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1.4.1. larger transient classes. Last time I explained (Theorem 1.12
1.4.1. larger transient classes. Last time I explained (Theorem 1.12

... If n5 is the last time that you succeed, it means that, after that point in time, you try over and over infinitely many times and fail each time. This has probability zero by the theorem. So, P(only finitely many successes) = 0. But, the number of successes is either finite or infinite. So, P(infini ...
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

... P (H) is higher than P(HJE), then even if P(HJE) is high, E will be evidence against H and so the effect of combining two such evidence statements, when they are conditionally independent, is to even further lower the posterior probability of H. Dempster's rule also diverges from probabilistic logic ...
Powerpoint
Powerpoint

For Questions 1-3 use the following information. Set S
For Questions 1-3 use the following information. Set S

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random numbers generation

... The use and generation of random numbers uniformly distributed over the unit interval: [0, 1] is a unique feature of the Monte Carlo method. These are used as building blocks for constructing and sampling probability density functions that represent any of the processes or phenomena that are under i ...
Algebra 2 Notes
Algebra 2 Notes

... If A and B are any two events, then the probability of A or B is: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B) If A and B are disjoint events, then the probability of A or B is: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) ...
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Counting

... • There are n2 possible values of (ik, dk) • So there must be k and j, k < j, with ik = ij and dk = dj • This is a contradiction: – If ak < al al then ik > ij (start at ak and continue with the longest ...
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Occupancy with two types of balls

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... because the traditional mathematics (both standard and non-standard versions of Analysis) can speak only about limit fractal objects and the required values tend to zero or infinity. Let us consider, for example, the famous Cantor’s set (see Fig. 1). If a finite number of steps, n, has been done in ...
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... Any element x of S has specific, finite position in list. Z = {0, 1, − 1, 2, − 2, . . . ..} Z = {{0, 1, 2, . . . , } and then {−1, −2, . . .}} When do you get to −1? at infinity? Need to be careful. ...
CONDITIONAL EXPECTATION Definition 1. Let (Ω,F,P) be a
CONDITIONAL EXPECTATION Definition 1. Let (Ω,F,P) be a

... Although it is short and elegant, the preceding proof relies on a deep theorem, the RadonNikodym theorem. In fact, the use of the Radon-Nikodym theorem is superfluous; the fact that every L 1 random variable can be arbitrarily approximated by L 2 random variables makes it possible to construct a sol ...
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22c:145 Artificial Intelligence Fall 2005 Uncertainty

... A joint probability distribution P(X1 , . . . , Xn ) provides complete information about the probabilities of its random variables. However, JPD’s are often hard to create (again because of incomplete knowledge of the domain). Even when available, JPD tables are very expensive, or impossible, to sto ...
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lect2m

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CONDITIONAL EXPECTATION Definition 1. Let (Ω,F,P) be a

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Lecture 17: The Law of Large Numbers and the Monte

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Bayes law. Sensitivity, specificity.

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CS151 Spring 2010 Lecture 12

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chapter 14 slides

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From Randomness to Probability

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Solutions

... if a > b then return 1 The algorithm calls B IASED -R ANDOM twice to get two random numbers A and B. It repeats this until A 6= B. Then, depending on whether A < B (that is, A = 0 and B = 1) or A > B (that is, A = 1 and B = 0) it returns 0 or 1 respectively. In any iteration, we have Pr(A < B) = p(1 ...
Intro to probability Powerpoint
Intro to probability Powerpoint

... The LLN says nothing about short-run behavior. Relative frequencies even out only in the long run, and this long run is really long (infinitely long, in fact). The so called Law of Averages (that an outcome of a random event that hasn’t occurred in many trials is “due” to occur) doesn’t exist at all ...
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Infinite monkey theorem



The infinite monkey theorem states that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type a given text, such as the complete works of William Shakespeare.In this context, ""almost surely"" is a mathematical term with a precise meaning, and the ""monkey"" is not an actual monkey, but a metaphor for an abstract device that produces an endless random sequence of letters and symbols. One of the earliest instances of the use of the ""monkey metaphor"" is that of French mathematician Émile Borel in 1913, but the first instance may be even earlier. The relevance of the theorem is questionable—the probability of a universe full of monkeys typing a complete work such as Shakespeare's Hamlet is so tiny that the chance of it occurring during a period of time hundreds of thousands of orders of magnitude longer than the age of the universe is extremely low (but technically not zero). It should also be noted that real monkeys don't produce uniformly random output, which means that an actual monkey hitting keys for an infinite amount of time has no statistical certainty of ever producing any given text.Variants of the theorem include multiple and even infinitely many typists, and the target text varies between an entire library and a single sentence. The history of these statements can be traced back to Aristotle's On Generation and Corruption and Cicero's De natura deorum (On the Nature of the Gods), through Blaise Pascal and Jonathan Swift, and finally to modern statements with their iconic simians and typewriters. In the early 20th century, Émile Borel and Arthur Eddington used the theorem to illustrate the timescales implicit in the foundations of statistical mechanics.
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