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PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) CONCEPT STAGE Report No.: AB6376 Project Name Region Sector Project ID Borrower(s) Implementing Agency Environment Category Date PID Prepared Estimated Date of Appraisal Authorization Estimated Date of Board Approval Fiscal and Financial Development EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Central government administration (50%);General finance sector (50%) P122998 RUSSIAN FEDERATION The Ministry of Finance and the Federal Tax Service [ ] A [ ] B [X] C [ ] FI [ ] TBD (to be determined) February 17, 2011 September 28, 2011 December 8, 2011 1. Key development issues and rationale for Bank involvement The Russia’s economy grew briskly at an annual growth rate of about 6.9 percent and most citizens enjoyed improvements in income and living standards during 1999-2008. On the heels of sound fiscal management, strong macroeconomic fundamentals, and favorable external environment, unemployment reached a low of 5.4 percent and the national headcount poverty rate was nearly cut in half from 2002 to 2007, bringing better lives to 12.5 million people. The Russian Federation advanced to become a top-ten world economy in dollar GDP, current account, and federal budget surpluses. International reserves peaked at USD 584 billion in August 2008, the third highest in the world. Despite this background of strong macroeconomic performance, the Russian economy remained vulnerable. Russia maintained a narrow industrial base, and budget revenues depended on the price of oil, gas, and other minerals, which continue to constitute about one third of total budget revenues and about two thirds of Russia’s exports. Of the stock market capitalization, two thirds was concentrated in oil and gas or related stocks, amplifying the transmission of external oil shocks to the domestic economy. As wage growth began to outpace productivity gains and the real effective exchange rate rose, Russian firms operating in nonenergy sectors had to cope with rising pressures from foreign competition. The impact of the global crisis on the real economy was swift and deep: the decline in global demand, collapse of oil prices, reversal of capital flows, and tightening of credit triggered a sharp slowdown of the Russian economy in the fourth quarter of 2008, followed by a severe contraction in 2009 across all sectors. With the sudden reversal in capital inflows and difficulties in access to financing, Russian banks found themselves in a vulnerable position to weather the financial turmoil. The social impact of the crisis was also significant: rising unemployment, falling incomes, and higher poverty rates. Simulations of the impact of crisis indicate that the number of poor people reached almost 25 million, up more than seven million from the pre-crisis normal growth scenario. Russia is currently overcoming the effects of the crisis precipitated by the global financial and economic downturn. Revenue shortfalls across all government levels, inefficient budget spending and weak investment in public infrastructure modernization, rigid financial management models in public institutions—all these factors are hampering the government's efforts to pursue an effective fiscal and economic policy. These problems are especially acute at the regional and local levels, where they are exacerbated by a weak revenue base, under-funded mandates and insufficient skills in public finance management. Problems of a declining natural resource base, demographic changes and systemic weaknesses in the financial systems could also threaten fiscal stability. These challenges are not new, but they have been exposed and aggravated the financial crisis, making its consequences more severe than anticipated. Over the past several years, the Government laid the foundation for a modern public financial management system, including implementing a single treasury account, and regulation of the overall budget process. It created the Oil Stabilization Fund following best international practice (2003), reformed the regional fiscal relations and established fiscal rules for the sub-national government (2004), formulated the Concept of Administrative Reform, introduced performance management and improved service delivery (2005) and national priority projects, started to prepare and execute three-year federal budgets (from 2007). These reforms constitute a major shift from a traditional, centralized, and control-oriented budget management framework toward a modern, performance-based budget system, with a strong medium-term focus. Systemic reform of tax administration, undertaken in the last 15 years, resulted in significant progress in transforming the administrative mindset and institutional culture of the tax administration from command-and control-approach to a modern service oriented culture. Tax services have been rationalized with a focus on voluntary compliance and effective management of large taxpayers. Enforcement mechanisms were strengthened through enhanced capacity to carry our tax audits and administrative efficiency improved through automation of business processes. More recently, the Government has undertaken a broad set of reforms to raise the efficiency and effectiveness of resource use in the public sector and create more room for private sector growth. These measures span more traditional, long-standing reforms of public financial management and decentralization. But they also include areas with potentially farreaching impact on public sector performance as a whole: overhauling the organization of the public sector, improving energy efficiency and mitigating climate change, and enhancing infrastructure efficiency, especially in the railway and ICT sectors. Russia thus appears poised for another wave of important reforms that could significantly modernize and strengthen public sector performance. The Government is also making all necessary efforts, including creation of a proper legal and normative environment and appropriate changes in budget classification, in order to make a transition towards program budgeting at the federal level from the year 2012. During recent years Russia also became an important member in G8 and G20 forums, thus it started to actively participate in Russia as a donor programs and it is trying to develop its role as a key world financial center with the ruble as a strong currency, with the idea to make it in the future as a fully convertible, widely used in international transactions, and a reserve currency. The Country Partnership Strategy focuses on assistance to implementation of the Government’s four main goals: diversify the economy for sustainable development and growth, improve public sector management and performance, improve delivery of communal and social services, and enhance Russia’s global role. The focus of this operation, supporting improvements in public financial management and advancing the role of Russia as a donor- is to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public sector performance and enhance Russia’s global role, are fully in line with the second and fourth goals. Experience in carrying out public finance reforms in the Russian Federation, namely tax modernization, an intergovernmental fiscal reform, a single treasury account for budget execution and moving to three-year budget planning, suggest that to achieve a durable change for the better public finance and financial sector reforms should be designed and implemented following a coordinated and programmatic approach. The Government has already laid out the strategic directions for change in policy documents on tax policy, budget effectiveness, inter-budgetary relations, development co-operation and the financial sector. Access to international experience combined with investment in modern business processes and upgraded skills will play a key role in ensuring the successful implementation of these policies. 2. Proposed objective(s) The project development objective is to strengthen economic management and oversight of financial risks through policy advice and capacity building in the Ministry of Finance, the Federal Tax Service and sub-national governments. Within this broader overall objective the strategic objectives of the project are to: Enhance the economic efficiency of the tax system reduce the costs of compliance for tax payers; Improve the effectiveness of public spending at regional and local levels; Strengthen Russia’s role as a provider of official development assistance; Improve the effectiveness of Russian cooperation with international financial institutions and economic organizations; Develop the role of the ruble as an international currency; and Improve management of fiscal risks within the financial system. 3. Preliminary description It is envisaged that the project would consist of four components, the implementation of which would be managed by the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Tax Service. Component 1: Inter-government fiscal relations The level of economic and social development of the regions varies widely, and the revenue base of sub-national governments is similarly diverse. A small number of regions have strong revenues from natural resources but, for the most part, sub-national governments remain highly dependent on federal transfers to fund public services and investment. Efforts by central government to improve the performance of lagging regions through central support have achieved mixed results, reflecting in part the diversity of challenges facing different regions. Government is committed to Improve the quality of budget management at regional and municipal level, Improve the efficiency and effectiveness of budget transfer mechanisms, Clarify expenditure obligations of state bodies and local self-governments and strengthen the internal revenue base of sub-national governments. In parallel the government’s budget efficiency program (The Program of Enhancing the Effectiveness of Budget Spending in the Period until 2012) requires significant reforms at subnational level; including the introduction of program budgeting and the establishment of semiautonomous agencies responsible for service delivery. The Ministry has also taken on a new commitment to improve the quality of regional development programs and of federally funded investment projects at sub-national level. The project will support the delivery of these policy objectives and programs with a package of technical assistance including analytical and advisory work, drafting necessary legal and normative acts, and investments in capacity building and training for both Ministry staff and staff in regional and municipal governments. Special attention will be given to the needs of lagging regions. Component 2: Tax policy and administration The Government has already carried out a broad range of tax reforms and modernization of tax administration which have transformed the tax system. Having carried out the obvious major tasks, the Government is now left with a range of more complex tax issues, where they would like to benefit from international best practice, covering both policy and related administration aspects. The objectives are to improve the fiscal balance over the medium term, create incentives for restructuring of the economy, increase fairness and improve the efficiency, effectiveness and user friendliness of tax administration. The strategic directions for change have set out in the “Main Directions of Tax Policy of the Russian Federation for 2011 and the Planning period of 2012 and 2013”. The project will help to implement the changes envisaged as well as making provision for support to other likely tax policy reforms. The project will provide advice and capacity building support both to the Ministry of Finance on the development of tax policy and to the Federal Tax Service for implementation of tax changes in the following areas: Taxation of Hydrocarbons: Provide access to international experience and good practices in the design of tax systems for hydrocarbons, help to model and evaluate proposed tax changes, provide advice on the transition process to test and then roll out changes and help the FTS to develop the regulations, business processes, organization, information management and skills required to administer the new tax regime. Property tax modernization: Support impact assessment of the new property tax, including impact on vulnerable social groups, businesses and across regions, development of methodology and software to undertake mass appraisal of property values and public relations and communications support for the introduction of the new tax. Taxation of not for profit entities: Provide advice and support for the implementation of the new tax regime including review of international experience in taxation of non-profit organization, and the development of regulatory and administrative procedures, systems and training for implementation a new tax regime. Transfer Pricing: Provide access to international experience in transfer pricing; support the development of new legislation and regulations; develop methods and systems for establishing market prices and train Federal Tax Service employees to carry out more effective tax audit of transfer prices. Other tax and revenue policy issues: During the course of the project it is likely that other tax policy and administration issues will arise. The project will include provision for flexible advice in other areas of tax and revenue. Areas that have already been identified include tax expenditures, excise on tobacco and alcohol products, contributions to social extra-budgetary funds, primarily to the Pension Fund, and tariff issues related to the customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. Tax administration: Support modernization of business processes, introduction of call centers and more electronic filing of tax returns, upgrading of data processing and electronic archiving of records, as well as better performance measurement and monitoring. Component 3: Strengthening Russia’s effectiveness as a provider of official development assistance The Russian government has set a policy goal to increase Russia’s financial contributions to development assistance and to ensure their effectiveness (Russia’s Participation in International Development Assistance, 2007). Russia has become an increasingly significant contributor to international development institutions and provider of direct aid to neighboring countries and seeks to fulfill international obligations under G8 and G20 agreements. At the same time the Russian government is looking to broaden its participation in IFIs and its contribution to international economic institutions including UN organizations, OECD etc. The project would support the following: o Developing performance appraisal approaches to evaluate Russia’s contributions to IFIs and inform policy making o Developing a national system to collect and analyze data to meet OECD DAC reporting requirements o Developing new instruments including bilateral development banks that could develop into new IFIs. o Developing the policy, legal and institutional bases for management, monitoring and evaluation of ODA programs, currently delivered by various ministries and agencies o Policy development in relation to G8, G20 and APEC agendas focusing on some concrete areas of development such as financial sector, health and energy. Component 4: Developing the ruble as an international currency and strengthening financial oversight. A group of activities under the project are focused on the Ministry of Finance’s role and responsibility for monitoring systemic financial risks, while at the same time strengthening the financial sector through policies to expand electronic payments and encouraging greater participation in international financial markets, including through promotion of the ruble as an international currency. The main components that will be supported by the projects are: o Development of a system for monitoring the status of systemically important financial institutes in the banking and insurance markets of the Russian Federation in order to create a crisis early warning system and prevent cross-sectoral contagion of systemic risks; o Advice on accreditation and regulation of national credit ratings agencies. o Creation of an automated system for monitoring and management of federal debt and financial assets including contingent liabilities. o Advice on the development and regulation of the proposed new national electronic payment/settlement system. o Advice on expanding the use of the ruble as an international means of payment and the creation of a market in ruble dominated financial instruments, including legislation for clearing and settlement of ruble transactions and development of an advisory body on the development of the international role of the ruble. 4. Safeguard policies that might apply Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01) Natural habitats (OP/BP 4.04) Pest Management (OP 4.09) Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11) Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) Forests (OP/BP 4.36) Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60) Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50) Yes No X X X X X X X X X X X 5. Tentative financing Source: Borrower International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Total 6. Contact point Contact: John Ivor Beazley Title: Lead Public Sector Specialist Tel: (202) 458-7947 Fax: Email: [email protected] TBD ($m.) 71 25 96