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The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth

... the most up-to-date research on what is causing them. The contributions from natural factors, such as volcanic eruptions, fluctuations in the amount of the Sun’s energy reaching the Earth’s surface or the exchange of energy between the oceans and atmosphere, are included and evaluated. The effects o ...
Climate trends in San Antonio - San Antonio Sustainability Plan
Climate trends in San Antonio - San Antonio Sustainability Plan

... the  decade  before,  and  2014  was  the  warmest  year  on  record  to  date.  Although  1.5oF  may  not  sound   like  much,  over  the  course  of  western  civilization  the  Earth’s  temperature  has  been  as  stable  as  tha ...
Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?
Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

... both of which have been shown to be capable of amplifying solar irradiance forcing by modulation of both the amount and distribution of upward-propagating planetary waves which then cause signi®cant changes to the circulation patterns of the low and middle atmospheres (see also Arnold and Robinson, ...
5.1 Public Health Annual Report 2014
5.1 Public Health Annual Report 2014

... Develop joint infrastructure and services across agencies, particularly in relation to transport, catering, procurement and use of renewable energy sources Reducing fuel poverty through reducing fuel costs as well as improving energy efficiency Raising awareness of the changing natural environment t ...
ppt - International Association for the Advancement of Innovative
ppt - International Association for the Advancement of Innovative

... Physics of Weather and Climate Section • established at ICTP in 1998. Objectives: • to carry out research and educational activities in the physics of the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface processes; and • to make climate models available and provide the know-how of their use to the scientific com ...
Predicting Climate Change Impacts: Regional
Predicting Climate Change Impacts: Regional

... them to analyses of observations. With his team of students and research associates, Professor Laprise has developed recently a detailed energy budget formulation that allows evaluating the various energy transformations taking place in weather storms, and how these will change in a warmer climate. ...
lecture20erk - UA Atmospheric Sciences
lecture20erk - UA Atmospheric Sciences

... Continental temperatures rise faster than ocean temperatures – Water has much larger heat capacity than land – Evaporation cools the ocean surface • Ocean temperatures take long time to reach a new equilibrium 1. Warming we have seen thus far is NOT the total warming even if GHG concentrations stop ...
Debate The Midas Effect: A Critique of Climate Change Economics
Debate The Midas Effect: A Critique of Climate Change Economics

... The critical issue that clearly arises here is the unworldliness (in the sense of ecological blinders) of received economics and of the capitalist system it serves. In order to find an appropriate comparison one has to enter the misty realm of mythology. Indeed, the characteristic relation of orthod ...
Towards a definition of climate science Valerio Lucarini*
Towards a definition of climate science Valerio Lucarini*

... a large natural variability on different temporal scales that would cause non-trivial difficulties in detecting trends in statistically relevant terms, even if the observational data were absolutely precise. The actual situation is much more problematic because even for the atmosphere, which is the ...
Abstract_Mary_Nthambi Full Abstract
Abstract_Mary_Nthambi Full Abstract

... production costs as a percentage of total revenues. The assumption made in this study is, the costs of production of the new farming practices are implementation costs incurred by farmers in facing climate change shocks. Costs will be discounted to adjust for inflationary effects. Cereals will be co ...
08-jones.pps2011-07-12 00:58847 KB - Asia
08-jones.pps2011-07-12 00:58847 KB - Asia

... • Adaptation increases the coping range through biological and social means • Mitigation reduces the magnitude and frequency of greenhouse-related climate hazards Therefore, they are complementary, not interchangeable. They also reduce different areas of climate uncertainty Atmospheric Research ...
Society`s Grand Challenges - American Psychological Association
Society`s Grand Challenges - American Psychological Association

... of our best hopes for a solution. Whether the goal is to reduce carbon emissions or to help vulnerable populations deal with rising sea levels and changing weather patterns, it is clear that values, beliefs, thoughts, and social relationships are key. According to the 2007 report of the Intergovernm ...
Climate Change and its Impact on Agriculture
Climate Change and its Impact on Agriculture

... Earth) over a significant period of time. It is about non-normal variations to the climate, and the effects of these variations on other parts of the Earth. These changes may take tens, hundreds or perhaps millions of year. But increased in anthropogenic activities such as industrialization, urbaniz ...
Written Testimony for the House Committee on Science, Space, and... Hearing on “Examining the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...
Written Testimony for the House Committee on Science, Space, and... Hearing on “Examining the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...

... and ocean circulation features away from what they would be in the natural climate system. While the greenhouse and aerosol emissions, in particular, have resulted in changes to the global average radiative forcings, the use of a global averaged radiative forcing or a global average surface temperat ...
December`s guide in d
December`s guide in d

... Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute comments: “The grain required to fill a 25-gallon SUV tank with ethanol would feed one person for a year. Corn used in the US to distil ethanol has tripled in 5 years, to the extent that livestock and poultry farmers fear there may not be enough corn to pro ...
File - The Atmospheric Vortex Engine
File - The Atmospheric Vortex Engine

... during the 1990s (30), but the decadal rainfall was still less than normal. During 2001–2004, two droughts have already occurred, and the average rainfall for this decade so far is 9% below normal. These negative trends lead us to speculate whether the ABC is indeed appearing to show its impact as g ...
my palaeo-climate research
my palaeo-climate research

... period to determine the role played by silicate weathering. Their work suggests that this event was triggered by high levels of CO2 emissions from volcanic activity which led to rapid global warming. As temperatures increased, so did the rate of weathering; in fact, Strandmann estimates that within ...
The "debate" about climate change
The "debate" about climate change

... change, then–EPA administrator Christine a fair summary of professional scientific Whitman argued, “As [the report] went thinking, and answers yes: “The IPCC’s through review, there conclusion that most of the was less consensus on Without substantial disagreement, observed warming of the the scienc ...
1.2 Development planning and climate change in Egypt
1.2 Development planning and climate change in Egypt

... According to SNC-2010 & IPCC 4th AR: • A global sea level rise of 18-59 cm is expected by the end of this century, based on the prevailing scenario. •The vulnerable areas that will be affected by Sea level rise under two modules. : •The first case assumed zero levels for lake borders, •While the sec ...
Is the Earth still recovering from the “Little Ice Age”?
Is the Earth still recovering from the “Little Ice Age”?

... Thus, there is a possibility that both increases are natural changes, unless it can be shown definitely that such regional changes are caused by the greenhouse effect. ...
Effects of Global Warming on the Hydrologic Cycle
Effects of Global Warming on the Hydrologic Cycle

... • Current locations with low runoff will get lower; high runoff will get higher • Areas of high runoff will shrink with climate change • More extreme droughts and floods ...
full-book-review - Institute for Environmental Entrepreneurship
full-book-review - Institute for Environmental Entrepreneurship

... discussing a one-off issue unless it is very clearly part of a longer term global climatic pattern that can be explained by sound scientific theory and research. Thus, the authors talk about climate change and its effects on similar time scales with few exceptions. In Eaarth, Bill McKibben focuses o ...
The Myth of the 97% Consensus
The Myth of the 97% Consensus

... asking" I meant that we have been over and over many versions of the same questions, looking for the most neutral wording, so it becomes difficult to look at each question though fresh eyes and see where the issues might be. This entire process has been an exercise in re-educating myself about the c ...
Climate change and environment
Climate change and environment

... tN2/year, more than effects from all natural processes combined • About 20 million t P mined/year–8x natural background rate of influx • Surface ocean pH has decreased about 0.1 units since pre-industrial times – 100x than any other time in the last 20 million years ...
Journal Club Phenotypic Plasticity, SS 2015
Journal Club Phenotypic Plasticity, SS 2015

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Attribution of recent climate change



Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent changes observed in the Earth's climate, commonly known as 'global warming'. The effort has focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record, when records are most reliable; particularly in the last 50 years, when human activity has grown fastest and observations of the troposphere have become available. The dominant mechanisms (to which recent climate change has been attributed) are anthropogenic, i.e., the result of human activity. They are: increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases global changes to land surface, such as deforestation increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols.There are also natural mechanisms for variation including climate oscillations, changes in solar activity, and volcanic activity.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is ""extremely likely"" that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951 and 2010. The IPCC defines ""extremely likely"" as indicating a probability of 95 to 100%, based on an expert assessment of all the available evidence.Multiple lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities: A basic physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established. Historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual. Computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included. Natural forces alone (such as solar and volcanic activity) cannot explain the observed warming.The IPCC's attribution of recent global warming to human activities is a view shared by most scientists, and is also supported by 196 other scientific organizations worldwide (see also: scientific opinion on climate change).
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