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Can there be a harmonious relationship between agriculture and the environment in a hungry world? Population of 9 billion plus by 2050 Will require a 70% plus increase in food production • • • • • • Population growth (c.7.0b today to 9.0 b in 2050) Dietary change Urbanisation Globalisation Biofuel production Climate Change Water and Land Per Person Decreasing Degradation and Land Loss Consumption and income 1961-2000 These trends are continuing Demography, GDP and Water Withdrawals 1900 - 2000 Population increased about 3.6 times GDP increased 19 times , about 3% per year (constant prices, IMF) Water withdrawals increased 6.8 times Scenarios Considered Increases in commodity demand Consumptive Water Demand by Sectors Forecast consumption vs 2000 water extractions Drivers paint a pessimistic picture even without climate change • • • • Food production to increase by 70% by 2050 (World Food Summit, Rome) Additional water required under BaU up to 6000 km3 (Comprehensive Assessment 2007) - from where? CC may reduce potential yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030 (Lobell et al, Science, 2008) Temperature increase may reduce yields of corn, soya beans and cotton by 30 – 46% in the US in a century (Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009) Climate Change: Specific Challenges to Wheat in South Asia Climate Change Impacts in the Model The Global Paradox and Challenge An Enabling Framework • • • • • • Political understanding and leadership A nexus approach; water-energy-food security-environment New policies Reform of governance and institutional structures Enforcement of regulations Education and capacity building at all levels Key Policy Directions • • • • • • Increase productivity (but sustainably) Healthier diets Reduce waste Improve trade Reconsider dubious incentives (e.g. biofuels and subsidies) Reclaim degraded lands Waste not – want not Encourage Trade Increase Productivity More crop per drop in irrigated and rainfed systems Reflections on Actions Required • • • • • • Build on Landcare Apply water stewardship and water productivity/efficiency approaches Develop more product certification and value chain approaches Reclaim salinized lands Define key principles of sustainable land and water management Improve governance, regulation and planning of natural resources The Australian Framework for Landcare (DAFF 2009) approach comprises: • A philosophy, influencing the way people live in the landscape while caring for the land • Local community action putting the philosophy into practice • A range of knowledge generation, sharing and support mechanisms including groups, networks (from district to national levels), facilitators and coordinators, government and non-government programs and partnerships Product Certification • • • • • Many schemes; variable success and effectiveness Rainforest Alliance certification Round Table for Sustainable Palm Oil Unilever Sustainable Agriculture code Importance of the value chain Water Stewardship “…the use of water that is socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically beneficial, achieved through a stakeholder-inclusive process that involves site-and catchment-based actions.” It offers users a staged process that has six steps: • Commitment to responsible water stewardship • Data gathering and understanding of shared water challenges and water related risks, impacts and opportunities • Development of a water stewardship plan • Implementation of the site’s stewardship plan and improve impacts • Evaluation of the site’s performance • Communication and disclosure about the site’s performance under the plan. Guidelines for Sustainable Intensification Soil and Water Management Principles Soil • • • • • • • Erosion rates managed to be less than rate of soil formation through management of vegetative cover and soil structure Soil carbon levels must be sustained or increased No net salt or sodicity accumulation Soil biological health must be maintained Nitrate levels managed to prevent off-site leakage to groundwater and streams and any consequent on-site acidification must be rectified Peat soils must not be cleared and existing cleared soils must be managed to prevent high greenhouse gas emissions and shrinkage Potential acid sulphate environments must be managed to prevent acid and aluminium release into the environment. Water • • • • Water access must be defined by a legislated or traditional system of rights and allocations Environmental flows must be determined to sustain in-stream and floodplain ecological functions and resources No offsite pollution from irrigation drainage and agricultural waste run-off No extraction of surface or groundwater beyond sustainable yield • Irrigation must be managed to prevent unacceptable groundwater rise Biodiversity • • • • • Zero net deforestation Crop protection products must be environmentally benign Areas of high genetic resources value must have conservation plans Wildlife corridors must be identified and maintained River flows must be maintained to protect in-stream biodiversity (see environmental flows above). Governance and Planning Frameworks • • • • These are needed to frame, apply and regulate the management principles. Increasingly industry groups are involved in setting standards, but there is a fuzzy boundary between the role of government and the role of industry. The Australian Catchment Management, irrigation cooperatives and MDBA governance frameworks are a good example Major capacity building needed to implement better practices and to reclaim degraded lands (more studies needed re cost-benefits of land reclamation) Conclusions • • • • • • Business as usual is not possible if we are going to feed 9 billion plus by 2050 and not cause further environmental degradation Degradation of the NRM base is already a critical issue Sustainable intensification is the only way forward However, agricultural systems are changing very rapidly and we need to look at both existing methods and innovative ways of sustainable intensification as well as repairing previous damage We need a balance of private sector and government action The tools are available, but is the will there? An opportunity for Australia • • Australia has developed phenomenal know-how in agricultural adaptation to change, land and water management and land reclamation Are we making the most of it from a scientific and economic diplomacy viewpoint??