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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION EXECUTIVE COUNCIL PANEL OF EXPERTS ON POLAR OBSERVATIONS, RESEARCH AND SERVICES Fifth session EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30 Date: 13 January 2014 AGENDA ITEM: 4 Wellington, New Zealand, 25 – 28 February 2014 SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON ANTARCTIC RESEARCH (SCAR) SUMMARY ISSUES TO BE DISCUSSED: This document provides a yearly update on SCAR activities, including its programmes, databases and scientific projects and plans, particularly in the context of WMO activities. DECISIONS/ACTIONS REQUIRED: The Panel is invited to consider new and ongoing SCAR activities and to discuss the best means of ensuring co-operation between WMO/PORS and SCAR on activities, such as: Implementation of the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) The relationship between Ice Sheet Mass Balance and Sea Level (ISMASS and other activities) The next generation of SCAR Research Programmes such as ‘Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century’ (AntClim21), Solid Earth Response and Cryosphere Evolution (SERCE), and Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics. (PAIS) The Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment Expert Group The SCAR Horizon Scan Activity REFERENCES: 1. SCAR website: http://www.scar.org/ 2. Key SCAR databases: Met. READER: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/READER/ Ice-READER: http://icereader.org/icereader/ Ocean Reader: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/SCAR_ssg_ps/OceanREADER/. 3. Antarctic Master Directory: http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/KeywordSearch/Home.do?Portal=amd&MetadataType=0). 4. SCAR's Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) report and associated updates, see: http://www.scar.org/publications/occasionals/acce.html 5. The Southern Ocean Observing System website: http://www.soos.aq 6. The SCAR/IASC/CliC Ice Sheet Mass Balance and Sea Level (ISMASS) group: http://www.scar.org/researchgroups/physicalscience/ismass.html 7. SCAR’s next generation of research programmes: http://www.scar.org/researchgroups/progplanning/ 8. Antarctic Permafrost and Soils (http://erth.waikato.ac.nz/antpas/) 9. The SCAR Horizon Scan: http://www.scar.org/horizonscanning/ EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 2/7 SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON ANTARCTIC RESEARCH (SCAR) 1. Background SCAR is an interdisciplinary body of the International Council of Science (ICSU). SCAR currently has 37 national Members and 9 ICSU Union Members. Its mission is to be the leading, independent, non-governmental facilitator, coordinator, and advocate of excellence in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science and research. Secondly, SCAR’s mission is to provide independent, scientifically-based advice to the Antarctic Treaty System and other policy makers such as the IPCC and UNFCCC. The advisory mission includes the use of science to identify emerging issues and bringing these issues to the attention of policy makers. For further information see www.scar.org 2. Scientific Activities of Relevance to WMO: 2.1. SCAR Scientific Research Programmes: Although SCAR has many different groups looking at different aspects of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science (see http://www.scar.org/about/introduction/organization/), SCAR focuses its scientific efforts on several Scientific Research Programmes (SRPs) that address major topical issues of the day. These are currently: Solid Earth Response and Cryosphere Evolution (SERCE) Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS) Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century (AntClim21) Astronomy and Astrophysics from Antarctica State of the Antarctic Ecosystem (AntECO) Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaptation (AnT-ERA) Further information on all these is available from: http://www.scar.org/researchgroups/progplanning/. Individual webpages will be developed as the new SCAR website comes online (planned Feb 2014). Of the new SRPs AntClim21 is most relevant to WMO activities. The goals of AntClim21 are to deliver improved regional predictions of key elements of the Antarctic atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere for the next 20 to 200 years and to understand the responses of the physical and biological systems to natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. A primary form of data that will be used by AntClim21 are the global coupled atmosphere-ocean model runs that form the basis of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Palaeo-reconstructions of selected time periods, recognised as past analogues for future climate predictions, will be used to validate model performances for the Antarctic region. Chief officer of this programme is Nancy Bertler [email protected]. 2.2 SCAR Action and Expert Groups SCAR also supports a variety of other scientific activities through its Standing Scientific Groups on Physical, Geo and Life sciences, in which value is added to national efforts through international cooperation. These activities are coordinated by Action Groups (AG) operating for short periods, and Expert Groups (EG) where more time is needed to achieve success. Current AGs and EGs of most relevance to WMO include: EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 3/7 EG on GNSS Research and Application for Polar Environment (GRAPE); Contact Giorgiana De Franceschi (e-mail: [email protected]) AG on Polar Atmospheric Chemistry at the Tropopause (PACT); Contact: Andrew Klekociuk ([email protected]) or Gennadi Milinevsky ([email protected]); EG on Operational Meteorology in the Antarctic (OpMet); contact Steve Colwell ([email protected]) AG on Action Group on Antarctic Clouds and Aerosols. Contact Tom Lachlan-Cope ([email protected]) Details of all SCAR groups http://www.scar.org/about/introduction/organization/ can be found on: 2.3 The Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment Advisory Group www.scar.org/researchgroups/acce/ The SCAR Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) Advisory Group coordinates research across SCAR on past and potential future climate change over the Antarctic continent and in the Southern Ocean and prepares updates and supplements to the Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (2009) report (http://www.scar.org/publications/occasionals/acce.html) as necessary. The latest update, an update of the key issues from the ACCE report, was published in Polar Record in April 2013 (CJO2013. doi:10.1017/S0032247413000296). Key findings include: Recent research has improved the reconciliation of the various satellite-derived estimates of changes in the mass of the Antarctic ice sheet and also estimated the contribution to sea level rise. Overall this gives a contribution from the whole Antarctic ice sheet of +0.20 ± 0.15 mm per year, which compares to +0.39 ± 0.14 mm per year from the Greenland ice sheet. Ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have changed rapidly in recent decades, with episodes of retreat, breakup and collapse occurring on both sides. The overall reduction in total ice shelf area during the last five decades has recently been estimated to be over 28,000 km2. Since about 1980 the ozone hole has had a major impact on the climate of high southern latitudes, increasing the strength of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean by 1520%, slightly cooling much of the continent and decreasing the growth rate of plants. Ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere are now decreasing by about 1% per year. As a result the size and depth of the ozone hole have stabilised, but are not yet decreasing. It has been forecast that stratospheric ozone loss rates will begin to decline noticeably between 2017 and 2021 and that by the middle of the 21st century springtime concentrations of stratospheric ozone are expected to have significantly recovered and will have almost fully recovered by the end of the 21st century. EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 4/7 The large winter season warming on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula has been traced to a decrease of sea ice just to the west of the Peninsula over the Bellingshausen Sea. It is unclear at present whether this change is a result of anthropogenic activity. Reconstructions of surface temperature for West Antarctica suggest that it has warmed markedly over the last 50 years with the Siple region identified as one of the most rapidly warming areas on Earth. These changes have been linked to sea surface temperature increases across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Over the period 1979–2010 the sea ice over the Southern Ocean as a whole showed a positive trend in the annual mean of 1.3% per decade. The extent of Antarctic sea ice reached a new record maximum for the satellite era in 2012. Ongoing responses of the marine ecosystem to climate change include: a shift in phytoand bacterioplankton from larger to smaller species; a shrinking of Adélie and Gentoo penguin populations; shifts in the range of Southern elephant seal populations to the south, and decreases in the north of their range; low breeding success of Emperor penguins in East Antarctica due to changes in the food-chain and sea-ice extent. Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems have likewise shown a range of rapid and sensitive responses to different aspects of environmental change, including increases in populations, biomass and community complexity involving the native invertebrates and plants. The next annual update will be submitted to the Antarctic Treaty at the end of March. Chief officer of the ACCE group is John Turner [email protected]. 2.4 The Southern Ocean Observing System www.soos.aq The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) is co-sponsored by SCAR and SCOR and endorsed by POGO, CLIVAR and CliC. Its mission is to establish a multidisciplinary observing system to deliver sustained observations of the Southern Ocean. These observations are needed to address key challenges of scientific and societal relevance, including climate change, sea-level rise, and the impacts of global change on marine ecosystems. The SOOS International Project Office (IPO) is hosted by the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania (Australia). The SOOS IPO is also sponsored by the Australian Antarctic Division, Australian Government (AAD), Antarctica New Zealand (ANZ), the New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute (NZARI), the Tasmanian Government Department of Economic Development, Tourism and the Arts, and the Tasmanian Partnership for Advanced Computing, with in-kind support from the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS). The role of the IPO is to act as a central contact point for SOOS, monitor progress towards SOOS goals, facilitate coordination of field work, assist in the organisation of workshops, and synthesis activities, and coordinate a Website/Social Media and other activities to advertise the aims and achievements of the SOOS. SOOS is now moving from its developmental phase (2011-2013) into its implementation phase. EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 5/7 A 20-year vision was recently published (www.soos.aq/index.php/products/soosproducts?view=product&pid=19), and this vision, along with 10-year science theme workplans, are being used to develop a detailed 10-year Implementation Plan, which will outline specific mechanisms and step-wise activities required for achieving the vision. A significant increase in support is required to enable the coordination of the implementation of SOOS. Towards this end, SOOS is developing a Sponsorship Prospectus, to invite institutes, organisations and other interested parties to invest in the SOOS mission. The prospectus will be completed by the end of February 2014. SOOS is also working with NASA to develop a new metadata portal, based on the GCMD. The prototype of which is expected to be online by the end of February. A number of other key activities are planned for 2014 – based on the science theme workplans that were developed. These include a workshop on Southern Ocean Flux observations, publication of the Under Ice strategy, a workshop (funded by ICSU, SCOR, SCAR and CAML) on identifying ecosystem Essential Ocean Variables, and the initiation of a joint effort with CliC towards better validation of satellite products for the Southern Ocean. The next meeting of the SOOS Scientific Steering Committee Meeting will take place in Tromso, Norway, hosted by the Norwegian Polar Institute, 18-20 June 2014. 2.5 The SCAR/IASC/CliC Ice Sheet Mass Balance and Sea Level (ISMASS) http://www.scar.org/researchgroups/physicalscience/ismass.html. (note a new webpage will be developed shortly) The Expert Group on Ice Sheet Mass Balance and Sea Level (ISMASS) is co-sponsored by SCAR, the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) and now by the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project of WCRP. The goals of ISMASS are to promote the research on the estimation of the mass balance of ice sheets and its contribution to sea level, to facilitate the coordination among the different international efforts focused on this field of research, to propose directions for future research in this area, to integrate the observations and modelling efforts, as well as the distribution and archiving of the corresponding data, to attract a new generation of scientists into this field of research, and to contribute to the diffusion, to society and policy makers, of the current scientific knowledge and the main achievements in this field of science. ISMASS contacts are: Frank Pattyn ([email protected]), Francisco ([email protected]) and Edward Hanna ([email protected]). Navarro 2.6 Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Permafrost, Soils and Periglacial Environments Group http://erth.waikato.ac.nz/antpas/ The combined IPA working group on Antarctic Permafrost and SCAR expert group on Antarctic Soils, Permafrost and Periglacial Environments, in close working relationship with the IUSS cryosols group, have launched the ANTPAS (Antarctic Permafrost And Soils) project to address some of the current shortcomings and research needs. The overall aim is to develop an internationally coordinated, web-accessible, database and monitoring system on Antarctic EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 6/7 permafrost and soils. Specific objectives are: • A common, web-accessible repository for permafrost and soils data. • The production of thematic maps on Antarctic permafrost and soils. • A system of boreholes providing data on permafrost and soils properties, records of past environmental change, and recording permafrost responses to climate change. • A well-designed monitoring system recording active layer and periglacial process responses to climate change along selected environmental gradients. 2.7 Data and Information SCAR has developed key databases for meteorological oceanographic and ice data. These can be accessed at: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/READER/ http://icereader.org/icereader/ http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/SCAR_ssg_ps/OceanREADER/. SCAR also encourages the collection and exchange of a wide variety of data through its Antarctic Master Directory see: http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/KeywordSearch/Home.do?Portal=amd&MetadataType=0 2.8 The SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Horizon Scan http://www.scar.org/horizonscanning/ The “SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan” will bring together around 70 of the world’s leading Antarctic scientists, policy makers, leaders, and visionaries to identify the most important scientific questions that will or should be addressed by research in and from the southern Polar Regions over the next two decades. Questions have been submitted, invitations issued, and planning is well advanced for staging the first ever international, community–wide Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan. Community participation has been excellent with nearly 850 questions submitted (http://www.scar.org/horizonscanning/ retreatquestions/) and almost 500 nominations received for the 30 or 40 “At-Large” invitations to the Retreat (http://www.scar.org/horizonscanning/retreatattendees.html). As one final piece of the planning efforts, discussion teams for Retreat sessions have been announced (http://www.scar.org/ horizonscanning/news/27november2013. html) and these teams have agreed to ensure that the voices of all are heard and considered in the deliberations to come. The Science Horizon Scan Retreat is scheduled for 20 to 23 April 2014 in Queenstown, New Zealand. Another measure of community support is that many organizations are financially supporting the Scan effort’s core funding from the Tinker Foundation (http://www.scar.org/horizonscanning/sponsors.html). The Scan organizers especially recognize the offer to host and the financial sup- port of Antarctica New Zealand and the New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute (NZARI). EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 7/7 A draft agenda for the Retreat has been completed and it will include the first ever gathering of the Muse Award Fellows for a panel discussion entitled “Beyond the Horizon: Antarctica in 2060”. The panel will be managed by a local celebrity from New Zealand and is expected to receive wide media attention. The organizers are exploring ways to make this panel discussion widely accessible beyond the Retreat. SCAR encourages and welcomes future collaborations with the Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services.