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BAROMETER OF THE CLUB OF MAIN EUROPEAN CCIs JUNE 2013 Q1) During the last six months, economic activity in your metropole has: Strong deterioration of economic activity everywhere Q2) During the next six months, economic activity in your metropole would: For the first time for two years, our panel expects an improvement of the economic situation in the near future Q3) During the last six months, the main engine of economic activity in your metropole has been: External demand (exports) remains the main engine of activity in a continent where internal demand is depressed by fiscal consolidation Q4) During the next six months, the main economic activity in your metropole would be supported by: Like previously, exports would be the main engine of recovery. External growth and competitiveness will be the key of our economic future. Q5) During the last six months, the relations between banks and firms has: No change (no improvement) in the relations between firms and banks in a context of credit crunch in south of Europe Q6) Fiscal policy stance in 2011 in your country are: Lack of consensus on fiscal policy. Too quick, too slow ? What is the good timing or the best choice (reduce spending, increase taxes etc.) for the next months years)? Q7) The recent evolution of the euro has: Under 1,30$, the level of euro seems a good news for our panel. Q8) What would make you optimistic for 2013? Name of the Chamber: What would make you optimistic for 2013? Luxembourg Sound macroeconomic fundamentals Barcelona Official Chamber Economic momentum of emergent economies of Commerce Chambre de commerce et d'industrie de Lyon Global growth + European growth Cuts in public spending and reduction of taxes IHK Berlin - Berlins internal demand - the start-up dynamics in Berlin - purchasing power carried by tourism Istanbul Chamber of Commerce Decreasing risks in Euro Area; increasing risk appetite in global markets; strong macroeconomic fundamentals in Turkey; better economic performance of developing economies, particularly in EMEA Region. Madrid Chamber of Commerce and Industry - The fiscal consolidation - The predictable practical effects of the structural reforms taken or scheduled by the Spanish Government - The evolution of the foreign trade PARIS ? Milan Establishment of a new government; partial improvement of public accounts; entrepreneurial vitality Athens Chamber of Commerce & Industry The restoration of liquidity, the initiation of privatizations, the increase of exports, the reduction of taxation and the recovery of investment. At the same time, the country needs to escape potential threats like a derailment of the adjustment programme, the disruption of social cohesion and the structural problems of the Eurozone. Beci - Brussels CCI Internal stabilizers of the economy are still doing 'their job" (international function, local commerce etc) IHK für München und Oberbayern More structural reforms in the euro zone Amsterdam Chamber of Commerce National agreement between employers, labiur unions and the national government Global Growth Growth of the German Economy wit positive impact on the Dutch export Frankfurt am Main Chamber of Commerce and The expectations for the economic activity during the next months. Industry Q9) What would make you pessimistic for 2013? Name of the Chamber Luxembourg What would make you pessimistic for 2013? Pessimistic outlook in the EU, increasing unemployment. Barcelona Official Chamber of Commerce difficulties to reduce unemployment restrictive public policies Chambre de commerce et d'industrie de Lyon Continuing crisis in euro area Continuing pessimism in french public opinion IHK Berlin - the continuing economic instability/ insecurity in the Euro area Istanbul Chamber of Commerce Europe General Slowdown Madrid Chamber of Commerce and Industry - The high rate of unemployment (27,16% at national level; 20,13% in Madrid) - The weakness of the domestic demand PARIS Lack of appropriate measures taken by our government. Europe's slowdown. Milan Stagnation of internal demand; high rates of unemployment (especially, youth unemployment); risks for the safeguarding of social cohesion Athens Chamber of Commerce & Industry If the country continues with measures of harsh austerity which lead to deeper recession and if it continues to give too much weight to horizontal cuts and over-taxation instead of the implementation of the structural reforms that the economy needs. Beci - Brussels CCI - Complexity of the institutional reform (greater regional autonomy) can harm the functionning of the Brussels Metropolitan area. - Tensions within the Eurepean and Euro zone, and the danger of a long recession in Europe - Employment problem in the Brussels area IHK für München und Oberbayern Escalation of the crisis in the euro zone Amsterdam Chamber of Commerce Current state of the housing market in the Netherlands and the private debts Frankfurt am Main Chamber of Commerce and Industry The ongoing economic crisis in the euro area. Q10) Do you have any other comments to make? Name of the Chamber: Do you have any other comments to make ? Luxembourg Barcelona Official Chamber of Commerce Chambre de commerce et d'industrie de Lyon IHK Berlin The recent evolution of the euro offers positive and negative effects on the Berlin economy. On the one hand, financial insecurity has not decreased in the euro area. On the other hand, financial instability in many European contries drives capital into the city. Furthermore, the euro is weaker than a national German currency would be right now, which enhances exports from Berlin. Istanbul Chamber of Commerce No, thank you. Madrid Chamber of Commerce and Industry PARIS Fiscal policy is : - too laxist in terms of public spendings ; - too restrictive vis-à-vis entrepreneurship. Milan Athens Chamber of Commerce & Industry Beci - Brussels CCI IHK für München und Oberbayern Amsterdam Chamber of Commerce Frankfurt am Main Chamber of Commerce and Industry No