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AP Stat Unit 10 Video 25 Introduction to Significance Tests Name _____________________ Date _____________________ 1. The evidence in the Shakespeare research fails to prove that Shakespeare did not write the poem in question. Like a _______________ test, it can rule ___________, it can't rule____________. 2. Shakespeare's scribe was possibly an early witness to this poem. (Circle one) T/F According to the research, this could be by Shakespeare; there is no strong reason to doubt it. 3. “A Song” was included in Shakespeare's works. Do you agree or disagree with this decision? 4. Calculations: = 7 new words x = 8.2 Using the correct symbols, what is Ho? Using the correct symbols, what is Ha? 5. Notice that Ho and Ha are always stated in terms of (parameters, statistics - circle one) and never in terms of (parameters, statistics - circle one). 6. What is the difference between a "one-sided" and "two-sided" significance test? 7. In a significance test, we start by assuming that ___________ is true. 8. T/F T/F Next, we find the probability of getting a result as extreme as ours if Ho is really true. The Sampling Distribution of x is not relevant to tests of significance. 9. In this case, we want the probability in both directions. Why? 10. What is the formula for z when working with means (like in the case of Shakespeare's alleged poem)? z= This z value is called the ________________________ 11. The observed value of the test statistic in this case is _____________. 12. P-Value: We follow the usual steps and look up the corresponding PRB to our z-score to get 0.1515. Why is this value multiplied by 2 in this instance? 12b. When wouldn't we multiply the PRB (area under the curve) by 2? 13. Interpretation: There is a 30.3% chance that random variation would produce a mean new word count as far as 8.2 from his usual count. So we can expect such a result just less than 1 time out of 3. Do we REJECT or FAIL TO REJECT (circle one) the _______ hypothesis. 14. Explain in clear language what your answer to #13 means for the Shakespeare poem. 15. Why do small p-value give evidence to reject the null hypothesis? 16. What does it mean to say "Statistically Significant at the 5% level."