Download Storylines for trajectories of change in Kenyan Highlands

Storylines for trajectories of change in Kenyan Highlands
Planners and policy makers need accurate information on which to base their decisions,
including implications of policies on the future evolution of agricultural production systems.
But who knows what is likely to occur and where? This project identifies patterns of systems
evolution and trajectories of change in crop-livestock systems, explaining the forces driving
this change, and identifying the impacts of different policy options. The project also aimed to
spatially model the common relationships between driving factors and change in the Kenyan
highlands and predict system evolution. In more simple words, we attempt to predict
agriculturally what is likely to happen and where under different development scenarios.
Kenya’s Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation has laid out the
country’s vision of a ‘working nation’ (GoK, 2004a). The focus is on giving economic
empowerment and democracy to Kenyans, through the restoration of economic growth,
generation of employment, and reduction of poverty levels. In this project, we describe
possible development paths for agriculture in the Kenyan Highlands over the next 20 years in
so-called storylines. These storylines are based on the implementation of the Economic
Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation (ERSP) in one case, and on several
alternative policy and development scenarios in the other cases, and predicts the implications
of these alternative development choices on the agricultural sector. This section is to present
these storylines, which were adapted based on the opinions from planners, policy makers,
researchers and organizations interested in Kenya’s future agricultural development.
Each storyline is an alternative image of how the future might unfold. Scenarios can be
viewed as a linking tool that integrates qualitative narratives or stories about the future and
quantitative formulations based on formal modelling. As such they enhance our
understanding of how systems work, behave and evolve, and so can help in the assessment of
future developments under alternative policy directions. In presenting this set of scenarios we
would like to stimulate the debate about the direction and location of agricultural
development in the next decades, and ways to influence those changes. The focus of the
government’s Economic Recovery Strategy is on giving economic empowerment and
democracy to Kenyans, through the restoration of economic growth, generation of
employment, and reduction of poverty levels. To achieve this, plans include increase of
revenue through employment creation, strengthening of institutions, rehabilitation and
expansion of physical infrastructure, and investment in the human capital of the poor. The
development scenarios modelled in this project include the ERSP scenario, and compares it to
two other less optimistic scenarios, and describes their possible outcomes on crop-livestock
systems and rural livelihoods in Kenya.
Summary of storylines for agricultural development in Kenyan Highlands
1. Pessimistic scenario
Key features:
- Poorly functioning public institutions for supporting agriculture and market development
- Market barriers internally and externally, and poor market infrastructure
- Policy environment that stifles innovation in both rural and urban economies
- No climate change.
The pessimistic scenario describes the future of Kenya with inefficient institutions, and a
failure to address slow economic growth, unemployment and poverty. The political dilemma
is characterized by poor policy formulation and weakness of oversight institutions, such as
parliament, to create a favourable policy environment. During the last two decades, we have
seen Kenya slide systematically into ‘the abyss of underdevelopment and hopelessness’
(GoK, 2004a), and under this scenario the situation will not improve as no attempts are
undertaken for economic recovery.
The market development is poor; international market barriers remain, there is a lack of
cooperative development, and market infrastructure is poor. Agriculture technology
development is uneven and fragmented. Weak institutions and lack of capacity to participate
in international technology transfer hampers access to new technologies.
The political dilemma will contribute to the deterioration or at best stagnation of the
agricultural sector. Arable land per producer will reduce due to the continuation of land
fragmentation, associated with increasing populations in rural areas, and with the lack of
livelihood options other than agriculture. The slow economic growth and the declining levels
of investment will slow employment creation. Eventually this will lead to a decrease in
agricultural productivity and insufficient food supply. The production systems develop only
marginally as a result of slow technological development and economic growth, and due to
barriers to export products. The production systems will mainly change due to land
fragmentation, for the larger part be represented by subsistence farming. Only certain areas
will focus on food production for local markets.
2. Equitable growth
Key features:
- Well functioning public institutions for supporting agriculture and market development
- Market barriers reduced, and infrastructure improved, both internally and externally
- Policy environment that facilitates innovation in both rural and urban economies
- No climate change.
The second storyline describes the future of Kenya with both political and economic reform,
and represents the outcomes planned under the ERSP. The policy and institutional
environment is characterized by functioning institutions and policies and strong capable
oversight institutions to address issues to support the economic growth. There is a strong
commitment to market-based solutions in order to obtain an optimum balance between
demand and supply of goods, services and environmental quality at national and international
level. Under this scenario the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment
Creation is fully and successfully implemented.
Local market development and infrastructure are relatively good, and entrepreneurship and
investment in local markets increases. Agriculture technology development is strong, mostly
focussed at cost reduction and yield increase. There is a more efficient use of fertilisers and
agrochemicals, resulting in higher yields per ha, while requiring less labour input.
The efficient policy institutions contribute to the enhancement of the agricultural sector.
There is some gradual consolidation of arable land due to out-migration from rural into urban
areas to pursue increasing urban employment opportunities. There is an increase in
agricultural productivity and a sufficiency in food supply. These are accompanied by
environmental benefits due to less pressure on land in rural areas. The production systems
develop due to technological development and economic growth, providing the local market
(including the demand for the changing consumption habits) as well the international market
(horticulture etc). Rural and urban livelihoods improve.
3. In-equitable growth
Key features:
- Generally poor functioning public institutions for supporting smallholder agriculture, with
those that function biased towards larger scale players.
- Some market barriers reduced and infrastructure improved locally in areas of highest
potential, and for larger players focused on exports, but barriers remain elsewhere.
- Policy environment that facilitates innovation particularly in urban economies and large
scale rural production, but not for all market actors.
- No climate change.
The third storyline describes the future of Kenya with inefficient institutions and in-equitable
economic growth. The economic growth is localized, brought about by initiatives of
individuals and the private sector, with limited facilitation by the government. Market
development and infrastructure are relatively good only in areas with export-led agriculture.
In these areas the agriculture technology development is also strong; mostly focussed at cost
reduction and yield increase. There is an increase in agricultural productivity in the largescale production of cash crops for the international market. In these areas there are local offfarm income opportunities available for rural people in wage labour in commercial farming,
with some rural development and income multiplier effects. Under this scenario the Economic
Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation is only partly implemented and not
all Kenyans benefit, particularly not smallholders.
In the major of smallholder areas agricultural productivity will remain stagnant or decrease
due to land fragmentation, lack of market infrastructure and services. There will be
insufficient food and continued migration to urban areas, contributing to uncontrolled
expansion of urban areas; the rate of economic growth is low.
4. Equitable growth with climate change
Key features:
- Same features of positive policy environment and growth as equitable growth scenario
above.
- Global warming causes climatic change.
The fourth storyline describes the future of Kenya with both political and economic reform,
but influenced by climate change. There will be an increase in agricultural productivity,
consolidation of arable land, efficient market infrastructure and services, and sufficiency in
food. Under this scenario the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment
Creation is fully and successfully implemented. However, due to greenhouse gas emissions
globally, the areas suitable for agricultural production will change due to global warming and
locally changing rainfall and temperature patterns. This will alter the local outcomes of
positive policy and market development.
Drivers
Human
population
density
Education
Main forcing drivers of change under different scenarios.
Baseline scenario
Equitable scenario
Inequitable scenario
Rural growth rates differ across scenario with a negative growth rate in the
equitable scenario in the assumption of out-migration (from rural to urban
areas). Rural growth rate in the baseline scenario is calculated as the
observed average rural growth rates while for the rural growth rate for the
inequitable scenario is the average of the rates in the two other scenarios.
Rural growth rate=0.7 Rural growth rate=-0.6 Rural growth rate=0.1
The education growth rate for the baseline scenario is the average of past
rates while for the equitable scenario; it is the rate to achieve universal
primary education by 2015.
The education growth rate in the in-equitable scenario assumes two rates: a
higher rate in areas near large scale farming compared to the other areas.
Growth rate=1%
Growth rate=4.5%
Growth rate=2.25%
Extension
services
The baseline scenario assumes a status quo while the equitable scenario
assumes a positive growth rate. In the inequitable scenario, two rates are
used: 2% in areas near large scale farming and 1% in the other areas.
Growth rate=0%
Growth rate=2%
Growth rate=1%
Off-farm
employment
The baseline scenario assumes a growth rate based on past trends while the
equitable scenario assumes a higher growth rate. In the inequitable
scenario, two rates are used: 4.5% in areas near large scale farming and
3.38% in the other areas.
Market access
Growth rate=2.25%
Growth rate=4.5%
Growth rate= 3.38%
Dual highway
Mombasa- Busia only
Dual highway
Mombasa- Busia and
all other roads
gradually improved
Dual highway
Mombasa- Busia. All
other roads gradually
improved but only in
areas with large scale
farming
References
 Arjun, S., Bedi, A.S., Kimalu, P.K., Manda D.K., and Nafula N.N. (2002). The Decline of
primary school enrolment in Kenya. The Kenya Institute of Public Policy Research and
Analysis (KIPPRA). Discussion paper No.14.
 Delgado C., Rosegrant M., Steinfeld H., Ehui S. and Courbois C. 1999. Livestock to 2020.
The Next Food Revolution. IFPRI/FAO/ILRI. Food, Agriculture, and the Environment
Discussion Paper 28.
 EAMAT. (1999). East African Multidisciplinary advisory team (EAMAT). Meeting the
Employment challenges of the 21st century. Addis Ababa. Publication of the International
Labour Organization (ILO)
 GoK (2004a) Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation
 GoK. (2004b). Economic Survey 2004
 GoK. (2002). National Development Plan 2002-2008
 GoK. (1999). National Poverty Eradication Plan 1999-2015
 IEA, 2000. Kenya at the crossroads. Institute of Economic Affairs and Society for
International Development.
 Madhur G. (1999). World bank Agricultural Extension Projects in Kenya. Report No.
19523. http://www.worldbank.org/html/oed