Download 1 Probabilistic Decision-Making and Climate Assessment 1 Activity

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7
Probabilistic Decision-Making and Climate Assessment
Activity Overview
2. Climate science assessment – test bank
of matching, multiple choice questions,
true / false, and short answer.
This module is designed to be an assessment
of the probabilistic decision-making using
climate forecasts learning modules.
Teaching Summary
The students will demonstrate a mastery of
both probabilistic decision making and
climate science from previous modules. The
assessment is divided into two sections
decision making assessment and science
concept assessment. As in the previous
modules, the assessment is written with
numerous hints such lack of mathematical
concepts does not restrict assessment of
probabilistic decision making. For example,
the assessment is written with hints such that
multiplication by percentages does not
become the focus of the assessment.
Step 1
Assessment One – Decision Making
Step 2
Assessment Two – Science Concepts
Materials Needed
For the Teacher
None
For the Student
A copy of the appropriate assessments is
necessary for each student or group.
Teachers have a great deal of flexibility in
terms of the assessments used to meet the
objectives of the entire set of decision
making and climate learning modules. One
or both assessments can be used. Use the
questions / assessments most appropriate for
your classroom situation.
National Standards
Assessments Available
Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills
(TEKS)
1. Decision Making Assessment - students
use their knowledge of probabilities,
probabilistic
decision-making,
and
expected value to evaluate a decision
problem using the decision tree
approach.
Module provides
address science,
geography national
Guide for specific
grades 5-8.
integrated approach to
math, reading and
standards. See Teacher
standards addressed for
Module provides integrated approach to
address science, math, reading, and
geography standards. See Teacher Guide
2
for specific standards addressed for grades
sixth, seventh, and eighth.
Teaching Suggestions
The Decision Making Assessment can either
be used as a take home assessment or an in
class assessment. This assessment requires
the student to:
1) calculate probabilities from a simple
data set,
2) complete a decision tree,
3) calculate expected value for two
decisions,
4) determine the best decision, and
5) determine if the student understands
expected value.
The Climate Science Assessments consists
of a test bank of matching, multiple choice,
True / False, and short answer questions.
This test bank is broken into two sections.
The first section contains questions students
should be able to answer using the
worksheet from Learning Module 2 and the
ENSO Jigsaw in Learning Module 3. The
second section contains questions that
pertain to the optional readings in Learning
Modules 2 and 3 and the expert readings in
Learning Module 3.
Use the test bank as appropriate for your
class to develop a climate science
assessment.
3
Decision Making - Assessment
Josephine Farmer is trying to make a decision as to how much fertilizer (either 100 or 200
pounds per acre) to apply to her corn crop. Josephine wants to maximize her expected profits.
Year
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Precipitation Level
Near Normal
Above Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
Near Normal
Year
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
Precipitation Level
Near Normal
Below Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
Near Normal
1. From her historical records, Josephine developed the following table that relates nitrogen
level to precipitation level and profits. Using data from the above table fill in the forecast
probability level for precipitation levels of above, near, and below normal.
Fertilizer Decision
Precipitation Level
100 pounds nitrogen
Above normal
Near normal
Below Normal
Forecast
Probability
10% or 0.1 or 1/10
60% or 0.6 or 6/10
30% or 0.3 or 3/10
200 pounds nitrogen
Above normal
Near normal
Below Normal
10% or 0.1 or 1/10
60% or 0.6 or 6/10
30% or 0.3 or 3/10
Profits ($ / acre)
130
90
30
110
80
70
2. Complete the following per acre decision tree diagram for Josephine’s problem. Be sure to
fill in each branch and Josephine’s goal.
Goal__Maximize or Largest Expected profit
Decisions
Precipitation
Levels
Profits
$110
0.1 Below
0.6 Near
$80
100 pounds
$70
0.3 Above
0.1 Below
$130
200 pounds
0.6 Near
0.3 Above
$90
$30
4
Hint: for questions 3 and 4. Note to teacher – choose hint appropriate for your class level or no
hint at all.
expected profit = (probability of below normal precipitation * profits) + (probability of near normal
precipitation * profits) + (probability of above normal precipitation * profits)
or
exp ected profits 
(number of years below*prof its)  (number of years near*profi ts)  (number of years above*prof its)
total number of years
3. Find the expected profit for the decision to put 100 pounds of nitrogen on the acre of corn.
E(profit )  (.1 *110)  (.6 * 80)  (.3 * 70)  11  48  21  $80
or
1
6
3
110  480  210
E(profit )  ( *110)  ( * 80)  ( * 70) 
 $80
10
10
10
10
4. Find the expected profit for the decision to put 200 pounds of nitrogen on the acre of corn.
E(profit )  (.1*130)  (.6 * 90)  (.3 * 30)  13  54  9  $76
or
1
6
3
130  540  90
E(profit )  ( *130)  ( * 90)  ( * 30) 
 $76
10
10
10
10
5. What is Josephine’s best decision concerning the application of nitrogen to her corn crop?
Apply 100 pounds of nitrogen
6. If Josephine applied 100 pounds of nitrogen to her corn acre, will she get the expected profit
you found in questions 3 every year? Circle the correct answer.
Yes
No
7. Why or why not, did you provide the answer you did in questions 6? In other words, what is
the meaning of expected value?
Expected value is the amount you would expect by averaging many years. It is not what
you will get in any given year.
5
Climate Science Test Bank
Questions from Required Material in
Learning Module 2
and
Learning Module 3 - ENSO Jigsaw
6
Matching Questions
Careful this is a listing of the matching questions with the terms and definitions across from each
other. This is for ease in choosing questions. The next page has the definitions randomized.
Terms
Definitions / Questions
A. This is experienced over a period two weeks or
longer.
B. ENSO phase characterized by conditions that
are considered to be normal.
C. ENSO phase characterized by warmer than
normal sea surface temperatures in the Niño
3.4 region.
A
1. Climate
B
2. Neutral
C
3. El Niño
D
4. Warm
D. Another name for the El Niño phase.
E
5. Cold
E. Another name for the La Niña phase.
F
6. Thermocline
G
7. Niño Region 3.4
H
8. Weather
I
9. Teleconnections
J
10. Upwelling
K
11. Walker Circulation
L
12. Southern Oscillation
M
13. Anomalies
N
14. ENSO
O
15. La Niña
P
16. Jet streams
Q
17. Trade Winds
F. The boundary between the colder deep water
and warmer upper water layer.
G. Region in the tropical Pacific Ocean used to
determine ENSO phases.
H. This is experienced over a short period of less
than two weeks.
I. A linkage between a physical process in one
region and climate anomalies in other regions.
J. When the thermocline moves closer to the
ocean’s surface.
K. The vertical and horizontal circulation of air
associated with the trade winds.
L. The seesaw of air pressure near the equator
between the eastern and western Pacific Ocean.
M. Sea surface temperature changes from normal.
N. Refers to the ocean-atmosphere system in the
tropical Pacific Ocean.
O. ENSO phase characterized by cooler than
normal sea surface temperatures in the Niño
3.4 region
P. Relatively normal band of strong winds in the
upper levels of the atmosphere
Q. Winds found in the tropics and subtropics that
blow mainly from the northeast in the Northern
Hemisphere, and from the southeast in the
Southern Hemisphere
7
Matching Questions
Put the correct letter of the definition in front of the term / phrase.
A. This is experienced over a period two weeks or
longer.
B. ENSO phase characterized by conditions that
are considered to be normal.
C. ENSO phase characterized by warmer than
normal sea surface temperatures in the Niño
3.4 region.
K
1. Walker Circulation
M
2. Anomalies
J
3. Upwelling
B
4. Neutral
D. Another name for the El Niño phase.
N
5. ENSO
E. Another name for the La Niña phase.
F
6. Thermocline
C
7. El Niño
L
8. Southern Oscillation
D
9. Warm
O
10. La Niña
I
11. Teleconnections
A
12. Climate
H
13. Weather
E
14. Cold
G
15. Niño Region 3.4
P
16. Jet streams
Q
17. Trade Winds
F. The boundary between the colder deep water
and warmer upper water layer.
G. Region in the tropical Pacific Ocean used to
determine ENSO phases.
H. This is experienced over a short period of less
than two weeks.
I. A linkage between a physical process in one
region and climate anomalies in other regions.
J. When the thermocline moves closer to the
ocean’s surface.
K. The vertical and horizontal circulation of air
associated with the trade winds.
L. The seesaw of air pressure near the equator
between the eastern and western Pacific Ocean.
M. Sea surface temperature changes from normal.
N. A change in the ocean-atmosphere system in
the tropical Pacific Ocean.
O. ENSO phase characterized by cooler than
normal sea surface temperatures in the Niño
3.4 region
P. Relatively normal band of strong winds in the
upper levels of the atmosphere
Q. Winds found in the tropics and subtropics that
blow mainly from the northeast in the Northern
Hemisphere, and from the southeast in the
Southern Hemisphere
8
Multiple Choice Questions
Directions: Choose the best answer for the following questions.
___ 1. EL Niño / Southern Oscillation refers to the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the
A.
B.
C.
D.
Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Pacific Ocean
Northern Pacific Ocean
Indian Ocean
___ 2. Weather is what is experienced over
A.
B.
C.
D.
Five days
A period of less than two weeks.
A period of two weeks or longer
A week
___ 3. The acronym, ENSO, stands for
A.
B.
C.
D.
La Niña
El Niño
El Niño and Southern Oscillation
La Niña and Southern Oscillation
___ 4. Niño 3.4 region is found where?
A.
B.
C.
D.
At the equator in the Atlantic Ocean
At the equator in the Pacific Ocean
Running from the North Pole to the South Pole
In the northern Pacific Ocean
___ 5. What is the Walker Circulation?
A.
B.
C.
D.
The vertical and horizontal circulation of air associated with the trade winds.
The horizontal circulation of air associated with the trade winds.
The vertical circulation of air.
The winds that blow in a cyclonic direction
___ 6. What is the typical sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño phase?
A.
B.
C.
D.
They are colder than normal
They are warmer than normal
They are the same temperature normal
Anomalies do not happen during El Niño phases
9
___ 7. What is meant by La Niña being the cold phase of ENSO?
A.
B.
C.
D.
It is characterized by positive sea surface temperatures anomalies
It is characterized by negative sea surface temperatures anomalies
It has normal sea surface temperatures
La Niña is not known as the warm phase
___ 8. In El Niño Southern / Oscillation phenomenon, how are El Niño and Southern Oscillation
different?
A.
B.
C.
D.
There is no difference
El Niño is the oceanic component
Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component
Both B and C
___ 9. What term is sometimes used by people to refer to ENSO?
A.
B.
C.
D.
El Niño
La Niña
Neutral
None, people always use ENSO
___ 10. What Niño region is used to classify ENSO phases?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Region 3
Region 4
Region 3.4
Region 2
___ 11. What phenomena is the basis for most current climate forecasts?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Walker Circulation
Trade winds
Pacific Oscillation
ENSO
___ 12. Under El Niño conditions, the warm pool of water in the tropical Pacific moves in which
direction?
A.
B.
C.
D.
North
South
East
West
10
___ 13. Under La Niña conditions, the warm pool of water in the tropical Pacific moves in which
direction?
A. North
B. South
C. East
D. West
___ 14. What is the typical sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the La Niña
phase?
A.
B.
C.
D.
They are colder than normal
They are warmer than normal
They are the same temperature as normal
Anomalies do not happen in La Niña events
___ 15. What is the typical sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño phase?
A.
B.
C.
D.
They are colder than normal
They are warmer than normal
They are the same temperature as normal
Anomalies do not happen in La Niña events
___ 16. Which of the following is a characteristic of the trade winds during an El Niño phase?
A.
B.
C.
D.
The trade winds are not affected by ENSO
The trade winds weaken
The trade winds strengthen
The trade winds move the warm pool of water in the equatorial Pacific to the west
___ 17. Which of the following is a characteristic of the trade winds during a La Niña phase?
A.
B.
C.
D.
The trade winds are not affected by ENSO
The trade winds weaken
The trade winds strengthen
The trade winds move the warm pool of water in the equatorial Pacific to the east
___ 18. Which of the following is a characteristic of the jet streams during an El Niño phase?
A.
B.
C.
D.
The jet streams not affected by ENSO
They push north and are more variable
They stay on a southern track
The jet streams move the warm pool of water in the equatorial Pacific to the west
11
___ 19. Which of the following is a characteristic of the jet streams during a La Niña phase?
A.
B.
C.
D.
The jet streams not affected by ENSO
They push north and are more variable
They stay on a southern track
The jet streams move the warm pool of water in the equatorial Pacific to the west
___ 20. Under neutral conditions, what characterizes the warm pool of water in the tropical
Pacific?
A.
B.
C.
D.
It is characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures
It is characterized by colder sea surface temperatures
La Niña is not known as the warm phase
It has normal sea surface temperatures
___ 21. What is meant by sea surface temperature anomalies?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Trade winds move southward
The temperature effects of the El Niño Phase of ENSO
The temperature effects of the La Niña phase of ENSO
Changes from normal
___ 22. During an El Niño phase, which of the following characterizes upwelling in the eastern
Pacific?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Less upwelling
More upwelling
No change in the amount of upwelling
The change occurs in the western Pacific and not the eastern Pacific Ocean
___ 23. During a La Niña phase, which of the following characterizes upwelling in the eastern
Pacific?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Less upwelling
More upwelling
No change in the amount of upwelling
The change occurs in the western Pacific and not the eastern Pacific Ocean
___ 24. The thermocline is
A.
B.
C.
D.
Coupling of the ocean and atmosphere
A shift in the Walker Circulation
Another name for sea surface temperatures
The boundary between colder deep water and warmer shallow water
12
___ 24. Increased upwelling causes the following biological change.
A.
B.
C.
D.
Increase in plant and animal life
Decrease in plant and animal life
No change in plant and animal life
A, B, and C because scientist do not understand upwelling
___ 25. What cause upwelling in the Pacific Ocean?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Thermocline moving toward the sea surface
Changes in the climatic pressure
Changes in the warm pool of water
Smaller pressure differences in the Southern Oscillation
13
True / False Questions. Circle the correct answer.
1.
T F
An El Niño is sometimes called a warm event because it is associated with
warmer than usual temperatures in some parts of the world.
2.
T F
A La Niña is sometimes called a cold event because it is associated with cooler
than usual sea surface temperatures in Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean.
3.
T F
Teleconnections are linkages between a physical event in one geographical region
and a region away from the physical event.
4.
T F
During an El Niño event, the trade winds weaken.
5.
T F
During a La Niña event, the trade winds weaken.
6.
T F
During an El Niño event, the pool of warm water moves westward.
7.
T F
During a La Niña event, the pool of warm water moves westward.
8.
T F
El Niño phase is also known as the warm phase.
9.
T F
La Niña phase is also known as the warm phase.
10.
T F
A single snowstorm can not be directly attributed to an ENSO event.
11.
T F
Differences in sea surface temperatures between the east and west equatorial
Pacific Ocean cause the trade winds to occur.
12.
T F
Scientists completely understand the ENSO phenomenon.
14
Short Answer Questions
1.
Where is the Niño region 3.4 located?
On the equator is the central part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
2.
How does upwelling influence biological life in the ocean?
Upwelling brings nutrients up from the cold water. These nutrients allow for high primary
production, which in turn allows for high fish production and other animal production such
as mammals and birds
3.
Describe the changes in the sea surface temperatures and the Walker Circulation between
normal conditions and El Niño events.
During an El Niño, the trade winds weaken. The pool of warm water moves eastward. The
eastward movement of the warm pool causes the thermocline to move down in the eastern
Pacific Ocean and to become shallower in the western Pacific. Lower than normal air
pressure in the eastern Pacific and higher air than normal air pressure in the western Pacific
was associated with El Niño.
4.
Describe the changes in the sea surface temperatures and the Walker Circulation between
normal conditions and La Niña events.
During La Niña conditions, the trade winds strengthen. The warm pool of water in the
equatorial Pacific moves farther west. The thermocline becomes shallower in the eastern
Pacific Ocean and deeper in the western Pacific Ocean. Opposite air pressure conditions
than those that occur in an El Niño event are associated with La Niña events. Air pressure
is high in the eastern Pacific and low in the western Pacific.
5.
Why is the Niño region 3.4 important?
Where changes in seas surface temperatures are measured to define ENSO events or define
the location of the warm pool for ENSO even
6.
In California, El Niño conditions are associated with higher rainfall levels during the
December to February period. Does this mean higher rainfall will always occur during El
Niño events?
No, just an increase in probability of higher rainfall levels.
15
Mark the impact of El Niño and La Niña events on the U.S map
1. Mark the expected changes of precipitation and temperature during El Niño events in
December through February for the following U.S. areas.
a) Northwestern U.S., b) Southwestern U.S., and c) Southeastern U.S.
2. Mark the expected changes of precipitation and temperature during La Niña events in
December through February for the following U.S. areas.
a) Northwestern U.S. and b) Southeastern U.S.
16
Climate Science Test Bank
Questions from Optional Material in
Module 2
and
All Material from Learning Module 3
17
Optional Matching Questions
Careful this is a listing of the matching questions with the terms and definitions across from each
other. This is for ease in choosing questions. The next page has the definitions randomized.
Term
Definition / Question
A
Malaria
A. A life-threatening parasitic disease
transmitted by mosquitoes
B
North Atlantic Oscillation
B. A phenomenon similar to ENSO
C
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
D
Indian Monsoon Cycle
E
Gleissberg Cycle
F
Coupling
C. Associated with sea surface temperatures
in the northeastern and tropical Pacific
Ocean
D. Important in determining food production
for over one billion people
E. Maybe important in determining global
warming
F. Trade winds determine the water
temperature at the same water temperature
determines the trade winds
18
Optional Matching Questions
Put the correct letter of the definition in front of the term / phrase.
Term
D
Indian Monsoon Cycle
F
Coupling
B
North Atlantic Oscillation
C
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
A
Malaria
E
Gleissberg Cycle
Definition / Question
A. A life-threatening parasitic disease
transmitted by mosquitoes
B. A phenomenon similar to ENSO
C. Associated with sea surface temperatures
in the northeastern and tropical Pacific
Ocean
D. Important in determining food production
for over one billion people
E. Maybe important in determining global
warming
F. Trade winds determine the water
temperature at the same water temperature
determines the trade winds
19
Optional Multiple Choice Questions
___ 1. La Niña in Spanish means
A.
B.
C.
D.
A man
Small boy
Small girl
A woman
___ 2. El Niño in Spanish is referred to as
A.
B.
C.
D.
A man
A woman
Small girl
Small boy
___ 3. El Niño and La Niña events occur
A.
B.
C.
D.
Every month
Every year
Every 2-7 years
Every 10-15 years.
___ 4. Why are the winds called “Trade Winds?”
A.
B.
C.
D.
The trade places with the atmosphere
The winds blow eastward
The trade winds determine the water temperature
Early sailing ships used the winds to sail from South America westward
___ 5. In what months are ENSO climate effects stronger in the Northern hemisphere?
A.
B.
C.
D.
___ 6.
September, October and November
March, April and May
June, July and August
December, January and February
What happens when there is upwelling along the coast of South American during an El
Niño year?
A. The nutrient rich cold water from the deep ocean appears at the surface.
B. There is abundance of plankton
C. There are many planks and animals
D. There is a increase in plant production resulting in more fish and animal production
20
___ 7. Where do hurricanes form?
A. They form over normal temperature water
B. They form over land
C. They form over warm water
D. They form over cold water
___ 8. Which is not true about the Walker Circulation associated with the trade winds?
A. It is the vertical and horizontal circulation of air associated with the trade winds.
B. Under normal conditions, the winds blowing westward cause a large pool of warm
water in the western Pacific Ocean.
C. Rising air leaves the lower atmosphere and air flows in to fill the gap. The winds
blowing in to fill the gap are the trade winds.
D. Under normal conditions, the trade winds force the thermocline to be deep in the
Eastern Pacific Ocean and shallow in the western Pacific Ocean.
___ 9. Which is not true about El Niño and La Niña events?
A. During El Niño years, unusually high atmospheric sea level pressures develop in the
Western Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions.
B. During La Niña years, Southern Oscillation tendencies are linked to periods of
anomalously cold equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs).
C. The low Southern Oscillation Index (small pressure difference) is associated with La
Niña conditions and strengthening of the trade winds.
D. La Niña is sometime referred to as the cold phase because of the cooler sea surface
temperatures in the eastern Pacific.
___ 10. Which is correct as the results of El Niño events?
A. Drier than normal conditions at subtropical latitudes of North America (Gulf Coast)
B. Wetter that normal conditions at South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina).
C. Wetter than normal conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.
D. Drier than normal conditions along the west coast of tropical South America.
___ 11. What is not true about the results of La Niña events?
A.
B.
C.
D.
The Pacific jetstream moves northward.
La Niña conditions are associated with fewer storms in the southern U.S.
The Northern U.S. and parts of Canada becomes cooler.
One storm can be attributed to the La Niña event.
21
___ 12. What spreads malaria?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Rodents
Mosquitoes
Birds
Dirty Rivers.
___ 13. How does ENSO affect health of people?
A.
B.
C.
D.
It raises natural disasters that affect public health
ENSO brings a moderating climate
Drought is preferred where no one wants to farm
None of the above.
___ 14 .Why are forest and bush fires reported in some areas of the world during an El Niño
event?
A.
B.
C.
D.
The forest needs to be reduced
The bush fires help keep the scenery clean
More new trees will grow
Drought increases the susceptibility of some forest to fires
___ 15. What is the main cause of severe food shortages during an El Niño phase?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Severe drought in some areas
Severe flood in some areas
Severe precipitation over two week period
Decrease in temperatures
22
Optional True False Questions
1.
T F
In a humid climate decreased rainfall may turn normal flowing rivers into
stagnant pools that become home for mosquitoes.
2.
T F
Rainfall, humidity, and temperature are important in the transmission of a
mosquito borne disease.
3.
T F
Outbreaks of Dengue fever, a viral disease, is associated with El Niño.
4.
T F
Outbreaks of cholera and diarrhea diseases are not associated with ENSO events
in parts of the world.
23
Optional Short Answer Questions
1.
Why is the Pacific Ocean approximately ½ meter higher in the western part than in the
eastern part of the Ocean?
Trade winds tend to blow to the west piling up water in the western Pacific
2. What are the expected changes in precipitation for the following areas of the world during El
Niño events and during La Niña events during the December through February time period?
Hint: no expected change may be appropriate
Area of the World
Eastern Australia
South eastern Africa
Peru
Northeastern U.S.
Northwestern U.S.
Europe
Indonesian
California
Southeastern U.S.
Brazil
3.
Expected changes in
precipitation during
an El Niño event
dry
dry
wet
wet?
wet
none
dry
wet
wet
dry
Expected changes in
precipitation during
an La Niña event
wet
wet
dry
none
dry
none
wet
dry
dry
wet
What are the expected changes in temperature for the following areas of the world during
El Niño events and during La Niña events during the December through February time
period? Hint: no expected change may be appropriate.
Area of the World
Eastern Australia
Southeastern Africa
Peru
Northeastern U.S.
Northwestern U.S.
Europe
Indonesian
California
Southeastern U.S.
Expected changes in
temperature during
an El Niño event
warm
warm
warm
none
cool
none
warm
cool
cool
Expected changes in
temperature during
an La Niña event
none
cool
cool
none
warm
none
none
warm
warm
24
4.
What are the expected changes in the North American jetstream associated with El Niño?
During an El Niño event, the Pacific jet stream tends to stay on a southern track. The Polar
jet stream is pushed to the east, which is associated with warmer weather in Northern U.S.
and parts of Canada.
5.
What are the expected changes in the North American jetstream associated with La Niña?
La Niña conditions tend to push the Pacific jetstream northward. The polar jet stream tends
to be pushed westerly.
6.
Usually dryer weather is associated with warmer weather. Why might this be the case?
Cloud cover or lack of cloud cover