Consensus‟ Exposed: The CRU Controversy - Inhofe
... features emails from the world‘s leading climate scientists—emails that show behavior contrary to the practice of objective science and potentially federal law. We note at the outset an important distinction between, as Stephen Hayward put it, ―utterly politicized scientists,‖ such as those at the c ...
... features emails from the world‘s leading climate scientists—emails that show behavior contrary to the practice of objective science and potentially federal law. We note at the outset an important distinction between, as Stephen Hayward put it, ―utterly politicized scientists,‖ such as those at the c ...
Climate of the Past
... data – i.e. climate proxy records – are further needed for validation of climate models, to assure that the models are able to reproduce the observed climate change. Reconstructions of past climate changes can be obtained by analyzing different types of proxy data from natural archives, like biologi ...
... data – i.e. climate proxy records – are further needed for validation of climate models, to assure that the models are able to reproduce the observed climate change. Reconstructions of past climate changes can be obtained by analyzing different types of proxy data from natural archives, like biologi ...
Polar Lows - Hans von Storch
... Scenario findings: Polar Lows: Number decreases, pattern shifts poleward. Typhoons: Number and intensity in scenario A1B slightly decreasing, while intensity almost stationary. Note – only one scenario. Scenarios not (very) consistent with reconstructions 1. Polar lows: reconstructions: no change, ...
... Scenario findings: Polar Lows: Number decreases, pattern shifts poleward. Typhoons: Number and intensity in scenario A1B slightly decreasing, while intensity almost stationary. Note – only one scenario. Scenarios not (very) consistent with reconstructions 1. Polar lows: reconstructions: no change, ...
Cosmic Rays, Carbon Dioxide, and Climate
... Irrespective of the data quality, the simple regression method of Shaviv and Veizer [2003] is unsuitable for estimating the climate sensitivity to a CO doubling.The main reasons are that (i) other forcing and feedback factors may co-vary in a statistically dependent way with CO and cannot be separat ...
... Irrespective of the data quality, the simple regression method of Shaviv and Veizer [2003] is unsuitable for estimating the climate sensitivity to a CO doubling.The main reasons are that (i) other forcing and feedback factors may co-vary in a statistically dependent way with CO and cannot be separat ...
New Observations Show - The Science and Public Policy Institute
... some time now posted a review of a different research project every single week that testifies to the reality of the Medieval Warm Period. And that ever-growing body of research is demonstrating beyond any doubt that there was a several-hundred-year interval of warmth back then that was at many diff ...
... some time now posted a review of a different research project every single week that testifies to the reality of the Medieval Warm Period. And that ever-growing body of research is demonstrating beyond any doubt that there was a several-hundred-year interval of warmth back then that was at many diff ...
Climate Science: Is it currently designed to answer questions
... It is my impression that by the end of the 60’s scientists, themselves, came to feel that the real basis for support was not gratitude (and the associated trust that support would bring further benefit) but fear: fear of the Soviet Union, fear of cancer, etc. Many will conclude that this was merely ...
... It is my impression that by the end of the 60’s scientists, themselves, came to feel that the real basis for support was not gratitude (and the associated trust that support would bring further benefit) but fear: fear of the Soviet Union, fear of cancer, etc. Many will conclude that this was merely ...
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Why the
... which are nominated by governments and international organizations and selected for a specific task according to their expertise. They come from universities, research centers, business and environmental associations and other organizations from more than 100 countries. Several hundred experts from ...
... which are nominated by governments and international organizations and selected for a specific task according to their expertise. They come from universities, research centers, business and environmental associations and other organizations from more than 100 countries. Several hundred experts from ...
Increase of extreme events in a warming world
... thus explains why records occurred only in the 1930s and in the last decade. Fig. 4 clearly shows that the warming trend after 1980 has multiplied the likelihood of a new heat record in Moscow and would have provided a strong reason to expect it before it occurred. Our results thus explicitly contra ...
... thus explains why records occurred only in the 1930s and in the last decade. Fig. 4 clearly shows that the warming trend after 1980 has multiplied the likelihood of a new heat record in Moscow and would have provided a strong reason to expect it before it occurred. Our results thus explicitly contra ...
MO House Testimony May 29 2014 Final
... supposed to be policy relevant but not policy prescriptive. IPCC assesses the effectiveness of policies but does not recommend that any particular policy or set of polices be adopted. Each Summary for Policymakers goes through two rounds of review, much like the chapter reviews described above, alt ...
... supposed to be policy relevant but not policy prescriptive. IPCC assesses the effectiveness of policies but does not recommend that any particular policy or set of polices be adopted. Each Summary for Policymakers goes through two rounds of review, much like the chapter reviews described above, alt ...
Borehole temperatures and tree rings: Seasonality and
... its area, and then averaging all grid cells together. The mean reduced temperature profile has an amplitude of 0.5°C at 30 m that extrapolates to an amplitude of 0.8°C at the surface. This profile represents a diffused consequence of temperature change at the Earth’s surface over the past century or ...
... its area, and then averaging all grid cells together. The mean reduced temperature profile has an amplitude of 0.5°C at 30 m that extrapolates to an amplitude of 0.8°C at the surface. This profile represents a diffused consequence of temperature change at the Earth’s surface over the past century or ...
Microsoft Word
... CASE STUDY: Global Warming – the forest from the trees 3. Measuring the daily maximum and minimum air temperature. Air temperatures over land are usually measured at a height of between 1.2 and 2.0 m above ground in a Stevenson Screen. Liquid-in-glass thermometers are the traditional instruments us ...
... CASE STUDY: Global Warming – the forest from the trees 3. Measuring the daily maximum and minimum air temperature. Air temperatures over land are usually measured at a height of between 1.2 and 2.0 m above ground in a Stevenson Screen. Liquid-in-glass thermometers are the traditional instruments us ...
European summer temperatures since Roman times
... international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotem ...
... international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotem ...
CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate: COMMENT
... Royer et al. (2004) introduce a seawater pH correction to the Phanerozoic temperature reconstruction based on δ18O variations in marine fossils. Although this correction is a novel idea and it is likely to have played some role in offsetting the δ18O record, we show that (a) the correction cannot be ...
... Royer et al. (2004) introduce a seawater pH correction to the Phanerozoic temperature reconstruction based on δ18O variations in marine fossils. Although this correction is a novel idea and it is likely to have played some role in offsetting the δ18O record, we show that (a) the correction cannot be ...
Atmospheric Circulations do not Explain the
... related socioeconomic processes have been identified and filtered out, leaving behind a “pure” record of climatic change. But several studies have shown a correlation between the spatial pattern of warming trends in climatic data products and the spatial pattern of industrialization, indicating that ...
... related socioeconomic processes have been identified and filtered out, leaving behind a “pure” record of climatic change. But several studies have shown a correlation between the spatial pattern of warming trends in climatic data products and the spatial pattern of industrialization, indicating that ...
2016/03/PR PRESS RELEASE 14 April 2016 IPCC agrees special
... we know and don’t know about the risks related to climate change. The IPCC identifies where there is agreement in the scientific community, where there are differences of opinion, and where further research is needed. Thus the IPCC offers policymakers a snapshot of what the scientific community unde ...
... we know and don’t know about the risks related to climate change. The IPCC identifies where there is agreement in the scientific community, where there are differences of opinion, and where further research is needed. Thus the IPCC offers policymakers a snapshot of what the scientific community unde ...
Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming
... 800,000 years. She spoke of being at the artic in 2011 and there was open water for miles due to the melting poles. She said the ice at the poles has decreased 52%. She spoke of how forest fires are worse because the warming is causing them to dry out (she fails to mention the Federal government not ...
... 800,000 years. She spoke of being at the artic in 2011 and there was open water for miles due to the melting poles. She said the ice at the poles has decreased 52%. She spoke of how forest fires are worse because the warming is causing them to dry out (she fails to mention the Federal government not ...
Five centuries of climate change in Australia: the view from
... anomaly series, we employ the trend-matching convention of Pollack and Smerdon (2004), modified slightly because the majority of the borehole temperature profiles used in the Australian reconstruction were logged relatively early in the second half of the 20th century (Fig. 3). The dataset has a med ...
... anomaly series, we employ the trend-matching convention of Pollack and Smerdon (2004), modified slightly because the majority of the borehole temperature profiles used in the Australian reconstruction were logged relatively early in the second half of the 20th century (Fig. 3). The dataset has a med ...
Activity 2.2: Historical Climate Cycles
... activity has not increased during the half-century since 1950. As for cosmic rays, they have been measured since the 1950s and likewise show no long-term trend. The continuing satellite measurements of the solar constant found it cycling within narrow limits, scarcely one part in a thousand. However ...
... activity has not increased during the half-century since 1950. As for cosmic rays, they have been measured since the 1950s and likewise show no long-term trend. The continuing satellite measurements of the solar constant found it cycling within narrow limits, scarcely one part in a thousand. However ...
Atmospheric Circulations Do Not Explain the Temperature
... processes have been identified and filtered out, leaving behind a “pure” record of climatic change. But several studies have shown a correlation between the spatial pattern of warming trends in climatic data products and the spatial pattern of industrialization, indicating that local non-climatic ef ...
... processes have been identified and filtered out, leaving behind a “pure” record of climatic change. But several studies have shown a correlation between the spatial pattern of warming trends in climatic data products and the spatial pattern of industrialization, indicating that local non-climatic ef ...
Climate of the Past
... Bradley et al., 2003; Osborn and Briffa, 2006). This has led to the introduction of the term “Medieval Warm Period” or “Medieval Warm Epoch”, which originated from the examination of primarily western European documentary proxy evidence (Lamb, 1965). The underlying cause for this apparent warm perio ...
... Bradley et al., 2003; Osborn and Briffa, 2006). This has led to the introduction of the term “Medieval Warm Period” or “Medieval Warm Epoch”, which originated from the examination of primarily western European documentary proxy evidence (Lamb, 1965). The underlying cause for this apparent warm perio ...
Record-breaking temperatures reveal a warming climate
... ature records in data set EI. The figure depicts the measured daily record frequency for upper records of dTmax, obtained both from a forward analysis (where a record is the highest value of dTmax since 1906) and from a backward analysis (where years are counted backwards in time and records are def ...
... ature records in data set EI. The figure depicts the measured daily record frequency for upper records of dTmax, obtained both from a forward analysis (where a record is the highest value of dTmax since 1906) and from a backward analysis (where years are counted backwards in time and records are def ...
Submission regarding Australia UNFCC
... WGI, chapter 10, page 880, section 10.3.1.1.2 I said earlier that models are used for both predicting future temperatures and estimating the human influence. The latest IPCC report expresses this as follows: "Climate models are the primary tools available for investigating the response of the climat ...
... WGI, chapter 10, page 880, section 10.3.1.1.2 I said earlier that models are used for both predicting future temperatures and estimating the human influence. The latest IPCC report expresses this as follows: "Climate models are the primary tools available for investigating the response of the climat ...
Man-‐Made Global Warming is a Scam
... disbanded or the country will waste money similarly. Reducing CO2 emissions requires huge cost. Currently the amount of money being spent globally, supposedly to reduce ‘man’s carbon footprint’, is in the ...
... disbanded or the country will waste money similarly. Reducing CO2 emissions requires huge cost. Currently the amount of money being spent globally, supposedly to reduce ‘man’s carbon footprint’, is in the ...
A Logical Argument Against Man Made Global Warming for the
... The "Hockey Stick" In the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report, one of the lead authors, Michael Mann, relied heavily on his own research. Mann's research used a new statistical analysis method to analyze temperature data. His results did not show the past temperature periods known as the "medieval wa ...
... The "Hockey Stick" In the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report, one of the lead authors, Michael Mann, relied heavily on his own research. Mann's research used a new statistical analysis method to analyze temperature data. His results did not show the past temperature periods known as the "medieval wa ...
Hockey stick controversy
In the hockey stick controversy, the data and methods used in reconstructions of the temperature record of the past 1000 years have been disputed. Reconstructions have consistently shown that the rise in the instrumental temperature record of the past 150 years is not matched in earlier centuries, and the name ""hockey stick graph"" was coined for figures showing a long-term decline followed by an abrupt rise in temperatures. These graphs were publicised to explain the scientific findings of climatology, and in addition to scientific debate over the reconstructions, they have been the topic of political dispute. The issue is part of the global warming controversy and has been one focus of political responses to reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Arguments over the reconstructions have been taken up by fossil fuel industry funded lobbying groups attempting to cast doubt on climate science.The use of proxy indicators to get quantitative estimates of the temperature record of past centuries was developed from the 1990s onwards, and found indications that recent warming was exceptional. The Bradley & Jones 1993 reconstruction introduced the ""Composite Plus Scaling"" (CPS) method used by most later large-scale reconstructions, and its findings were disputed by Pat Michaels at the United States House Committee on Science.In 1998 Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes developed new statistical techniques to produce Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1998 (MBH98), the first eigenvector-based climate field reconstruction (CFR). This showed global patterns of annual surface temperature, and included a graph of average hemispheric temperatures back to 1400. In Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999 (MBH99) the methodology was extended back to 1000. The term hockey stick was coined by the climatologist Jerry Mahlman, to describe the pattern this showed, envisaging a graph that is relatively flat to 1900 as forming an Ice hockey stick's ""shaft"", followed by a sharp increase corresponding to the ""blade"".A version of this graph was featured prominently in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), along with four other reconstructions supporting the same conclusion. The graph was publicised, and became a focus of dispute for those opposed to the strengthening scientific consensus that late 20th century warmth was exceptional.Those disputing the graph included Pat Michaels, the George C. Marshall Institute and Fred Singer. A paper by Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas claiming greater medieval warmth was used by the Bush administration chief of staff Philip Cooney to justify altering the first Environmental Protection Agency Report on the Environment. The paper was quickly dismissed by scientists in the Soon and Baliunas controversy, but on July 28, Republican Jim Inhofe spoke in the Senate citing it to claim ""that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people"".Later in 2003, a paper by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick disputing the data used in MBH98 paper was publicised by the George C. Marshall Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute. In 2004 Hans von Storch published criticism of the statistical techniques as tending to underplay variations in earlier parts of the graph, though this was disputed and he later accepted that the effect was very small. In 2005 McIntyre and McKitrick published criticisms of the principal components analysis methodology as used in MBH98 and MBH99. The analysis therein was subsequently disputed by published papers including Huybers 2005 and Wahl & Ammann 2007 which pointed to errors in the McIntyre and McKitrick methodology. In June 2005 Rep. Joe Barton launched what Sherwood Boehlert, chairman of the House Science Committee, called a ""misguided and illegitimate investigation"" into the data, methods and personal information of Mann, Bradley and Hughes. At Boehlert's request a panel of scientists convened by the National Research Council was set up, which reported in 2006 supporting Mann's findings with some qualifications, including agreeing that there were some statistical failings but these had little effect on the result. Barton and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield requested Edward Wegman to set up a team of statisticians to investigate, and they supported McIntyre and McKitrick's view that there were statistical failings, although they did not quantify whether there was any significant effect. They also produced an extensive network analysis which has been discredited by expert opinion and found to have issues of plagiarism. Arguments against the MBH studies were reintroduced as part of the Climatic Research Unit email controversy, but dismissed by eight independent investigations.More than two dozen reconstructions, using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records, have supported the broad consensus shown in the original 1998 hockey-stick graph, with variations in how flat the pre-20th century ""shaft"" appears. The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report cited 14 reconstructions, 10 of which covered 1,000 years or longer, to support its strengthened conclusion that it was likely that Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the 20th century were the highest in at least the past 1,300 years. Over a dozen subsequent reconstructions, including Mann et al. 2008 and PAGES 2k Consortium 2013, have supported these general conclusions.