full version of paper
... so readers can judge the importance of the information for themselves. Synopsis ...
... so readers can judge the importance of the information for themselves. Synopsis ...
Interactive comment on “Was the Little Ice Age more or less El Niño
... We will then run our calibration experiment, wherein we derive our optimal networks of proxy locations, using PMIP last 1000 year simulations, as suggested by the reviewer. Because the PMIP simulations show a different ENSO pattern than 20CRv2, the quality of our reconstruction will be degraded. How ...
... We will then run our calibration experiment, wherein we derive our optimal networks of proxy locations, using PMIP last 1000 year simulations, as suggested by the reviewer. Because the PMIP simulations show a different ENSO pattern than 20CRv2, the quality of our reconstruction will be degraded. How ...
Theoretical mechanism for natural radiative forcing of El Nino
... Cobb, K.M., C.D. Charles, R.L Edwards, H. Cheng, El NiñoSouthern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium, Nature, 424, 271-276, 2003. ...
... Cobb, K.M., C.D. Charles, R.L Edwards, H. Cheng, El NiñoSouthern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium, Nature, 424, 271-276, 2003. ...
Introduction to Climate Change Part II: Anthropogenic Climate Change
... The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cam ...
... The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cam ...
Climatology and Climate Change
... So here is IPCC's much more careful look at a possible correlation 200 years of worldwide TEMPERATURE data: ...
... So here is IPCC's much more careful look at a possible correlation 200 years of worldwide TEMPERATURE data: ...
Activity 2.1: Historical Climate Cycles
... ago. Limiting human-caused warming to 2 degrees is not sufficient," Hansen said. "It would be a prescription for disaster." Hansen focused much of his new work on how the polar regions and in particular the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland will react to a warming world. Two degrees Celsius of ...
... ago. Limiting human-caused warming to 2 degrees is not sufficient," Hansen said. "It would be a prescription for disaster." Hansen focused much of his new work on how the polar regions and in particular the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland will react to a warming world. Two degrees Celsius of ...
Past, Present and Future Mean Temperatures for Earth`s
... variations include volcanic activity that release both aerosol and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The Earth’s orbit can also cause the mean temperature to change based on its location and relative to the sun and changes in the sun’s intensity.xiii According to the Environmental Protection Agenc ...
... variations include volcanic activity that release both aerosol and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The Earth’s orbit can also cause the mean temperature to change based on its location and relative to the sun and changes in the sun’s intensity.xiii According to the Environmental Protection Agenc ...
Be skeptical of Skeptic`s skepticism of skeptics
... The existence of a prolonged warm period so recently in the Earth’s climate history was making it impossible for the environmental extremists driving the climate scare to convince the world’s policymakers that today’s comparatively temperate temperatures were anything to worry about. The “hockey st ...
... The existence of a prolonged warm period so recently in the Earth’s climate history was making it impossible for the environmental extremists driving the climate scare to convince the world’s policymakers that today’s comparatively temperate temperatures were anything to worry about. The “hockey st ...
Pseudoscientific elements in climate change research
... with this, and despite computer projections of temperature rises, there has been no net global warming since 1998. That the current temperature plateau ...
... with this, and despite computer projections of temperature rises, there has been no net global warming since 1998. That the current temperature plateau ...
The Little Ice Age in Scientiªc Perspective: Cold
... arctica where recent temperatures are still ºuctuating below earlier levels, possibly reºecting effects of climate inertia from the surrounding oceans, although the causal mechanism is still uncertain.7 Focusing on the European Alps, at least two independent proxy archives—glaciers and tree rings—ex ...
... arctica where recent temperatures are still ºuctuating below earlier levels, possibly reºecting effects of climate inertia from the surrounding oceans, although the causal mechanism is still uncertain.7 Focusing on the European Alps, at least two independent proxy archives—glaciers and tree rings—ex ...
Theoretical mechanism for natural radiative forcing of El Nino
... tropical volcanic eruptions are consistent with results based on simulations with the Cane-Zebiak model •Coral evidence of La Nina-like anomalies during the 12thearly 13th centuries, and El Nino-like anomalies during the late 17th century, are reproduced by the simulated response to total (solar+vol ...
... tropical volcanic eruptions are consistent with results based on simulations with the Cane-Zebiak model •Coral evidence of La Nina-like anomalies during the 12thearly 13th centuries, and El Nino-like anomalies during the late 17th century, are reproduced by the simulated response to total (solar+vol ...
borehole
... reconstructions of past temperatures from the pre-industrial as well as the industrial period are essential. But instrumental records are typically available for no more than the past 150 years. Therefore reconstructions of pre-industrial climate rely principally on traditional climate proxy records ...
... reconstructions of past temperatures from the pre-industrial as well as the industrial period are essential. But instrumental records are typically available for no more than the past 150 years. Therefore reconstructions of pre-industrial climate rely principally on traditional climate proxy records ...
Addressing the Disparity between Climate Models and
... • Based on tree-rings, ice-cores, lake-sediments, etc. – i.e., independent non-thermometer data • They confirm 1910-40 warming by weather stations; but show no post-1940 warming -- unlike land-sfc temp, which IPCC uses for its AGW claim • (The Hockeystick authors [MBH Nature 1998] suppressed their p ...
... • Based on tree-rings, ice-cores, lake-sediments, etc. – i.e., independent non-thermometer data • They confirm 1910-40 warming by weather stations; but show no post-1940 warming -- unlike land-sfc temp, which IPCC uses for its AGW claim • (The Hockeystick authors [MBH Nature 1998] suppressed their p ...
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
... Future Climate Projections: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) For its Fourth Assessment Report released in 2007, the IPCC considered several possible futures based on factors including population growth, economic development, and technological change. Each scenario was linked to esti ...
... Future Climate Projections: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) For its Fourth Assessment Report released in 2007, the IPCC considered several possible futures based on factors including population growth, economic development, and technological change. Each scenario was linked to esti ...
Global Climate Change
... We are coming out of a long term cold spell. Temperatures might be expected to rise slightly long term The 1945 peak and the medieval warm period (MWP) present a problem for AGW. The models cannot explain how climate can change > 0.5C without an increase in CO2 Both climate events have been the subj ...
... We are coming out of a long term cold spell. Temperatures might be expected to rise slightly long term The 1945 peak and the medieval warm period (MWP) present a problem for AGW. The models cannot explain how climate can change > 0.5C without an increase in CO2 Both climate events have been the subj ...
Reply to comment on ``Ground vs. surface air temperature trends
... [1] We welcome further investigation of the issues raised in our recently published paper ‘‘Ground vs. surface air temperature trends: Implications for borehole surface temperature reconstructions’’ [Mann and Schmidt, 2003] (hereinafter referred to as MS03). There are many confounding influences on ...
... [1] We welcome further investigation of the issues raised in our recently published paper ‘‘Ground vs. surface air temperature trends: Implications for borehole surface temperature reconstructions’’ [Mann and Schmidt, 2003] (hereinafter referred to as MS03). There are many confounding influences on ...
climate_change_pt2
... If you were to walk by early in the morning it is likely that the students would be inside sleeping (or in one of the 8 am NATS 101 classes). In that case you might look for other clues (such as the number of empty bottles in the yard) that might give you an idea of how many students lived in that ...
... If you were to walk by early in the morning it is likely that the students would be inside sleeping (or in one of the 8 am NATS 101 classes). In that case you might look for other clues (such as the number of empty bottles in the yard) that might give you an idea of how many students lived in that ...
Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and
... Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly Michael E. Mann,1* Zhihua Zhang,1 Scott Rutherford,2 Raymond S. Bradley,3 Malcolm K. Hughes,4 Drew Shindell,5 Caspar Ammann,6 Greg Faluvegi,5 Fenbiao Ni4 Global temperatures are known to have varied over the past 1500 years, but the spatial ...
... Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly Michael E. Mann,1* Zhihua Zhang,1 Scott Rutherford,2 Raymond S. Bradley,3 Malcolm K. Hughes,4 Drew Shindell,5 Caspar Ammann,6 Greg Faluvegi,5 Fenbiao Ni4 Global temperatures are known to have varied over the past 1500 years, but the spatial ...
Cooling Following Large Volcanic Eruptions
... without tree ring data. Because of the small sample, sophisticated statistical tests of this effect would not be appropriate. The conclusion that tree-ring-based reconstructions produce less cooling should be considered in light of the characteristics of the reconstructed time series. The tree-ring ...
... without tree ring data. Because of the small sample, sophisticated statistical tests of this effect would not be appropriate. The conclusion that tree-ring-based reconstructions produce less cooling should be considered in light of the characteristics of the reconstructed time series. The tree-ring ...
CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7
... Over the last 800,000 years, rises in global temperatures have preceded increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere by up to 800 years Global temperatures fell from 1940 to 1979 whilst CO2 emissions escalated throughout the post-war industrial boom C02 concentration in the atmosphere has b ...
... Over the last 800,000 years, rises in global temperatures have preceded increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere by up to 800 years Global temperatures fell from 1940 to 1979 whilst CO2 emissions escalated throughout the post-war industrial boom C02 concentration in the atmosphere has b ...
Oxygen isotopes as tracers of Mediterranean climate variability
... from northern Italy and the ancient Lake Ohrid. M. Jones presented a mass balance model of isotope response to climatic forcing for different lake types, while J. Andrews showed how laminated tufa deposits from Greece can potentially provide a signal of past climate seasonality. Session 3 was devote ...
... from northern Italy and the ancient Lake Ohrid. M. Jones presented a mass balance model of isotope response to climatic forcing for different lake types, while J. Andrews showed how laminated tufa deposits from Greece can potentially provide a signal of past climate seasonality. Session 3 was devote ...
Natural or Anthropogenic?
... What inputs do they use – review of some global warming evidence How do they make models? What are the projections? Conclusion ...
... What inputs do they use – review of some global warming evidence How do they make models? What are the projections? Conclusion ...
The Science of Climate Change - Bren School of Environmental
... greenhouse gases are a danger to public health ...
... greenhouse gases are a danger to public health ...
past, present and future climates
... • Water & sulfuric acid clouds • Temperature: >800°F – more than twice as hot as Mercury ...
... • Water & sulfuric acid clouds • Temperature: >800°F – more than twice as hot as Mercury ...
A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology
... The high-resolution reconstruction of hemispheric-scale temperature variation over the past-millennium benchmarks recent warming against more naturally driven climate episodes, such as the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period, thereby allowing assessment of the relative efficacies of natural ...
... The high-resolution reconstruction of hemispheric-scale temperature variation over the past-millennium benchmarks recent warming against more naturally driven climate episodes, such as the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period, thereby allowing assessment of the relative efficacies of natural ...
Hockey stick controversy
In the hockey stick controversy, the data and methods used in reconstructions of the temperature record of the past 1000 years have been disputed. Reconstructions have consistently shown that the rise in the instrumental temperature record of the past 150 years is not matched in earlier centuries, and the name ""hockey stick graph"" was coined for figures showing a long-term decline followed by an abrupt rise in temperatures. These graphs were publicised to explain the scientific findings of climatology, and in addition to scientific debate over the reconstructions, they have been the topic of political dispute. The issue is part of the global warming controversy and has been one focus of political responses to reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Arguments over the reconstructions have been taken up by fossil fuel industry funded lobbying groups attempting to cast doubt on climate science.The use of proxy indicators to get quantitative estimates of the temperature record of past centuries was developed from the 1990s onwards, and found indications that recent warming was exceptional. The Bradley & Jones 1993 reconstruction introduced the ""Composite Plus Scaling"" (CPS) method used by most later large-scale reconstructions, and its findings were disputed by Pat Michaels at the United States House Committee on Science.In 1998 Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes developed new statistical techniques to produce Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1998 (MBH98), the first eigenvector-based climate field reconstruction (CFR). This showed global patterns of annual surface temperature, and included a graph of average hemispheric temperatures back to 1400. In Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999 (MBH99) the methodology was extended back to 1000. The term hockey stick was coined by the climatologist Jerry Mahlman, to describe the pattern this showed, envisaging a graph that is relatively flat to 1900 as forming an Ice hockey stick's ""shaft"", followed by a sharp increase corresponding to the ""blade"".A version of this graph was featured prominently in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), along with four other reconstructions supporting the same conclusion. The graph was publicised, and became a focus of dispute for those opposed to the strengthening scientific consensus that late 20th century warmth was exceptional.Those disputing the graph included Pat Michaels, the George C. Marshall Institute and Fred Singer. A paper by Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas claiming greater medieval warmth was used by the Bush administration chief of staff Philip Cooney to justify altering the first Environmental Protection Agency Report on the Environment. The paper was quickly dismissed by scientists in the Soon and Baliunas controversy, but on July 28, Republican Jim Inhofe spoke in the Senate citing it to claim ""that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people"".Later in 2003, a paper by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick disputing the data used in MBH98 paper was publicised by the George C. Marshall Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute. In 2004 Hans von Storch published criticism of the statistical techniques as tending to underplay variations in earlier parts of the graph, though this was disputed and he later accepted that the effect was very small. In 2005 McIntyre and McKitrick published criticisms of the principal components analysis methodology as used in MBH98 and MBH99. The analysis therein was subsequently disputed by published papers including Huybers 2005 and Wahl & Ammann 2007 which pointed to errors in the McIntyre and McKitrick methodology. In June 2005 Rep. Joe Barton launched what Sherwood Boehlert, chairman of the House Science Committee, called a ""misguided and illegitimate investigation"" into the data, methods and personal information of Mann, Bradley and Hughes. At Boehlert's request a panel of scientists convened by the National Research Council was set up, which reported in 2006 supporting Mann's findings with some qualifications, including agreeing that there were some statistical failings but these had little effect on the result. Barton and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield requested Edward Wegman to set up a team of statisticians to investigate, and they supported McIntyre and McKitrick's view that there were statistical failings, although they did not quantify whether there was any significant effect. They also produced an extensive network analysis which has been discredited by expert opinion and found to have issues of plagiarism. Arguments against the MBH studies were reintroduced as part of the Climatic Research Unit email controversy, but dismissed by eight independent investigations.More than two dozen reconstructions, using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records, have supported the broad consensus shown in the original 1998 hockey-stick graph, with variations in how flat the pre-20th century ""shaft"" appears. The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report cited 14 reconstructions, 10 of which covered 1,000 years or longer, to support its strengthened conclusion that it was likely that Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the 20th century were the highest in at least the past 1,300 years. Over a dozen subsequent reconstructions, including Mann et al. 2008 and PAGES 2k Consortium 2013, have supported these general conclusions.