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Spain’s property market Wobbly foundations Mar 8th 2012, 16:45 by F.B. and J.R. | MADRID “IF SOMEBODY wants to pay, the bank is going to try to help them,” beams the fresh-faced manager of a big lender’s branch in Rio Rosas, an upmarket neighbourhood of Madrid. His branch is a busy place, even though it extended not one mortgage last year. A big part of its business now is focused on cutting non-performing loans (NPLs), loans on which customers have fallen three months or more into arrears. Banks hate these not just because they want their money back. Once a loan is classified as non-performing, the bank is obliged to set aside provisions against it. If too many pile up then investors and creditors get antsy. Spanish banks have already had to set aside billions to cover losses on €323 billion of loans made to property developers; in February they were told by their regulator to set aside even more. But a growing worry is that the rot may spread to entirely different categories of loans, such as mortgages, personal loans and those made to small businesses. Until now banks have set aside almost nothing to cover potential losses on these assets. Indeed, NPLs on Spain’s €613 billion of mortgages are lower now than they were in 2009, at around 2.6%, despite the fact that unemployment has since soared. “That is impossible, in our opinion, given the current economic environment, even considering the decline in interest rates,” says Santiago Lopez-Diaz, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas. Because these loans books are so large even small increases in bad debts are painful. Mr Diaz reckons that a onepercentage-point increase in provisions on the rest of the portfolio would force listed banks to come up with about €16 billion, or more than 10% of their current tangible equity. (This is on top of the extra provisions demanded in February.) Senior Spanish bankers say that mortgage arrears are likely to stay relatively low for several reasons. First, mortgage-lending in Spain gives banks a claim on all of their borrowers’ assets, so those who are falling behind with payments cannot just hand over the keys and walk away. Second, family networks and a large informal economy provide incomes to large numbers of people who are officially listed as unemployed. Third, most Spanish mortgages have variable rates; as long as the ECB keeps rates low, mortgages are affordable. But there are less benign explanations, too, for low NPLs. Think back to the efforts being made in that Madrid bank branch. Lenders are under political pressure to avoid foreclosures. Some banks are restructuring loans by, for instance, switching customers to interest-only mortgages, which would cut the monthly repayments by about a half. Others are consolidating credit-card debts and personal loans, by adding them onto existing mortgages. Forbearance of this sort can, in moderation, ease the pain of a downturn by helping people who are in temporary difficulties. If taken to excess, however, it can simply store up bad loans for later and make the eventual clean-up far costlier. How big a hole there is in Spanish banks depends on how deep the recession is and on how much profit banks can generate to absorb losses. Analysts at Barclays Capital reckon that uncovered losses (after accounting for a year’s worth of earnings and existing provisions) could range from zero to €137 billion in the case of a deep downturn, with the bulk of the losses still stemming from exposure to property developers. The large international banks look less vulnerable, thanks to their diversified profits. But the government will be on the hook for some losses at nationalised lenders; and if the worst were to come to pass, listed Spanish banks would have to hope that their shareholders are as willing to forgive their transgressions as they seem to be with their clients. Task 1: Spain’s property market Explain: 1. 2. 3. 4. Wobbly foundations non-performing loans name different types of loans listed banks Matching: 1. to set aside 2. many loans 3. to set aside 4. unemployment 5. the decline in 6. small increases in 7. mortgage 8. To fall behind 9. People officially listed 10. to avoid 11. to consolidate credit-card debts 12. to ease the pain 13. If taken 14. losses stem from exposure to A. bad debts are painful B. with payments C. and personal loans D. foreclosures E. pile up F. as unemployed G. to excess H. of a downturn I. provisions J. interest rates K. has soared L. billions M. property developers N. Arrears Task 2: International banking /internet source/ 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. What is international banking? Name a few reasons to bank internationally. What will the opening of an account in a reputable bank include? Who are the Gnomes of Zurich? What are the hazards of banking internationally? What is anonymous banking? What is tax evasion? What is money laundering? Letter of credit: Fill in the following text using the following vocabulary: Issuing trade credit transfer L/C buyer fee advising goods money seller A:…………………is a way of arranging ………………with a maximum of security for the …………….. Before any dispatch of ……………..the exporter/seller awaits the ……………´s opening of a L/C. The L/C is issued by the …………………………..bank, but before that the bank performs a …………..review of the applicant. When the L/C is opened, the customer instructs his bank to …………………a certain amount of money to the ……………………bank. For this service the bank will charge a ……………………………. The L/C tells the exporter exactly what he must do in order to have the ………………………………paid out. Answer Key: Task 1 Explain: 1. 2. 3. 4. Wobbly foundations – not steady non-performing loans – on which customers have fallen into arrears 3 months or more name different types of loans /mortgages, personal loans, loans to businesses/ listed banks Matching: 1. to set aside provisions 2. many loans pile up 3. to set aside billions 4. unemployment has soared 5. the decline in interest rates 6. small increases in bad debts are painful 7. mortgage arrears 8. To fall behind with payments 9. People officially listed as unemployed 10. to avoid foreclosures 11. to consolidate credit-card debts and personal loans 12. to ease the pain of a downturn 13. If taken to excess 14. losses stem from exposure to property developers Task 2 1.What is an international bank? a financial entity that offers financial services, such as payment accounts and lending opportunities, to foreign clients synonym: offshore banking Benefits of International Banking International banking is often used to invest in developing economies or for tax- and businessplanning benefits. Hazards of International Banking Corruption and the economic instability of a country are some of the hazards associated with international banking. Read more: What is the definition of international banking? | Answerbag http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/1866816#ixzz2Noosx700 2. Few reasons to bank internationally: use international banks to shelter their money from their home country's income and estate taxes 4. What will opening an account in a reputable bank include The bank will confirm your identity and the identities of anyone who has an ownership interest in your money. Like a good father, the bank will ask you about your intentions. Why do you need an international bank account? What does your business do? The bank will inquire about the origin of your deposits, especially very large ones. Where'd you get that $756 million, son? Hopefully not from that big heist in downtown Rome. The bank will ask for references. Are you a reputable individual or company? The bank will analyse how risky a customer you would be. Can you or your company pay back loans? 5.What are the hazards of banking internationally: Hazards of International Banking Corruption and the economic instability of a country are some of the hazards associated with international banking. currency can change value Some foreign banks are not insured in US Collateral damage /Unintended damage, injuries, or deaths caused by an action, especially unintended civilian casualties caused by a military operation./=vedlejší škody Abusive tax shelter – zneužívající danové zvýhodnění Letter of credit: Fill in the following text using the vocabulary from the power point: A letter of credit…is a way of arranging export …trade……………………with a maximum of security for the …, seller………………….. Before any dispatch of …goods…..the exporter awaits the ……, buyer, …´s opening of a L/C. The L/C is issued by the ……issuing, …………..bank, but before that the bank performs a …credit………..review of the applicant. When the L/C is opened, the customer instructs his bank to …transfer, ………………a certain amount of money to the …advising…………………bank. For this service the bank will charge a ……fee………………………. The L/C tells the exporter exactly what he must do in order to have the …money………………paid out.