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Annual Economic Outlook 2016
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... a time when commodity prices have slumped. – Following the temporary recovery in the price of oil between March and May 2015 to US$6065 per barrel, prices fell again in Q3 2015 and Q4 2015, with the West Texas Intermediate oil price falling below US$40 per barrel in December. I believe that oil pri ...
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... supply growth. It follows that differences in nominal interest rates may be due to differences in inflation rates. There may be some difference in real interest rates, but if we suppose these are small, then we predict that Bolivia, Russia, and Turkey have higher inflation, and Japan has lower infla ...
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... 1. (20 pts) Suppose that this year’s money supply is $500 Billion, nominal GDP is $10 trillion, and real GDP is $5 trillion. a. What is the Price level? What is the Velocity of Money? b. Suppose the Velocity of money is constant and the economy’s output of goods and services increases by 5% per year ...
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... respond to the higher prices and reduced output with government policy. One logical approach would be to increase aggregate demand so that output returns to full employment levels. If we shift the aggregate demand curve outwards by increasing government spending, by monetary policy to lower interest ...
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Long Depression



The Long Depression was a worldwide price recession, beginning in 1873 and running through the spring of 1879. It was the most severe in Europe and the United States, which had been experiencing strong economic growth fueled by the Second Industrial Revolution in the decade following the American Civil War. The episode was labeled the ""Great Depression"" at the time, and it held that designation until the Great Depression of the 1930s. Though a period of general deflation and a general contraction, it did not have the severe economic retrogression of the Great Depression.It was most notable in Western Europe and North America, at least in part because reliable data from the period are most readily available in those parts of the world. The United Kingdom is often considered to have been the hardest hit; during this period it lost some of its large industrial lead over the economies of Continental Europe. While it was occurring, the view was prominent that the economy of the United Kingdom had been in continuous depression from 1873 to as late as 1896 and some texts refer to the period as the Great Depression of 1873–96.In the United States, economists typically refer to the Long Depression as the Depression of 1873–79, kicked off by the Panic of 1873, and followed by the Panic of 1893, book-ending the entire period of the wider Long Depression. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the contraction following the panic as lasting from October 1873 to March 1879. At 65 months, it is the longest-lasting contraction identified by the NBER, eclipsing the Great Depression's 43 months of contraction.In the US, from 1873–1879, 18,000 businesses went bankrupt, including 89 railroads. Ten states and hundreds of banks went bankrupt. Unemployment peaked in 1878, long after the panic ended. Different sources peg the peak unemployment rate anywhere from 8.25% to 14%.
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