catchment-scale modeling approach can predict dominant species and describe temporal-spatial dynamics of species in the aquatic ecosystems. References Gurkan, Z., Zhang, J.J., Jorgensen, S.E., 2006. Development of a structurally dynamic model for forecasting the effects of restoration of Lake Fure, Denmark. Ecological Modelling 197, 89-102. Los, H. (2009). Eco-hydrodynamic modelling of primary production in coastal waters and lakes using BLOOM. PhD thesis Wageningen University ISBN 978-90-8585-329-9. 2