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Storylines for trajectories of change in Kenyan Highlands Planners and policy makers need accurate information on which to base their decisions, including implications of policies on the future evolution of agricultural production systems. But who knows what is likely to occur and where? This project identifies patterns of systems evolution and trajectories of change in crop-livestock systems, explaining the forces driving this change, and identifying the impacts of different policy options. The project also aimed to spatially model the common relationships between driving factors and change in the Kenyan highlands and predict system evolution. In more simple words, we attempt to predict agriculturally what is likely to happen and where under different development scenarios. Kenya’s Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation has laid out the country’s vision of a ‘working nation’ (GoK, 2004a). The focus is on giving economic empowerment and democracy to Kenyans, through the restoration of economic growth, generation of employment, and reduction of poverty levels. In this project, we describe possible development paths for agriculture in the Kenyan Highlands over the next 20 years in so-called storylines. These storylines are based on the implementation of the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation (ERSP) in one case, and on several alternative policy and development scenarios in the other cases, and predicts the implications of these alternative development choices on the agricultural sector. This section is to present these storylines, which were adapted based on the opinions from planners, policy makers, researchers and organizations interested in Kenya’s future agricultural development. Each storyline is an alternative image of how the future might unfold. Scenarios can be viewed as a linking tool that integrates qualitative narratives or stories about the future and quantitative formulations based on formal modelling. As such they enhance our understanding of how systems work, behave and evolve, and so can help in the assessment of future developments under alternative policy directions. In presenting this set of scenarios we would like to stimulate the debate about the direction and location of agricultural development in the next decades, and ways to influence those changes. The focus of the government’s Economic Recovery Strategy is on giving economic empowerment and democracy to Kenyans, through the restoration of economic growth, generation of employment, and reduction of poverty levels. To achieve this, plans include increase of revenue through employment creation, strengthening of institutions, rehabilitation and expansion of physical infrastructure, and investment in the human capital of the poor. The development scenarios modelled in this project include the ERSP scenario, and compares it to two other less optimistic scenarios, and describes their possible outcomes on crop-livestock systems and rural livelihoods in Kenya. Summary of storylines for agricultural development in Kenyan Highlands 1. Pessimistic scenario Key features: - Poorly functioning public institutions for supporting agriculture and market development - Market barriers internally and externally, and poor market infrastructure - Policy environment that stifles innovation in both rural and urban economies - No climate change. The pessimistic scenario describes the future of Kenya with inefficient institutions, and a failure to address slow economic growth, unemployment and poverty. The political dilemma is characterized by poor policy formulation and weakness of oversight institutions, such as parliament, to create a favourable policy environment. During the last two decades, we have seen Kenya slide systematically into ‘the abyss of underdevelopment and hopelessness’ (GoK, 2004a), and under this scenario the situation will not improve as no attempts are undertaken for economic recovery. The market development is poor; international market barriers remain, there is a lack of cooperative development, and market infrastructure is poor. Agriculture technology development is uneven and fragmented. Weak institutions and lack of capacity to participate in international technology transfer hampers access to new technologies. The political dilemma will contribute to the deterioration or at best stagnation of the agricultural sector. Arable land per producer will reduce due to the continuation of land fragmentation, associated with increasing populations in rural areas, and with the lack of livelihood options other than agriculture. The slow economic growth and the declining levels of investment will slow employment creation. Eventually this will lead to a decrease in agricultural productivity and insufficient food supply. The production systems develop only marginally as a result of slow technological development and economic growth, and due to barriers to export products. The production systems will mainly change due to land fragmentation, for the larger part be represented by subsistence farming. Only certain areas will focus on food production for local markets. 2. Equitable growth Key features: - Well functioning public institutions for supporting agriculture and market development - Market barriers reduced, and infrastructure improved, both internally and externally - Policy environment that facilitates innovation in both rural and urban economies - No climate change. The second storyline describes the future of Kenya with both political and economic reform, and represents the outcomes planned under the ERSP. The policy and institutional environment is characterized by functioning institutions and policies and strong capable oversight institutions to address issues to support the economic growth. There is a strong commitment to market-based solutions in order to obtain an optimum balance between demand and supply of goods, services and environmental quality at national and international level. Under this scenario the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation is fully and successfully implemented. Local market development and infrastructure are relatively good, and entrepreneurship and investment in local markets increases. Agriculture technology development is strong, mostly focussed at cost reduction and yield increase. There is a more efficient use of fertilisers and agrochemicals, resulting in higher yields per ha, while requiring less labour input. The efficient policy institutions contribute to the enhancement of the agricultural sector. There is some gradual consolidation of arable land due to out-migration from rural into urban areas to pursue increasing urban employment opportunities. There is an increase in agricultural productivity and a sufficiency in food supply. These are accompanied by environmental benefits due to less pressure on land in rural areas. The production systems develop due to technological development and economic growth, providing the local market (including the demand for the changing consumption habits) as well the international market (horticulture etc). Rural and urban livelihoods improve. 3. In-equitable growth Key features: - Generally poor functioning public institutions for supporting smallholder agriculture, with those that function biased towards larger scale players. - Some market barriers reduced and infrastructure improved locally in areas of highest potential, and for larger players focused on exports, but barriers remain elsewhere. - Policy environment that facilitates innovation particularly in urban economies and large scale rural production, but not for all market actors. - No climate change. The third storyline describes the future of Kenya with inefficient institutions and in-equitable economic growth. The economic growth is localized, brought about by initiatives of individuals and the private sector, with limited facilitation by the government. Market development and infrastructure are relatively good only in areas with export-led agriculture. In these areas the agriculture technology development is also strong; mostly focussed at cost reduction and yield increase. There is an increase in agricultural productivity in the largescale production of cash crops for the international market. In these areas there are local offfarm income opportunities available for rural people in wage labour in commercial farming, with some rural development and income multiplier effects. Under this scenario the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation is only partly implemented and not all Kenyans benefit, particularly not smallholders. In the major of smallholder areas agricultural productivity will remain stagnant or decrease due to land fragmentation, lack of market infrastructure and services. There will be insufficient food and continued migration to urban areas, contributing to uncontrolled expansion of urban areas; the rate of economic growth is low. 4. Equitable growth with climate change Key features: - Same features of positive policy environment and growth as equitable growth scenario above. - Global warming causes climatic change. The fourth storyline describes the future of Kenya with both political and economic reform, but influenced by climate change. There will be an increase in agricultural productivity, consolidation of arable land, efficient market infrastructure and services, and sufficiency in food. Under this scenario the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation is fully and successfully implemented. However, due to greenhouse gas emissions globally, the areas suitable for agricultural production will change due to global warming and locally changing rainfall and temperature patterns. This will alter the local outcomes of positive policy and market development. Drivers Human population density Education Main forcing drivers of change under different scenarios. Baseline scenario Equitable scenario Inequitable scenario Rural growth rates differ across scenario with a negative growth rate in the equitable scenario in the assumption of out-migration (from rural to urban areas). Rural growth rate in the baseline scenario is calculated as the observed average rural growth rates while for the rural growth rate for the inequitable scenario is the average of the rates in the two other scenarios. Rural growth rate=0.7 Rural growth rate=-0.6 Rural growth rate=0.1 The education growth rate for the baseline scenario is the average of past rates while for the equitable scenario; it is the rate to achieve universal primary education by 2015. The education growth rate in the in-equitable scenario assumes two rates: a higher rate in areas near large scale farming compared to the other areas. Growth rate=1% Growth rate=4.5% Growth rate=2.25% Extension services The baseline scenario assumes a status quo while the equitable scenario assumes a positive growth rate. In the inequitable scenario, two rates are used: 2% in areas near large scale farming and 1% in the other areas. Growth rate=0% Growth rate=2% Growth rate=1% Off-farm employment The baseline scenario assumes a growth rate based on past trends while the equitable scenario assumes a higher growth rate. In the inequitable scenario, two rates are used: 4.5% in areas near large scale farming and 3.38% in the other areas. Market access Growth rate=2.25% Growth rate=4.5% Growth rate= 3.38% Dual highway Mombasa- Busia only Dual highway Mombasa- Busia and all other roads gradually improved Dual highway Mombasa- Busia. All other roads gradually improved but only in areas with large scale farming References Arjun, S., Bedi, A.S., Kimalu, P.K., Manda D.K., and Nafula N.N. (2002). The Decline of primary school enrolment in Kenya. The Kenya Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA). Discussion paper No.14. Delgado C., Rosegrant M., Steinfeld H., Ehui S. and Courbois C. 1999. Livestock to 2020. The Next Food Revolution. IFPRI/FAO/ILRI. Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 28. EAMAT. (1999). East African Multidisciplinary advisory team (EAMAT). Meeting the Employment challenges of the 21st century. Addis Ababa. Publication of the International Labour Organization (ILO) GoK (2004a) Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation GoK. (2004b). Economic Survey 2004 GoK. (2002). National Development Plan 2002-2008 GoK. (1999). National Poverty Eradication Plan 1999-2015 IEA, 2000. Kenya at the crossroads. Institute of Economic Affairs and Society for International Development. Madhur G. (1999). World bank Agricultural Extension Projects in Kenya. Report No. 19523. http://www.worldbank.org/html/oed