Download Presentation and discussion of the Barometer by

BAROMETER OF THE CLUB
OF MAIN EUROPEAN CCIs
JUNE 2013
Q1) During the last six months, economic activity in your metropole has:
Strong deterioration of economic activity everywhere
Q2) During the next six months, economic activity in your metropole would:
For the first time for two years, our panel expects an improvement of the economic
situation in the near future
Q3) During the last six months, the main engine of economic activity in your metropole has been:
External demand (exports) remains the main engine of activity in a continent where
internal demand is depressed by fiscal consolidation
Q4) During the next six months, the main economic activity in your metropole would be supported by:
Like previously, exports would be the main engine of recovery. External growth and
competitiveness will be the key of our economic future.
Q5) During the last six months, the relations between banks and firms has:
No change (no improvement) in the relations between firms and banks in a context of credit
crunch in south of Europe
Q6) Fiscal policy stance in 2011 in your country are:
Lack of consensus on fiscal policy. Too quick, too slow ? What is the good timing or the best
choice (reduce spending, increase taxes etc.) for the next months years)?
Q7) The recent evolution of the euro has:
Under 1,30$, the level of euro seems a good news for our panel.
Q8) What would make you optimistic for 2013?
Name of the Chamber:
What would make you optimistic for 2013?
Luxembourg
Sound macroeconomic fundamentals
Barcelona Official Chamber
Economic momentum of emergent economies
of Commerce
Chambre de commerce et
d'industrie de Lyon
Global growth + European growth Cuts in public spending and reduction of taxes
IHK Berlin
- Berlins internal demand - the start-up dynamics in Berlin - purchasing power carried by
tourism
Istanbul Chamber of
Commerce
Decreasing risks in Euro Area; increasing risk appetite in global markets; strong
macroeconomic fundamentals in Turkey; better economic performance of developing
economies, particularly in EMEA Region.
Madrid Chamber of
Commerce and Industry
- The fiscal consolidation - The predictable practical effects of the structural reforms taken or
scheduled by the Spanish Government - The evolution of the foreign trade
PARIS
?
Milan
Establishment of a new government; partial improvement of public accounts; entrepreneurial
vitality
Athens Chamber of
Commerce & Industry
The restoration of liquidity, the initiation of privatizations, the increase of exports, the reduction
of taxation and the recovery of investment. At the same time, the country needs to escape
potential threats like a derailment of the adjustment programme, the disruption of social
cohesion and the structural problems of the Eurozone.
Beci - Brussels CCI
Internal stabilizers of the economy are still doing 'their job" (international function, local
commerce etc)
IHK für München und
Oberbayern
More structural reforms in the euro zone
Amsterdam Chamber of
Commerce
National agreement between employers, labiur unions and the national government Global
Growth Growth of the German Economy wit positive impact on the Dutch export
Frankfurt am Main
Chamber of Commerce and The expectations for the economic activity during the next months.
Industry
Q9) What would make you pessimistic for 2013?
Name of the Chamber
Luxembourg
What would make you pessimistic for 2013?
Pessimistic outlook in the EU, increasing unemployment.
Barcelona Official
Chamber of Commerce
difficulties to reduce unemployment restrictive public policies
Chambre de commerce et
d'industrie de Lyon
Continuing crisis in euro area Continuing pessimism in french public opinion
IHK Berlin
- the continuing economic instability/ insecurity in the Euro area
Istanbul Chamber of
Commerce
Europe General Slowdown
Madrid Chamber of
Commerce and Industry
- The high rate of unemployment (27,16% at national level; 20,13% in Madrid) - The weakness of
the domestic demand
PARIS
Lack of appropriate measures taken by our government. Europe's slowdown.
Milan
Stagnation of internal demand; high rates of unemployment (especially, youth unemployment);
risks for the safeguarding of social cohesion
Athens Chamber of
Commerce & Industry
If the country continues with measures of harsh austerity which lead to deeper recession and if it
continues to give too much weight to horizontal cuts and over-taxation instead of the
implementation of the structural reforms that the economy needs.
Beci - Brussels CCI
- Complexity of the institutional reform (greater regional autonomy) can harm the functionning of
the Brussels Metropolitan area. - Tensions within the Eurepean and Euro zone, and the danger
of a long recession in Europe - Employment problem in the Brussels area
IHK für München und
Oberbayern
Escalation of the crisis in the euro zone
Amsterdam Chamber of
Commerce
Current state of the housing market in the Netherlands and the private debts
Frankfurt am Main
Chamber of Commerce
and Industry
The ongoing economic crisis in the euro area.
Q10) Do you have any other comments to make?
Name of the Chamber: Do you have any other comments to make ?
Luxembourg
Barcelona Official
Chamber of
Commerce
Chambre de
commerce et
d'industrie de Lyon
IHK Berlin
The recent evolution of the euro offers positive and negative effects on the Berlin economy. On the
one hand, financial insecurity has not decreased in the euro area. On the other hand, financial
instability in many European contries drives capital into the city. Furthermore, the euro is weaker
than a national German currency would be right now, which enhances exports from Berlin.
Istanbul Chamber of
Commerce
No, thank you.
Madrid Chamber of
Commerce and
Industry
PARIS
Fiscal policy is : - too laxist in terms of public spendings ; - too restrictive vis-à-vis entrepreneurship.
Milan
Athens Chamber of
Commerce & Industry
Beci - Brussels CCI
IHK für München und
Oberbayern
Amsterdam Chamber
of Commerce
Frankfurt am Main
Chamber of
Commerce and
Industry
No