Download SCAR - WMO

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
PANEL OF EXPERTS ON POLAR OBSERVATIONS,
RESEARCH AND SERVICES
Fifth session
EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30
Date: 13 January 2014
AGENDA ITEM: 4
Wellington, New Zealand, 25 – 28 February 2014
SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON ANTARCTIC RESEARCH (SCAR)
SUMMARY
ISSUES TO BE DISCUSSED:
This document provides a yearly update on SCAR activities, including its programmes, databases and
scientific projects and plans, particularly in the context of WMO activities.
DECISIONS/ACTIONS REQUIRED:
The Panel is invited to consider new and ongoing SCAR activities and to discuss the best means of
ensuring co-operation between WMO/PORS and SCAR on activities, such as:
 Implementation of the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS)
 The relationship between Ice Sheet Mass Balance and Sea Level (ISMASS and other activities)
 The next generation of SCAR Research Programmes such as ‘Antarctic Climate Change in the
21st Century’ (AntClim21), Solid Earth Response and Cryosphere Evolution (SERCE), and Past
Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics. (PAIS)
 The Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment Expert Group
 The SCAR Horizon Scan Activity
REFERENCES:
1. SCAR website: http://www.scar.org/
2. Key SCAR databases:
 Met. READER: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/READER/
 Ice-READER: http://icereader.org/icereader/
 Ocean Reader: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/SCAR_ssg_ps/OceanREADER/.
3. Antarctic Master Directory:
 http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/KeywordSearch/Home.do?Portal=amd&MetadataType=0).
4. SCAR's Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) report and associated updates, see:
http://www.scar.org/publications/occasionals/acce.html
5. The Southern Ocean Observing System website: http://www.soos.aq
6. The SCAR/IASC/CliC Ice Sheet Mass Balance and Sea Level (ISMASS) group:
http://www.scar.org/researchgroups/physicalscience/ismass.html
7. SCAR’s next generation of research programmes:
http://www.scar.org/researchgroups/progplanning/
8. Antarctic Permafrost and Soils (http://erth.waikato.ac.nz/antpas/)
9. The SCAR Horizon Scan: http://www.scar.org/horizonscanning/
EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 2/7
SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON ANTARCTIC RESEARCH (SCAR)
1. Background
SCAR is an interdisciplinary body of the International Council of Science (ICSU). SCAR
currently has 37 national Members and 9 ICSU Union Members. Its mission is to be the leading,
independent, non-governmental facilitator, coordinator, and advocate of excellence in Antarctic
and Southern Ocean science and research. Secondly, SCAR’s mission is to provide
independent, scientifically-based advice to the Antarctic Treaty System and other policy makers
such as the IPCC and UNFCCC. The advisory mission includes the use of science to identify
emerging issues and bringing these issues to the attention of policy makers. For further
information see www.scar.org
2. Scientific Activities of Relevance to WMO:
2.1. SCAR Scientific Research Programmes:
Although SCAR has many different groups looking at different aspects of Antarctic and
Southern Ocean Science (see http://www.scar.org/about/introduction/organization/), SCAR
focuses its scientific efforts on several Scientific Research Programmes (SRPs) that address
major topical issues of the day. These are currently:






Solid Earth Response and Cryosphere Evolution (SERCE)
Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS)
Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century (AntClim21)
Astronomy and Astrophysics from Antarctica
State of the Antarctic Ecosystem (AntECO)
Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaptation (AnT-ERA)
Further
information
on
all
these
is
available
from:
http://www.scar.org/researchgroups/progplanning/. Individual webpages will be developed as
the new SCAR website comes online (planned Feb 2014).
Of the new SRPs AntClim21 is most relevant to WMO activities. The goals of AntClim21 are to
deliver improved regional predictions of key elements of the Antarctic atmosphere, ocean and
cryosphere for the next 20 to 200 years and to understand the responses of the physical and
biological systems to natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. A primary form of data that will
be used by AntClim21 are the global coupled atmosphere-ocean model runs that form the basis
of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). Palaeo-reconstructions of selected time periods, recognised as past analogues for
future climate predictions, will be used to validate model performances for the Antarctic region.
Chief officer of this programme is Nancy Bertler [email protected].
2.2 SCAR Action and Expert Groups
SCAR also supports a variety of other scientific activities through its Standing Scientific Groups
on Physical, Geo and Life sciences, in which value is added to national efforts through
international cooperation. These activities are coordinated by Action Groups (AG) operating for
short periods, and Expert Groups (EG) where more time is needed to achieve success. Current
AGs and EGs of most relevance to WMO include:
EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 3/7




EG on GNSS Research and Application for Polar Environment (GRAPE); Contact
Giorgiana De Franceschi (e-mail: [email protected])
AG on Polar Atmospheric Chemistry at the Tropopause (PACT); Contact: Andrew
Klekociuk
([email protected])
or
Gennadi
Milinevsky
([email protected]);
EG on Operational Meteorology in the Antarctic (OpMet); contact Steve Colwell
([email protected])
AG on Action Group on Antarctic Clouds and Aerosols. Contact Tom Lachlan-Cope
([email protected])
Details
of
all
SCAR
groups
http://www.scar.org/about/introduction/organization/
can
be
found
on:
2.3 The Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment Advisory Group
www.scar.org/researchgroups/acce/
The SCAR Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) Advisory Group coordinates
research across SCAR on past and potential future climate change over the Antarctic continent
and in the Southern Ocean and prepares updates and supplements to the Antarctic Climate
Change
and
the
Environment
(2009)
report
(http://www.scar.org/publications/occasionals/acce.html) as necessary.
The latest update, an update of the key issues from the ACCE report, was published in Polar
Record in April 2013 (CJO2013. doi:10.1017/S0032247413000296). Key findings include:

Recent research has improved the reconciliation of the various satellite-derived
estimates of changes in the mass of the Antarctic ice sheet and also estimated the
contribution to sea level rise. Overall this gives a contribution from the whole Antarctic
ice sheet of +0.20 ± 0.15 mm per year, which compares to +0.39 ± 0.14 mm per year
from the Greenland ice sheet.

Ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have changed rapidly in recent decades, with
episodes of retreat, breakup and collapse occurring on both sides. The overall reduction
in total ice shelf area during the last five decades has recently been estimated to be over
28,000 km2.

Since about 1980 the ozone hole has had a major impact on the climate of high southern
latitudes, increasing the strength of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean by 1520%, slightly cooling much of the continent and decreasing the growth rate of plants.

Ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere are now decreasing by about 1% per
year. As a result the size and depth of the ozone hole have stabilised, but are not yet
decreasing.

It has been forecast that stratospheric ozone loss rates will begin to decline noticeably
between 2017 and 2021 and that by the middle of the 21st century springtime
concentrations of stratospheric ozone are expected to have significantly recovered and
will have almost fully recovered by the end of the 21st century.
EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 4/7

The large winter season warming on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula has
been traced to a decrease of sea ice just to the west of the Peninsula over the
Bellingshausen Sea. It is unclear at present whether this change is a result of
anthropogenic activity.

Reconstructions of surface temperature for West Antarctica suggest that it has warmed
markedly over the last 50 years with the Siple region identified as one of the most rapidly
warming areas on Earth. These changes have been linked to sea surface temperature
increases across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Over the period 1979–2010 the sea ice over the Southern Ocean as a whole showed a
positive trend in the annual mean of 1.3% per decade. The extent of Antarctic sea ice
reached a new record maximum for the satellite era in 2012.

Ongoing responses of the marine ecosystem to climate change include: a shift in phytoand bacterioplankton from larger to smaller species; a shrinking of Adélie and Gentoo
penguin populations; shifts in the range of Southern elephant seal populations to the
south, and decreases in the north of their range; low breeding success of Emperor
penguins in East Antarctica due to changes in the food-chain and sea-ice extent.

Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems have likewise shown a range of rapid and
sensitive responses to different aspects of environmental change, including increases in
populations, biomass and community complexity involving the native invertebrates and
plants.
The next annual update will be submitted to the Antarctic Treaty at the end of March. Chief
officer of the ACCE group is John Turner [email protected].
2.4 The Southern Ocean Observing System
www.soos.aq
The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) is co-sponsored by SCAR and SCOR and
endorsed by POGO, CLIVAR and CliC. Its mission is to establish a multidisciplinary observing
system to deliver sustained observations of the Southern Ocean. These observations are
needed to address key challenges of scientific and societal relevance, including climate change,
sea-level rise, and the impacts of global change on marine ecosystems.
The SOOS International Project Office (IPO) is hosted by the Institute for Marine and Antarctic
Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania (Australia). The SOOS IPO is also sponsored by the
Australian Antarctic Division, Australian Government (AAD), Antarctica New Zealand (ANZ), the
New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute (NZARI), the Tasmanian Government Department of
Economic Development, Tourism and the Arts, and the Tasmanian Partnership for Advanced
Computing, with in-kind support from the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS). The role
of the IPO is to act as a central contact point for SOOS, monitor progress towards SOOS goals,
facilitate coordination of field work, assist in the organisation of workshops, and synthesis
activities, and coordinate a Website/Social Media and other activities to advertise the aims and
achievements of the SOOS.
SOOS is now moving from its developmental phase (2011-2013) into its implementation phase.
EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 5/7
A 20-year vision was recently published (www.soos.aq/index.php/products/soosproducts?view=product&pid=19), and this vision, along with 10-year science theme workplans,
are being used to develop a detailed 10-year Implementation Plan, which will outline specific
mechanisms and step-wise activities required for achieving the vision.
A significant increase in support is required to enable the coordination of the implementation of
SOOS. Towards this end, SOOS is developing a Sponsorship Prospectus, to invite institutes,
organisations and other interested parties to invest in the SOOS mission. The prospectus will be
completed by the end of February 2014.
SOOS is also working with NASA to develop a new metadata portal, based on the GCMD. The
prototype of which is expected to be online by the end of February.
A number of other key activities are planned for 2014 – based on the science theme workplans
that were developed. These include a workshop on Southern Ocean Flux observations,
publication of the Under Ice strategy, a workshop (funded by ICSU, SCOR, SCAR and CAML)
on identifying ecosystem Essential Ocean Variables, and the initiation of a joint effort with CliC
towards better validation of satellite products for the Southern Ocean.
The next meeting of the SOOS Scientific Steering Committee Meeting will take place in Tromso,
Norway, hosted by the Norwegian Polar Institute, 18-20 June 2014.
2.5 The SCAR/IASC/CliC Ice Sheet Mass Balance and Sea Level (ISMASS)
http://www.scar.org/researchgroups/physicalscience/ismass.html.
(note a new webpage will be developed shortly)
The Expert Group on Ice Sheet Mass Balance and Sea Level (ISMASS) is co-sponsored by
SCAR, the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) and now by the Climate and
Cryosphere (CliC) project of WCRP. The goals of ISMASS are to promote the research on the
estimation of the mass balance of ice sheets and its contribution to sea level, to facilitate the
coordination among the different international efforts focused on this field of research, to
propose directions for future research in this area, to integrate the observations and modelling
efforts, as well as the distribution and archiving of the corresponding data, to attract a new
generation of scientists into this field of research, and to contribute to the diffusion, to society
and policy makers, of the current scientific knowledge and the main achievements in this field of
science.
ISMASS
contacts
are:
Frank
Pattyn
([email protected]),
Francisco
([email protected]) and Edward Hanna ([email protected]).
Navarro
2.6 Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Permafrost, Soils and Periglacial Environments Group
http://erth.waikato.ac.nz/antpas/
The combined IPA working group on Antarctic Permafrost and SCAR expert group on Antarctic
Soils, Permafrost and Periglacial Environments, in close working relationship with the IUSS
cryosols group, have launched the ANTPAS (Antarctic Permafrost And Soils) project to
address some of the current shortcomings and research needs. The overall aim is to develop an
internationally coordinated, web-accessible, database and monitoring system on Antarctic
EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 6/7
permafrost and soils.
Specific objectives are:
• A common, web-accessible repository for permafrost and soils data.
• The production of thematic maps on Antarctic permafrost and soils.
• A system of boreholes providing data on permafrost and soils properties, records of past
environmental change, and recording permafrost responses to climate change.
• A well-designed monitoring system recording active layer and periglacial process responses
to climate change along selected environmental gradients.
2.7 Data and Information
SCAR has developed key databases for meteorological oceanographic and ice data. These can
be accessed at:
 http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/READER/
 http://icereader.org/icereader/
 http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/SCAR_ssg_ps/OceanREADER/.
SCAR also encourages the collection and exchange of a wide variety of data through its
Antarctic Master Directory see:
http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/KeywordSearch/Home.do?Portal=amd&MetadataType=0
2.8 The SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Horizon Scan
http://www.scar.org/horizonscanning/
The “SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan” will bring together around 70
of the world’s leading Antarctic scientists, policy makers, leaders, and visionaries to identify the
most important scientific questions that will or should be addressed by research in and from the
southern Polar Regions over the next two decades.
Questions have been submitted, invitations issued, and planning is well advanced for staging
the first ever international, community–wide Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon
Scan. Community participation has been excellent with nearly 850 questions submitted
(http://www.scar.org/horizonscanning/ retreatquestions/) and almost 500 nominations received
for
the
30
or
40
“At-Large”
invitations
to
the
Retreat
(http://www.scar.org/horizonscanning/retreatattendees.html).
As one final piece of the planning efforts, discussion teams for Retreat sessions have been
announced (http://www.scar.org/ horizonscanning/news/27november2013. html) and these
teams have agreed to ensure that the voices of all are heard and considered in the deliberations
to come. The Science Horizon Scan Retreat is scheduled for 20 to 23 April 2014 in
Queenstown, New Zealand.
Another measure of community support is that many organizations are financially supporting the
Scan
effort’s
core
funding
from
the
Tinker
Foundation
(http://www.scar.org/horizonscanning/sponsors.html). The Scan organizers especially recognize
the offer to host and the financial sup- port of Antarctica New Zealand and the New Zealand
Antarctic Research Institute (NZARI).
EC-PORS-5/ INF. 30, Page 7/7
A draft agenda for the Retreat has been completed and it will include the first ever gathering of
the Muse Award Fellows for a panel discussion entitled “Beyond the Horizon: Antarctica in
2060”. The panel will be managed by a local celebrity from New Zealand and is expected to
receive wide media attention. The organizers are exploring ways to make this panel discussion
widely accessible beyond the Retreat.
SCAR encourages and welcomes future collaborations with the Panel of Experts on
Polar Observations, Research and Services.