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ANNEX 3: Assessment of potential for UK cultivation for GM crops. The types of GM crops that will be grown in the UK are predominantly influenced by the UK climate, the physiology of the crop species and the type of authorization sought by the notifier. Tables 1 through to 6 show the different notifications pending or already approved for GM crops in the EU, with an assessment of the likelihood of cultivation, dissemination or establishment. This assessment is based on the biology of the crop (including the suitability of the crop to the UK climate, mode of reproduction, pollen dispersal, etc.), the type of marketing approval sought (e.g. import for processing or cultivation) and any legislative restrictions such as crop quotas. The tables are divided into notifications pending and approved under the various Directives (90/220, 2001/18 and 1829/2003), with use either including cultivation or not including cultivation. This situation changes constantly and the tables presented here reflect the situation as at 01 September 2005. The status of some of these may have changed since that time. Table 1 – GMO Products already approved for Placing on the Market under Directive 90/220/EC Crop Type & Product Name, Trait & Likelihood of dissemination and establishment in UK Notification Use 1 Roundup Ready soya Soya Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: line 40-3-2. C/UK/94/M3/1 There is the possibility of unintended spillage of soya seed. Given the appropriate conditions of warmth and moisture this seed may germinate and grow, possibly leading to small feral populations; Monsanto For import and Soya is currently grown in the UK, on a limited basis. There may be the potential, therefore, for cross-pollination from processing. The product feral populations of GM soya to conventional crops. Date consent will not be cultivated in The granting of consent C/BE/96/01 may have increased the possibility of Roundup Ready soya seed being erroneously issued: the EU. imported into the UK as seed for cultivation, or being present accidentally in other soya seeds for cultivation. May 1996 Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: Date consent Soya has poor survivability outside of the cultivated environment. Spilt grain is unlikely to grow and reach maturity; expires: There are no wild or weedy relatives in the UK that may hybridise with the GM soya beans, and soya bean crops are not Oct 2006 widely grown. The deliberate release consent does not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if Roundup Ready soya line 40-3-2 were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION/ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: HIGHLY UNLIKELY It is unlikely that soya line 40-3-2 will establish in the UK. In most situations spilt seed is unlikely to germinate and grow, and if it should do so it is very unlikely to reach maturity or be in a situation to fertilize commercial crops. There have been no reports of this happening in UK since the consent was issued, and since the consent will expire in October 2006 it is Annex 3 – page 1 2 Maize C/F/94/11-03 CIBA-GEIGY Limited (now Syngenta). Date consent issued: Feb 1997 Date consent expires: Oct 2006 3 Carnation C/NL/96/14 Florigene Europe BV Date consent issued: Dec 1997 Date consent Insect resistant maize line CG00526-176 (Bt 176). Note: Bt176 also possesses herbicide tolerance but the scope of the notification has been limited to use without the application of glufosinate ammonium herbicides. The product is intended for cultivation for seed production and the production of silage and grain for animal feed, and grain for industrial processing. Carnation (Dianthus caryophyllus L.) lines with a modified flower colour. The GM carnation is intended for cultivation by cutflower growers, flower auctions, flower wholesalers, retailers and breeders. The cut flowers will be highly unlikely to happen in the short period remaining. Furthermore, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: Bt 176 maize is intended for use, including cultivation, in the EU; Maize is currently grown in the UK, primarily in the form of forage maize for feeding to cattle. Bt176 is a grain/fodder maize. The granting of consent C/F/94/11-03 may have increased the possibility of CG00526-176 (Bt 176) maize seed being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation, or being present accidentally in other maize seeds for cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: Bt176 is designed for cultivation in areas infested with the European Corn Borer. This insect pest is not present as a pest in the UK therefore Bt176 would not provide any benefit to UK growers; In the UK, yields of Bt176 grain maize are likely to be lower than those of conventional forage varieties which have been specially developed for UK conditions; The market for the harvested product may be restricted in the UK due to ongoing consumer opposition to GM products. (But public opposition may be circumvented if the produce is fed directly to on-farm cattle). LIKELIHOOD OF CULTIVATION IN UK: UNLIKELY Bt 176 maize is unlikely to be cultivated in UK due to a lack of target organisms and the fact that it cannot be used in conjunction with Glufosinate-ammonium herbicide. It should be noted that Spain has withdrawn Bt176 from the market at the request of the EU, because of concern that the variety could generate resistance to antibiotics. The withdrawal follows a report from the European Food Security Agency (EFSA) calling for an end to cultivation of several genetically modified corn varieties containing antibiotic resistance marker genes. Bt176 is not available on the EC common catalogue for seeds and has not been cultivated in the UK since the consent was issued; the consent expires in October 2006 making cultivation highly unlikely in the short period remaining. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: The genetically modified carnation intended for cultivation in the EU, therefore there is the possibility of plants being grown in the UK, most likely under glass by cut flower growers; Marketing includes selling the GM carnation line as cuttings or plants, which would allow consumers to grow them in their gardens. This could lead to pollination of conventional carnation plants leading to wild clonal populations; In the UK there are 3 native Dianthus species, however is not clear whether carnation can form viable crosses with them. Their remote habitat locations makes geneflow unlikely. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: Dissemination through pollination is much less effective in carnation than in wild Dianthus species. Carnation pollen is not wind dispersed and can only be transferred by lepidopteran insects such as moths; The 3 Dianthus species native to the UK are not widely distributed and usually grow in more remote areas away from Annex 3 – page 2 expires: Oct 2006 purchased by consumers. Plants are sold as flowers, cuttings or plants. gardens and human habitation, therefore, if they are sexually compatible with carnation the risk of geneflow will be reduced by their remote locations. Furthermore, no hybrids between carnation and any other Dianthus species has ever been recorded in the wild; Carnation is an annual plant which does not form vegetative reproductive structures such as stolons, rhizomes, rootborne shoots or tubers. Carnation is semi-winter hardy and cannot survive in areas where temperatures occur below - 5 °C. Since the consent was issued in 1997 there have been no reports of the dissemination and/or establishment of GM carnations in the EU. This is a good indication that dissemination and establishment is unlikely. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE Carnations with modified flower colour may be planted in private gardens leading to cross-pollination of conventional Dianthus species. This could lead to limited dissemination in the UK. However there have been no media reports of dissemination of GM carnation in the UK in the years since the consent was granted. 4 Oilseed rape C/UK/95/M5/1 AgrEvo UK Crop Protection Limited (now Bayer) Date consent issued: Jun 1998 Date consent expires: Oct 2006 Herbicide tolerant (glufosinate ammonium) oilseed rape Topas line 19/2. The scope of the application is for the handling in the environment during import, before and during storage, and before and during its processing to nonviable products. The scope of this notification does not include cultivation of Topas line 19/2 LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: POSSIBLE If members of the public were to grow modified carnation plants in their gardens there is the possibility that some will become established. However, establishment is likely to be at a low level and require continued human intervention to maintain these plants because carnations do not survive low temperatures. Establishment in the wild, either as clones or as hybrid crosses wild Dianthus species is unlikely. In addition there have been no media reports of establishment in the UK in the years since the consent was granted. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: Oilseed rape seed is particularly prone to unintended spillage due to its small size. Spillage could occur at docks, during transportation, or at processing plants. Oilseed rape is well suited to the UK climate and can grow under a wide range of conditions, therefore it is quite likely that any spilled material will germinate and reach maturity; Oilseed rape seeds can lie dormant for many years until the appearance of favourable conditions, at which time they germinate; Oilseed rape is wind and insect pollinated, therefore there is the possibility of geneflow to feral and cultivated oilseed rape populations. Geneflow can occur over long distances; Oilseed rape is capable of forming natural crosses with a number of wild relatives found in the UK, including: Brassica rapa, Brassica juncea, Hirschfeldia incana, Raphanus raphanistrum, and Sinapis arvensis; Feral populations of Topas 19/2 oilseed rape and OSR hybrids which have inherited the herbicide tolerance gene may be more difficult to control due to tolerance to glyphosate herbicides; The granting of consent C/UK/95/M5/1 may have increased the risk of Topas 19/2 seed being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation or being present accidentally in other oilseed rape seeds for cultivation. There has been one incident of the adventitious presence of Topas 19/2 in oilseed rape seed that has been sown for trial purposes in the UK. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: Annex 3 – page 3 (Note: consent restricted to import and not cultivation in March 1997). The frequency of gene flow to wild relatives under natural conditions is considered very low. In addition the fitness of the interspecific hybrids is generally reduced compared to the parents and the stable introgression of the herbicide tolerance trait into weed species is extremely difficult; Any viable progeny of a hybrid oilseed rape-wild relative carrying the herbicide tolerance gene can be controlled by current agronomic practices, either mechanically by cultivation in the rotation cycle, or by broad-leaf herbicides other than glufosinate. The deliberate release consent does not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if Topas 19/2 oilseed rape were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE Due to the small size of OSR seeds the possibility of spillage of Topas 19/2 during loading, unloading and transportation is relatively high. Evidence of this can be seen at installations such as docks and processing plants, and it is especially noticeable along roads where small feral populations of conventional OSR are often seen growing. OSR is wind and insect pollinated and geneflow can occur over large distances, leading to fertilisation of OSR crops and wild relatives. 5 Maize C/F/95/12/07 AgrEvo UK Crop Protection Limited (now Bayer) Date consent issued: Aug 1998 6 Date consent expires: Oct 2006 Maize Herbicide tolerant (glufosinate ammonium) fodder maize line T25 The scope of the application includes cultivation of the GM maize within the EU, and the importation of grain and maize for processing for feed, food and industrial products. Insect resistant maize LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: POSSIBLE VIA DISSEMINATION Oilseed rape is well suited to climatic conditions in the UK. Once dissemination has taken place, either via seed dispersal or by geneflow, feral populations of OSR can subsist for many years. OSR seeds can remain dormant for a number of years until subject to the right conditions when they germinate, grow and set seed, often in a very short time. Intra-specific crosses of Topas 19/2 and conventional OSR are likely to be more difficult to control in farmland. The offspring from inter-specific OSR/related species crosses often exhibit reduced fertility and vigour, however such hybrids are likely to have a selective advantage in the presence of glufosinate herbicide, making them more difficult to control and more likely to persist. However, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Note: in March 2004 Bayer CropScience announced the withdrawal of Chardon LL from the approvals procedure required for the marketing of Chardon LL. Chardon LL was the only variety of T25 maize under consideration for cultivation in the UK. (Bayer CropScience stated that Chardon LL had been left "economically non-viable" because of imposed conditions by the UK regulatory authorities). LIKELIHOOD OF CULTIVATION IN UK: VERY UNLIKELY Because of the restrictions imposed on the growing of T25 in the UK the consent holder has decided not to seek approval for Chardon LL. Although there is a possibility that the notifier may re-apply for cultivation when the consent expires in 2006, the likelihood of this is considered to be small because T25 will have lost its competitive edge compared to newer maize varieties. Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: Annex 3 – page 4 C/F/95/12/02 Monsanto Date consent issued: Aug 1998 Date consent expires: Oct 2006 7 Maize C/GB/96/M4/1 Northrup King Company (now Syngenta) Date consent issued: Jun 1998 Date consent expires: Oct 2006 line MON 810, genetically modified to express the cryIA(b) insect control protein. The scope of the application includes cultivation of the GM maize within the EU, and the importation of grain and maize products into the EU, and their storage and processing for feed, food and industrial products. Herbicide tolerant and insect resistant maize line Bt-11. The scope of the application is only for the importation of maize seed into the EU, for animal feed and industrial processing to non-viable products, including those for human consumption. The scope does not include cultivation of maize Bt-11 in the EU. MON810 is authorized for use, including cultivation, in any geographical area in the EU currently producing or processing maize. In addition MON810 has been National Listed in France and Spain (although Spain is currently the only place in Europe where it has been grown commercially); Maize is currently grown in the UK, primarily in the form of forage maize for feeding to cattle, although a small quantity of grain maize is also produced in the UK. The granting of consent C/F/95/12/02 may have increased the possibility of MON 810 seed being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation, or being present accidentally in other maize seeds for cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: The insect resistance properties of MON810 will not provide any benefit to UK growers due to the absence of Lepidopteran pests in this country; In the UK, yields of MON810 grain maize are likely to be lower than those of conventional forage varieties which have been specially developed for UK conditions; The market for the harvested product may be restricted in the UK due to ongoing consumer opposition to GM products. (But public opposition may be circumvented if the produce is fed directly to on-farm cattle). LIKELIHOOD OF CULTIVATION IN UK: HIGHLY UNLIKELY MON810 is highly unlikely to be cultivated in UK due to absence of Lepidopteran pests, the potential of significantly lower yields, and a restricted product market. In addition MON810 has no herbicide tolerant properties and therefore will not appeal to growers seeking to simply their crop management techniques. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: The possibility exists of unintended spillage of Bt-11 maize kernels. Spillage may occur at docks, during transportation, or at the processing plant. The UK climate favours the growth of maize, therefore it is possible that spilled material will germinate and reach maturity; Maize is wind pollinated, therefore there is the possibility of geneflow to cultivated maize plants; Consent C/GB/96/M4/1 may have increased the possibility of Bt-11 seed being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation, or being present accidentally in other maize seeds for cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: There are no wild relatives of maize growing in the UK, therefore there is no possibility of geneflow to native British species; Maize is a weak competitor outside cultivation and therefore it is not an invasive plant. Consequently if seed is spilled feral populations are unlikely to establish in the wild; Maize does not generally reach full maturity in the UK, so viable seed is not likely to be produced. If feral plants were to produce viable seed it is unlikely that volunteers would persist throughout the winter as maize plants are killed by frost; Maize volunteers are easily controlled by current agronomic practices including cultivation and the use of selective herbicides; Although pollen may be spread over long distances, maize pollen viability is highly dependent on temperature and Annex 3 – page 5 desiccation. The deliberate release consent does not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if Bt11 maize were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE The possibility exists that spilt grain of Bt-11 will germinate and flower. Due to the wind-pollinated nature of maize plants this could result in geneflow to cultivated maize populations. 8 Carnation C/NL/97/12 Florigene Europe BV Date consent issued: Oct 1998 Date consent expires: Oct 2006 Carnation (Dianthus caryophyllus L.) line 66 with improved vase life (and tolerance to sulphonylurea herbicides). The GM carnation is intended for cultivation by cutflower growers, flower auctions, flower wholesalers, retailers and breeders. The cut flowers will be purchased by consumers. Plants are sold as flowers, cuttings or plants. LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: HIGHLY UNLIKELY It is highly unlikely that Bt-11 will establish in the UK. Maize cannot survive without human assistance, is not capable of surviving as a weed due to past selection, and there are no wild relatives in the UK. Furthermore, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: The genetically modified carnation intended for cultivation in the EU, therefore there is the possibility of plants being grown in the UK, most likely under glass by cutflower growers; Marketing includes selling the GM carnation line as cuttings or plants, which would allow consumers to grow them in their gardens. This could lead to pollination of conventional carnation plants leading to wild clonal populations; In the UK there are 3 native Dianthus species, however is not clear whether carnation can form viable crosses with them. Their remote habitat locations makes geneflow unlikely.. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: Dissemination through pollination is much less effective in carnation than in wild Dianthus species. Carnation pollen is not wind dispersed and can only be transferred by lepidopteran insects such as moths; The 3 Dianthus species native to the UK are not widely distributed and usually grow in more remote areas away from gardens and human habitation, therefore, if they are sexually compatible with carnation the risk of geneflow will be reduced by their remote locations. Furthermore, no hybrids between carnation and any other Dianthus species has ever been recorded in the wild; Carnation is an annual plant which does not form vegetative reproductive structures such as stolons, rhizomes, rootborne shoots or tubers. Carnation is semi-winter hardy and cannot survive in areas where temperatures occur below - 5 °C. Since the consent was issued in 1998 there have been no reports of the dissemination and/or establishment of GM carnations in the EU. This is a good indication that dissemination and establishment is unlikely. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE Carnations with modified flower colour may be planted in private gardens leading to cross-pollination of conventional Dianthus species. This could lead to limited dissemination in the UK. However there have been no media reports of dissemination of GM carnation in the UK in the years since the consent was granted. Annex 3 – page 6 LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: POSSIBLE If members of the public were to grow modified carnation plants in their gardens there is the possibility that some will become established. However, establishment is likely to be at a low level and require continued human intervention to maintain these plants because carnations do not survive low temperatures. Establishment in the wild, either as clones or as hybrid crosses wild Dianthus species is unlikely. In addition there have been no media reports of establishment in the UK in the years since the consent was granted 9 Carnation C/NL/97/13 Florigene Europe BV Date consent issued: Oct 1998 Date consent expires: Oct 2006 Carnation (Dianthus caryophyllus L.) lines 959A, 988A, 1226A, 1351A, 1363A, and 1400A modified for altered flower colour (and tolerance to sulphonylurea herbicides). The GM carnation is intended for cultivation by cutflower growers, flower auctions, flower wholesalers, retailers and breeders. The cut flowers will be purchased by consumers. Plants are sold as flowers, cuttings or plants. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: The genetically modified carnation intended for cultivation in the EU, therefore there is the possibility of plants being grown in the UK, most likely under glass by cutflower growers; Marketing includes selling the GM carnation line as cuttings or plants, which would allow consumers to grow them in their gardens. This could lead to pollination of conventional carnation plants leading to wild clonal populations; In the UK there are 3 native Dianthus species, however is not clear whether carnation can form viable crosses with them. Their remote habitat locations makes geneflow unlikely.. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: Dissemination through pollination is much less effective in carnation than in wild Dianthus species. Carnation pollen is not wind dispersed and can only be transferred by lepidopteran insects such as moths; The 3 Dianthus species native to the UK are not widely distributed and usually grow in more remote areas away from gardens and human habitation, therefore, if they are sexually compatible with carnation the risk of geneflow will be reduced by their remote locations. Furthermore, no hybrids between carnation and any other Dianthus species has ever been recorded in the wild; Carnation is an annual plant which does not form vegetative reproductive structures such as stolons, rhizomes, rootborne shoots or tubers. Carnation is semi-winter hardy and cannot survive in areas where temperatures occur below - 5 °C. Since the consent was issued in 1998 there have been no reports of the dissemination and/or establishment of GM carnations in the EU. This is a good indication that dissemination and establishment is unlikely. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE Carnations with modified flower colour may be planted in private gardens leading to cross-pollination of conventional Dianthus species. This could lead to limited dissemination in the UK. However there have been no media reports of dissemination of GM carnation in the UK in the years since the consent was granted. LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: POSSIBLE If members of the public were to grow modified carnation plants in their gardens there is the possibility that some will become established. However, establishment is likely to be at a low level and require continued human intervention to maintain these plants because carnations do not survive low temperatures. Establishment in the wild, either as clones or as hybrid crosses wild Dianthus species is unlikely. In addition there have been no media reports of establishment in the UK in Annex 3 – page 7 the years since the consent was granted Table 2 - Notifications authorised under Directive 2001/18/EC (DG ENV)1 Crop Type & Product Name, Trait & Likelihood of dissemination and establishment in UK Notification Use 1 NK603 Roundup Maize Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: Ready maize C/ES/00/01 The possibility exists of the unintended spillage of maize kernels. Spillage may occur at docks, during transportation, or at the processing plant. The UK climate is amenable to the growth of maize, therefore it is possible that spilled material Monsanto Tolerance to will germinate and may reach maturity (i.e. flowering stage); glyphosate herbicide. Maize is wind pollinated, therefore there is the possibility of geneflow to cultivated maize plants; Date consent The granting of consent C/ES/00/01 may increase the risk of NK603 seed being erroneously imported into the UK as issued: Use as for any other seed for cultivation, or being present accidentally in other conventional maize seeds. Oct 2004 maize, but not including cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: Date consent There are no wild relatives of maize growing in the UK, therefore there is no possibility of geneflow to native British expires: species; Oct 2014 Maize is a weak competitor outside cultivation and therefore it is not an invasive plant. Consequently if seed is spilled feral populations are unlikely to establish in the wild; Maize does not generally reach full maturity in the UK, therefore viable seed is not likely to be produced. If feral plants were to produce viable seed it is unlikely that volunteers would persist throughout the winter as maize plants are killed by frost; Maize volunteers can be easily controlled by current agronomic practices including cultivation and the use of selective (non-glyphosate) herbicides; Although pollen may be spread over long distances (up to 32km), maize pollen viability is highly dependent on temperature and desiccation. Studies have shown that although viability can be maintained for up to 2 hours, cross pollination is unlikely to extend beyond 200 m from the source. The deliberate release consent does not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if NK603 maize were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE The possibility exists that spilt grain of NK603 will germinate and flower, and due to the wind-pollinated nature of maize plants this could result in geneflow to cultivated maize populations. LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: HIGHLY UNLIKELY It is highly unlikely that NK603 will establish in the UK. Maize cannot survive without human assistance, is not capable of surviving as a weed due to past selection, and there are no wild relatives in the UK. If geneflow occurs from feral GM maize Annex 3 – page 8 2 Maize C/DE/02/9 Maize line MON 863 and maize hybrid MON 863 x MON 810 Monsanto Insect-protected maize Uses as for any other maize but not for cultivation. Commission decision 8 August 2005 populations to cultivated maize plants the risk of hybrid seed production is low because most UK maize is harvested before viable seed set. In the case of cross-pollination to grain maize the risk of establishment is again highly unlikely because maize cobs are generally harvested whole with minimum loss of individual kernels. Furthermore, if kernels do germinate from spilled seed during harvesting the volunteer plants are unlikely to persist because they are easily killed by frost. Furthermore, it would be illegal and subject to action by the appointed enforcement body. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: There exists the possibility of the unintended spillage of maize kernels. Spillage may occur at docks, during transportation, or at the processing plant. The UK climate favours the growth of maize, therefore it is possible that spilled material will germinate and reach maturity (flowering); Maize is wind pollinated, therefore there is the possibility of geneflow to cultivated maize plants; The granting of consent C/DE/02/9 may increase the risk of MON 863 and maize hybrid MON 863 x MON 810 seed being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation, or being present accidentally in other conventional maize seeds. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: There are no wild relatives of maize growing in the UK, therefore there is no possibility of geneflow to native British species; Maize is a weak competitor outside cultivation and therefore it is not an invasive plant. Consequently if seed is spilled feral populations are unlikely to establish in the wild; Maize does not generally reach full maturity in the UK, so viable seed is not likely to be produced. If feral plants were to produce viable seed it is unlikely that volunteers would persist throughout the winter as maize plants are killed by frost; Maize volunteers are easily controlled by current agronomic practices including cultivation and the use of selective herbicides; Although pollen may be spread over long distances, maize pollen viability is highly dependent on temperature and desiccation. The deliberate release consent would not extend to cultivation, it would, therefore, be an offence to allow MON863XMON810 to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. Consent not yet issued LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE The possibility exists that spilt grain of MON 863 and maize hybrid MON 863 x MON 810 will germinate and flower. Due to the wind-pollinated nature of maize plants this could result in geneflow to cultivated maize populations. 3 Oilseed rape Roundup Ready LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: HIGHLY UNLIKELY It is highly unlikely that MON 863 and maize hybrid MON 863 x MON 810 will establish in the UK. Maize cannot survive without human assistance, is not capable of surviving as a weed due to past selection, and there are no wild relatives in the UK. . Furthermore, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: Annex 3 – page 9 C/NL/98/11 oilseed rape, event GT73 Monsanto Commission decision 31 August 2005 Consent not yet issued The proposed uses of GT73 are the same as for any other oilseed rape, but do not include cultivation in the EU. Oilseed rape seed is particularly prone to unintended spillage due to its small size. Monsanto acknowledge that there is a very small possibility of unintended release of GT73 during transport. Spillage could occur at docks, during transportation, or at processing plants. Although most GT73 imported into the UK will be crushed in the port area, reducing the likelihood of seed loss, a small amount is likely to be transported by river for crushing elsewhere. Oilseed rape is well suited to the UK climate and can grow under a wide range of conditions, therefore it is highly likely that some spilled material will germinate and such plants could easily reach maturity; Oilseed rape seeds can lie dormant for many years until the appearance of favourable conditions, at which time they germinate; Oilseed rape is wind and insect pollinated, therefore there is the possibility of geneflow to feral and cultivated oilseed rape populations. Such geneflow can occur over long distances; Oilseed rape is capable of forming natural crosses with a number of wild relatives found in the UK (including Brassica rapa, Brassica juncea, Hirschfeldia incana, Raphanus raphanistrum, and Sinapis arvensis), although in reality only crosses with B. rapa are likely to form viable offspring; Feral populations of GT73 oilseed rape and OSR hybrids which have inherited the herbicide tolerance gene may be more difficult to control due to tolerance to glyphosate herbicides; The granting of consent C/NL/98/11 may increase the possibility of GT73 seed being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation or being present accidentally in other oilseed rape seeds for cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: The frequency of gene flow to wild relatives under natural conditions is considered very low. In addition the fitness of the interspecific hybrids is generally reduced compared to the parents and the stable introgression of the herbicide tolerance trait into weed species is extremely difficult; Any viable progeny of an hybrid oilseed rape-wild relative carrying the herbicide tolerance gene can be controlled by current agronomic practices, either mechanically by cultivation in the rotation cycle, or by broad-leaf herbicides other than glyphosate. The deliberate release consent would not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if GT73 oilseed rape was allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE Due to the small size of OSR seeds the possibility of spillage of GT73 during loading, unloading and transportation is fairly high. Evidence of this can be seen at installations such as docks and processing plants, and it is especially noticeable along roads where small feral populations of conventional OSR are often seen growing. OSR is wind and insect pollinated and geneflow can occur over large distances, leading to fertilisation of OSR crops and wild relatives. LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: POSSIBLE VIA DISSEMINATION Oilseed rape is well suited to climatic conditions in the UK. Once dissemination has taken place, either via seed dispersal or by geneflow, feral populations of OSR can subsist for many years. OSR seeds can remain dormant for a number of years until subject to the right conditions when they germinate, grow and set seed, often in a very short time. Intra-specific crosses of Annex 3 – page 10 4 Maize C/NL/00/10 Mycogen Seeds; Pioneer Hi-Bred Lepidopteran resistant and glufosinate tolerant Commission decision 3 November 2005 Consent not yet issued 1507 Maize Import of products derived from 1507 maize seed, including import of 1507 maize grain produced outside the EU. Not for cultivation. GT73 and conventional OSR are likely to be more difficult to control in farmland. The offspring from inter-specific OSR/related species crosses often exhibit reduced fertility and vigour, however such hybrids are likely to have a selective advantage in the presence of glyphosate herbicide, making them more difficult to control and more likely to persist. However, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: The possibility of the unintended spillage of maize kernels exists. Spillage may occur at docks, during transportation, or at processing plants. The UK climate favours the growth of maize, therefore it is possible that spilled material will germinate and reach maturity; Maize is wind pollinated, therefore there is the possibility of geneflow to cultivated maize plants; Feral populations of 1507 maize may be more difficult to control than conventional maize due to tolerance to glufosinate herbicides; The granting of consent C/NL/00/10 may increase the risk of 1507 maize seed being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation or being present accidentally in other conventional maize seeds. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: There are no wild relatives of maize growing in the UK, therefore there is no possibility of geneflow to native British species; Maize is a weak competitor outside cultivation and therefore it is not an invasive plant. Consequently if seed is spilled feral populations are unlikely to establish in the wild; Maize does not generally reach full maturity in the UK, so viable seed is not likely to be produced. If feral plants were to produce viable seed it is unlikely that volunteers would persist throughout the winter as maize plants are killed by frost; Maize volunteers are easily controlled by current agronomic practices including cultivation and the use of selective herbicides; Although pollen may be spread over long distances, maize pollen viability is highly dependent on temperature and desiccation. The deliberate release consent would not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if 1507 maize were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE The possibility exists that spilt grain of 1507 maize will germinate and flower. Due to the wind-pollinated nature of maize plants this could result in geneflow to cultivated maize populations. Although feral populations will not be controlled by glufosinate herbicides other management techniques will be able to control them. LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: HIGHLY UNLIKELY It is highly unlikely that 1507 maize will establish in the UK. Maize cannot survive without human assistance, is not capable of surviving as a weed due to past selection, and there are no wild relatives in the UK. . Furthermore, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Annex 3 – page 11 1 http://gmoinfo.jrc.it/gmc_browse.asp Table 3 – Notifications pending under Directive 2001/18/EC (DG ENV) with use including cultivation1. Crop Type & Product Name, Trait Likelihood of cultivation/establishment in UK if authorization is granted Notification & Use 1 Maize NK603 × MON810 Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: Genetically modified C/ES/04/01 NK603 × MON810 is intended for use, including cultivation, in any geographical area in the EU currently producing or (Monsanto) maize processing maize; Maize is currently grown in the UK, primarily in the form of forage maize for feeding to cattle, although a small Herbicide (glyphosate) quantity of grain maize is also produced in the UK. (Note: although NK603 × MON810 is principally a grain maize the tolerance & vegetative parts can be used as animal feed); Lepidopteran insect The simplified weed control offered by glyphosate tolerance may appeal to UK growers wishing to assess the new resistance. technology. There may also be an economic incentive, and possibly environmental benefits depending on the types of herbicides used on the conventional comparator; For import and use, including cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: The insect resistance properties of NK603 × MON810 will not provide any benefit to UK growers due to the absence of Lepidopteran pests in this country; In the UK, yields of NK603 × MON810 grain maize are likely to be significantly lower than those of conventional forage varieties which have been specially developed for UK conditions; The market for the harvested product may be restricted in the UK due to ongoing consumer opposition to GM products (but public opposition may be circumvented if the produce is fed directly to on-farm cattle, which is a likely scenario for a fodder crop). 2 Maize C/FR/96/05/10 Syngenta Seeds SAS Bt11 maize (field or sweet maize). Insect resistance Resistance to corn borers Ostrinia nubilalis and Sesamia nonagrioides using the Cry1Ab gene; LIKELIHOOD OF CULTIVATION IN UK: UNLIKELY NK603 × MON810 is unlikely to be cultivated in UK due to absence of Lepidopteran pests, potentially lower yields, and a restricted product market. However the possibility of cultivation cannot be completely discounted due to the prospect of enhanced weed control and the potential benefits to growers provided by the herbicide tolerance trait. Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: Bt11 maize is intended for use, including cultivation, throughout the EU; Maize is currently grown in the UK, primarily in the form of forage maize for feeding to cattle, although a small quantity of grain maize is also produced in the UK. (Note: although Bt11 is primarily a sweet/grain maize the vegetative parts can be used as animal feed); Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: The insect resistance properties of Bt11 would not provide any benefit to UK growers due to the lack of lepidopteran pests in this country; Annex 3 – page 12 Note: Bt11 also possesses herbicide tolerance but the scope of the notification has been limited to use without the application of glufosinate ammonium herbicides. 3 Maize C/ES/01/01 Dow AgroSciences; Mycogen Seeds; Pioneer Hi-Bred For use in the EU including cultivation. 1507 Maize Lepidopteran resistant and glufosinate tolerant maize Use of 1507 maize will include cultivation and import of grain and grain products for storage and processing into food, animal feed and industrial uses. 4 Potato C/SE/96/3501 Potato line EH92-5271 Amylogene HB Modified starch The herbicide tolerant properties of Bt11 will not provide an incentive to growers because the notification precludes the use of glufosinate ammonium herbicides; In the UK, yields of Bt11 sweet/grain maize are likely to be lower than those of conventional forage varieties which have been specially developed for UK conditions; The market for the harvested product may be restricted in the UK due to ongoing consumer opposition to GM products. (But public opposition may be circumvented if the produce is fed directly to on-farm cattle). LIKELIHOOD OF CULTIVATION IN UK: UNLIKELY Bt11 is unlikely to be cultivated in UK because neither of the two traits it exhibits (lepidopteran resistance and herbicide tolerance without the possibility of glufosinate application) will be of use to UK growers. (Note: ACRE also considered that this product is unlikely to be grown in the UK for the foreseeable future - ACRE Advice 46, Feb ‘04). However, because maize is currently grown in the UK the possibility of some Bt11 cultivation in this country cannot be completely ruled out. Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: 1507 maize is intended for use, including cultivation, in the EU; Maize is currently grown in the UK, primarily in the form of forage maize for feeding to cattle, although a small quantity of grain maize is also produced in the UK. (Note: although 1507 maize is primarily a grain maize the vegetative parts can be used as animal feed); The simplified weed control offered by glufosinate tolerance may appeal to UK growers wishing to ‘try out’ the new technology. There may also be an economic incentive, and possibly environmental benefits depending on the types of herbicides used on the conventional comparator. Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: The insect resistance properties of 1507 maize would not provide any benefit to UK growers due to the lack of Lepidopteran pests in this country; In the UK, yields of 1507 grain maize are likely to be lower than those of conventional forage varieties which have been specially developed for UK conditions; The market for the harvested product may be restricted in the UK due to ongoing consumer opposition to GM products. (But public opposition may be circumvented if the produce is fed directly to on-farm cattle). LIKELIHOOD OF CULTIVATION IN UK: UNLIKELY 1507 maize is unlikely to be cultivated in UK due to a lack of target organisms; however, the possibility of cultivation cannot be discounted because glufosinate tolerance may be seen as a valuable attribute by growers looking to simplify their crop management techniques and possibly increase their profit margins. The likelihood of cultivation will depend primarily on how suited the variety is to the UK climate (i.e. the yield potential) and whether there is a market for the produce. Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: The notification would allow the cultivation of modified line EH92-527-1 in those areas of Europe where starch potatoes and potato seed are presently grown. Although the UK does not currently produce starch potatoes, there is a thriving industry involving both ware and seed potatoes in the UK; Annex 3 – page 13 Sweden content. The UK climate is highly amenable to potato growing and potato volunteers are notoriously difficult to eradicate, therefore if potato line EH92-527-1 is grown in the UK there is a high likelihood of establishment. For cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: At present (2005/6) the UK does not have a potato starch quota. Furthermore the quotas proposed for 2006/7 do not include UK production. LIKELIHOOD OF CULTIVATION IN UK: POSSIBLE At present the starch industry in the UK is not large and the UK does not have a starch quota, therefore it is unlikely that modified potato line EH92-527-1 will be grown in this country in the next few (say 2-4) years. The possibility that the UK will receive a starch quota in the future is difficult to predict, but cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, it is also conceivable that the starch quota system will be relaxed or even abolished as an artificial barrier to trade between Member States, therefore cultivation in the UK remains a possibility in future years. 1 http://gmoinfo.jrc.it/gmc_browse.asp Table 4 - Notifications pending under Directive 2001/18/EC (DG ENV) with use not including cultivation1. Crop Type & Product Name, Trait & Likelihood of dissemination and establishment in UK if authorization is granted Notification Use 1 Carnation Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: Dianthus caryophyllus C/NL/04/02 Theoretical possibility of vegetative spread of cut flowers, leading to wild clonal populations. (Note: the possibility of L. (carnation vegetative spread from discarded plants is extremely remote. Of greater likelihood is the propagation of cuttings by Florigene Limited ‘Florigene Moonlite’) some members of the public. Anecdotal reports suggest that flower stems are the best place to take cuttings); with modified flower Theoretical (albeit very remote) possibility of seed formation and dispersal from cut flowers as a result of self Modified flower colour. fertilization or fertilization with pollen from an external source; colour Theoretical possibility of pollen transfer from cut flowers leading to fertilization and seed formation by recipient plants. Not for cultivation in (Note: there is no evidence of hybridisation between carnation and wild Dianthus species, but there is the possibility of the EU. hybridisation with other cultivated carnations); In the UK there are 3 native Dianthus species: Dianthus armeria (Deptford Pink - in the UK this species is classified as ‘vulnerable’), Dianthus deltoides (Maiden Pink) and Dianthus gratianopolitanus (Cheddar Pink). It is not clear, however, whether carnation can form viable crosses with these species. In addition there are a large number of Dianthus species which are grown as flowering plants in gardens. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: Cut carnation flowers have an extremely low to negligible risk of gene dispersal; Seed development takes 5 weeks, whereas cut carnation flowers last a maximum of only 3 weeks; Dissemination through pollination is much less effective in carnation than in wild Dianthus species. Carnation pollen is not wind dispersed and can only be transferred by lepidopteran insects such as moths; Annex 3 – page 14 The 3 Dianthus species native to the UK are not widely distributed and usually grow in more remote areas away from gardens and human habitation, therefore, if they are sexually compatible with carnation the risk of geneflow will be reduced by their remote locations; No hybrids between carnation and any other Dianthus species has ever been recorded in the wild; Carnation is an annual plant which does not form vegetative reproductive structures such as stolons, rhizomes, rootborne shoots or tubers. Carnation is semi-winter hardy and cannot survive in areas where temperatures occur below - 5 °C. The deliberate release consent would not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if ‘Florigene Moonlight’ were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE Genetically modified carnations have a very low risk of dissemination via unassisted vegetative spread, pollen transfer or seed formation. However the novelty factor of blue carnations may encourage some members of the public to take cuttings; some of these cuttings may root successfully leading to small clonal populations in private gardens. This, in turn, may enhance the risk of geneflow to recipient non-GM carnations and other Dianthus species, also in cultivation. 2 Cotton C/NL/04/01 Dow AgroSciences; Agrigenetics Insect resistance Insect resistant cotton events 281-24-236 and 3006-210-23. Not for cultivation in the EU. LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: POSSIBLE If members of the public succeed in propagating cuttings from the cut stems of modified carnation plants there is a possibility that they will become established in gardens. Establishment is likely to be at a low level and require continued human intervention to maintain these plants because carnations do not survive low temperatures. Establishment in the wild, either as clones or as hybrid crosses wild Dianthus species is unlikely. Furthermore, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: There is the possibility of unintended spillage of cotton seed. Given the appropriate conditions of warmth and moisture this seed could germinate and grow. Such conditions may exist (on a very limited basis, e.g. heat vents) within the vicinity of docks or processing plants. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: Spilled cotton seed is highly unlikely to germinate and establish in the UK due to the unfavourable climatic conditions; If cotton seed did germinate and establish the risk of geneflow is non-existent as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild species in the UK. The deliberate release consent would not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if IR cotton events 281-24-236 and 3006-210-23 were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION/ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: EXTREMELY UNLIKELY It is extremely unlikely that cotton events 281-24-236 and 3006-210-23 would disseminate and establish in the UK. In the unlikely event that spilled seed were to germinate the feral population would necessarily be very small as it would be Annex 3 – page 15 3 Oilseed rape C/BE/96/01 Oilseed rape Ms8xRf3 (developed from the spring variety Drakkar) Bayer BioScience Glufosinate ammonium tolerance Import in the EU for all uses as any other oilseed rape (food, feed and industrial uses). Note: as of Dec 2004 the scope of the application was reduced and no longer includes cultivation. restricted to the specific location giving rise to the microclimate. If the plants did reach maturity there is no risk of geneflow outside these small areas as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild relatives in the UK. Furthermore, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: Oilseed rape seed is particularly prone to unintended spillage due to its small size. Spillage could occur at docks, during transportation, or at processing plants. Oilseed rape is well suited to the UK climate and can grow under a wide range of conditions, therefore it is quite likely that spilled material will germinate and could easily reach maturity; Oilseed rape seeds can lie dormant for many years until the appearance of favourable conditions, at which time they germinate; Oilseed rape is wind and insect pollinated, therefore there is the possibility of geneflow to feral and cultivated oilseed rape populations. Such geneflow can occur over long distances; Oilseed rape is capable of forming natural crosses with a number of wild relatives found in the UK, including: Brassica rapa, Brassica juncea, Hirschfeldia incana, Raphanus raphanistrum, and Sinapis arvensis (information from notification C/BE/96/01. Under natural conditions oilseed rape is only likely to cross with B. rapa); Feral populations of Ms8xRf3 oilseed rape and OSR hybrids which have inherited the herbicide tolerance gene may be more difficult to control due to tolerance to glufosinate-ammonium herbicides; The granting of consent C/BE/96/01 may increase the possibility of Ms8xRf3 seed being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation, or being present accidentally in other oilseed rape seeds for cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: The frequency of gene flow to wild relatives under natural conditions is considered very low. In addition the fitness of the interspecific hybrids is generally reduced compared to the parents and the stable introgression of the herbicide tolerance trait into weed species is extremely difficult; Any viable progeny of an hybrid oilseed rape-wild relative carrying the herbicide tolerance gene can be controlled by current agronomic practices, either mechanically by cultivation in the rotation cycle, or by broad-leaf herbicides other than glufosinate ammonium. The deliberate release consent would not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if Ms8xRf3 oilseed rape were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE Due to the small size of OSR seeds the possibility of spillage of Ms8xRf3 during loading, unloading and transportation is fairly high. Evidence of this can be seen at installations such as docks and processing plants, and it is especially noticeable along roads where small feral populations of conventional OSR can often be seen growing. OSR is wind and insect pollinated and geneflow can occur over large distances, leading to fertilisation of OSR crops and wild relatives. LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: POSSIBLE Oilseed rape is well suited to climatic conditions in the UK. Once dissemination has taken place, either via seed dispersal or by geneflow, feral populations of OSR can subsist for many years. OSR seeds can remain dormant for a number of years until Annex 3 – page 16 4 Maize C/GB/02/M3/03 Genetically modified maize NK603 × MON 810 Monsanto Tolerance to Roundup herbicide (containing glyphosate), and expressing the Cry1Ab protein which confers protection from certain lepidopteran insect pests including European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis) and pink borers (Sesamia spp). For import and use, NOT including cultivation) subject to the right conditions when they germinate, grow and set seed, often in a very short time. Intra-specific crosses of Ms8xRf3 and conventional OSR are likely to be more difficult to control in farmland. The offspring from inter-specific OSR/related species crosses often exhibit reduced fertility and vigour, however such hybrids are likely to have a selective advantage in the presence of glufosinate-ammonium herbicides, making them more difficult to control and more likely to persist. However, this would constitute a breach of the consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: The possibility exists of unintended spillage of maize kernels. Spillage may occur at docks, during transportation, or at the processing plant. The UK climate favours the growth of maize, therefore it is possible that spilled material will germinate and reach maturity; Maize is wind pollinated, therefore there is the possibility of geneflow to cultivated maize plants; The granting of consent C/GB/02/M3/03 may increase the possibility of NK603 × MON 810 seed being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation or being accidentally present in other maize seeds for cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: There are no wild relatives of maize growing in the UK, therefore there is no possibility of geneflow to native British species; Maize is a weak competitor outside cultivation and therefore it is not an invasive plant. Consequently if seed is spilled feral populations are unlikely to establish in the wild; Maize does not generally reach full maturity in the UK, so viable seed is not likely to be produced. If feral plants were to produce viable seed it is unlikely that volunteers would persist throughout the winter as maize plants are killed by frost; Maize volunteers are easily controlled by current agronomic practices including cultivation and the use of selective herbicides; Although pollen may be spread over long distances, maize pollen viability is highly dependent on temperature and desiccation. The deliberate release consent would not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if NK603XMON810 maize were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE The possibility exists that spilt grain of NK603 × MON 810 will germinate and flower. Due to the wind-pollinated nature of maize plants this could result in geneflow to cultivated maize populations. LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: HIGHLY UNLIKELY It is highly unlikely that NK603 × MON 810 will establish in the UK. Maize cannot survive without human assistance, is not capable of surviving as a weed due to past selection, and there are no wild relatives in the UK. Furthermore, this would constitute a breach of the consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Annex 3 – page 17 Table 5 - Notifications pending under Directive 1829/2003 (DG SANCO) with use including cultivation, having been transferred from 2001/18/EC.1 Crop Type & Product Name, Trait & Likelihood of cultivation/establishment in UK if authorization is granted Notification Use 1 Roundup Ready maize Maize Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: line NK603. C/ES/03/01 NK603 maize is intended for use, including cultivation, in any geographical area currently producing or processing (Monsanto) maize; Herbicide (glyphosate) Maize is currently grown in the UK, primarily in the form of forage maize for feeding to cattle, although a small tolerance. quantity of grain maize is also produced in the UK. (Note: although NK603 is primarily a grain maize the vegetative parts can be used as animal feed); For use in the EU The simplified weed control offered by glyphosate tolerance may appeal to UK growers wishing to ‘try out’ the new including cultivation. technology. There may also be an economic incentive, and possibly environmental benefits depending on the types of herbicides used on the conventional comparator; Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: In the UK, yields of NK603 grain maize are likely to be lower than those of conventional forage varieties which have been specially developed for UK conditions; The market for the harvested product may be restricted in the UK due to ongoing consumer opposition to GM products. (But public opposition may be circumvented if the produce is fed directly to on-farm cattle). 2 Fodder beet C/DK/97/01 Danisco Seed; DLF Trifolium A/S; Monsanto Transferred from 2001/18/EC. Subsequently withdrawn Roundup Ready fodder beet derived from line A5/15 For use as any other fodder beet, including cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF CULTIVATION IN UK: POSSIBLE NK603 maize has the potential to be cultivated in the UK. This conclusion is due mainly to the fact that glyphosate tolerance may be seen as a valuable attribute by growers looking to simplify their crop management techniques and possibly increase their profit margins. The extent to which NK603 is cultivated will depend primarily on how suited the variety is to the UK climate (i.e. the yield potential) and whether there is a market for the produce, taking into account public opinion and direct on-farm feeding to cattle. Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: RR fodder beet line A5/15 is intended for use as any other fodder beet, including cultivation, in the EU; Fodder beet is currently grown widely throughout the UK; The simplified weed control offered by glyphosate tolerance may appeal to many UK growers. There may also be an economic incentive in terms of lower chemical inputs and reduced man-hours. Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: The market for the harvested product may be restricted in the UK due to potential consumer opposition to GM products. (However, public opposition may be circumvented if the produce is fed directly to on-farm cattle - a likely scenario for this type of crop). LIKELIHOOD OF CULTIVATION IN UK: HIGHLY LIKELY If consent C/DK/97/01 is granted there is a high likelihood that a proportion of UK growers will wish to adopt this Annex 3 – page 18 3 Cotton C/ES/97/01 Roundup Ready cotton line derived from Event 1445 Monsanto Transferred from 2001/18/EC. Subsequently withdrawn 3 Cotton C/ES/96/02 For use as any other cotton. Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: Spilled cotton seed is highly unlikely to germinate and establish in the UK due to the unfavourable climatic conditions; If cotton seed did germinate and establish the risk of geneflow is non-existent as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild species in the UK. Insect-Protected cotton line derived from Event 531 Monsanto Transferred from 2001/18/EC. Subsequently withdrawn technology. Adoption rates are likely to be influenced to some extent by consumer preference, but if growers feed the crop directly to their own livestock (a scenario which is likely) they are likely to circumvent public opposition and this will increase the likely uptake of this technology. Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: RR cotton line event 1445 is intended for use as any other cotton; There is the possibility of unintended spillage of cotton seed. Given the appropriate conditions of warmth and moisture this seed could germinate and grow. Such conditions may exist (on a very limited basis, e.g. heat vents) within the vicinity of docks or processing plants. For use as any other cotton. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION/ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: EXTREMELY UNLIKELY Due to the unfavourable climate cotton is not grown in the UK, however there is the possibility of seed spillage. In the event of seed spillage it is extremely unlikely that RR cotton event 1445 would disseminate and establish in the UK. In the unlikely event that spilled seed was to germinate the feral population would necessarily be very small as it would be restricted to the specific location giving rise to the microclimate. If the plants did reach maturity there is no risk of geneflow outside these small areas as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild species in the UK. Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: RR cotton line event 531 is intended for use as any other cotton; There is the possibility of unintended spillage of cotton seed. Given the appropriate conditions of warmth and moisture this seed could germinate and grow. Such conditions may exist (on a very limited basis, e.g. heat vents) within the vicinity of docks or processing plants. Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: Spilled cotton seed is highly unlikely to germinate and establish in the UK due to the unfavourable climatic conditions; If cotton seed did germinate and establish the risk of geneflow is non-existent as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild species in the UK. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION/ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: EXTREMELY UNLIKELY Due to the unfavourable climatic conditions cotton is not grown in the UK, however there is the possibility of spillage of seed. In the event of seed spillage it is extremely unlikely that RR cotton event 1445 would disseminate and establish in the UK. In the unlikely event that spilled seed was to germinate the feral population would necessarily be very small as it would be restricted to the specific location giving rise to the microclimate. If the plants did reach maturity there is no risk of geneflow outside these small areas as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild species in the UK. Annex 3 – page 19 Table 6 - Notifications PENDING under Directive 1829/2003 (DG SANCO) with use NOT including cultivation, having been transferred from 2001/18/EC 1 Crop Type & Product Name, Trait & Likelihood of dissemination and establishment in UK if authorization is granted Notification Use 1 Glufosinate tolerant Cotton Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: Cotton Transformation C/ES/04/02 There is the possibility of unintended spillage of cotton seed. Given the appropriate conditions of warmth and moisture event LLCotton25 this seed could germinate and grow. Such conditions may exist (on a very limited basis, e.g. heat vents) within the Bayer CropScience vicinity of docks or processing plants. For import only. Not Transferred from for cultivation in the Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: EU. 2001/18/EC Spilled cotton seed is highly unlikely to germinate and establish in the UK due to the unfavourable climatic conditions; If cotton seed did germinate and establish the risk of geneflow is non-existent as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild species in the UK. The deliberate release consent would not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if LLCotton25 were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. 2 Oilseed rape C/GB/04/M5/4 Glufosinate Tolerant oilseed rape T45 Bayer CropScience For import only. Not for cultivation in the EU. Transferred from 2001/18/EC LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION/ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: EXTREMELY UNLIKELY It is highly unlikely that cotton event LLCotton25 would disseminate and establish in the UK. In the unlikely event that spilled seed was to germinate the feral population would necessarily be very small as it would be restricted to the specific location giving rise to the microclimate. If the plants did reach maturity there is no risk of geneflow outside these small areas as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild species in the UK. Furthermore, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: Oilseed rape seed is particularly prone to unintended spillage due to its small size. Spillage could occur at docks, during transportation, or at processing plants. Oilseed rape is well suited to the UK climate and can grow under a wide range of conditions, therefore it is quite likely that any spilled material will germinate and could easily reach maturity; Oilseed rape seeds can lie dormant for many years until the appearance of favourable conditions, at which time they germinate; Oilseed rape is wind and insect pollinated, therefore there is the possibility of geneflow to feral and cultivated oilseed rape populations. Geneflow can occur over long distances; Oilseed rape is capable of forming natural crosses with a number of wild relatives found in the UK, including: Brassica rapa, Brassica juncea, Hirschfeldia incana, Raphanus raphanistrum, and Sinapis arvensis; Feral populations of T45 oilseed rape and OSR hybrids which have inherited the herbicide tolerance gene may be more difficult to control due to tolerance to glyphosate herbicides; The granting of consent C/GB/04/M5/4 may increase the possibility of T45 seed being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation or being present accidentally in other oilseed rape seeds for cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: Annex 3 – page 20 The frequency of gene flow to wild relatives under natural conditions is considered very low. In addition the fitness of the interspecific hybrids is generally reduced compared to the parents and the stable introgression of the herbicide tolerance trait into weed species is extremely difficult; Any viable progeny of a hybrid oilseed rape-wild relative carrying the herbicide tolerance gene can be controlled by current agronomic practices, either mechanically by cultivation in the rotation cycle, or by broad-leaf herbicides other than glyphosate. The deliberate release consent would not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if T45 oilseed rape were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: POSSIBLE Due to the small size of OSR seeds the possibility of spillage of T45 during loading, unloading and transportation is fairly high. Evidence of this can be seen at installations such as docks and processing plants, and it is especially noticeable along roads where small feral populations of conventional OSR are often seen growing. OSR is wind and insect pollinated and geneflow can occur over large distances, leading to fertilisation of OSR crops and wild relatives. 3 Rice C/GB/03/M5/3 Bayer CropScience Transferred from 2001/18/EC Glufosinate-tolerant Rice, LLRICE62 Import in the EU for all uses as any other rice (food, feed and industrial uses) but no seeds will be imported for cultivation into the Europe. LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: POSSIBLE Oilseed rape is well suited to climatic conditions in the UK. Once dissemination has taken place, either via seed dispersal or by geneflow, feral populations of OSR can subsist for many years. OSR seeds can remain dormant for a number of years until subject to the right conditions when they germinate, grow and set seed, often in a very short time. Intra-specific crosses of T45 and conventional OSR are likely to be more difficult to control in farmland. The offspring from inter-specific OSR/related species crosses often exhibit reduced fertility and vigour, however such hybrids are likely to have a selective advantage in the presence of glyphosate herbicide, making them more difficult to control and more likely to persist. However, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: There is the possibility of unintended spillage of LLRICE62 seed. Given the appropriate conditions of warmth and moisture this seed could germinate and grow. Such conditions may exist within the vicinity of docks or processing plants, but this is likely to be on a very limited basis (e.g. heat vents). Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: Spilled rice seed is highly unlikely to germinate and establish in the UK due to the unfavourable climatic conditions; Most commodity rice is imported as non-viable grain (milled rice grain), therefore the risk of spilled LLRICE62 germinating is extremely low; If rice seed did germinate and establish the risk of geneflow is non-existent as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild species in the UK. The deliberate release consent would not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if LLRICE62 were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. Annex 3 – page 21 LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION IN UK: HIGHLY UNLIKELY It is highly unlikely that viable LLRICE62 would disseminate in the UK. If spillage were to occur it is likely that the seed would be in a processed form which, even given the right conditions of heat and moisture, would not be capable of germination. 4 Sugar Beet C/DE/00/8 Roundup Ready Sugar Beet derived from Event H7-1 Monsanto Transferred from 2001/18/EC 5 Cotton C/ES/99/01 Stoneville Pedigreed Seed Company Transferred from 2001/18/EC. Subsequently withdrawn For use as any other sugar beet, including cultivation. Herbicide tolerant BXN cotton lines 10215 and 10222. For import only. (“No growing for experimental or commercial purposes will be done”) LIKELIHOOD OF ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: EXTREMELY UNLIKELY In the highly unlikely event that spilled seed was to germinate any feral populations would necessarily be very small as they would be restricted to the specific location giving rise to the microclimate. If, in the highly unlikely event that plants did reach maturity there is no risk of geneflow outside these small areas as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild relatives in the UK. . Furthermore, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: RR sugar beet event H7-1 is intended for use as any other sugar beet, including cultivation, in the EU; Sugar beet is currently grown in several areas of the UK; The simplified weed control offered by glyphosate tolerance may appeal to many UK growers. There may also be an economic incentive in terms of lower chemical inputs and reduced man-hours. Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: The market for the harvested product may be restricted in the UK due to potential consumer opposition to GM products. LIKELIHOOD OF CULTIVATION IN UK: POSSIBLE If consent C/DE/00/8 is granted there is a high likelihood that a proportion of UK growers will wish to adopt this technology. With sugar beet, however, there is an additional consideration which must be taken into account, and this is the influence of British Sugar PLC who currently control all UK sugar beet production. In the present consumer climate it is unlikely that British Sugar will wish to adopt GM technology due to lack of consumer demand, however, it is possible that this position will change in the future. Grounds FOR possible UK dissemination/establishment: There is the possibility of unintended spillage of cotton seed. Given the appropriate conditions of warmth and moisture this seed could germinate and grow. Such conditions may exist (on a very limited basis, e.g. heat vents) within the vicinity of docks or processing plants. Grounds AGAINST possible UK dissemination/establishment: Spilled cotton seed is highly unlikely to germinate and establish in the UK due to the unfavourable climatic conditions; If cotton seed did germinate and establish the risk of geneflow is non-existent as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild species in the UK. The deliberate release consent would not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if BXN cotton lines 10215 and 10222 were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. Annex 3 – page 22 6 Oilseed Rape C/DE/96/5 Bayer CropScience Transferred from 2001/18/EC. Subsequently withdrawn Glufosinate tolerant winter oilseed rape Falcon GS40/90 pHoe6/Ac For use as any other OSR, including cultivation. Note: as of Dec 2004 the scope of the application was reduced to no longer include cultivation. 7 Oilseed Rape C/DE/98/6 Glufosinate tolerant Oilseed Rape Liberator pHoe6/Ac Bayer CropScience Transferred from 2001/18/EC. Subsequently withdrawn For use as any other OSR, including cultivation. Note: as of Dec 2004 the scope of the application was LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION/ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: EXTREMELY UNLIKELY It is highly unlikely that BXN cotton lines 10215 and 10222 would disseminate and establish in the UK. In the unlikely event that spilled seed was to germinate the feral population would necessarily be very small as it would be restricted to the specific location giving rise to the microclimate. If the plants did reach maturity there is no risk of geneflow outside these small areas as there are no sexually compatible crops or wild species in the UK. Furthermore, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: Falcon GS40/90 pHoe6/Ac is intended for use as any other OSR, including cultivation, in the EU; Winter oilseed rape is currently widely grown throughout the UK; The simplified weed control offered by glufosinate tolerance may appeal to many UK growers. There may also be an economic incentive in terms of lower chemical inputs and reduced man-hours. The granting of consent C/DE/96/5 may increase the possibility of Falcon GS40/90 pHoe6/Ac being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation, or being present accidentally in other oilseed rape seeds for cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: The market for the harvested product may be restricted in the UK due to potential consumer opposition to GM products. The deliberate release consent would not authorize cultivation in Europe, it would therefore be an offence if Falcon GS40/90 pHoe6/Ac oilseed rape were allowed to persist in the environment either as a result of spillage or inadvertent cultivation. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION/ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: POSSIBLE If consent C/DE/96/5 is granted there is a high likelihood that a proportion of UK growers will wish to adopt this technology. The deciding factor will be whether or not there is a market for the crop, and this will depend on the attitude of the crushing companies, which in turn is likely to be influenced by consumer preferences. A major factors influencing consumer preference may be the use the oil is put to (e.g. food versus industrial use). Furthermore, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Grounds FOR possible UK cultivation/establishment: Liberator pHoe6/Ac is intended for use as any other OSR, including cultivation, in the EU; Winter oilseed rape is currently widely grown throughout the UK; The simplified weed control offered by glufosinate tolerance may appeal to many UK growers. There may also be an economic incentive in terms of lower chemical inputs and reduced man-hours. The granting of consent C/DE/98/6 may increase the possibility of Liberator pHoe6/Ac being erroneously imported into the UK as seed for cultivation, or being present accidentally in other oilseed rape seeds for cultivation. Grounds AGAINST possible UK cultivation/establishment: The market for the harvested product may be restricted in the UK due to potential consumer opposition to GM products. LIKELIHOOD OF DISSEMINATION/ESTABLISHMENT IN UK: POSSIBLE Annex 3 – page 23 reduced to no longer include cultivation. If consent C/DE/98/6 is granted there is a high likelihood that a proportion of UK growers will wish to adopt this technology. The deciding factor will be whether or not there is a market for the crop, and this will depend on the attitude of the crushing companies, which in turn is likely to be influenced by consumer preferences. A major factor influencing consumer preference may be the use the oil is put to (e.g. food versus industrial use). However, it would constitute a breach of consent and would be subject to enforcement action by the appointed enforcement authority. Annex 3 – page 24