NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES AMBIGUITY AND CLIMATE POLICY Antony Millner Simon Dietz
... knowledge of the climate system is not very high quality, there would seem to be good reason to develop approaches to policy evaluation which account for uncertainty and not just risk, since these will either justify our reliance on existing methods, or provide appropriate tools for future work. Wh ...
... knowledge of the climate system is not very high quality, there would seem to be good reason to develop approaches to policy evaluation which account for uncertainty and not just risk, since these will either justify our reliance on existing methods, or provide appropriate tools for future work. Wh ...
Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen
... 1% chance of having a flood higher than 150 cm every year. This analysis uses local sea level data (1890 to 2007) provided by the Danish Coastal Authority1 (Kystdirektoratet) and produced by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The data set contains 256 events during which water level was at l ...
... 1% chance of having a flood higher than 150 cm every year. This analysis uses local sea level data (1890 to 2007) provided by the Danish Coastal Authority1 (Kystdirektoratet) and produced by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The data set contains 256 events during which water level was at l ...
Climate Change and Switzerland 2050
... (CH2050) deals with these questions. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 and 2007 reports serve as the scientific basis. The research reports available today with their scientific data and facts prove what has been evident for years: With a probability of more than 90 per cent, ...
... (CH2050) deals with these questions. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 and 2007 reports serve as the scientific basis. The research reports available today with their scientific data and facts prove what has been evident for years: With a probability of more than 90 per cent, ...
LIFE and Climate change mitigation
... Directive;4 a framework for carbon capture and storage; and a decision governing the inclusion of remissions and removals related to Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) into the EU’s climate policy. Energy-efficiency is addressed through the 2011 Energy-efficiency Plan and the Energy-eff ...
... Directive;4 a framework for carbon capture and storage; and a decision governing the inclusion of remissions and removals related to Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) into the EU’s climate policy. Energy-efficiency is addressed through the 2011 Energy-efficiency Plan and the Energy-eff ...
Flammable Planet - The Cost of Carbon Pollution
... While the interaction of forest and wildfire dynamics often increases fire risks, climate change could also decrease certain risks. An increased CO2 fertilization effect will increase the level and rate of growth of woody plants in savanna ecosystems, such that they are more likely to escape low-lyi ...
... While the interaction of forest and wildfire dynamics often increases fire risks, climate change could also decrease certain risks. An increased CO2 fertilization effect will increase the level and rate of growth of woody plants in savanna ecosystems, such that they are more likely to escape low-lyi ...
Draft Findings of the Ad Hoc Technical expert group
... While ecosystems are generally more carbon dense and biologically more diverse in their natural state, the degradation of many ecosystems is significantly reducing their carbon storage and sequestration potential, leading to increases in emissions of greenhouse gases and loss of biodiversity at the ...
... While ecosystems are generally more carbon dense and biologically more diverse in their natural state, the degradation of many ecosystems is significantly reducing their carbon storage and sequestration potential, leading to increases in emissions of greenhouse gases and loss of biodiversity at the ...
On welfare frameworks and catastrophic climate risks
... dismal theorem states that the evaluation of climate change policy is highly sensitive to catastrophic outcomes, even if they occur with vanishingly small, but ‘fat-tailed’1 , probability. The dismal theorem suggests that such fat-tailed risks are an inescapable consequence of bayesian statistics, a ...
... dismal theorem states that the evaluation of climate change policy is highly sensitive to catastrophic outcomes, even if they occur with vanishingly small, but ‘fat-tailed’1 , probability. The dismal theorem suggests that such fat-tailed risks are an inescapable consequence of bayesian statistics, a ...
The climate of the UK and recent trends
... The internal variability of climate can be important on decadal timescales; for example Knight et al. (2005) claim that the warming event around 1940 may be caused by the northern hemispheric effects of a temporary strengthening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Comparisons between obs ...
... The internal variability of climate can be important on decadal timescales; for example Knight et al. (2005) claim that the warming event around 1940 may be caused by the northern hemispheric effects of a temporary strengthening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Comparisons between obs ...
Australia – Vietnam Climate Change Delivery Strategy 2011
... Vulnerability to climate change and its impacts Climate change poses a serious threat for Vietnam. It threatens to destabilise economic growth, exacerbate food shortages and erode recent gains in poverty reduction – all of which can negatively impact progress towards achieving the Millennium Develop ...
... Vulnerability to climate change and its impacts Climate change poses a serious threat for Vietnam. It threatens to destabilise economic growth, exacerbate food shortages and erode recent gains in poverty reduction – all of which can negatively impact progress towards achieving the Millennium Develop ...
Behaviour Change - Appendix B
... Summary Findings for National/International Opinion Leaders The level of uncertainty with which climate experts work is such that their predictions would be regarded as worthless in most other areas of science or engineering. This creates a major credibility problem; policy-makers, and even more so ...
... Summary Findings for National/International Opinion Leaders The level of uncertainty with which climate experts work is such that their predictions would be regarded as worthless in most other areas of science or engineering. This creates a major credibility problem; policy-makers, and even more so ...
- Wiley Online Library
... the dependence increased trend uncertainty by about 50%. If we should increase the error bars in Figure 1 by 50%, they would still be small compared with the year-to-year fluctuations seen, and we may believe that these year-toyear fluctuations are real geophysical changes and not just measurement unc ...
... the dependence increased trend uncertainty by about 50%. If we should increase the error bars in Figure 1 by 50%, they would still be small compared with the year-to-year fluctuations seen, and we may believe that these year-toyear fluctuations are real geophysical changes and not just measurement unc ...
Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee
... mean projected local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species on average. While our results suggest that the area suitable for both Arabica and Robusta cultivation will be sufficient under some climate change scenarios to match future expected demand, there will be regional shifts in the globa ...
... mean projected local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species on average. While our results suggest that the area suitable for both Arabica and Robusta cultivation will be sufficient under some climate change scenarios to match future expected demand, there will be regional shifts in the globa ...
CONFALONIERI 2007 Human Health
... the margins of the current distribution of diseases might be particularly affected. • Climate change represents an additional pressure on the world’s food supply system and is expected to increase yields at higher latitudes and decrease yields at lower latitudes. This would increase the number of un ...
... the margins of the current distribution of diseases might be particularly affected. • Climate change represents an additional pressure on the world’s food supply system and is expected to increase yields at higher latitudes and decrease yields at lower latitudes. This would increase the number of un ...
does adaptation to climate change provide food security?
... how farm households’ decision to adapt, that is to implement a set of strategies (e.g., changing crop varieties, adoption of soil and water conservation strategies) in response to long run changes in key climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall, affects food crop productivity in Ethiopia. ...
... how farm households’ decision to adapt, that is to implement a set of strategies (e.g., changing crop varieties, adoption of soil and water conservation strategies) in response to long run changes in key climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall, affects food crop productivity in Ethiopia. ...
Building bridges: Supporting adaptation in industry VCCAR think
... one quarter of the nation's GDP.1 Ensuring long-term economic sustainability requires that overall productivity is maintained and that key industry sectors continue to grow. Understanding how this can be achieved on a sector-by-sector basis, requires an appreciation of the changing threats and oppor ...
... one quarter of the nation's GDP.1 Ensuring long-term economic sustainability requires that overall productivity is maintained and that key industry sectors continue to grow. Understanding how this can be achieved on a sector-by-sector basis, requires an appreciation of the changing threats and oppor ...
global climate change and health – a new theme for research in
... air pollution in Sweden may be related to climate change not only in Sweden, but also in parts of Europe south of Sweden. Social changes caused by global climate change can also influence public health in Sweden, for instance through an increased number of refugees from tropical countries that have ...
... air pollution in Sweden may be related to climate change not only in Sweden, but also in parts of Europe south of Sweden. Social changes caused by global climate change can also influence public health in Sweden, for instance through an increased number of refugees from tropical countries that have ...
PDF
... It should be acknowledged that the main findings on coalition stability are subject to a number of limitations. Although the results are reasonably robust to the alternative damage and discounting assumptions, there are also wide uncertainties surrounding more distant climate impacts (beyond the 210 ...
... It should be acknowledged that the main findings on coalition stability are subject to a number of limitations. Although the results are reasonably robust to the alternative damage and discounting assumptions, there are also wide uncertainties surrounding more distant climate impacts (beyond the 210 ...
ocean fertilization
... Fertilization experiments have been highly valuable for the study of the dynamics and functioning of ocean ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, but it is unlikely that individual ...
... Fertilization experiments have been highly valuable for the study of the dynamics and functioning of ocean ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, but it is unlikely that individual ...
Media Echo
... Climate change is altering mountain vegetation at large scale Climate change is having a more profound effect on alpine vegetation than at first anticipated, according to a study carried out by an international group of researchers and published in Nature Climate Change. The first ever pan-European ...
... Climate change is altering mountain vegetation at large scale Climate change is having a more profound effect on alpine vegetation than at first anticipated, according to a study carried out by an international group of researchers and published in Nature Climate Change. The first ever pan-European ...
Global environmental problems and politics
... Understanding business and the global environment..................................................... 82 Economically liberal approaches to international business and environment................... 83 Critical views of business and environment........................................................ ...
... Understanding business and the global environment..................................................... 82 Economically liberal approaches to international business and environment................... 83 Critical views of business and environment........................................................ ...
the student presentation
... If analogous to Eemian: Ice cap growth should precede Sea level fall has not begun Interglacial will last more than several kyrs From Broecker and Stocker (2006) ...
... If analogous to Eemian: Ice cap growth should precede Sea level fall has not begun Interglacial will last more than several kyrs From Broecker and Stocker (2006) ...
climate variability and change in canada
... peak flows (high confidence), reduction in summer flows (medium confidence) and reduced lake levels and outflows for the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence under most scenarios (medium confidence); adaptive responses would offset some, but not all, of the impacts on water users and on aquatic ecosystems (medi ...
... peak flows (high confidence), reduction in summer flows (medium confidence) and reduced lake levels and outflows for the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence under most scenarios (medium confidence); adaptive responses would offset some, but not all, of the impacts on water users and on aquatic ecosystems (medi ...
Population and climate change scoping paper
... those most vulnerable to the effects of climate change are those living in the developing world. Rapid population growth has a negative Impact on the ability of communities and countries to adapt to climate change, particularly if they are poor. It has also been identified by many developing countri ...
... those most vulnerable to the effects of climate change are those living in the developing world. Rapid population growth has a negative Impact on the ability of communities and countries to adapt to climate change, particularly if they are poor. It has also been identified by many developing countri ...
Climate change feedback
Climate change feedback is important in the understanding of global warming because feedback processes may amplify or diminish the effect of each climate forcing, and so play an important part in determining the climate sensitivity and future climate state. Feedback in general is the process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity while negative feedback reduces it.The term ""forcing"" means a change which may ""push"" the climate system in the direction of warming or cooling. An example of a climate forcing is increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. By definition, forcings are external to the climate system while feedbacks are internal; in essence, feedbacks represent the internal processes of the system. Some feedbacks may act in relative isolation to the rest of the climate system; others may be tightly coupled; hence it may be difficult to tell just how much a particular process contributes. Forcings, feedbacks and the dynamics of the climate system determine how much and how fast the climate changes. The main positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, which in turn leads to further warming. The main negative feedback comes from the Stefan–Boltzmann law, the amount of heat radiated from the Earth into space changes with the fourth power of the temperature of Earth's surface and atmosphere.Some observed and potential effects of global warming are positive feedbacks, which contribute directly to further global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report states that ""Anthropogenic warming could lead to some effects that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change.""