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Understanding Predation (UP) Web of Science searches The online literature database Web of Science (WoS) was searched for relevant literature using predefined search terms. These searches were divided into four main groups, each aimed at identifying literature relevant to a different aspect of the review: ecology of the six focal prey species, effects of predators on wild birds, other drivers of change affecting wild bird populations, and evidence for effectiveness of management techniques. Search terms were constructed to balance volume of literature returned with scope and comprehensiveness of the search. The search terms used for each of these types of search are explained below. 1. Focal species: six separate searches (searches 1 to 6) were carried out, each requiring that topic words included either the common name or scientific name of one of the six focal species (Table 1). Only records including a European country or “Europe” in the topic were included, and the search was not date-restricted. Table 1. Search terms for literature relating to focal species. All searches included all of the common terms in TITLE, ABSTRACT and KEYWORDS. Search settings covered all years in the database (1864 2015). Each search also contained one specific term, relating to a focal bird species, that was searched in TITLE, ABSTRACT and KEYWORDS. Criterion AND Search Common terms (EUROPE or ESTONIA OR CROATIA OR GERMANY OR SLOVAKIA OR SPAIN OR IRELAND OR FRANCE OR GREECE OR ENGLAND OR LATVIA OR "UNITED KINGDOM" OR UKRAINE OR POLAND OR SLOVENIA OR "UK" OR BULGARIA OR ITALY OR NETHERLANDS OR WALES OR SWEDEN OR FINLAND OR ROMANIA OR SWITZERLAND OR ICELAND OR NORWAY OR DENMARK OR IRELAND OR BELGIUM OR CZECH* OR PORTUGAL OR SCOTLAND OR HUNGARY OR AUSTRIA OR BOSNIA OR YUGOSLAVIA OR ALBANIA OR MACEDONIA OR KOSOVO OR SERBIA OR MONTENEGRO OR LUXEMBOURG OR ANDORRA OR MONACO OR RUSSIA) Hits 1 Specific term "EURASIAN CURLEW" or "NUMENIUS ARQUATA" 2 "EURASIAN OYSTERCATCHER" or "HAEMATOPUS OSTRALEGUS" 1167 3 470 5 "EUROPEAN GOLDEN PLOVER" or "PLUVIALIS APRICARIA" "NORTHERN LAPWING" or "COMMON LAPWING" or "VANELLUS VANELLUS" "BLACK GROUSE" or "TETRAO TETRIX" 6 "GREY PARTRIDGE" or "PERDIX PERDIX" 4 685 1784 1083 908 2. Effects of predators: nineteen searches were carried out, each requiring that results included both of the terms BIRD* and PREDAT* (to increase the chance that it would include information about the effects of predation on birds), one of the terms POPULATION* or PRODUCTIVITY or REPRODUC* or SURVIV* or ABUNDANCE* or DISTRIBUT* (to focus the search on literature dealing with effects on bird populations), and the common or scientific name of one of 19 avian predators of wild birds in Britain and Ireland (searches 7 to 24), or elements of common or scientific names of the Page 1 of 6 main mammalian predators of wild birds (searches 25 to 33) (Table 2 for details). Only records including a European country or “Europe” in the topic were considered, and the search was restricted to the period since the writing of the previous review - 2005 to 2015. Table 2. Search terms for literature relating to predator effects. All searches included all of the common terms in TITLE, ABSTRACT and KEYWORDS. In addition, searches were restricted to the period 2005 - 2015 inclusive. Each search also contained one specific term, relating to one or more predator species, that was searched in TITLE, ABSTRACT and KEYWORDS. Criterion Common term AND BIRD* AND PREDAT* (POPULATION* or PRODUCTIVITY or REPRODUC* or SURVIV* or ABUNDANCE* or DISTRIBUT*) (UK or "UNITED KINGDOM" or "BRIT*" or WALES or SCOTLAND or IRELAND or ENGLAND) AND AND Search 7 Specific term ("Carrion Crow" or "Corvus corone") Hits 8 ("Hooded Crow" or "Corvus cornix") 46 9 ("Northern Raven" or "Corvus corax") 30 10 ("Golden Eagle" or "Aquila chrysaetos") 45 11 ("Common Buzzard" or "Buteo buteo") 109 12 34 13 ("Red Kite" or "Milvus milvus") ("Northern Goshawk" or "Accipiter gentilis") 111 14 ("Sparrowhawk" or "Accipiter nisus") 119 15 ("Peregrine" or "Falco peregrinus") 71 16 ("Hen Harrier" or "Circus cyaneus") 55 17 ("Tawny Owl" or "Strix aluco") 93 18 ("Short-eared Owl" or "Asio flammeus") 19 19 ("Arctic Skua" or "Stercorarius parasiticus") 7 20 ("Great Skua" or "Stercorarius skua" or "Catharacta skua") 27 21 ("Great Black-backed Gull" or "Larus marinus") 25 22 ("Lesser Black-backed Gull" or "Larus fulvus") 18 23 ("Herring Gull" or "Larus argentatus") 43 24 ("Common Gull" or "Larus canus") 16 25 ("Black-headed Gull" or "Chroicocephalus ridibundus" or "Larus ridibundus") 32 26 (Rat or Rattus) 126 27 (Cat or Felis) 100 28 183 29 ("Red Fox" or "Vulpes vulpes") (stoat OR weasel OR “pine marten” OR polecat OR ferret OR mink OR Mustela) 30 (otter OR “Lutra lutra”) 33 31 (squirrel OR sciurus) 44 32 (“European Hedgehog” or “Erinaceus europaeus”) 17 33 ("Badger" or "Meles meles") 23 83 150 Page 2 of 6 3. Drivers of change: eleven searches (searches 34 to 44) were carried out to identify drivers of change in wild bird populations, each requiring that results included the term BIRD* and excluded the terms POULTRY and CHICKEN (to minimise the inclusion of agricultural literature in the results). An additional search (search 45) was carried out to identify drivers of change in mammalian predators, substituting the term BIRD* with a composite term OR term comprising the elements of mammal names included in searches 25 to 33 (see Table 3 for details). In order to restrict the results to literature dealing with effects on populations, each search included a set of alternative demographic terms similar to that included in type 2 (Effects of predators) searches. However, in order to reduce the number of non-relevant records returned, the term POPULATION* was replaced with more specific terms relating to population change: "POPULATION CHANGE" or "POPULATION GROWTH" or "POPULATION DRIVER*" or "POPULATION INCREASE*" or "POPULATION DECREASE*". Each search also included a composite term intended to focus it on literature dealing with one of eleven categories population drivers: predation, environment, climate, land use, habitat, food availability, disease, grazing, chemicals and non-native species (Table 3 for details). Only records including UK or "UNITED KINGDOM" or BRIT* or WALES or SCOTLAND or IRELAND or ENGLAND were considered, and the search was restricted to the period since the writing of the previous review 2005 to 2015. Page 3 of 6 Table 3. Search terms for literature relating to drivers of wild bird population change. All searches included all of the common terms in TITLE, ABSTRACT and KEYWORDS. In addition, searches were restricted to the period 2005 - 2015 inclusive. Each search also contained one specific term, relating to one or more drivers of change, that was searched in TITLE, ABSTRACT and KEYWORDS. Criterion Common term AND BIRD* NOT (POULTRY or CHICKEN) ("POPULATION CHANGE" or "POPULATION GROWTH" or "POPULATION DRIVER*" or "POPULATION INCREASE*" or "POPULATION DECREASE*" or REPRODUC* or SURVIV* or ABUNDANCE* or DISTRIBUT*) (UK or "UNITED KINGDOM" or "BRIT*" or WALES or SCOTLAND or IRELAND or ENGLAND) AND AND Search Specific term Hits 34 PREDAT* 35 "environment* change" 55 36 "CLIMATE CHANGE" 297 37 396 39 ("LAND USE" or ABANDON* or INTENSIFI* or AFFOR*) "HABITAT CHANGE" or "HABITAT QUALITY" or "HABITAT IMPROVEMENT" or "HABITAT SUITABILITY" ("food availability" or "food supply" or "food source*" or forag* or diet*) 1057 40 DISEASE or PATHO* or parasit* 555 41 DISTURBANCE* 898 42 (DEER or LIVESTOCK or GRAZ* or SHEEP or CATTLE) 280 43 (HERBICID* or PESTICID*) 103 44 (INTRODUC* or NON-NATIVE or INVASIVE) ((Rat or Rattus) not (medic* or vet*)) or ((Cat or Felis) not (medic* or vet*)) or "Red Fox" or "Vulpes vulpes" or stoat OR weasel OR “pine marten” OR polecat OR ferret OR mink OR Mustela or otter OR “Lutra lutra” or squirrel OR sciurus or “European Hedgehog” or “Erinaceus europaeus” or "Badger" or "Meles meles" 228 38 45 905 141 568 4. Effectiveness of management: one search (search 46) was carried out for literature relating to management for wild gamebirds and waders, specifying one of three terms relating to management (MANAGEMENT or MITIGAT* or "PREDAT* CONTROL"), one of seven terms relating to gamebirds and waders (GAMEBIRD* or SHOREBIRD* or WADER* or "WADING BIRD*" or "GROUSE" or "PHEASANT*" or "PARTRIDGE*") one of four terms related to demographic targets of management (POPULATION* or PRODUCTIVITY or REPRODUC* or SURVIV* or CONSERV*). Only records including UK or "UNITED KINGDOM" or BRIT* or WALES or SCOTLAND or IRELAND or ENGLAND were considered, and the search was not date-restricted (Table 4). Page 4 of 6 The results of each search were saved as records in a separate collection in reference manager software Zotero. The records in each search included (where relevant) title, authors, keywords, source, date and abstract of each item returned by the search. The scope of literature returned by the above searches is being assessed by re-running all of these searches on time period up to 2005, and determining the proportion of the literature in the bibliography of the previous review (Park et al. 2005) that is also returned by our searches. Any literature covered in the previous review and not identified by our searches will be used to check the efficacy of our search methodology, and how best we can fill any gaps identified (whether by modifying one or more of our search terms, carrying out specific searches of one or more sources of literature, or through some other means). Table 4. Search terms for literature relating to management of wild bird populations. This search (search 46) included all of the following terms in TITLE, ABSTRACT and KEYWORDS. Search settings covered all years in the database (1864 - 2015). This search returned 793 hits. Criterion AND AND AND AND Common term (MANAGEMENT or MITIGAT* or "PREDAT* CONTROL") (GAMEBIRD* or SHOREBIRD* or WADER* or "WADING BIRD*" or "GROUSE" or "PHEASANT*" or "PARTRIDGE*") (POPULATION* or PRODUCTIVITY or REPRODUC* or SURVIV* or CONSERV*) (UK or "UNITED KINGDOM" or "BRIT*" or WALES or SCOTLAND or IRELAND or ENGLAND) Evaluation of literature The systematic searches of WoS described above generated an overall total of 14,033 records. However, many records were duplicated between searches. These records are being rationalised to eliminate duplicate records, and categorised according the search (or searches) that identified them. All records are being screened for potential relevance to the project, with records being excluded from further consideration on the basis of title, and then abstract. Non-English literature without an English abstract is being categorised separately, but will not be considered further (unless very specific knowledge gaps are identified), due to the extra time it would take to adequately translate and assess it. Records deemed to be potentially relevant on the basis of both title and abstract are being coded on a three-point scale: - Relevance level 1: deals with a process or relationship of direct relevance to the review; Relevance level 2: the topic falls within the remit of the review, but it is unclear whether the subject matter of the literature is directly relevant; Relevance level 3: unlikely to contain relevant information, but this possibility cannot be ruled out. Page 5 of 6 All literature classified as relevance level 1 will be obtained (where possible) and examined in greater detail. A subset of relevance level 2 records will also be examined; preliminary indications are that the number of records classed as level 2 will be between 3,000 and 4,000, so it is likely that we will not have sufficient time to examine all of this literature exhaustively. We will therefore focus our attention on the subset of level 2 literature that is potentially relevant to review topics where we have not yet gathered sufficient evidence to reach firm conclusions. Literature is deemed to be relevant if it quantifies a population-level effect or process and: - at a European level, deals with the predation of wild birds, or population regulation of any of the six focal species, or within Britain and Ireland, deals with population regulation of wild birds or the effectiveness of management techniques for wild birds. All literature deemed to be within the scope of the review will be coded according to the strength of population effect suggested or demonstrated by the paper (three levels from negligible effect to strong effect), and the strength/quality of evidence on which this demonstration was based. Strength of evidence will also be coded on three levels, where level 1 is causal, level 2 is correlative and level 3 is anecdotal. Literature will also be coded according to (where relevant) type of effect(s) described, predator species involved, and type of bird impacted. Individual categories will be given to each of the six focal species, and also to other groups of species to be determined during review, according to those groups for which sufficient evidence is available (e.g. taxa, guilds or groupings by broad habitat association). All literature and other evidence suggested to us by stakeholders as providing relevance about effects of predation on wild birds will be included in the review process, being subjected to the same processes of screening for relevance and assessment for strength of effect and strength/quality of evidence described above. References Park, K.J., Graham, K.E., Calladine, J., and Wernham, C.W. 2008. Impacts of birds of prey on gamebirds in the UK: a review. Ibis 150: 9-26. Page 6 of 6