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Jfq/28/06/17/outline Outline of the course GRA 1330/GRA 6604 Applied macroeconomics – monetary policy Autumn 2001 Thursday 1300-1545 BI Sandvika Auditorium 2 Practical information Jan F. Qvigstad will normally be at Handelshøyskolen BI on Thursdays. The rest of the week he will be in Norges Bank and can be contacted at mailto:[email protected]. Jan F. Qvigstad’s home page is http://finance.bi.no/~qvigstad/. Jan F. Qvigstad is responsible for the course. Guest lecturers are invited. Jan F. Qvigstad will be present at all lectures except 4 October and 15 November. In order to register as a course participant and to receive course material, the students should e-mail mailto:[email protected]. After each lecture I shall e-mail you the course material. Each lecture consists of three parts: Lecture based on the compulsory syllabus and on the advised reading. Case studies (see hand out) Market analysis. (see hand out) Active participation in the course is a prerequisite. It is compulsory to take part in the group presentations of the case studies or the market analysis. Syllabus Compulsory: Burda & Wyplosz. Macroeconomics. Second Edition. Oxford University Press. 1997. [B&W]. Part of this book (chapters 1-13, except 5 and 7) has already been the syllabus for SIV 3201. It is advised to reread these chapters. For this course in Applied Macroeconomics chapters 18-19 are added. The lectures. Advised reading: Papers on Applied Macroeconomics. Jan Fredrik Qvigstad. September 2001. [PAM] Lecture 1. Introduction. 20 September 1 Jan Fredrik Qvigstad Practical information Motivation for the course Example of a case study: What will happen if we increase the spending of the oil money Example of market analysis (what happened last week; what is like to happen next week; examples from First, DnB, Gjensidig Nor etc.) Lecture 2. Inflation targeting. Theory 27 September Guest lecturer Øistein Røisland Lecture on Inflation targeting. Advised reading: 1. Apel, M., M. Nessén, U. Söderström and A. Vredin, ”Different ways of conducting inflation targeting - theory and practice”, Quarterly Review 1999:4, Riksbanken (PAM) 2. Mishkin, F. “International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes”. WP 6965, NBER Working Paper Series (PAM) Group presentation: Market analysis Group presentation: Case study Lecture 3. Inflation targeting in Norway 4 October Guest lecturer Jon Nicolaisen Lecture on inflation targeting in Norway Advised reading: 1. Gjedrem, S. “Inflation target - how interest rates are set”, Aftenposten, 29 May 2001. (PAM) 2. Gjedrem, S. ”The krone and the interest rate”, Dagens Næringsliv, 6 July 2001. (PAM) 3. Gjedrem, S. ”Monetary policy, forecasts and market communication”, 07 June 2001, The Norwegian School of Management’s Centre for Monetary Economics (PAM) Group presentation: Market analysis Group presentation: Case study Lecture 4. Monetary Policy in Euroland 11 October Guest lecturer Anne Berit Christiansen Lecture on monetary policy in Euroland Advised reading: 1. “The stability-oriented monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem”. ECB Monthly Bulletin. January 1999. Pp39-50. (PAM) 2. Alesina, Blanchard, Gali, Giavazzi and Uhlig: “Defining a macroeconomic framework for the Euro area”, monitoring the European Central Bank, CEPR , executive summary, chapter 3, 4 and 5. (PAM) 3. Duisenberg: “What exactly is the responsibility of central banks of large economic areas in the current slowdown of the world economy?”, http://www.ecb.int (PAM) Group presentation: Market analysis Group presentation: Case study 2 Lecture 5. Monetary policy in USA 18 October Guest lecturer Kåre Haglund Lecture on monetary policy in USA Advised reading: 1. The Federal Reserve System – Purposes and Functions. Chapter 1: Overview of the Federal Reserve System, page 1-3 (to Structure of the System), chapter 2: Monetary Policy and the Economy. See: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pf/pdf/frspurp.pdf (PAM) 2. Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan. Federal Reserve Board’s semiannual monetary policy report to the Congress. July 18, 2000. See: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2001/july/testimony.htm (PAM) Group presentation: Market analysis Group presentation: Case study Lecture 6. Macroeconomics 25 October Jan Fredrik Qvigstad Lecture on the IS-LM model and uncovered and covered interest parity Compulsory syllabus: 1. B&W Chapters 10 and 11 2. B&W Chapter 19.2 Group presentation: Market analysis Group presentation: Case study Lecture 7. The Data 1 November Guest lecturer Kjetil Olsen Lecture on National Accounts, short term indicators, core inflation Compulsory syllabus: 1. B&W: Chapters 1 and 2 Advised reading: 2. Familiarise yourself with the following homepages: www.finans.dep.no, www.norges-bank.no, www.ssb.no Group presentation: Market analysis Group presentation: Case study Lecture 8. Inflation forecasts 8 November Guest lecturer Amund Holmsen Lecture on inflation forecasting in Norway Advised reading: 1. Norges Bank Inflation report, see www.norges-bank.no 2. Qvigstad, J. “Monetary Policy in Real Time”, Working paper ANO 2001/1, Norges Bank (PAM) 3. Olsen, K. and F. Wulfsberg, “The role of assessments and judgement in the macroeconomic model RIMINI", Economic Bulletin 2/2001, Norges Bank (PAM) 4. Jore, A. S., “Evaluation of Norges Bank’s projections for 1999”, Economic Bulletin 1/2001, Norges Bank (PAM) Group presentation: Market analysis 3 Group presentation: Case study Lecture 9. Price stability and financial stability 15 November. The lecture will be given in Norges Bank (The Press Centre) and not in auditorium 2 at BI/Sandvika1 Guest lecturer Arild Lund Lecture on the interaction between price stability and financial stability Advised reading: 1. Schwartz, A. J. “Why financial stability depends on price stability” (PAM) 2. Crockett, A. “Why is financial stability a goal of public policy”, Federal reserve Bank of Kansas City (PAM) 3. Norges Bank Report on Financial Stability, see www.norges-bank.no Group presentation: Market analysis Group presentation: Case study 1415-1445 hrs. Director Knut Kjær: Presentation of the investment strategy of the Government’s Petroleum Fund Lecture 10 Preparation for exam 22 November Jan Fredrik Qvigstad Lecture on Highlights of the previous lectures Exam 1999 and exam 2000 (See PAM) Some good advice Group presentation: Market analysis Group presentation: Case study Main entrance 1 Students should enter Norges Bank via the main entrance from Bankplassen (see map at the end of this note). Meet in the main reception hall at 1245 hrs. Security requires a name list. I shall use the list of registered students for the course (the ”e-mail list”). The students that cannot meet should e-mail me a note two days in advance (Tuesday 13 November). 4