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Monetary Policy Report
Monetary Policy Report

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Smart Saving for College—Better Buy Degrees: 529 Plans
Smart Saving for College—Better Buy Degrees: 529 Plans

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... gap measures) produced very low (but increasing) probabilities of crisis before 2007 (IMF, 2011b). Thus, while deciding on when to act, policy makers need to compare the possible benefits of avoiding a crisis and/or reducing the depth of a crisis, with the cost of tightening up on intermediation (an ...
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... any attempt of the sectors to improve their balances may lead to lower output if the other sectors do not desire to experience lower balances. A distinguishing feature of the financial balances approach is the consolidation of households, firms and banks into one single private sector. This implies ...
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Estimating the Indian Natural Interest Rate and Evaluating Policy

... 1. In equation (6), ω is difficult to estimate as it relates two unobserved series, gt and rt∗ . Estimation is ambitious especially given the small size of our sample. But the theoretical restrictions and EM structure discussed above suggest calibrations for ω. 2. The standard deviation of ye, σy , ...
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0324236956_122417

...  When the government alters spending or taxes, the resulting shift in aggregate demand can be larger or smaller than the fiscal change: The multiplier effect tends to amplify the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand. The crowding-out effect tends to dampen the effects of fiscal policy on ag ...
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Miller

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Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?
Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?

... 2008, 56). Then-Chairman Bernanke described the resulting December 2008 forward guidance statement as “a forecast of policy rather than a commitment to policy, but [one that provides] some information about the Committee’s expectations and should affect market rates” (25). Evidently, the Committee u ...
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Pensions crisis

The pensions crisis is a predicted difficulty in paying for corporate, state, and federal pensions in the United States and Europe, due to a difference between pension obligations and the resources set aside to fund them. Shifting demographics are causing a lower ratio of workers per retiree; contributing factors include retirees living longer (increasing the relative number of retirees), and lower birth rates (decreasing the relative number of workers, especially relative to the Post-WW2 Baby Boom). There is significant debate regarding the magnitude and importance of the problem, as well as the solutions.For example, as of 2008, the estimates for the underfunding of U.S. states' pension programs range from $1 trillion using the discount rate of 8% to $3.23 trillion using U.S. Treasury bond yields as the discount rate. The present value of unfunded obligations under Social Security as of August 2010 was approximately $5.4 trillion. In other words, this amount would have to be set aside today such that the principal and interest would cover the program's shortfall between tax revenues and payouts over the next 75 years.Some economists question the concept of funding, and, therefore underfunding. Storing funds by governments, in the form of fiat currencies, is the functional equivalent of storing a collection of their own IOUs. They will be equally inflationary to newly written ones when they do come to be used.Reform ideas are in three primary categories: a) Addressing the worker-retiree ratio, via raising the retirement age, employment policy and immigration policy; b) Reducing obligations via shifting from defined benefit to defined contribution pension types and reducing future payment amounts (by, for example, adjusting the formula that determines the level of benefits); and c) Increasing resources to fund pensions via increasing contribution rates and raising taxes.
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