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INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY RELATED SO2 EMISSIONS CONTROL IN
CHINA’S 12TH FIVE-YEAR PLAN
Xuanming Su, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Phone +81-29-850-2088, E-mail: [email protected]
Kiyoshi Takahashi, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Phone +81-29-850-2543, E-mail: [email protected]
Weisheng Zhou, College of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University, Phone +81-75-466-3418, E-mail: [email protected]
Overview
China has reduced the SO2 emissions by 14.29% in the 11th five-year plan (2006 - 2010). However, air pollution is
still a severe problem in some industrial cities in China, due to excessive use of fossil fuels. China plans to reduce
SO2 emissions by 8% in the new 12th five-year plan (2011 - 2015), going with other CO2 reduction targets and
pollutants reduction targets. This study makes an integrated assessment of energy related SO2 emissions control in
China’s 12th five-year plan, in terms of economic cost, energy consumption structure and environmental impact by a
large scale non-linear integrated planning model. It not only figures out the significance of desulfurization
technologies, but also illuminates the impact on GDP and determines the effects of the introduction of different nonfossil fuels such as nuclear, hydro power, wind, solar PV and other renewable energy. It points out that (a) it is
necessary to promote the popularization and improve the efficiency of desulfurization technologies in China to
further reduce SO2 emissions; (b) energy saving is an important measure for SO2 emission reduction; (c) switching
from coal to natural gas or non-fossil fuels helps China to achieve the SO2 emission reduction target; (d) prudent use
of nuclear power is necessary to change China’s energy consumption structure which now relies on fossil fuels
heavily. This study finally concludes with energy policy implications for China’s government.
Methodology
Large scale non-linear integrated programing.
Results
First, a reference scenario and an emission reduction target scenario are simulated respectively, to evaluate the
significance of the desulfurization technologies and the diffusion of renewables.
Second, possible SO2 emission reduction options and related impacts on GDP are assessed for China’s 12th five-year
plan.
Conclusions
SO2 emissions control still needs to be treated with caution in the 12th five-year plan for China. According to the
simulation results from a large scale non-linear integrated planning model, there are the following measures to
achieve the SO2 reduction targets for China: firstly, it is necessary to promote the popularization and improve the
efficiency of desulfurization technologies in China to further reduce SO2 emissions; secondly, energy saving is an
important measure for SO2 emission reduction; thirdly, switching from coal to natural gas or non-fossil fuels helps
China to achieve the SO2 emission reduction target; finally, prudent use of nuclear power is necessary to change
China’s energy consumption structure which now relies on fossil fuels heavily.
References
Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People’s Republic of China, National 12th Five-Year Plan for
Environmental Protection, Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People’s Republic of China, Sep. 21 2011.
Jeremy J. Schreifels, Yale Fu, Elizabeth J. Wilson, Sulfur dioxide control in China: policy evolution during the 10 th
and 11th Five-year Plans and lessons for the future, Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 779-789,
ISSN 0301-4215, 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.015.
Jianhua Xu, Xuesong Wang, Shiqiu Zhang, Risk-based air pollutants management at regional levels, Environmental
Science & Policy, Volume 25, January 2013, Pages 167-175, ISSN 1462-9011, 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.09.014.