Download Water and Land Per Person Decreasing

Can there be a harmonious
relationship
between agriculture and the
environment in a hungry world?
Population of 9 billion plus by 2050
Will require a 70% plus increase in food production
•
•
•
•
•
• Population growth
(c.7.0b today to 9.0 b in 2050)
Dietary change
Urbanisation
Globalisation
Biofuel production
Climate Change
Water and Land Per Person
Decreasing
Degradation and Land Loss
Consumption and income
1961-2000
These trends are continuing
Demography, GDP and Water
Withdrawals 1900 - 2000
Population
increased
about 3.6
times
GDP
increased 19
times , about
3% per year
(constant
prices, IMF)
Water withdrawals increased 6.8 times
Scenarios Considered
Increases in
commodity demand
Consumptive Water Demand by
Sectors
Forecast consumption vs 2000
water extractions
Drivers paint a pessimistic picture
even without climate change
•
•
•
•
Food production to increase by 70% by 2050 (World
Food Summit, Rome)
Additional water required under BaU up to 6000
km3
(Comprehensive Assessment 2007) - from where?
CC may reduce potential yields in SSA and SA by 30%
by 2030 (Lobell et al, Science, 2008)
Temperature increase may reduce yields of corn, soya
beans and cotton by
30 – 46% in the US in a century (Schlenker & Roberts,
PNAS, 2009)
Climate Change: Specific Challenges
to Wheat in
South Asia
Climate Change Impacts in the
Model
The Global Paradox and Challenge
An Enabling Framework
•
•
•
•
•
•
Political understanding and leadership
A nexus approach; water-energy-food
security-environment
New policies
Reform of governance and institutional structures
Enforcement of regulations
Education and capacity building at all levels
Key Policy Directions
•
•
•
•
•
•
Increase productivity (but sustainably)
Healthier diets
Reduce waste
Improve trade
Reconsider dubious incentives
(e.g. biofuels and subsidies)
Reclaim degraded lands
Waste not – want not
Encourage Trade
Increase Productivity
More crop per drop in irrigated and rainfed
systems
Reflections on Actions Required
•
•
•
•
•
•
Build on Landcare
Apply water stewardship and water
productivity/efficiency approaches
Develop more product certification and value chain
approaches
Reclaim salinized lands
Define key principles of sustainable land and water
management
Improve governance, regulation and planning of
natural resources
The Australian Framework for Landcare (DAFF 2009)
approach comprises:
• A philosophy, influencing the way people live in the
landscape while caring for the land
• Local community action putting the philosophy into
practice
• A range of knowledge generation, sharing and
support mechanisms including groups, networks
(from district to national levels), facilitators and
coordinators, government and non-government
programs and partnerships
Product Certification
•
•
•
•
•
Many schemes; variable success and effectiveness
Rainforest Alliance certification
Round Table for Sustainable Palm Oil
Unilever Sustainable Agriculture code
Importance of the value chain
Water Stewardship
“…the use of water that is socially equitable, environmentally
sustainable and economically beneficial, achieved through a
stakeholder-inclusive process that involves site-and
catchment-based actions.”
It offers users a staged process that has six steps:
• Commitment to responsible water stewardship
• Data gathering and understanding of shared water
challenges and water related risks, impacts and
opportunities
• Development of a water stewardship plan
• Implementation of the site’s stewardship plan and
improve impacts
• Evaluation of the site’s performance
• Communication and disclosure about the site’s
performance under the plan.
Guidelines for Sustainable
Intensification
Soil and Water Management
Principles
Soil
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Erosion rates managed to be less than rate of soil formation
through management of vegetative cover and soil structure
Soil carbon levels must be sustained or increased
No net salt or sodicity accumulation
Soil biological health must be maintained
Nitrate levels managed to prevent off-site leakage to
groundwater and streams and any consequent on-site
acidification must be rectified
Peat soils must not be cleared and existing cleared soils
must be managed to prevent high greenhouse gas
emissions and shrinkage
Potential acid sulphate environments must be managed to
prevent acid and aluminium release into the environment.
Water
•
•
•
•
Water access must be defined by a legislated or
traditional system of rights and allocations
Environmental flows must be determined to sustain
in-stream and floodplain ecological functions and resources
No offsite pollution from irrigation drainage and
agricultural waste run-off
No extraction of surface or groundwater beyond
sustainable yield
•
Irrigation must be managed to prevent unacceptable
groundwater rise
Biodiversity
•
•
•
•
•
Zero net deforestation
Crop protection products must be environmentally
benign
Areas of high genetic resources value must have
conservation plans
Wildlife corridors must be identified and maintained
River flows must be maintained to protect in-stream
biodiversity (see environmental flows above).
Governance and Planning
Frameworks
•
•
•
•
These are needed to frame, apply and regulate the
management principles.
Increasingly industry groups are involved in setting
standards, but there is a fuzzy boundary between the
role of government and the role of industry.
The Australian Catchment Management, irrigation
cooperatives and MDBA governance frameworks
are a good example
Major capacity building needed to implement better
practices and to reclaim degraded lands (more
studies needed re cost-benefits of land reclamation)
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
•
•
Business as usual is not possible if we
are going to feed 9 billion plus by 2050
and not cause further environmental
degradation
Degradation of the NRM base is already
a critical issue
Sustainable intensification is the only
way forward
However, agricultural systems are changing very
rapidly and we need to look at both existing methods
and innovative ways of sustainable intensification as
well as repairing previous damage
We need a balance of private sector and government
action
The tools are available, but is the will there?
An opportunity for Australia
•
•
Australia has developed phenomenal know-how in
agricultural adaptation to change, land and water
management and land reclamation
Are we making the most of it from a scientific and
economic diplomacy viewpoint??