Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of
... where PHistNat and PRCP8.5 are the probabilities of a warm annual CET value (T > + 1.38 °C) in the historicalNat and RCP8.5 simulations respectively. The threshold for the FAR analysis of +1.38 °C was chosen as it is the second warmest annual CET anomaly in the observed 1659–2014 series and occurred ...
... where PHistNat and PRCP8.5 are the probabilities of a warm annual CET value (T > + 1.38 °C) in the historicalNat and RCP8.5 simulations respectively. The threshold for the FAR analysis of +1.38 °C was chosen as it is the second warmest annual CET anomaly in the observed 1659–2014 series and occurred ...
Partisan Group Identity and Belief in Human
... (Lupia & McCubbins, 1998). In the case of climate change, those with clear positions likely obtain them from elite cues – where elite Republicans oppose the view that climate change is largely human-caused, while elite Democrats support it (Bolsen, Druckman, & Cook, 2015, p. 286).2 Those who are kn ...
... (Lupia & McCubbins, 1998). In the case of climate change, those with clear positions likely obtain them from elite cues – where elite Republicans oppose the view that climate change is largely human-caused, while elite Democrats support it (Bolsen, Druckman, & Cook, 2015, p. 286).2 Those who are kn ...
- Wiley Online Library
... is seen that the GCMs tend to have too much variability in the northern extra-tropical region, by up to 20% [also see Mahlstein et al., 2011]. Considering that the observations are likely to be an over-estimate of the true internal variability (see Section 2), this finding would appear to be robust. ...
... is seen that the GCMs tend to have too much variability in the northern extra-tropical region, by up to 20% [also see Mahlstein et al., 2011]. Considering that the observations are likely to be an over-estimate of the true internal variability (see Section 2), this finding would appear to be robust. ...
CLIMATIC CHANGE IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS: A REVIEW OF
... high-resolution simulation for the limited time span of the selected time window over a given geographical area. The nested modeling approach represents a tradeoff between decadal- or century-scale, high resolution simulations that are today unattainable, even with currently-available computational ...
... high-resolution simulation for the limited time span of the selected time window over a given geographical area. The nested modeling approach represents a tradeoff between decadal- or century-scale, high resolution simulations that are today unattainable, even with currently-available computational ...
Review of Climate Change Adaptation Plan and Policies in Nepal
... emission reduction targets and means of implementation. The Bali Action Plan identifies four key elements: mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology. The Plan also contains a nonexhaustive list of issues to be considered under each of these areas and calls for articulating a “shared vision for ...
... emission reduction targets and means of implementation. The Bali Action Plan identifies four key elements: mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology. The Plan also contains a nonexhaustive list of issues to be considered under each of these areas and calls for articulating a “shared vision for ...
04 Morlot.P65
... Höhne, 2003; Metz et al., 2002; Berk et al., 2002), while others remain more sceptical (e.g. Pershing and Tudela, 2003). However, much of the research community, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in particular, has avoided getting into this area, noting that it is the work of policym ...
... Höhne, 2003; Metz et al., 2002; Berk et al., 2002), while others remain more sceptical (e.g. Pershing and Tudela, 2003). However, much of the research community, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in particular, has avoided getting into this area, noting that it is the work of policym ...
Climate change and water in the UK – past
... and Dessai, 2010) or robust decision-making (Lempert et al., 2006), they need a plausible range of context-relevant futures against which they can test solutions (Adger et al., 2009). This paper aims to synthesize the available research on the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the water envi ...
... and Dessai, 2010) or robust decision-making (Lempert et al., 2006), they need a plausible range of context-relevant futures against which they can test solutions (Adger et al., 2009). This paper aims to synthesize the available research on the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the water envi ...
Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest
... precipitation across much of the region by an average of 20–40% relative to observed seasonal averages for 1961–1990. In particular, HadCM3 over-estimates winter precipitation over the western (and drier) part of the region by up to 100%. Although these biases are non-trivial, it must be noted that ...
... precipitation across much of the region by an average of 20–40% relative to observed seasonal averages for 1961–1990. In particular, HadCM3 over-estimates winter precipitation over the western (and drier) part of the region by up to 100%. Although these biases are non-trivial, it must be noted that ...
Managing for climate change on federal lands of the western United
... Managing for climate change on federal lands of the western United States: perceived usefulness of climate science, effectiveness of adaptation strategies, and barriers to implementation Kerry B. Kemp 1, Jarod J. Blades 2, P. Zion Klos 1, Troy E. Hall 3, Jo Ellen Force 1, Penelope Morgan 1 and Wade ...
... Managing for climate change on federal lands of the western United States: perceived usefulness of climate science, effectiveness of adaptation strategies, and barriers to implementation Kerry B. Kemp 1, Jarod J. Blades 2, P. Zion Klos 1, Troy E. Hall 3, Jo Ellen Force 1, Penelope Morgan 1 and Wade ...
FFESCsynthesisJune7 - Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural
... risk. Thus a large part of the scientific and management enterprise involves activities that improve the ability of scientists, managers and others to describe and quantify uncertainty and risk. These methods are somewhat generic and can be applied to all stages of the adaptation process. One import ...
... risk. Thus a large part of the scientific and management enterprise involves activities that improve the ability of scientists, managers and others to describe and quantify uncertainty and risk. These methods are somewhat generic and can be applied to all stages of the adaptation process. One import ...
Robust Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis of Climate System Properties
... sets of prior distributions and sets of likelihood functions are considered. Then upper and lower expectations of quantities of interest are computed (Wasserman and Kadane 1992). The range of these expectations provides a measure of robustness of the statistical analysis [see Berliner et al. (2000) ...
... sets of prior distributions and sets of likelihood functions are considered. Then upper and lower expectations of quantities of interest are computed (Wasserman and Kadane 1992). The range of these expectations provides a measure of robustness of the statistical analysis [see Berliner et al. (2000) ...
4b. GCOS-indicators_WDAC6 - World Climate Research Programme
... Ø Planning for adaptation needs an understanding of future risk and how it may change: What would a one in a hundred-year storm look like in 100 years’ time? Ø Planning for future impacts needs an understanding now of worst-case scenarios, e.g. highest possible sea level rise, largest flood or big ...
... Ø Planning for adaptation needs an understanding of future risk and how it may change: What would a one in a hundred-year storm look like in 100 years’ time? Ø Planning for future impacts needs an understanding now of worst-case scenarios, e.g. highest possible sea level rise, largest flood or big ...
Slide 1
... models every 10 years. • Still would take many decades to get to 110km global modelling. • Bottom line will need to parameterize processes for many decades to come. ...
... models every 10 years. • Still would take many decades to get to 110km global modelling. • Bottom line will need to parameterize processes for many decades to come. ...
Landscaping climate change: a mapping technique for
... In determining the constitution of scientific knowledge or the construction of technology, science and technology scholars have benefited from notions of archaeology—the deeper mangles to be discovered upon deconstruction of sets of knowledge claims.22 Since the anthropological and cultural turn, sc ...
... In determining the constitution of scientific knowledge or the construction of technology, science and technology scholars have benefited from notions of archaeology—the deeper mangles to be discovered upon deconstruction of sets of knowledge claims.22 Since the anthropological and cultural turn, sc ...
Downloadable Full Text - DSpace@MIT
... 1994). In addition, field experiments (Sevruk 1982) dependence of extremes in trend analyses. The choice and theoretical results (Folland 1988) show that gauge of metrics often involves a trade-off between the desire undercatch is not substantial in very heavy rainfall. to examine trends in the low- ...
... 1994). In addition, field experiments (Sevruk 1982) dependence of extremes in trend analyses. The choice and theoretical results (Folland 1988) show that gauge of metrics often involves a trade-off between the desire undercatch is not substantial in very heavy rainfall. to examine trends in the low- ...
Key lessons from practitioners` experiences
... The Adaptation Good Practice project was undertaken by D. Rissik and N. Reis from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. © Commonwealth of Australia (Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education) 2013. ISBN 978-0-9922765-6-0. This wo ...
... The Adaptation Good Practice project was undertaken by D. Rissik and N. Reis from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. © Commonwealth of Australia (Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education) 2013. ISBN 978-0-9922765-6-0. This wo ...
AFGHANISTAN: CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PERSPECTIVES
... with most significant agriculture (East, Central Highlands, and North) are affected by the decrease in spring precipitation. Figures 8, 9, and 10 show the trends in detail for these regions, with the strongest decrease in the Central Highlands of almost 40% from 1950 until 2010. In the Hindukush and ...
... with most significant agriculture (East, Central Highlands, and North) are affected by the decrease in spring precipitation. Figures 8, 9, and 10 show the trends in detail for these regions, with the strongest decrease in the Central Highlands of almost 40% from 1950 until 2010. In the Hindukush and ...
Link to Chapter 5
... climate change as ”…any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity” (Pew Center on Global Climate Change). Climate change scenarios run by peer reviewed scientific research suggests that if current ...
... climate change as ”…any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity” (Pew Center on Global Climate Change). Climate change scenarios run by peer reviewed scientific research suggests that if current ...
Two Kinds of Climate Justice: Avoiding Harm and Sharing Burdens
... interpreted. In what follows I shall assume, in the first instance, that when they say that a treaty is feasible they mean that it is possible for agents (in this case, governments) to comply with it (interpretation (i)). Later on, I consider interpretations (ii) and (iii). Whichever interpretation ...
... interpreted. In what follows I shall assume, in the first instance, that when they say that a treaty is feasible they mean that it is possible for agents (in this case, governments) to comply with it (interpretation (i)). Later on, I consider interpretations (ii) and (iii). Whichever interpretation ...
Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Water Resources Variability
... For instance, the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis Canada (CCCMA), Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) is resolved at a spatial resolution of 3.75◦ longitude by 3.7◦ latitude; the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research HadCM3 model is resolved at a spatial resolution of ...
... For instance, the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis Canada (CCCMA), Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) is resolved at a spatial resolution of 3.75◦ longitude by 3.7◦ latitude; the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research HadCM3 model is resolved at a spatial resolution of ...
the journal Nature Climate Change
... transport more moisture poleward15. Over tropical oceans, the wetgets-wetter pattern is realized in atmospheric models in the idealized case where sea surface warming is spatially uniform (Fig. 2a). Spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) changes affect tropical convection. Fast equatorial ...
... transport more moisture poleward15. Over tropical oceans, the wetgets-wetter pattern is realized in atmospheric models in the idealized case where sea surface warming is spatially uniform (Fig. 2a). Spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) changes affect tropical convection. Fast equatorial ...