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Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts
Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts

... observable quantities that, on the basis of the evidence available, the model appears capable of simulating for at least some settings of the parameters Θ; M2, metrics in which the individual contributions to r2 from different observation-types are renormalized by the error in the best available (or ...
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PDF

... tourism, forestry, fisheries, extreme events, energy supply; Ciscar, (2009) on sealevel rise, agriculture, tourism, river floods). ...
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Probability in the attribution and prediction of climate change

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Cambodia - Climate Change Knowledge Portal
Cambodia - Climate Change Knowledge Portal

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Confronting Climate Change in California
Confronting Climate Change in California

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Oxford College - Campus | Oxford Learning College
Oxford College - Campus | Oxford Learning College

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Climate Topline Mess.. - The Regeneration Project
Climate Topline Mess.. - The Regeneration Project

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Sustainable Enterprise
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Publication - World Vision International
Publication - World Vision International

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Sample Multiple Choice Test Items by Strand and
Sample Multiple Choice Test Items by Strand and

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RELEVANT, IMMEDIATE, LOCAL: GUIDE TO
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hamlet_poster_PACLIM_apr_2003
hamlet_poster_PACLIM_apr_2003

... substantially different responses to regional warming and the changes in precipitation projected by the scenarios. The most sensitive to warming are the ski areas influenced by the maritime climate west of the Cascades and at moderate elevations (e.g. Snoqualmie Pass and Stevens Pass). Areas with co ...
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Risks, opportunities, and adaptation to climate change
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... average precipitation over land has increased 1% during the 20th century, and average sea level has risen 10 to 25 cm (IPCC 1996a). The character of rainfall also may be changing. For example, the area of the United States that has been affected by extreme rainfall events (i.e. at least 5 cm d–1) ha ...
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The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and
The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and

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1B: Follow the Energy! Earth`s Dynamic Climate System
1B: Follow the Energy! Earth`s Dynamic Climate System

... Climate responds directly to these changes, and indirectly through numerous feedback mechanisms. Solar radiation intercepted and absorbed by Earth drives our planet’s climate system. Earth responds to this acquired energy through the emission of long-wave infrared radiation (IR) as its climate syst ...
Print - Climate Change Knowledge Portal
Print - Climate Change Knowledge Portal

... There is no clear trend in precipitation changes at the national level, but a greater inclination toward decline in rainfall has been observed, especially on the coast. Increasing trend of rising temperature in water basins has been observed. The rural coastal zone does not show any clear positive t ...
FROM THE HARPOON TO THE HEATEAT
FROM THE HARPOON TO THE HEATEAT

... temperatures when a portion of this radiation is reflected back to the Earth’s surface, the phenomenon known as “radiative forcing.”14 Climate researchers have concluded that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are responsible for the increase in average global temperatures of about 0.6º C ...
Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the
Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the

... filter, which has more impact at higher percentiles due to the wider spread of data on the log-scale (this is appropriate given the lower sampling at higher percentiles). The right hand y-axis of Fig. 3 represents the percentage change in the intensity of the heaviest precipitation events in the mod ...
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Attribution of recent climate change



Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent changes observed in the Earth's climate, commonly known as 'global warming'. The effort has focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record, when records are most reliable; particularly in the last 50 years, when human activity has grown fastest and observations of the troposphere have become available. The dominant mechanisms (to which recent climate change has been attributed) are anthropogenic, i.e., the result of human activity. They are: increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases global changes to land surface, such as deforestation increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols.There are also natural mechanisms for variation including climate oscillations, changes in solar activity, and volcanic activity.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is ""extremely likely"" that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951 and 2010. The IPCC defines ""extremely likely"" as indicating a probability of 95 to 100%, based on an expert assessment of all the available evidence.Multiple lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities: A basic physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established. Historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual. Computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included. Natural forces alone (such as solar and volcanic activity) cannot explain the observed warming.The IPCC's attribution of recent global warming to human activities is a view shared by most scientists, and is also supported by 196 other scientific organizations worldwide (see also: scientific opinion on climate change).
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